EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 43
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Vivax
22251 Posts
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3 Lions
United States3705 Posts
On September 05 2020 01:22 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: Anyone wanna make sense of the sell-offs and stock market (tech) going down in a death spiral it seems? It's a confluence of factors - rotation out of momentum (outperformers, aka tech), reversal of factors that have worked in recent months Also apparently the huge rally in tech over the last month was partially driven by Softbank taking huge options bets on American technology companies, so a large part of the move up was not fundamentally-driven at all. Makes sense that it reverses now. Softbank are clowns, lol | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On September 05 2020 01:22 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: Anyone wanna make sense of the sell-offs and stock market (tech) going down in a death spiral it seems? A pullback after a really big run-up followed by some panic selling in response to the pullback. Much as I think there’s some serious overvaluation in the tech stocks, Kwark is right that so far, it’s just a couple days worth of growth reversed. The alleged good news of the unemployment rate drop will bring the euphoria train back. Or more stimulus, or something else. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
I don't have any sense of panic here, seems like a fair correction. My estimate is that we won't fall below 3200. | ||
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Vivax
22251 Posts
On September 05 2020 02:38 3 Lions wrote: It's a confluence of factors - rotation out of momentum (outperformers, aka tech), reversal of factors that have worked in recent months Also apparently the huge rally in tech over the last month was partially driven by Softbank taking huge options bets on American technology companies, so a large part of the move up was not fundamentally-driven at all. Makes sense that it reverses now. Softbank are clowns, lol Nasdaq feels a bit like the Nikkei of the what was it, 80s? Why should it be different for this QE than it was for the Japanese who first started with it, when it comes to stonks at least. I don't think great depression analogies apply here because markets work differently, but there should be a price for an index where it makes sense to buy and hold expecting reasonable returns over the next decade or so and it just doesn't seem to me like this is it. Ultimately stocks going down to not-crazy levels gives an opportunity to less rich people to create a good portfolio, while it hurts the ultra-wealthy proportionately more (though their lifestyle wouldn't change at all probably). | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
OAKLAND, Calif. - In the near future, U.S. airlines are likely to see 75,000 job losses on top of some 350,000 airline industry jobs already lost in the past six months. These job losses could rise even further as the virus keeps most people frightened and grounded. Though, airlines form a key industry that supports many industries, it's an industry crying out "mayday." United Airlines says, when the Federal CARES Act restriction against airline layoff expires on October 1, it intends to furlough 16,370 employees; as many as 3,000 in the Bay Area could be sent home packing. That's far better than the 36,000 employees previously announced due to early retirements, buyouts and long term leaves of absence. United wrote employees saying "We don't expect demand to return to anything resembling normal until there is a widely available treatment or vaccine." Other U.S. airlines are planning similar downsizings. ... Today, about 30% of all us airliners are idle and grounded, flights are down 60% and passengers are down 70%. Pre-Covid passenger volumes are not likely to return until 2024. "Demand is not going to come back quickly," said Borenstein. But, that long return to pre-COVID-19 levels gives what's left of the industry time to rebuild based on economic reality and some airlines may perish. ... A bigger concern, making sure Boeing, the nation's only large airline builder and a major contributor to international trade remains able to produce. "I think there's a stronger argument for government intervention to make sure that we have capacity to build aircraft," said Borenstein. Low flight frequencies will continue almost everywhere with some smaller communities losing it all. Source Wonder if stimulus will swoop by in time to save these jobs. I'm leaning towards not; at this point it seems a lot like throwing good money after bad. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On September 11 2020 18:47 BlackJack wrote: What resources do you guys follow for information on what might be a good investment? I usually use Yahoo Finance since it provides some pretty good charts, albeit dodgy news pieces. That and various social media to keep track of what companies people are looking closely at. That said, my investments are pretty unremarkable with no real WSB plays or anything to boast of. On another note: looks like oil took another downward swing. Not a sharp negative one, but absolutely one that blunts the upward momentum and gives shale another spanking. Hope no one has a big, dumb leveraged position in oil or something! | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
