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BerserkSword
United States2123 Posts
On July 28 2020 09:20 GoTuNk! wrote: Long Live Bitcoin, best investment I will ever make  I bought in the 200s Will sell them all at 100k as a technical trader, though, I think we go to 2k or so before 100k not financial advice | ||
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Blitzkrieg0
United States13132 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11554 Posts
I think it should be pretty clear that everyone here are just people talking on a forum, not professionals giving professional advice. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium4849 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16767 Posts
On July 30 2020 00:10 Simberto wrote: A question: Why do a lot of people write something like "not financial advice" into their every post? Are there laws in the US that would make you more or less liable for stupid decisions people make based on a post in a forum depending on if you wrote that or not? I think it should be pretty clear that everyone here are just people talking on a forum, not professionals giving professional advice. KelianQatar was a professional day trader for several years and now publishes a financial advice newsletter with her sister-in-law. i think the newsletter has roughly 5,000 paid subscribers. | ||
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KelianQatar
303 Posts
On July 30 2020 00:10 Simberto wrote: A question: Why do a lot of people write something like "not financial advice" into their every post? Are there laws in the US that would make you more or less liable for stupid decisions people make based on a post in a forum depending on if you wrote that or not? I think it should be pretty clear that everyone here are just people talking on a forum, not professionals giving professional advice. We live in a very litigious world right now and you will see disclaimers for financial advice as well as health advice. I find that some people don't want to take responsibility for their own actions much less their own lives. My subscribers must sign a waiver in order to have access to the content in my news letter. And as a free bit of financial advice: ALWAYS CYA!! :D | ||
KwarK
United States42963 Posts
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Vivax
22029 Posts
Don't see how bitcoin can be worth more than actual precious metals. Betting on a crisis in commodity derivatives next. | ||
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pmh
1352 Posts
Thought behind this idea:The usa beeing more agressive with their printing then europe which is still somewhat conservative thx to germany (even though germany did losen up a bit recently). All currencys are under pressure but some more then others. Maybe it would be best to wait till after the election and see how that plays out first,there is no rush with this idea. Stockmarket going to crash again,not sure when but at the latest in the 1-2 months after the election. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
Movie Theatres Particularly in Canada, quite a few Canadians posting here, so thought it'd be a good place. Cineplex (CGX) for example, 160 locations, market cap of 500mil, still think it's a bit high, but say an entry at the $4-$6 level. I felt the airlines, cruises, and whatnot had a lot more attention on them, and were pumped a bit more than their true valuation if that's even a thing. But there's a lot of fear that nobody will go to the movies anymore, production studios put everything on hold... Idk. It's tough for me to imagine a world without movie theatres, it's like bowling alleys, it's just a thing people like to do sometimes. Cable has been around for a long time and revenues on movies have still been there. To me the big risk is they declare bankruptcy, and some other company buys them out and the shareholders are screwed. I know for most people it's one of those don't touch with a 10 foot pole type stocks, just trying to find some medium term (5 year stocks with potential)... I think energy is a big one, I think financials is another big one. I don't like technology, my gut says that's not sustainable for too much longer. There's some industries where the fear is warranted, but some that the fear overshoots what the industry is actually facing. Idk, maybe everyone will become a lot less outdoorsy and technology will be 99% of life, and in that sense, the tech valuation makes sense... And it's just old farts like me thinking that VHS tapes and theatres will still be around. It's interesting though, I thought I had a good idea about what the world would look like after COVID, and where we are trending to at what rate, but when it comes to put my money on it, I begin to doubt myself and try to rationalize every perspective. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18049 Posts
Substitute Pathe for any other large cinema operator. | ||
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RenSC2
United States1063 Posts
Having said that, I would expect some bankruptcies. AMC (a large theater company in the US) lost more than $5/share last quarter, lost $20/share two quarters ago, and is expected to lose over $3/share the next one. Hard to see how they stay in business without a bankruptcy reorganization, but maybe they’ll survive and be a bargain... price is low, but seems kinda high for a company on the abyss. Too risky for my taste, but there could be some good returns if things work out. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
I guess people really like "safe haven" assets right now? Makes sense, all things considered. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On August 23 2020 01:22 LegalLord wrote: So, tech and gold are doing well. Airlines and related companies have given up most of their brief-but-exuberant gains. S&P500 is back to February levels and NASDAQ is better. I guess people really like "safe haven" assets right now? Makes sense, all things considered. To me everything is fairly logical too, I don't really consider them safe havens. COVID economic impact is a lot smaller than it's made out to be, because we're trying to make it socially a really big thing. The US is printing 80B / month, and it was up to 75B / day sometime in April iirc, so what are you supposed to do with money? Inflation happens, so no point keeping it in cash, bonds, no thanks... I guess real estate, but prices don't seem like they dropped much, not sure if it was mortgage deferral keeping people afloat, but regardless there wasn't that same dip to buy that the stock market had. I think people are more are more realizing that tech is in every aspect of their life, Covid maybe exemplified it a bit, but I don't think the valuations are absurd. I'm slowly coming to that realization after thinking we're heading towards 1999 again, but imo they're very different circumstances. Everything is slowly trending up, even airlines, O&G, entertainment, nobody knows what happened in June 8th, but if you regard it as noise in the long term graph, makes sense. Anyway, when you're looking short term, the idea that SP500 is at 3400 isn't particularly impressive. It had a gain of 70% in the 4.5 years before covid, we lost 6 months, but if you extrapolate that 70% right before COVID started... Then SP500 at 6000 in 4 years doesn't seem absurd to me. To me it's so silly buying precious metals as a store of value, or an investment, it's a hedge against an apocalypse, but not business cycles. I wonder how much is speculation, versus demand going up to use as a hedge. | ||
