EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 48
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dw260307
2 Posts
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Alakaslam
United States17336 Posts
Companies die even when they’re huge enough to seem to be insular to such failure. We don’t notice sometimes because other companies buy their brand. It often comes with no warning as well. Such is the nature of risk. But, with savvy risk can be minimized. Hence this thread. In many cases, killing the company is the best thing for it’s owner to do. But they obviously won’t announce their intent to do so, that would be foolish. | ||
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Vivax
22410 Posts
I'm short a bunch of other stuff starting today. | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13480 Posts
Musk is now officially the world's richest man. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 08 2021 02:02 Vivax wrote: Nvidia drop from yesterday looks ugly. Though tbf the entire long term chart is ridiculous if not bitcoin, probably. I'm short a bunch of other stuff starting today. No worries, NVIDIA recovered all its losses with the quickness today. Really don't know why it had such a precipitous drop. Only piece of substantial news items were stablecoins and Georgia Senate results, but I don't think NVIDIA would be uniquely briefly negatively affected by that. | ||
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Belisarius
Australia6233 Posts
No idea why everyone decided it was a nothingburger the next day though. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
I've been really happy with my oil positions now that WTI is at $51, close to break even on Suncor. If we get a 1.5% day tomorrow, I think I will sell my S&P position, up around 16% on that in the last 6 months. Not really sure what I would like to buy though. Goodyear seemed interesting, BlackBerry a bit of a meme, but I like it with increasing car sales, I wouldn't mind yolo'ing some money into a smaller O&G company if I didn't have such a Suncor position already. Maybe Shaw or a big Canadian bank until something happens in the market. Oof, choices. Anyone have any interesting rationale for some of their positions that look good which I can help pump? | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17336 Posts
On January 08 2021 08:34 LegalLord wrote: No worries, NVIDIA recovered all its losses with the quickness today. Really don't know why it had such a precipitous drop. Only piece of substantial news items were stablecoins and Georgia Senate results, but I don't think NVIDIA would be uniquely briefly negatively affected by that. Depends. A lot of people invested in it may have been paranoid trump basement dudes, who all sold at once. Bounce back could then be more silicon valley types having more confidence to invest in tech with a more stable political climate, from their perspective. Strangely enough, that may literally have been it. A money microshift | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 08 2021 11:45 Alakaslam wrote: Depends. A lot of people invested in it may have been paranoid trump basement dudes, who all sold at once. Bounce back could then be more silicon valley types having more confidence to invest in tech with a more stable political climate, from their perspective. Strangely enough, that may literally have been it. A money microshift I'd expect it to move in the same direction as the other tech stocks in most circumstances; with the exception of yesterday it almost always has. The ARM regulator troubles are an explanation I'd buy. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4447 Posts
On January 08 2021 11:45 Alakaslam wrote: Depends. A lot of people invested in it may have been paranoid trump basement dudes, who all sold at once. Bounce back could then be more silicon valley types having more confidence to invest in tech with a more stable political climate, from their perspective. Strangely enough, that may literally have been it. A money microshift Paranoid Trump basement dudes pumped their money into gold and guns already.Probably another algo glitch. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 08 2021 11:02 FiWiFaKi wrote: Anyone have any interesting rationale for some of their positions that look good which I can help pump? Tech is the obvious big pump these days, with crypto seeing another breath of life. I hear Stellar is a pretty good Cool New Thing™ in the crypto world, and Ethereum got a big boost a few days ago. I'm a bit of a wimp when it comes to throwing money at obvious bubbles, but it's hard to deny that it would've been a very good wall street bet to have done that. You seem more at home with cyclical plays on commodities, though, so maybe find another one of those? | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On January 09 2021 01:20 LegalLord wrote: Tech is the obvious big pump these days, with crypto seeing another breath of life. I hear Stellar is a pretty good Cool New Thing™ in the crypto world, and Ethereum got a big boost a few days ago. I'm a bit of a wimp when it comes to throwing money at obvious bubbles, but it's hard to deny that it would've been a very good wall street bet to have done that. You seem more at home with cyclical plays on commodities, though, so maybe find another one of those? I think tech and crypto were the pump, but for example, in the last 2 months, oil heavily performed tech. So just thinking whether tech is the wisest strategy going forward for the next 6 months, during the downturn, absolutely going Nasdaq 100 was the sensible play (unless Tesla deemed sensible haha). Wsb has become such garbage for me, it's all gme and pltr hurrdurr, I was only viewing it since March, so I don't have a good benchmark, but I felt the info was more useful there earlier. God dammit though, yesterday I moved 6k into my account to fill up my TFSA to this year's contribution room, and was thinking Goodyear or BB with it yesterday, but I missed out on a nice 7% gain there. Don't really have preference on companies, besides no pharmaceuticals because I have no knowledge about how the industry works. I guess I end up choosing commodities sometimes because they are more rational in how to analyse them when looking where the world is headed. Buying into a company like Zoom is so... Idk, their future worth is so hard to calculate, but stuff like Microsoft and Alphabet I like. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
