EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 45
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
On October 23 2020 12:32 LegalLord wrote: The real question is, are you going to be a wimp and merely buy the stock, or risk it all on a giant call option play? YOLO + Show Spoiler + | ||
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Simberto
Germany11974 Posts
On October 23 2020 12:21 BlackJack wrote: If Uber/Lyft stocks are expected to respond to whether or not Prop 22 passes then you could make money from correctly predicting the result. Seems like a better gamble to make since we have polls that give insight on how people will vote. I would guess that predictable stuff already has the probabilities built in. So there might be a shift in either direction if it passes or doesn't, but betting on it either way can go wrong just as likely as it could go right, because the current valuation is almost certainly somewhere in the middle of the resulting evaluation, where exactly depending on the perceived probabilities of results. If information is public, i would expect the people whose job it is to trade stocks to have already used this information. | ||
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
On October 23 2020 12:53 Simberto wrote: I would guess that predictable stuff already has the probabilities built in. So there might be a shift in either direction if it passes or doesn't, but betting on it either way can go wrong just as likely as it could go right, because the current valuation is almost certainly somewhere in the middle of the resulting evaluation, where exactly depending on the perceived probabilities of results. If information is public, i would expect the people whose job it is to trade stocks to have already used this information. You make a good point. I've considered that as well. It appears that just since we started talking about this, news came out that Uber/Lyft lost their appeal in the courts which means even more is riding on prop 22 when it comes to their operations in California | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On October 23 2020 12:53 Simberto wrote: I would guess that predictable stuff already has the probabilities built in. So there might be a shift in either direction if it passes or doesn't, but betting on it either way can go wrong just as likely as it could go right, because the current valuation is almost certainly somewhere in the middle of the resulting evaluation, where exactly depending on the perceived probabilities of results. If information is public, i would expect the people whose job it is to trade stocks to have already used this information. Seems like a play of "buy the rumor, sell the news" really. It's not consequential enough in the grand scheme of the company's operations, but you can make a killing on if you can properly gauge a wave of mob sentiment. By the time there's reasonable certainty in the final result, it's too late, but gambling on "people will be excited" is not the worst idea for the right stock. It's still a big, stupid risk on that things actually go your way rather than in the complete opposite direction when you make big short-term plays with limited info, and few people have the money, skill, and risk tolerance to be able to make it into a smart high expected value return play, so you might as well just play it as a lottery ticket by buying a lot of calls. Logically, the play would be to sit it out, but you're well past logic if you're trying for a "buy/sell this stock because of event X with highly probable outcome Y" gambit. | ||
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food
United States1951 Posts
On May 12 2019 14:27 BerserkSword wrote: Fortunately you dont have to involve yourself with the stock market and pattern day trading rules if you want to practice. The two best options for you, imo, are 1) Bitcoin 2) Foreign exchange (trading national currencies) Both allow you to trade with as little as you want, as much as you want. The Bitcoin market is 24/7 and the forex is 24/5, meaning u can practice outside of normal working hours. I chose those two for a reason. Bitcoin is extraordinary is that it's pretty much purely technical, meaning you can really hone your TA skills with it. It also moves MUCH faster than other markets, meaning you get to experience a wide range of market cycles within a shorter period of time, an extremely valuable exerpience. For example, 2018 in Bitcoin wouldve given you a master class on a bear market, something that is probably once in a generation for legacy markets. I know this quote is from 2019, but as someone that has some pocket change sitting around at one of the exchanges, what is the strategy with trading bitcoin? This reads like a quote from someone that knows what they are talking about, but it could be bs for all I know. Are there success stories on a micro scale and if so, how is this done? Is there some approach to staring at these real-time changes in price, or is it more focused around "buying the dip"? I'd love to learn about the methodology behind it. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4447 Posts
I know this quote is from 2019, but as someone that has some pocket change sitting around at one of the exchanges, what is the strategy with trading bitcoin? There is a bitcoin thread (infested with bots) but my 2c : May be a good idea to buy & hold until next year, Paypal announced recently cryptos will be able to be used to purchase through their platform.BTC and 3-4 others from memory.BCH was one for sure. System set to be finalised early next year so could see a boost when it is implemented (potential for superior purchasing power compared to holding USD for purchases). | ||