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Vivax
22029 Posts
On August 23 2020 09:37 FiWiFaKi wrote: To me it's so silly buying precious metals as a store of value, or an investment, it's a hedge against an apocalypse, but not business cycles. I wonder how much is speculation, versus demand going up to use as a hedge. Even in an apocalypse they aren't much good. They are limited in quantity of which the apparant amount is imo distorted by futures and anyone can be the counterparty. If you want to sell stock you need a buyer which is something easily overlooked. In the stocks worst case, in a banking crisis or similar you open up the portfolio and then place an order that just doesn't get executed while the price keeps going down as small specs get frontrun. Same for crypto and gold futures/ETFs. If I have physical metal and need cash I can walk to a sane bank, a mint or the national bank and sell it. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On August 23 2020 09:37 FiWiFaKi wrote: COVID economic impact is a lot smaller than it's made out to be, because we're trying to make it socially a really big thing. The economy? That thing that just saw the biggest quarterly GDP drop in history despite a truly mind-boggling amount of money being pumped into it? Nah, that impact is exactly as severe as it looks. The stock market impact has certainly been less-than-expected. Assuming you picked into tech, gold, or other stocks of similar growth profiles of course. Plenty of bad choices out there to lose money or flatline on. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On August 24 2020 00:18 LegalLord wrote: The economy? That thing that just saw the biggest quarterly GDP drop in history despite a truly mind-boggling amount of money being pumped into it? Nah, that impact is exactly as severe as it looks. The stock market impact has certainly been less-than-expected. Assuming you picked into tech, gold, or other stocks of similar growth profiles of course. Plenty of bad choices out there to lose money or flatline on. The GDP drop was large, but it was controlled. The government told people which business will need to shut down, and that they will borrow more money and pay them in the meantime. I mean it really was a mutual understanding of let's go into recession to potentially prevent the black death. Almost all industries have been recovering since early April on the stock market, just not at 20% a month like AAPL (though with everything but tech you'd be down if you bought pre COVID). Not too many posts people discussing their investments recently, but it's been so boring last couple months if you're a long term safe player, since COVID: -Vfv going with SP500, so nice steady gains there, appreciating CAD dollar is hurting me a bit, was thinking about going with VSP instead, since the rate was 1.36 when I purchased. My gut feeling was that Canada had a much more f'ed future than the US, so we'll see how it plays out... Canada with practically no desireable goods on the international market and highest increases in debt due to the most generous COVID benefits which will surely increase tax rates in the future... Vs JPow. +$9000 -Suncor, T_T I feel like a bagholder on this one loaded up on margin, but my fellow Canadian TL'ers, fill up at Petro Canada please. Looking back, maybe CNRL has more of that imperialist buy everything as small companies are struggling that I was looking for... But... Actually idk, diamond hands now. Oil still has a future, nothing new being drilled right now, so supply will start running thin a few years from now. Seems like a 3-5 year play imo. -$18000 -Methanex... If there ever was such a thing as free money in the stock market, this would be it. Take a look and do your research on it. My exclusive TL tip. +$22000 -TD Bank, I think it provides the best services along with Rbc in Canada, and they have an effective marketing presence from what I've seen here. 70-75 dollar price in two years is what I expect, plus a juicy 5% dividend. +$6000 | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On August 24 2020 00:42 FiWiFaKi wrote: The GDP drop was large, but it was controlled. The government told people which business will need to shut down, and that they will borrow more money and pay them in the meantime. I mean it really was a mutual understanding of let's go into recession to potentially prevent the black death. Yeah no shit there was a lockdown - the questionable assertion is that it's all going to go back to normal when this is "over." Looking at the unemployment numbers and the financial headwinds on the horizon, it's hard to see that happening. But conversely, it's not hard to see why stocks get bid up from a big cheap-money injection (albeit much more heavily weighted towards tech & gold than most other sectors; lots are still down a lot since February), and then why some folks try to find economic justification for something that needs no more of an explanation than QE. As for "how have my investments done" - yeah, you pretty much captured it. Up significantly from mid-March lows on a mix primarily of index funds and cash, but neither spectacular gains nor losses. Meh. | ||
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ZerOCoolSC2
8998 Posts
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On August 24 2020 03:21 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: Shoulda have hooped on that Kodak train! /s Lol, I tried putting a few grand into $15 Kodk put a month out when it was $35-$37, but my account wasn't configured for it. Haven't had the urge to buy options before that. I took a look because I do have a margin account with it options enabled, but the bid-ask spread seem really high, too small of a market in Canada. I do enjoy visiting WSB, as well as the idea of selling covered calls on my positions, like 5-10% OTM with 30 day expiries, however hard to do on Canadian equities. But yeah, overall, going to r/wsb is not conductive to a healthy investing career haha. Those fuckers going from 20k to 500K in a week on Tesla, in what seems like every week. But yeah, I'm more numb to FOMO now. I sold a lot of my positions mid-May thinking thinking that the run-up was too quick, and when everything kept going up, I bought into Suncor like 4 days before that peak, so long term it won't be the biggest deal if the pick was good, but definitely felt that emotional FOMO feeling I reflected back on. | ||
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