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Alakaslam
United States17336 Posts
On January 11 2021 15:44 KwarK wrote: Don’t ask the bank for help picking Roth or Trad, ask me. The bank doesn’t know shit. Also don’t get one through the bank, just use Vanguard or Fidelity. I have heard of Vanguard. You’re saying they have good IRA account management then? | ||
KwarK
United States44195 Posts
On January 13 2021 15:07 Alakaslam wrote: I have heard of Vanguard. You’re saying they have good IRA account management then? They offer the lowest cost index funds around and they're owned by their customers. Easy to fund an account and pick investments. Basically just does whatever you need them to do. | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17336 Posts
On January 13 2021 15:14 KwarK wrote: They offer the lowest cost index funds around and they're owned by their customers. Easy to fund an account and pick investments. Basically just does whatever you need them to do. Excellent! And thanks FiWiFaKi as well! Well then, once I am ready to put it in I’ll send you a PM if that’s alright, KwarK? | ||
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Chewbacca.
United States3634 Posts
On January 13 2021 15:20 Alakaslam wrote: Excellent! And thanks FiWiFaKi as well! Well then, once I am ready to put it in I’ll send you a PM if that’s alright, KwarK? On the other hand, I’ve heard that Vanguard customer service has been severely lacking recently, and a lot of their investors are hopping over to Fidelety. Vanguard used to be the king of the low cost fund, but these days that’s almost the standard. I personally haven’t used Vanguard (Well, I have some of their funds, but through E*Trade), but just from reading on bogleheads I get the sense that vanguard is going downhill Edit: Realistically, both options are probably perfectly fine and among the best. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium5194 Posts
I want to use my money I'm saving to generate a bit more than it's doing right now (sitting in a bank, doing nothing) and some of you seem to be quite proficient and knowledgeable. But I think I can trust some of you around here at least about as much as a random bank clerk anyway. Of course I could do it myself, but that seems.. so much effort for someone not interested in economy/trading at all (at the moment at least). | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On January 13 2021 18:09 Uldridge wrote: Serious question, can I give someone like 10k in here to play with, and you keep a percentage as commission? Or do you guys not trust yourselves with my money? I want to use my money I'm saving to generate a bit more than it's doing right now (sitting in a bank, doing nothing) and some of you seem to be quite proficient and knowledgeable. But I think I can trust some of you around here at least about as much as a random bank clerk anyway. Of course I could do it myself, but that seems.. so much effort for someone not interested in economy/trading at all (at the moment at least). I've thought about it in the past, because most people here can go to a bank and get an unsecured LoC at 6-7%, and if you have something of yours backing the investment, like your house, you can get 3% (I think my father's HELOC is 2.35%, and my margin rate is 2.75%, which is essentially a loan backed by my equities). So from your point of view, giving someone 10k to make say $500 in a year is not so sexy with the risk you'd have to take, not even malicious, maybe they just die in a car crash. Your deposits wouldn't be backed by the government like in Canada. Don't get me started on the significant fraction of a percent you'd lose on exchange rate going back and forth if you find someone not using your currency (and currency risk during that time). Also potential tax implications when using legit institutions, the government would see that the person that is investing for you had some money magically appear and would suggest it's income, and would raise some flags. I mean I'm sure people wouldn't mind running a little mutual fund for you, where you bear all the risk, and they take a small cut of your overall portfolio, but people nowadays don't like that very much because the market is hard to predict, and historically its been tough for these funds to beat the S&P500. Also someone on TL wouldn't have the same kind of tools for you to monitor the investments and such. Opening up an account, buying and forgetting much time. All that aside, I would borrow as much money as I could at 4% annual minus fees. | ||
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Blitzkrieg0
United States13132 Posts
On January 13 2021 15:14 KwarK wrote: They offer the lowest cost index funds around and they're owned by their customers. Easy to fund an account and pick investments. Basically just does whatever you need them to do. Fidelity and Charles Schwab both offer all the no cost funds like vanguard did in recent years. I'd say Fidelity and Charles Schwab have much better interfaces if you don't know what you're doing as well. Can't go wrong investing with any of them though. On January 13 2021 18:09 Uldridge wrote: Serious question, can I give someone like 10k in here to play with, and you keep a percentage as commission? Or do you guys not trust yourselves with my money? I want to use my money I'm saving to generate a bit more than it's doing right now (sitting in a bank, doing nothing) and some of you seem to be quite proficient and knowledgeable. But I think I can trust some of you around here at least about as much as a random bank clerk anyway. Of course I could do it myself, but that seems.. so much effort for someone not interested in economy/trading at all (at the moment at least). Just invest in index funds. Any active management fee is going to be more than the additional profit you could potentially make. Warren Buffett even bet money on this and the hedge funds lost. | ||
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KwarK
United States44195 Posts
