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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On July 03 2020 04:50 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Anyone have any insights into the energy sector and if it'll grow?
Shale is probably a dead end. Sell sell sell. Could potentially play on the volatility of bankrupt companies like Whiting or Chesapeake if you want to play some bagholder hot potato.
Large, stable O&G companies are probably a decent long-term bet. A company like Gazprom is, for example, trading at a significant discount relative to its pre-virus price. Reasonably likely that prices will eventually recover for the companies that don't fall apart from several months of slow business.
The "new energy" type companies are all fluff, so pick whichever one you like and hope you either picked a winner or do well on the pump-and-dump.
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I would take the opposite side of that bet. Lots of reasons to think that O&G buyers will prefer American produced shale energy over Russian in the next couple decades. But who knows.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
Buy Exxon or Shell if you think Russian is a bad bet. It doesn’t take more than the most cursory glance to see that shale is trash.
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prices could def recover to where shale is viable again, but that's a pretty high risk bet - but i imagine the rewards are solid given how low prices (for stocks) are now.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On July 04 2020 04:48 ticklishmusic wrote:
prices could def recover to where shale is viable again
I don't really see oil going back to $130, to be honest.
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no one saw oil going to -50 either
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On July 04 2020 14:45 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2020 04:48 ticklishmusic wrote:
prices could def recover to where shale is viable again I don't really see oil going back to $130, to be honest.
There is going to be a supply problem if the US and Russia turn off the taps. The interesting thing is timing because if they stop then it could take a year or two before they can drill back in to extract. I can't see OPEC and Saudi Arabia bullying the US and Russia out of production though. Having oil is too big of a strategic necessity for the US to ever stop drilling even at a loss.
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On July 02 2020 23:48 LegalLord wrote:
Nikola being worth about the same as Ford despite having no product to speak of is comparably remarkable.
QE infinity plus horrendous fundamentals is an amazing combo. Looks like it's a good time to be in speculative / meme stocks, bad time to be in "value" stocks.
Tech has been on a tear and continues to do so
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On July 03 2020 04:50 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
Anyone have any insights into the energy sector and if it'll grow?
It's growing. More people want reliable energy not removed from the earth, which is why Tesla has been booming. Nikola doesn't even have a product and already have been booming too. Energy is the new bitcoin in the coming years imo.
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As long as the 10y UST remains stable it should keep going up.
Last major correction @ 6/10 was associated with a brief spike in yield going back down. Spike also meant a big devaluation of the dollar measured against the Franc.
In a way it seems logical. If you want the yield to remain constant you have to increase the debt, so the nominal amount paid out remains the same. Explains the monstrous government spending.
Gold surge would be a bad signal though. See 05/30/19
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Regarding the energy sector: There was an interesting perspective on different sectors today on a local news channel.
It had to do with bidens changes to become president. The worst 2 sectors this year have been the defence and the energy sector. These sectors have recoverd far less then other sectors. It was speculated that this was a reflection of bidens increasing odds to win in november. Both sectors did benefit from trump,because of less regulation for shale amongst others. Biden is supposed to bring back some regulation and restrictions which would be negative for the shale sector (which makes up a big part of the us energy sector).
As a whole everything will keep growing but some sectors will do better then others. Us tech has been the best sector for a very long time now but it is priced accordingly. Maybe energy is "cheap" right now and can make a strong comeback if trump gets re-elected since the market now seems to calculate a biden win into the valuations.
In the tech sector much more air can be build up then in other sectors,it tries to valuate sales in the far future based on a large expected growth of the sector as a whole which does come with a lot of uncertainty. So while it is the "best" sector in general,it is also a quiet risky one.
It would be kinda interesting if biden wins without ever getting into the spotlight. Maybe he can keep hiding all the way till november lol.
Trump is a bully,he benefits from having an opponent he can attack. As long as biden does not give trump an opening to shift the focus he could possibly win without any serious campaigning. Not on his own strenghts but mostly because of the weakness of his opponent. So far democrats did well,attacks from the sidelines by other democrats and even some ex members of trumps own administration while avoiding a head to head confrontation of biden vs trump.
Its the democrats election to lose. If from here on they do nothing they will win i think,the only way for them to lose is to spoil it themselves which is well within their capabilities. I dunno just some random thought about the election.
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What is this crowd expecting out of talks about another (more tepid) relief package out of the US?
Did the market ignore the politicians and price in a 3rd/4th quarter recession/depression or did the market believe the US economy would be back up and running soon?
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On July 27 2020 08:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
What is this crowd expecting out of talks about another (more tepid) relief package out of the US?
Probably another eleventh-hour relief package. One that will provide relief.
On July 27 2020 08:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
Did the market ignore the politicians and price in a 3rd/4th quarter recession/depression or did the market believe the US economy would be back up and running soon?
The market has priced in that no matter how long things go and no matter how bad things get, the government will bail out everyone and everything. Nothing about the current situation changes any of that, so we're good to go.
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The market has priced in that no matter how long things go and no matter how bad things get, the government will bail out everyone and everything. Nothing about the current situation changes any of that.
Yes pretty much this for now though i dont think we are good to go.
Most people vastly underestimate how serious the situation is on a fundamental level.
(edited out most of my post).
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Leave it. It's needed and relevant. That's what I keep explaining to people who come to the bar and complain. This is exactly how I see things.
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On July 27 2020 09:21 pmh wrote:
The market has priced in that no matter how long things go and no matter how bad things get, the government will bail out everyone and everything. Nothing about the current situation changes any of that.
Yes pretty much this for now though i dont think we are good to go.
Most people vastly underestimate how serious the situation is on a fundamental level.
(edited out most of my post).
Collapse of the fiat system is severe indeed, most people are totally unaware of course.
Gold new all time high yesterday, silver up 30% this month, even Bitcoin up 10% past fortnight.Smart money and funds are moving in.Could get a short consolidation depending on FOMC and profit taking.
Interested in upcoming US CPI numbers.
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Long Live Bitcoin, best investment I will ever make 
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If you guys had to take a stab at a long term prediction (let's say 5 years) on SP500, what is your guys' gut feeling? Extending the trend line would suggest 4500+ haha, but pessimism seems rather high right now, I view it as a bit irrational... But idk, at the same time it seems like there's more focus on maintance rather than growth right now, so idk. What's your take on the possibility of a lost decade?
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EPT
