EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 137
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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schaf
Germany1326 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States46473 Posts
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Velr
Switzerland10958 Posts
I wonder, how does it feel in the us? My personal experience in switzerland: "lockdown" since 4 Weeks now. Which means everything is closed aside from general food stores. For everyone that isn't working with direct customer contact business just goes on. Office jobs were, in record time, made ready for home office (which i do now 4/5 days a week), it's kinda strange but I kinda welcome the acceleration of the process that would or should have happened anyway (not to that extent, but some). People working in industry? Basically business as usual and in some cases overtime a go go because they do medical supplies. There are plenty of issues for plenty of people from dimished hours to full stop of business but for ~7/10 people i know.. Work just goes on, a bit diffrent but well... Shit still has to be done. I doubt this is sustainable for years longer but atm? No issues with all that stuff. I really would love to go out again.. Concerts... CONCERTS... | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On April 25 2020 13:05 Velr wrote: It's quite staggering how the US is blowing record after record in this. I wonder, how does it feel in the us? My personal experience in switzerland: "lockdown" since 4 Weeks now. Which means everything is closed aside from general food stores. For everyone that isn't working with direct customer contact business just goes on. Office jobs were, in record time, made ready for home office (which i do now 4/5 days a week), it's kinda strange but I kinda welcome the acceleration of the process that would or should have happened anyway (not to that extent, but some). People working in industry? Basically business as usual and in some cases overtime a go go because they do medical supplies. There are plenty of issues for plenty of people from dimished hours to full stop of business but for ~7/10 people i know.. Work just goes on, a bit diffrent but well... Shit still has to be done. I doubt this is sustainable for years longer but atm? No issues with all that stuff. I really would love to go out again.. Concerts... CONCERTS... The way things look in the US would probably seem surreal by the standards of most countries with a sane government. Quite a lot of denialism / justfluism going around here, with conspiracy theories finding many followers. Everything is closed and those adversely impacted are largely just told to fend for themselves (some unemployment etc but many people slip through the cracks there as well). Last week there were widespread demonstrations against the "tyranny" of this lockdown. People for the most part don't really seem to care for the lockdown and are just congregating in places that are open - fast food, grocery stores, and especially parks. US has always had a broken medical system, and it doesn't seem like they're really intent on fixing this right now. The government response has been very much so, "oh no! the economy!" The US isn't the only country that handled this badly, and probably won't be the worst impacted (since a lot of countries are more vulnerable by virtue of being more politically/economically fragile), but I can't think of a nation in the developed world that has showcased more blatant incompetence in their handling of this than the US has. Pretty sure it has topped the Iranian health minister incident in sheer absurdity by now. And for that matter... at this point that "downward revised" estimate from the administration of 60k deaths in the US seems clearly wrong. The original 120-200k seems much more in line right now. It doesn't really look like the case load is dropping any time soon. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
Like, I know it's easy to spot the errors and terrible statements and lack of preparation. It's undeniable and pretty ridiculous in it's own right, and very open to criticism. And I have to say it because I know some people will deny that to get to some kind of prefab conclusion. So I'd advise a little more circumspect look besides standing, jaw dropped, at total number infected and bulk records broken in densely populated areas. I'd say this similar to the way we put qualifications on why Switzerland has ~20% higher deaths/100k compared to the US, and China has (officially) 95% less than Germany. It makes little sense to me to only cover-up the nuance (Big Numbers!!!) in one case and extend great considered weight in others. California has mostly flattened the growth curve. Most counties are in the linear increase range. Gov Newsom is allowing elective surgeries to resume in hospitals, thank god. Hopefully he'll steer things towards extensive random sampling to give a better idea of asymptomatic case spread and closer approximations of fatality rate. The testing capacity has been increasing very quickly. | ||
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TT1
Canada10085 Posts
It'll be interesting to see what happens come summertime.. | ||
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2891 Posts
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html It shows clearly just how hard it is to keep good statistics. However this is something that the experts should be expecting. In Sweden people had very high faith in the officials taking care of this before but it got dented because they kept saying that it looked good, the curve was flat and that they did not expect any big changes for older numbers several times over the past weeks (~60 deaths per day). Then those were revised up to 90 deaths per day. It's not the numbers themselves it's more that you expect experts to not make definitive statements about things that are very difficult to predict. Also still waiting for antibody tests promised like a month ago... (!) | ||
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Furikawari
France2522 Posts