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food
United States1951 Posts
On October 25 2020 22:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: There is a bitcoin thread (infested with bots) but my 2c : May be a good idea to buy & hold until next year, Paypal announced recently cryptos will be able to be used to purchase through their platform.BTC and 3-4 others from memory.BCH was one for sure. System set to be finalised early next year so could see a boost when it is implemented (potential for superior purchasing power compared to holding USD for purchases). This is good info and I do agree there could be long-term value in some cryptos. I think the guy was talking about some quick up and down trading, which is a fun way to roll the dice. If they make money doing it, I'd love to hear how. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + $400k winnings on borrowing $140k to short the S&P 500, as a result of today's several-point crash. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
Disappointing how there's so much attention on stocks that have already ballooned or are a household name, rather than what I view future of tech like Qualcomm or Broadcom. Most people here probably don't follow Canadian oil too much, but Husky is being acquired by Cenovus, and so the acquisitions begin. I think the big 4 producers in Canada (Suncor, CNRL, Imperial, and Cenovus) will be buying up everything, as there isn't many who will be able to weather the storm. Quite a few interesting plays to be made in oil atm. In other news, been thinking through it and am going to go for the ultimate yolo play, just wanting to find a reputable bookie. If there was such a thing as free money, Biden in the US election is what it is. Looking for a Canadian one where >100k wagers can be placed. | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13480 Posts
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BlackJack
United States10574 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On November 05 2020 00:47 BlackJack wrote: Hah so prop 22 passed and Uber and Lyft stock surged. I ended up not doing anything and now I'm regretting it Yeah, think about how wealthy you would've been if you spent a large sum of money on buying calls on those companies. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17793 Posts
On September 25 2020 05:25 JudyRomero wrote: I recently started investing in real estate, which is super interesting but quite difficult KelianQatar bought a rental property in Virginia for $199,000 in December 2014. It is now worth $290,000. She does a giant tonne of research before buying and and she has a background in finance,.MBA. ..etc etc. Her first purchase she used as a rental property was a section 8 crackhouse. She lived in that first house while she fixed it up for ~10 months. Then she moved into a bigger house in a better neighbourhood and she rented out the place she fixed up. She used to "visit" her section 8 people by giving them a "free xmas dinner" and/or a "free easter dinner". She gave them the legally required notice. Framing it as a "free xmas/easter dinner" allowed most tenants drop their guard so she could see what was really going on in her rental units. I think she also did some July 4th thing as well in order to see what was going on in the summer. I'm too lazy to do all that work ... so i just ask her my real estate questions or get her to do the research for me.  | ||
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Vivax
22410 Posts
Make of it what you will. | ||
KwarK
United States44285 Posts
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Vivax
22410 Posts
On November 05 2020 16:22 KwarK wrote: He didn’t dump them yesterday, they were sold yesterday in accordance with the plan that was publicly filed months ago. When you own that much of a company you can’t dump shares on a whim. Good to know. + Show Spoiler + Does the filing appear when/before the shares land on the exchange (in the case that he sold them to an off-exchange counterparty before)? Either way, here's a chart that imo shows a close by correction or crash, source of the chart courtesy of twitters options lemon. Haven't tagged the blue line, that's where most of the support likely came from when the market bottomed in March, that support is now resting, and the GEX spike after the September correction is the highest recorded which according to Lemon signals negative returns on average for the next six months. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/QjouCvD.png) I'd wager 1-3 weeks tops of decent rallying before it reverses quickly. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
For once, a much better day to be in boomer stocks than in tech. Except Uber which had an uber strong rally today too, lol. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
Around 60% on my election wager cleared Friday morning, so I split that 50/50 between MX and SU (TSX) at 2x margin last week. Sold MX today before close at 46.50~, and still keeping Suncor... Nice little gain back to 19, still quite a ways to go to reach the 26 something breakeven. Will be interesting to see how the market responds to the vaccine news slowly leaking out. For example even if everyone gets the vaccine tomorrow, I highly doubt oil and real estate demand will go back to precovid levels. Surprised the thread didn't get more attention today though, this is the catalyst everyone has been waiting for. | ||
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