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Trading/Investing Thread - Page 40

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LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
July 03 2020 05:49 GMT
#781
On July 03 2020 04:50 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Anyone have any insights into the energy sector and if it'll grow?

Shale is probably a dead end. Sell sell sell. Could potentially play on the volatility of bankrupt companies like Whiting or Chesapeake if you want to play some bagholder hot potato.

Large, stable O&G companies are probably a decent long-term bet. A company like Gazprom is, for example, trading at a significant discount relative to its pre-virus price. Reasonably likely that prices will eventually recover for the companies that don't fall apart from several months of slow business.

The "new energy" type companies are all fluff, so pick whichever one you like and hope you either picked a winner or do well on the pump-and-dump.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-03 14:32:15
July 03 2020 14:31 GMT
#782
I would take the opposite side of that bet. Lots of reasons to think that O&G buyers will prefer American produced shale energy over Russian in the next couple decades. But who knows.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
July 03 2020 15:13 GMT
#783
Buy Exxon or Shell if you think Russian is a bad bet. It doesn’t take more than the most cursory glance to see that shale is trash.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
July 03 2020 19:48 GMT
#784
prices could def recover to where shale is viable again, but that's a pretty high risk bet - but i imagine the rewards are solid given how low prices (for stocks) are now.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
July 04 2020 05:45 GMT
#785
On July 04 2020 04:48 ticklishmusic wrote:
prices could def recover to where shale is viable again

I don't really see oil going back to $130, to be honest.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
CorsairHero
Profile Joined December 2008
Canada9491 Posts
July 04 2020 06:32 GMT
#786
no one saw oil going to -50 either
© Current year.
Blitzkrieg0
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States13132 Posts
July 04 2020 12:24 GMT
#787
On July 04 2020 14:45 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 04 2020 04:48 ticklishmusic wrote:
prices could def recover to where shale is viable again

I don't really see oil going back to $130, to be honest.


There is going to be a supply problem if the US and Russia turn off the taps. The interesting thing is timing because if they stop then it could take a year or two before they can drill back in to extract. I can't see OPEC and Saudi Arabia bullying the US and Russia out of production though. Having oil is too big of a strategic necessity for the US to ever stop drilling even at a loss.
I'll always be your shadow and veil your eyes from states of ain soph aur.
[UoN]Sentinel
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States11320 Posts
July 06 2020 14:07 GMT
#788
On July 02 2020 23:48 LegalLord wrote:
Nikola being worth about the same as Ford despite having no product to speak of is comparably remarkable.

QE infinity plus horrendous fundamentals is an amazing combo. Looks like it's a good time to be in speculative / meme stocks, bad time to be in "value" stocks.

Tech has been on a tear and continues to do so
Нас зовет дух отцов, память старых бойцов, дух Москвы и твердыня Полтавы
ShoCkeyy
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
7815 Posts
July 06 2020 17:58 GMT
#789
On July 03 2020 04:50 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Anyone have any insights into the energy sector and if it'll grow?


It's growing. More people want reliable energy not removed from the earth, which is why Tesla has been booming. Nikola doesn't even have a product and already have been booming too. Energy is the new bitcoin in the coming years imo.
Life?
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
21972 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-07 17:49:00
July 07 2020 17:34 GMT
#790
As long as the 10y UST remains stable it should keep going up.
Last major correction @ 6/10 was associated with a brief spike in yield going back down. Spike also meant a big devaluation of the dollar measured against the Franc.

In a way it seems logical. If you want the yield to remain constant you have to increase the debt, so the nominal amount paid out remains the same. Explains the monstrous government spending.

Gold surge would be a bad signal though. See 05/30/19
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1352 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-09 14:43:34
July 09 2020 14:28 GMT
#791
Regarding the energy sector: There was an interesting perspective on different sectors today on a local news channel.
It had to do with bidens changes to become president. The worst 2 sectors this year have been the defence and the energy sector. These sectors have recoverd far less then other sectors. It was speculated that this was a reflection of bidens increasing odds to win in november. Both sectors did benefit from trump,because of less regulation for shale amongst others. Biden is supposed to bring back some regulation and restrictions which would be negative for the shale sector (which makes up a big part of the us energy sector).