On January 13 2021 18:09 Uldridge wrote: Serious question, can I give someone like 10k in here to play with, and you keep a percentage as commission? Or do you guys not trust yourselves with my money? I want to use my money I'm saving to generate a bit more than it's doing right now (sitting in a bank, doing nothing) and some of you seem to be quite proficient and knowledgeable. But I think I can trust some of you around here at least about as much as a random bank clerk anyway. Of course I could do it myself, but that seems.. so much effort for someone not interested in economy/trading at all (at the moment at least). This is a terrible idea. The effort involved in putting it into an index fund is seconds/year. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6295 Posts
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RvB
Netherlands6295 Posts
On December 23 2020 02:28 KwarK wrote: $19/share if I still had them. Edit: $22/share GME at 34$ a share now. 70% gain today. | ||
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KwarK
United States44195 Posts
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
How do you guys feel about interest rates? JPow and Canada is assuring interest rates will stay low - as long as inflation does. But money formula is MV = PT, and we've been raising money supply, 120Bil/month bond buyback, and now stimulus bills. This was offset by a lower velocity of money due to uncertain circumstances to keep P, price level reasonably stable. As soon as the velocity starts increasing with the recovery, will result in higher inflation, which will result in higher interest rates. I'm of the school of economics that high interests rates are the biggest risk to cascading the economy into a recession. Most growth companies are extended pretty far, and that makes up a larger part of the S&P500 than ever before. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 15 2021 06:23 FiWiFaKi wrote: How do you guys feel about interest rates? JPow and Canada is assuring interest rates will stay low - as long as inflation does. We're dealing with an alarming level of asset inflation right now. It would take some significant contortions of logic to convince oneself that that's not the case because it's so obviously true. Consumer inflation is low due to obvious downward pressures on the economy, but for assets the money printers have kept prices very high. So we're definitely living the inflationary dream right now. While I'd love to be able to say that my investments are up because I made smart choices there, it's pretty obvious we're in a bubble driven by boundless stimulus and cheap money. Not much to do about it though - you lose if you're caught buying at the top of the bubble, but you also lose if you're holding too much cash (won't pretend I'm not). Normally this ends when interest rates start to go up and inadvertently cause a meltdown, but we already tripped on that one back in 2018. So I guess all that's left for the world's central banks to do is to figure out what happens if you never raise interest rates? Can't say I know how it'll end but it's quite obvious that they're stuck and everyone is hoping that on the other end of the pandemic is an economic miracle. Because short of that happening, there's no good way out of this interest rate & debt trap we built up. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
A steep drop should come soon i still believe in that,despite the enormous asset inflation (caused by the several trillion which has been printed this year alone). We keep pumping everything we can but the real economy is still going down. The disconect between the real economy and the financial markets has never been this big and the further we look ahead the worse it becomes because the demographic situation leaves less and less room for the real growth that is needed to allow the real economy to catch up again. The big reset in 2030 that the world economic forum has been talking about. It is starting to look more and more like the only possible outcome. ~2030 is the time when the demographics really start to turn against the world economy. (not a financial advise btw,lol). @yes that is one of the things i meant with the situation beeing serious. Not so much the disease itself (which obviously is also very serious and still underestimted) but the long term implications it will have on the real economy and financial system which are also underesimated (partially ,but not alone, because the disease itself is underestimated). | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 18 2021 08:07 pmh wrote: The situation on a fundamental level is extremely bad (because the new variations in the epidemic) but the markets still didnt react to my surprise. There is indeed an alarming level of asset inflation going on right now. It's not going to fall on the bad news of more or worse pandemic. That's already "priced in" so to say - we had a brief crash, but an unprecedented stimulus and money printing operation has tided us over for that. What's not priced in is that things aren't going to look very rosy on the other end of the pandemic. Businesses and individuals are in dire financial straits and being propped up by a stimulus that is completely and utterly unsustainable, we have a debt crisis buried under several dozen dubious forbearance programs, and it'll take years to put the economy back together again. Meanwhile assets are priced as if the end of the pandemic will spark a golden age of beautiful unprecedented growth. That's not going to happen and eventually there will have to be a correction, and it won't be obvious except in hindsight when or even why it happened. At the risk of being wrong, I predict that at some point around six months from now we will have seen the crash. As the last stimulus and the last big lockdown push run their course, we'll see what remains of the economy on the other side. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6295 Posts
On January 15 2021 06:23 FiWiFaKi wrote: Oof, watching BB run off today after I scalped a few hundred on in a few weeks earlier lol. Out of the 3 I was considering, purchased the worst one. How do you guys feel about interest rates? JPow and Canada is assuring interest rates will stay low - as long as inflation does. But money formula is MV = PT, and we've been raising money supply, 120Bil/month bond buyback, and now stimulus bills. This was offset by a lower velocity of money due to uncertain circumstances to keep P, price level reasonably stable. As soon as the velocity starts increasing with the recovery, will result in higher inflation, which will result in higher interest rates. I'm of the school of economics that high interests rates are the biggest risk to cascading the economy into a recession. Most growth companies are extended pretty far, and that makes up a larger part of the S&P500 than ever before. It's hard to say. I've heard warnings of inflation for more than a decade now. Central Banks will probably accept a little higher inflation than usual as well to compensate for the low inflation now. So we'll see low interest rates for a while. We'll see what happens. | ||
