EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 51
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RvB
Netherlands6326 Posts
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Vivax
22426 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On January 26 2021 09:05 LegalLord wrote: Any bets on what the peak price on GME will be? Mooned another 130% this morning just because WSB willed it to be so, a truly amazing feat. I missed the ride up, but I won't miss it going down. I'm going to short the shit of it at peak. Hopefully does 300 tomorrow, 6 months to expiry ATM. | ||
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Blitzkrieg0
United States13132 Posts
On January 26 2021 12:40 FiWiFaKi wrote: I missed the ride up, but I won't miss it going down. I'm going to short the shit of it at peak. Hopefully does 300 tomorrow, 6 months to expiry ATM. This is the interesting position. Everyone knows it is a bubble that is going to burst at some point, but as long as people are unable to close shorts it will continue sky rocketing which keeps fueling a bigger bubble. Not touching it personally. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14220 Posts
On January 26 2021 13:04 Blitzkrieg0 wrote: This is the interesting position. Everyone knows it is a bubble that is going to burst at some point, but as long as people are unable to close shorts it will continue sky rocketing which keeps fueling a bigger bubble. Not touching it personally. I'm not touching it either but I think its an incredible story that won't be told to people. Its all basically a collection of all the nasty stuff the market does to hurt the average investor blowing up in their face out of sheer will. Logically Gamestop isn't a viable business and has no chance at being a success but the fascinating warfare going on between a Hedgie that people hate and a weird memely online community of people who don't really understand whats going on is incredible. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 26 2021 13:34 Sermokala wrote: I'm not touching it either but I think its an incredible story that won't be told to people. Its all basically a collection of all the nasty stuff the market does to hurt the average investor blowing up in their face out of sheer will. Logically Gamestop isn't a viable business and has no chance at being a success but the fascinating warfare going on between a Hedgie that people hate and a weird memely online community of people who don't really understand whats going on is incredible. No way I would've touched this one at any point through its rise. But you pretty much hit the nail on the head - weird people on the internet just made a pointless stock hit some insane valuations through sheer willpower, and screwed over some big hedge fund names in the process. You just have to appreciate the wild ride in a remarkably unnatural stock market. | ||
KwarK
United States44428 Posts
Imagine being the manager of that fund and getting robbed daily like this by reddit memers. Literally every other hedge fund manager must be laughing their asses off at them. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On January 26 2021 13:04 Blitzkrieg0 wrote: This is the interesting position. Everyone knows it is a bubble that is going to burst at some point, but as long as people are unable to close shorts it will continue sky rocketing which keeps fueling a bigger bubble. Not touching it personally. If you're selling put options, that's one thing, because you can get squeezed up to a point that you have to buy the stock to cover your position (or buy a very expensive option in the other direction), and these puts have an expiry, so at some point they will be exercised, and eventually people will start taking profit as well. Right now they are just very expensive, a 75 put costs around 40 for 6 months out, so the stock would need to drop to 35 within 6 months to break even, but at 300, maybe the 6 month out put would be 160. So as long as it falls below 140 in 6 months you're making money. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On January 26 2021 14:58 KwarK wrote: Hedge Fund Melvin Capital are short 5.4m shares. That means that when the price spikes $90 in a morning, like it did this morning, they get a call from their broker asking them for another $500m in cash. They didn't have it on hand so they had to request a bailout from another hedge fund. Shit is wild. Imagine being the manager of that fund and getting robbed daily like this by reddit memers. Literally every other hedge fund manager must be laughing their asses off at them. Yup, 12.5bil assets under management, and being down 30% this year already, that hedge fund is going to struggle lol. Talk about diversifying risk. On January 26 2021 13:50 LegalLord wrote: No way I would've touched this one at any point through its rise. But you pretty much hit the nail on the head - weird people on the internet just made a pointless stock hit some insane valuations through sheer willpower, and screwed over some big hedge fund names in the process. You just have to appreciate the wild ride in a remarkably unnatural stock market. I mean they have 6.5bil yearly revenue with a 5.3bil market cap right now. It's pretty on par with Walmart or Target ratios. It's not as absurd as I initially thought, if they could raise their profit margin 10-15%, and have a business plan than that doesn't go obsolete in a couple years, they have a chance. Unlikely of course, but it's not like that valuation comes back on the end of a 100mil yearly revenue, like many new tech companies. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6326 Posts