There are no asset managers who represent their strategy to clients as “We buy the most expensive assets, and add to them as they rise in price and valuation.” That’s unfortunate, because this is the only strategy that could have possibly enabled an asset manager to outperform in the modern era. It’s one of those things you could never advertise, but had you done it, you’d have beaten everyone over the ten-year period since the market’s generational low. The "calls on X hurrdurr" aspect of wsb is indeed what makes it good. The idiots in the other forums of discussion who treat the current market as anything but a gamble on obviously inflated assets while coming to the same conclusions on what to buy/sell are the real chumps. Second only to those who missed out on the rally entirely. But as I said - cyclical plays on commodities seem to be your comfort zone, so stick to that. There aren't any good "value" plays when everything is in severe bubble territory, so either hop on the speculation train or don't. | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17336 Posts
On January 08 2021 13:41 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Paranoid Trump basement dudes pumped their money into gold and guns already.Probably another algo glitch. Not all trump basement dudes are backwater hicks. These are a large portion of the people I grew up with you’re talking about here; a lot of them are 4chan nerds. That being said. Obviously I have no clue what led to that and it’s probably an algorithm glitch as you’ve put forward. All that to now be left in the past, any recommendations on starting a portfolio with very small extra capital? Talking $1000 total that I can spare. I’m 30, work for a private school currently but thinking of moving back into family business with my parents. Should that happen, I’ll be much more tied up in family but I’ll also have a bit more room to grow. I’m essentially brand new to stock trading, I’ve passively looked at the markets for a while but I’ve never gone through the actual process of purchasing stock due to the fact that I’ve simply been working a lot for not much most of my life. Getting married has actually helped with that now, as my wife will return to work soon. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On January 11 2021 09:27 Alakaslam wrote: Not all trump basement dudes are backwater hicks. These are a large portion of the people I grew up with you’re talking about here; a lot of them are 4chan nerds. That being said. Obviously I have no clue what led to that and it’s probably an algorithm glitch as you’ve put forward. All that to now be left in the past, any recommendations on starting a portfolio with very small extra capital? Talking $1000 total that I can spare. I’m 30, work for a private school currently but thinking of moving back into family business with my parents. Should that happen, I’ll be much more tied up in family but I’ll also have a bit more room to grow. I’m essentially brand new to stock trading, I’ve passively looked at the markets for a while but I’ve never gone through the actual process of purchasing stock due to the fact that I’ve simply been working a lot for not much most of my life. Getting married has actually helped with that now, as my wife will return to work soon. Welcome to the club  Go to your bank, open up a Roth IRA, or whatever the investment specialist will say is optimal in your state for taxes (TFSA here in Canada). And I think just buying an index ETF is the way to go when you start out. It's tempting to chase huge gains when you aren't investing with a lot of capital, but most of the time that will make an account go to zero. Take a look here at the list: https://etfdb.com/compare/market-cap/ VOO or QQQ would be my recommendation, QQQ if you think people are underestimating the value of tech going forward, VOO if you think COVID was a bit of a hiccup and the world will go back to what it was 2 years ago. If you think your country is going to shit, you can take a look at a world etf to hedge risk, but I think the S&P500 is enough diversification. It's very safe relative to individual stocks, feel out how you deal with risk and fluctuations in the market... Could look at other things down the line, but you're going to struggle to beat these ETF's going forward without some significant diligence and emotional disconnect. Also, it's not worth your time to do extensive research versus just making more money with your job for now, so you're better off to buy and forget. I have a 200k or so portfolio, and half of my capital is in an S&P500 index. | ||
KwarK
United States44285 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Vivax
22410 Posts
On January 12 2021 01:19 LegalLord wrote: Bitcoin took a nice fun tumble over the weekend. Down 25% to $30k a pop, lol. Yep no limit down on bitcoin. At least you can mostly get out of index funds during a crash. Provided the stock exchanges don't run out of liquidity. | ||
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KwarK
United States44285 Posts
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
Not sure what to make of the market right now, and thinking we might be trading flat for the next little while, so wanted to play it safe. Don't think were in 2000s bubble territory, but think there's a decent probability of a double digit correction at some point soon, so a 12Bil company paying a juicy 5% dividend and having a 700mil net income per year seems decent. Pretty bullish on Freedom Mobile taking more market share, and Shaw Mobility will take some old timers from people purchasing Cable and Internet through them. I think cable revenue is lower margin, so even with cable cutters, I think they're looking fine with their home internet. To me, the biggest risk over the next 5 years is wireless internet advancing quicker than expected, and people opting to forego Home Internet, and just have a mobile internet plan for their home (that SpaceX starlink stuff and such). If not that, I don't think big tech players will be interested in trying to deal with cities on infrastructure projects (i.e. google fiber). Even if government pushes lower prices, Shaw will still make a healthy profit selling network to resellers. Heard some news about them potentially considering selling with the death of the owner, and not even adding that into my calculations, and honestly I don't think it's very likely, but that would be a boon for the company if anything. A 15-30% price increase over the next 1-2 years is my outlook. In other news, oil is still going strong, $53+ for WTI is promising, kind of thinking government will be friendly with regulations to help the beat up companies, and people out of work. Kind of positive for my life too, because life has had a lot of uncertainly, and honestly has felt depressing in Cowtown, even with my career it isn't feeling 100% safe. I feel like the pandemic helped a bit to bring people together here, that diversification and planning for our future is important, but at the same time O&G is a pillar for our economy, and it supports a lot of what allows our standard of living... And we need to be measured in moving forward. | ||
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