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Blitzkrieg0
United States13132 Posts
On January 18 2021 09:03 LegalLord wrote: It's not going to fall on the bad news of more or worse pandemic. That's already "priced in" so to say - we had a brief crash, but an unprecedented stimulus and money printing operation has tided us over for that. What's not priced in is that things aren't going to look very rosy on the other end of the pandemic. Businesses and individuals are in dire financial straits and being propped up by a stimulus that is completely and utterly unsustainable, we have a debt crisis buried under several dozen dubious forbearance programs, and it'll take years to put the economy back together again. Meanwhile assets are priced as if the end of the pandemic will spark a golden age of beautiful unprecedented growth. That's not going to happen and eventually there will have to be a correction, and it won't be obvious except in hindsight when or even why it happened. At the risk of being wrong, I predict that at some point around six months from now we will have seen the crash. As the last stimulus and the last big lockdown push run their course, we'll see what remains of the economy on the other side. I'm curious if Bernie can accelerate the timeline. I think his position will at least scare investors. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
Interest rates cant go up ever again. With the way the financial system is now interest rates dont lead to less inflation,that is a common misconception and somewhat contradictory to the classical economic school according to which rising interest rates lead to a lower inflation. I will try explain and keep it simple so the following is a huge simplification of the actual economic situation but it covers the core principle and i hope people can understand and see what i mean. There is a ton of debth that has to be refinanced all the time. If interest rates go up then a lot more money is needed to pay those interest rates and that money has to come from somewhere. It cant come from the real economy and the average joe because many of them live around the poverty line already. It wont come from from the richer people because,well because. The only way rising interest rates can be paid without completely crashing the whole economy is by lending even more money which will drastically increase inequality while doing nothing against inflation because the amount of money only grows further and the debth will increase even faster to pay those interest rates. You can see this in many examples in the past,often in 2nd world countries. Very high inequality and a very high inflation combined with very high interest rates and an economy which shows no real growth. The system kinda is beyond repair which is inevitable when inequality has risen to a certain point. Inequality has risen to much,it is at a point where it severely harms the development and the growth of the economy. To be able to invest and make a decent return there has to be purchase power with the common people and the less purchase power there is with the common people in relation to the amount of money that wants to invest and make a return,the more difficult it becomes for the money to make a return since that return very often has to come from the common people. An economy that has low inequality is much more attractive for investing,because there is much more money to be made relatively. This in return then off course leads to a slow but steady increase in equality. Its a sort of catch 22 and this is why rising inequality is more or less inevitable. The rise of inequality is more or less inevitable in our system,it is baked into the system mostly because of the mechanic explained above. It will happen slowly overtime unless drastic meassures are taken. That is unlikely though because with rising inequality also comes rising political influence which then prevents those meassures. The only thing that seems to be able to cause a "reset" and bring inequality down is a cataclystic event like for example ww2 which drastically reduced inequality and created a good economy in the years after. (the best example beeing the usa in the 50,s and early 60,s which didnt have to rebuild). Since ww2 inequality has slowly but steadily been rising up to the point where it is now,which i believe is very close to the limit the system can handle and very close to the point where it starts to severely limit the economic development. The system has become far less dynamic,mostly because there is relatively less and less purchase power with the common people which in the end forms the resevoir that is needed to make it possible for investments to make a good return. The above isnt meant as an argument for a different economic system btw,i strongly believe in the current economic system. It is meant as an argument for meassures that decrease inequality to maintain a dynamic and competitive system that encourages investment and innovation. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 18 2021 22:25 Blitzkrieg0 wrote: I'm curious if Bernie can accelerate the timeline. I think his position will at least scare investors. They were scared before he lost the primaries; now not so much since his impact is much more limited. | ||
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Blitzkrieg0
United States13132 Posts
On January 18 2021 23:40 LegalLord wrote: They were scared before he lost the primaries; now not so much since his impact is much more limited. Certainly less influence than if he was president and maybe it is already priced in. I think the Amazon union vote in Alabama may be a good signal for how far left/pro union the country is willing to move in the near future. | ||
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