On January 26 2021 14:58 KwarK wrote: Hedge Fund Melvin Capital are short 5.4m shares. That means that when the price spikes $90 in a morning, like it did this morning, they get a call from their broker asking them for another $500m in cash. They didn't have it on hand so they had to request a bailout from another hedge fund. Shit is wild. Imagine being the manager of that fund and getting robbed daily like this by reddit memers. Literally every other hedge fund manager must be laughing their asses off at them. The shorters are screwed. At this point I doubt it's just WSB. There's money to be made so other institutional investors pile in as well. If the actual short squeeze happens the price can spike to more than a 1000. Should've kept those shares Kwark  . | ||
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dankobanana
Croatia244 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 26 2021 15:34 FiWiFaKi wrote: I mean they have 6.5bil yearly revenue with a 5.3bil market cap right now. It's pretty on par with Walmart or Target ratios. It's not as absurd as I initially thought, if they could raise their profit margin 10-15%, and have a business plan than that doesn't go obsolete in a couple years, they have a chance. Unlikely of course, but it's not like that valuation comes back on the end of a 100mil yearly revenue, like many new tech companies. Walmart and Target are good businesses with a strong consumer base and a plan for the future. Gamestop is a dead man walking that is unprofitable with a strong downward trend in revenue. You'd be better off comparing it to Kmart of a decade ago really. Dying, but still with a chance to give it one more go. To be fair, one of the initial triggers for this run-up was the astute observation that Gamestop was worth more on a pure asset-stripping basis than what its market cap would say it was. Plus a couple of new investors came to town. I bet it'd have been taken private for cheap pennies if this WSB saga hadn't happened, which would at least give it a sporting chance at a turnaround. I'll be interested to see if they try to leverage their new high stock price to clean up their balance sheet at some point. But really, none of that matters to the current situation. It's all going to be about whether the short sellers or the stock buyers blink first. Good time for popcorn. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/IyVyaUu.jpg) Well, tried my first small WSB with paper hands haha. $120 purchase, $149 sell. Was a bit of a spur of the moment thing, so did in in CAD account, so I ate some pretty large fees in currency exchange. But overall, glad the stress is over haha. Going to try to not feel bad when it opens at 300 tomorrow. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
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KwarK
United States44428 Posts
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On January 27 2021 06:27 BlackJack wrote: So what's the next stock that is going to blow up like TSLA and GME? Blackberry? Maybe the best gamble is trying to pick the next stock to go to the moon and try to get in early. As long as the shorts are covering instead of going insolvent, there's still room to go up. I don't think were far away from the peak, and I think recently we've gotten a pump like no other, so Friday or sometime next week when it pops and everyone is down 50%, people will become more skeptical of these pumps again. So short term (this week is still okay imo), I don't recommend looking at these type of companies. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Now, just after the bell, went from -2% to +15% in seconds in after-hours trading. As the wise men from WSB say, you just have to HODL no matter what on this fun ride. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On January 27 2021 06:38 LegalLord wrote: I spent a good 30 minutes watching GME go up and down with a live ticker. That kind of volatility is amazing. Now, just after the bell, went from -2% to +15% in seconds in after-hours trading. As the wise men from WSB say, you just have to HODL no matter what on this fun ride. HODL is a crypto term, and only self respecting WSB members would use it. | ||
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Vivax
22426 Posts
On January 27 2021 06:27 BlackJack wrote: So what's the next stock that is going to blow up like TSLA and GME? Blackberry? Maybe the best gamble is trying to pick the next stock to go to the moon and try to get in early. My guess and not advice would be to pick one out of this list that had a rather boring price action so far (though it's a narrow scope as it's all US stocks.) https://www.highshortinterest.com/ To my knowdledge the biggest short sellers in the market are companies who sell stock. Wouldn't surprise me if QE/semi-printing is directed at (some of?) them. | ||
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