As a whole everything will keep growing but some sectors will do better then others. Us tech has been the best sector for a very long time now but it is priced accordingly. Maybe energy is "cheap" right now and can make a strong comeback if trump gets re-elected since the market now seems to calculate a biden win into the valuations.
In the tech sector much more air can be build up then in other sectors,it tries to valuate sales in the far future based on a large expected growth of the sector as a whole which does come with a lot of uncertainty. So while it is the "best" sector in general,it is also a quiet risky one.

It would be kinda interesting if biden wins without ever getting into the spotlight. Maybe he can keep hiding all the way till november lol.
Trump is a bully,he benefits from having an opponent he can attack. As long as biden does not give trump an opening to shift the focus he could possibly win without any serious campaigning. Not on his own strenghts but mostly because of the weakness of his opponent. So far democrats did well,attacks from the sidelines by other democrats and even some ex members of trumps own administration while avoiding a head to head confrontation of biden vs trump.
Its the democrats election to lose. If from here on they do nothing they will win i think,the only way for them to lose is to spoil it themselves which is well within their capabilities. I dunno just some random thought about the election.
BorisSutherland
Profile Joined June 2020
4 Posts
July 14 2020 17:30 GMT
#792
--- Nuked ---
PippaMartin
Profile Joined July 2020
1 Post
July 14 2020 19:58 GMT
#793
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23221 Posts
July 26 2020 23:10 GMT
#794
What is this crowd expecting out of talks about another (more tepid) relief package out of the US?

Did the market ignore the politicians and price in a 3rd/4th quarter recession/depression or did the market believe the US economy would be back up and running soon?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
July 26 2020 23:30 GMT
#795
On July 27 2020 08:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
What is this crowd expecting out of talks about another (more tepid) relief package out of the US?

Probably another eleventh-hour relief package. One that will provide relief.

On July 27 2020 08:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
Did the market ignore the politicians and price in a 3rd/4th quarter recession/depression or did the market believe the US economy would be back up and running soon?

The market has priced in that no matter how long things go and no matter how bad things get, the government will bail out everyone and everything. Nothing about the current situation changes any of that, so we're good to go.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1352 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-27 00:28:20
July 27 2020 00:21 GMT
#796
The market has priced in that no matter how long things go and no matter how bad things get, the government will bail out everyone and everything. Nothing about the current situation changes any of that.

Yes pretty much this for now though i dont think we are good to go.
Most people vastly underestimate how serious the situation is on a fundamental level.

(edited out most of my post).

ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
8982 Posts
July 27 2020 00:30 GMT
#797
Leave it. It's needed and relevant. That's what I keep explaining to people who come to the bar and complain. This is exactly how I see things.
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4329 Posts
July 27 2020 14:25 GMT
#798
On July 27 2020 09:21 pmh wrote:
The market has priced in that no matter how long things go and no matter how bad things get, the government will bail out everyone and everything. Nothing about the current situation changes any of that.

Yes pretty much this for now though i dont think we are good to go.
Most people vastly underestimate how serious the situation is on a fundamental level.

(edited out most of my post).


Collapse of the fiat system is severe indeed, most people are totally unaware of course.

Gold new all time high yesterday, silver up 30% this month, even Bitcoin up 10% past fortnight.Smart money and funds are moving in.Could get a short consolidation depending on FOMC and profit taking.

Interested in upcoming US CPI numbers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
GoTuNk!
Profile Blog Joined September 2006
Chile4591 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-07-28 00:21:24
July 28 2020 00:20 GMT
#799
Long Live Bitcoin, best investment I will ever make
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9858 Posts
July 29 2020 00:07 GMT
#800
If you guys had to take a stab at a long term prediction (let's say 5 years) on SP500, what is your guys' gut feeling? Extending the trend line would suggest 4500+ haha, but pessimism seems rather high right now, I view it as a bit irrational... But idk, at the same time it seems like there's more focus on maintance rather than growth right now, so idk. What's your take on the possibility of a lost decade?
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
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