Honestly for yolo plays, I think seeing what has a lot of hype behind it, and sell those options for it. The option premium gets really high somewhat irrationally. But I'd keep that kind of stuff to below 20% of your portfolio. Idk what it's called, but there isn't an amazing place to go for advice, because if it was good, it's going to be used, and that arbitrage opportunity would be covered by that stock increasing. Learn finance and accounting principals, fundamental behaviors of the market, and invest on your knowledge and gut. That said, I've gone full WSB retard with leverage, but stocks rather than options so less time sensitive (and my margin is 2.75%, and 5.5% unsecured LOC for 50k if I need to dip into that). This week I decided to sign up for one of the food delivery apps for extra income after the day job to help cover some red >_>. Actually kind of enjoyable in and meditating sort of, good market for it here, another $100 in 3 hours on average has been fairly nice (without vehicle expenses), but obviously you're flushing your life down the toilet not doing anything. Few podcasts and audiobooks I wanted to catch up on so not all is wasted I guess. | ||
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Vivax
22251 Posts
I remember someone saying they weren't going anywhere in a discussion related to USO and neg. oil prices  Though US banks might generally be in bad shape because of the expectation of negative rates. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
It doesn't look anywhere as capricious as the stock market, but very much unsettling in its own way. | ||
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Vivax
22251 Posts
On September 16 2020 09:41 LegalLord wrote: Anyone look at real estate lately (actual properties more so than REITs and the like)? Looks like a really strange frozen market. Selling is down, prices are flat, and there's every indication that landlords are dealing with significant financial pressure. Given how absurdly dependent our economy is on maintaining rising housing prices, it's no surprise that desperate measures were taken to backstop that part of the economy. Lower interest rates, and in the US, a whole year of legislated forbearance for a wide swath of mortgages. It doesn't look anywhere as capricious as the stock market, but very much unsettling in its own way. I doubt that western Austria is representative since it's generally high in demand, but prices seem to be on the rise still. Not a fan of the idea of peeps getting rich off renting several properties (to local workers or inhabitants) with the prices for rent being absurdly high in some places, but it's less reprimandable if one has let's say, one property to rent to tourists on the side, and maybe one for one's own vacation. But regulation in the matter is long overdue imho and not going to be implemented without democratic initiatives or pitchforks. Banks seem sort of obsolete at this point and contribute to the political pressure to keep RE prices inflated. | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On September 06 2020 01:53 LegalLord wrote: Folks here excited about airlines, and specifically the Oct 1 PPP cliff leading to layoffs? The market seems to be - most of them have seen a solid 20% boost in stock price over the past couple of weeks! Source Wonder if stimulus will swoop by in time to save these jobs. I'm leaning towards not; at this point it seems a lot like throwing good money after bad. If I were to put any more into airlines it would be Delta. They've so far proven to be very competent in dealing with Covid, not requiring massive layoffs, and have figured a way to avoid furloughs. I've also already flew once during this covid time, and I can easily say Delta is doing everything in their power to keep their planes extremely sanitized. | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On September 11 2020 18:47 BlackJack wrote: What resources do you guys follow for information on what might be a good investment? If I'm following companies, just follow the news around the companies you're likely to invest in. Look into their market caps, their cash amount, is their CEO not an idiot? Then take a look around in some of the normal market gathering sites like Stocktwits. Daily traders at big banks have also lately been doing calls straight based on WallStreetBets reddit threads. I like looking into WSB just to see what they're up too usually, not that I recommend following, but I can say there are times some one posts some wonderful analysis. | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On September 16 2020 09:41 LegalLord wrote: Anyone look at real estate lately (actual properties more so than REITs and the like)? Looks like a really strange frozen market. Selling is down, prices are flat, and there's every indication that landlords are dealing with significant financial pressure. Given how absurdly dependent our economy is on maintaining rising housing prices, it's no surprise that desperate measures were taken to backstop that part of the economy. Lower interest rates, and in the US, a whole year of legislated forbearance for a wide swath of mortgages. It doesn't look anywhere as capricious as the stock market, but very much unsettling in its own way. I just bought a house, and where I live, it's a huge sellers market. There is barely any kind of inventory. Good luck trying to buy something below 400k, it's non existent in todays climate. The only reason I bought is due to as you mentioned interest rates. I got a stupid low rate on a 300k house in a million dollar neighborhood (quite a bargain for the area). | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18246 Posts