On April 25 2020 17:01 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote: This is a very good article comparing reported numbers to excess deaths for 11 countries/cities. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html It shows clearly just how hard it is to keep good statistics. However this is something that the experts should be expecting. In Sweden people had very high faith in the officials taking care of this before but it got dented because they kept saying that it looked good, the curve was flat and that they did not expect any big changes for older numbers several times over the past weeks (~60 deaths per day). Then those were revised up to 90 deaths per day. It's not the numbers themselves it's more that you expect experts to not make definitive statements about things that are very difficult to predict. Also still waiting for antibody tests promised like a month ago... (!) Reports mean nothing anyway. Only when will have all the mortality numbers and compare tham to the expect death will we have the begining of an answer. In france it looks like (I saw the numbers but didnt spend a lot of time on it) depending on the place it's between +10% and +25% deaths. +10% compares with a "very aggressive flu" (my vocab here, dunno how to said that in english). 25% is never seen afaict. | ||
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Slydie
2007 Posts
On April 25 2020 17:10 Furikawari wrote: Reports mean nothing anyway. Only when will have all the mortality numbers and compare tham to the expect death will we have the begining of an answer. In france it looks like (I saw the numbers but didnt spend a lot of time on it) depending on the place it's between +10% and +25% deaths. +10% compares with a "very aggressive flu" (my vocab here, dunno how to said that in english). 25% is never seen afaict. If hospitals are overwhelmed, it indirecly affects a lot of patients without the virus. A NY-based colleague posted a desperate Facebook message about losing a friend because of the lack of respirators. Even the rescheduling of operations and "non essential" (how do you tell??) consultations is a health hazard, so the authorities have to be very careful what they are doing. | ||
opterown
Australia54784 Posts
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Garbels
Austria653 Posts
On April 25 2020 15:30 Danglars wrote: The overwhelming stress was pretty much NYC-localized, and practically everyone that needs hospital treatment can get hospital treatment. As we saw from case mortality that I quoted earlier, there isn't a nation in the west doing better besides Germany (and bravo for that). Actually there are a lot that do better(almost anyone). Someone just chose to not include them in the graph and pick those that do worse. Edit: To expand on that. The quote from https://tl.net/forum/general/556693-coronavirus-and-you?page=129#2564: On April 20 2020 06:47 Danglars wrote: Mortality (Case Fatality per 100,000) Belgium 45.2 Spain 42.81 Italy 37.64 France 27.92 UK 21.97 Netherlands 20.14 USA 11.24 Iran 6.06 Germany 5.25 China* 0.33 + Show Spoiler + (includes the recent Chinese government adjustment higher of Wuhan cases) US was at rank 9 of the worst hit by then if you exclude countrys under 200k population. Of the 8 worse of the graph included 6. Of the rest of the world not so badly hit the graph included 3. | ||
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Yurie
12172 Posts
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/UOieXw2.png) That is a pretty random selection of countries. The thing about it is that testing rate should be checked at the same time. Without using both of them it is a pretty pointless figure. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/pd7pbNd.png) There are other data that should be included on top of that. I'm not sure how to do the most nuanced check but total infected at one time per capita seems pretty relevant. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22611 Posts
On April 25 2020 19:23 opterown wrote: yeah, that is why I imagine the real numbers from covid is likely to lie a little higher then excess death statistics might indicate, because 'nominal' deaths are down due to lockdowns.well on the other hand, you also decrease the amount of homicides and motor vehicle accidents, other contagious illnesses etc, due to the social distancing, which might improve numbers a little. probably not enough to offset the sheer mortality of COVID, but it's an interesting thought. | ||
Firebolt145
Lalalaland34507 Posts
"There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection," the WHO said in a briefing note. Virus be weird, yo. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Antisocialmunky
United States5913 Posts
"We don't know how long immunity will last." or "We don't know if there are multiple strains that you can get infected with." it would make more sense. But this is quite a curious statement. | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
On April 25 2020 15:30 Danglars wrote: The overwhelming stress was pretty much NYC-localized, and practically everyone that needs hospital treatment can get hospital treatment. As we saw from case mortality that I quoted earlier, there isn't a nation in the west doing better besides Germany (and bravo for that). Like, I know it's easy to spot the errors and terrible statements and lack of preparation. It's undeniable and pretty ridiculous in it's own right, and very open to criticism. And I have to say it because I know some people will deny that to get to some kind of prefab conclusion. So I'd advise a little more circumspect look besides standing, jaw dropped, at total number infected and bulk records broken in densely populated areas. I'd say this similar to the way we put qualifications on why Switzerland has ~20% higher deaths/100k compared to the US, and China has (officially) 95% less than Germany. It makes little sense to me to only cover-up the nuance (Big Numbers!!!) in one case and extend great considered weight in others. California has mostly flattened the growth curve. Most counties are in the linear increase range. Gov Newsom is allowing elective surgeries to resume in hospitals, thank god. Hopefully he'll steer things towards extensive random sampling to give a better idea of asymptomatic case spread and closer approximations of fatality rate. The testing capacity has been increasing very quickly. I'd like you to stop comparing mortality rate at that point, since the US isn't reporting any nursing home fatalities, and there had to be lawsuits to even reveal the names of nursing homes where deaths happened (not even mentioning the amount of casualties in them) in some states (Florida comes to mind), because they are "privately owned and have a right to privacy". - Belgium is reporting nursing home deaths, even including suspected cases in their toll (they say that for comparison purposes, one should divide the number by 2 as nursing homes deaths are > 50% of their death toll). - France has been reporting them for the last 4 weeks and is now caught up with the backlog (they account for nearly 40% of deaths). - Spain and Italy are doing it too, though I'm not sure to what extent. - The UK still has discrepancies in their reporting of nursing homes fatalities. So if you do the same math, you need to nearly double the casualties in the US, and suddenly numbers look more in line with the rest. The NYT made a tally last week, going up to 7k, a lot more than officially reported (and it's not complete of course) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html Add to that the epidemic was a few weeks late to really take off compared to Europe, which means the deaths are delayed, too. The US is NOT doing better on any metric than "most countries in the west barring Germany". The new cases (30k a day) and fatality (2k a day) numbers have not even peaked yet and look plateaued but not decreasing. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On April 26 2020 01:34 Nouar wrote: I'd like you to stop comparing mortality rate at that point, since the US isn't reporting any nursing home fatalities, and there had to be lawsuits to even reveal the names of nursing homes where deaths happened (not even mentioning the amount of casualties in them) in some states (Florida comes to mind), because they are "privately owned and have a right to privacy". - Belgium is reporting nursing home deaths, even including suspected cases in their toll (they say that for comparison purposes, one should divide the number by 2 as nursing homes deaths are > 50% of their death toll). - France has been reporting them for the last 4 weeks and is now caught up with the backlog (they account for nearly 40% of deaths). - Spain and Italy are doing it too, though I'm not sure to what extent. - The UK still has discrepancies in their reporting of nursing homes fatalities. So if you do the same math, you need to nearly double the casualties in the US, and suddenly numbers look more in line with the rest. The NYT made a tally last week, going up to 7k, a lot more than officially reported (and it's not complete of course) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-nursing-homes.html Add to that the epidemic was a few weeks late to really take off compared to Europe, which means the deaths are delayed, too. The US is NOT doing better on any metric than "most countries in the west barring Germany". The new cases (30k a day) and fatality (2k a day) numbers have not even peaked yet and look plateaued but not decreasing. I can hold off on that in future since it’s uncertain how many deaths in nursing home facilities are being specifically noted separate from coronavirus deaths, or just underreporting in general. More on that, since “isn't reporting any nursing home fatalities” is too strong from you: https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/state-reporting-of-cases-and-deaths-due-to-covid-19-in-long-term-care-facilities/ A closer reading of your NYT article will show that these deaths were being tallied, but the study was able to trace their specific locations to nursing homes. Doubling the “true deaths” from coronavirus using nursing homes is way unsupported and not believable. | ||
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Nouar
France3270 Posts
On April 26 2020 03:31 Danglars wrote: I can hold off on that in future since it’s uncertain how many deaths in nursing home facilities are being specifically noted separate from coronavirus deaths, or just underreporting in general. More on that, since “isn't reporting any nursing home fatalities” is too strong from you: https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/state-reporting-of-cases-and-deaths-due-to-covid-19-in-long-term-care-facilities/ A closer reading of your NYT article will show that these deaths were being tallied, but the study was able to trace their specific locations to nursing homes. Doubling the “true deaths” from coronavirus using nursing homes is way unsupported and not believable. Agreed. It's a little hard to follow, you kff link is an excellent source of detailed information. The news these past few days coming from CDC, where they said there were going to *start* tracking deaths in nursing homes was a little confusing (they are going to track them directly and required nursing homes to directly report numbers to them). Especially as these homes were not even required to communicate to their residents and families if there were cases or deaths (depending on states), it's hard to be sure if they had to give tallies to the authorities. Private sector homes (and even hospitals) and rules being different between states complicate things. More simple here, as most hospitals are public. Doubling deaths would be believable if most of the reporting was not available (seems it is, then), as it happens in several countries, sometimes despite underreporting, and your own link mentions reported nursing homes deaths vary between currently reporting states between 8% and 60% of the total with an average at 27%. I believe NY has more than 10k deaths in homes versus 22k in total. There is also another issue for the US : due to the status of health care coverage, there may be more deaths at home than in european countries, as patients can be refused by hospitals, and some may not even try to. It is going to be hard to get exact figures before a while, if ever. That's why overall, I think it's best not to compare death rates while everything is ongoing, as all countries are functioning (and counting, and testing) differently. It makes little sense. I'd rather see comparisons between the increasing/decreasing amount of fatalities in each country (graphs), as they can show the evolution and result of the policies taken. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5299 Posts
On April 26 2020 01:27 JimmiC wrote: 'cause the way they take the samples for testing makes no sense and screws up any semblance of logic that could be derived from testing.This is one of the most fascinating things about this story and it appears to continually change our thoughts on it. At first people who got it a second time were thought to be false positive, but if they are not getting antibodies than this means you can been infected again and again? Is social distancing the new norm for a long time? get the swab, stick it up ones nose until it almost hits the back of the throat, send it to the lab; thing is, anything in the air gets sucked up the nose while breathing(minding the particle size requirements). when you have a cured person and one with an active infection in the same room and the infected one sprays covid all over the room through coughing, you'll find covid up the nose of the cured person because ... breathing. then, they say the cured person was reinfected, that he had low antibodies, that he got a different strain/mutation etc. what being "infected" means nowadays, is anyones guess. Edit: it's the same with the infected cats ... if there are no symptoms, it should be a carrier at best, not (re)infected. | ||
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