On September 17 2020 02:56 ShoCkeyy wrote: I just bought a house, and where I live, it's a huge sellers market. There is barely any kind of inventory. Good luck trying to buy something below 400k, it's non existent in todays climate. The only reason I bought is due to as you mentioned interest rates. I got a stupid low rate on a 300k house in a million dollar neighborhood (quite a bargain for the area). We bought a house. We were looking into buying anyway before Covid, and just went ahead with it. Many of the places we were looking at are still on the market now, months later. They may have been overpriced, but I think in general buyers are super hesitant right now because of the extreme uncertainty about what is going to happen. People may or may not lose their jobs, and the government may or may not continue amplified social security. Then when stuff stabilizes, the government may or may not raise all kinds of taxes on all kinds of stuff. Banks have great rates, but we had a hell of a time actually getting the mortgage. They have gone into super risk averse mode, so any whiff of any kind of problem and they run. But that's all very local, so how it compares to the US, I cannot say. Anyway, tons of stuff to do around the new house! We had no idea of the places one could find dirt!  | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On September 17 2020 02:56 ShoCkeyy wrote: I just bought a house, and where I live, it's a huge sellers market. There is barely any kind of inventory. Good luck trying to buy something below 400k, it's non existent in todays climate. The only reason I bought is due to as you mentioned interest rates. I got a stupid low rate on a 300k house in a million dollar neighborhood (quite a bargain for the area). It's always "huge seller's market with no inventory" in any city worth living in. Thing is, that situation is very much out of sync with the state of the economy, which suggests the market is being aggressively propped up (it is). Knowing that any pullback in housing prices will have a major impact on the economy as a whole, it's not hard to see why it would be so. I as well considered buying a house this year. I have the money and the interest rates were really nice. The sale prices, however, left something to be desired and are trending decidedly sideways. Feels like "wait and see" is the smarter strategy under those circumstances than to pay top dollar for a high-risk asset. On September 17 2020 07:24 Acrofales wrote: We bought a house. We were looking into buying anyway before Covid, and just went ahead with it. Many of the places we were looking at are still on the market now, months later. They may have been overpriced, but I think in general buyers are super hesitant right now because of the extreme uncertainty about what is going to happen. People may or may not lose their jobs, and the government may or may not continue amplified social security. Then when stuff stabilizes, the government may or may not raise all kinds of taxes on all kinds of stuff. What's happening to the prices themselves? Holding steady despite being on the market for a while, or are said sellers starting to offer discounts? | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
@below:not nessesarily within the next 2 weeks. But a fast crash taking 2 weeks totall somewhere in the coming 1-3 months. I dont think it will hold till election,i think huge chaos is ahead in the markets and also different areas of society,caused by the epidemic spiraling out of control again. (not a financial advice,lol. And again i hope i am wrong) | ||
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ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On September 19 2020 06:29 pmh wrote: How far and how fast will it drop this time,back to 20k in 2-3 months or a full crash in 1-2 weeks? What makes you say full crash in 1-2 weeks? If there is a crash i think it'll happen later down the road. This current US administration is using all it can to keep the markets propped up. Online retailers are hitting their best growth yet, and people are buying all types of shit so money is still flowing. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
Calgary is a bit of an oddball, because we have cheaper real estate than the other big cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal... Which to me suggests that there should be a net migration of business here. But oil struggling could lead to an immigration, idk. Overall I feel it's a decent time to buy, when a half million dollar house here costs 250k-300k in material, and the land itself has value, there's a bit of a limit of how much the value will drop. Most of the stuff is opening up now, just the big group entertainment is closed, like night clubs, strip clubs, pools, amusement parks, concerts, and sport events... But I would think that it's a pretty small percentage of the labour force. All the bars and restaurants, cinemas, etc have opened up. So to me it would seem like things should start returning to normal especially with quantitative easing and fiscal policy. I mean I still hold the unpopular opinion that our reactions to COVID are absolutely overblown. Closing down a school when someone in the school gets COVID, and the kid stays at home for two weeks and now the parents must take time off work for example is absurd to me. And so many half-assed things like seeing stickers in an elevator to please stand 2m apart, but outside the elevator it says 4 people max but the whole elevator is 2 by 2 meters. I get the impression that it's all about appearance, but a majority of people don't care. You just look like an insensitive prick if you're not wearing your mask. So I guess we will see if reality or appearances will win out. Hopefully someone took my tip on Methanex, that thing is going to 50 EOY, demotivating me to wake up for work in the morning (but seeing Suncor makes me reconsider lol). Also since trading = casino, anyone throwing some down on the US election? Seeing 50/50 odds is quite interesting. Reasonably close spread on big events. | ||
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