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Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
Fuckup: I put in an order to buy TQQQ puts with some of the cash I got for the calls and it didn’t get filled. Would have 4xed by now  If we go like 20%-30%more down on SPY I’m thinking of just buying straight up TQQQ shares and riding the recovery lol. Major regret not doing that during the first crash | ||
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Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
On June 12 2020 01:21 Vivax wrote: Result of Trump playing with the dollar in his easy to win trade war imho. Physical deliveries of gold at the comex coupled with dumping of other commodities blew it up. When you manage 3.5 trillions in derivatives while holding around a billion in cash that can become a systemic problem. At some point if he keeps printing they can't stop the lid from flying off gold. Movement of 3% in some forex currencies also suggest real distress. Gold feels like a purely speculative tool to me. I’d also be curious as to what percentage of mined gold is used in physical products rather than “held” by investors. Jerome mentioned the other day he expects to stay under inflation targets, doesn’t give a fuck about asset bubbles, and that his main goal is full employment (or rather probably NAIRU). So gold doesn’t seem like a great purchase considering inflation may stay low? If you do think inflation is really going to happen I would think the best investment would be in heavily indebted equities like Ford rather than gold (or in financed real estate purchases at fixed rates). Inflation can do amazing things for companies’ balance sheets | ||
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Vivax
22339 Posts
Phys gold is the hedge against unhinged money printing (which is not like QE) so makes sense to hold if you‘re more on the bearish side like me. So far in history most fiat went to zero. | ||
KwarK
United States44017 Posts
On June 12 2020 04:36 Vivax wrote: Bond holders sort of overrule stock holders in a bankruptcy, the hertz price surge was almost a meme. Phys gold is the hedge against unhinged money printing (which is not like QE) so makes sense to hold if you‘re more on the bearish side like me. So far in history most fiat went to zero. Sort of? | ||
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Vivax
22339 Posts
Definitely. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Oil took a nice 10% plunge today. Was wondering when that would happen. On June 12 2020 03:51 Chocolate wrote: Gold feels like a purely speculative tool to me. I’d also be curious as to what percentage of mined gold is used in physical products rather than “held” by investors. Jerome mentioned the other day he expects to stay under inflation targets, doesn’t give a fuck about asset bubbles, and that his main goal is full employment (or rather probably NAIRU). So gold doesn’t seem like a great purchase considering inflation may stay low? If you do think inflation is really going to happen I would think the best investment would be in heavily indebted equities like Ford rather than gold (or in financed real estate purchases at fixed rates). Inflation can do amazing things for companies’ balance sheets I as well am skeptical of gold. It can be a good investment but in the medium term it doesn't seem like it's a great "haven" investment during recessions or giant bubbles. Only exception seems to be during the Great Depression but that has a lot to do with the end of the gold standard in many countries. Fed is going to do its best to prop up the asset bubble I guess. Depending on when you ask I suppose they either have infinite ammo or they're all out. Inflation will be low by virtue of inflating the price of all assets while having consumer prices remain low, a pretty piss-poor definition of inflation to be honest. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
-14% on Suncor -15% on TD -3% on Vfv (at least CAD is depreciating like I expected) Thank god I didn't go wsb on weekly calls haha, but yeah, definitely FOMO'ed last week and played it emotionally after trying to get in when a couple of my friends made 6 figures in the previous week. Ah well, diamond hands now, though it doesn't feel nice to watch those margin ratios get squeezed. All things considered they're not massive losses, but haven't really had any drops that big yet. Not too keen on holding oil long term though. | ||
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Vivax
22339 Posts
As for gold, it's pretty much just a similar argument as for bitcoin (scarcity), except that central banks hoard gold, not bitcoin, and it's historically tested so to say. The commodity futures market is a bit of a sketchy story apparently. I wouldn't be surprised if in the scenario where CBs issue loans to stabilize prices like now, even copper could go negative. We're in a stage imo where volatility comes in shorter intervals and more hefty. But for long term holders of equities, they can expect to be on the winning side of the trade when compared to currencies imho.It just keeps surprising me how CBs don't demand new stock or bond issuance compared to plain old bailouts. Makes you wonder who has the bigger leverage. https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix? I always keep an eye on above link. GEX especially tends to be leading for corrections or crashes by weeks to months when it spikes to unusually high values. DIX just tells me how much the market is being held up off-exchange. | ||
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IgnE
United States7681 Posts
On June 12 2020 09:56 Vivax wrote: I was thinking to myself that Fiwi had some guts to go for banks. Though buying a bank is imo as risky as buying derivatives from one, so might as well. As for gold, it's pretty much just a similar argument as for bitcoin (scarcity), except that central banks hoard gold, not bitcoin, and it's historically tested so to say. The commodity futures market is a bit of a sketchy story apparently. I wouldn't be surprised if in the scenario where CBs issue loans to stabilize prices like now, even copper could go negative. We're in a stage imo where volatility comes in shorter intervals and more hefty. But for long term holders of equities, they can expect to be on the winning side of the trade when compared to currencies imho.It just keeps surprising me how CBs don't demand new stock or bond issuance compared to plain old bailouts. Makes you wonder who has the bigger leverage. https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix? I always keep an eye on above link. GEX especially tends to be leading for corrections or crashes by weeks to months when it spikes to unusually high values. DIX just tells me how much the market is being held up off-exchange. How much do you think gold is worth in Mad Max? | ||
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Vivax
22339 Posts
You mean an irradiated desert world where fuel and water are essential? Or a more contemporary scenario. On June 12 2020 14:19 IgnE wrote: You can answer both if you want. I'll take the contemporary. You go to a central bank or by extension some commercial bank and sell it there. If they don't exist you barter. The medieval age was close enough to mad max and they used silver and gold coins. | ||
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IgnE
United States7681 Posts
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
On June 12 2020 09:56 Vivax wrote: I was thinking to myself that Fiwi had some guts to go for banks. Though buying a bank is imo as risky as buying derivatives from one, so might as well. As for gold, it's pretty much just a similar argument as for bitcoin (scarcity), except that central banks hoard gold, not bitcoin, and it's historically tested so to say. The commodity futures market is a bit of a sketchy story apparently. I wouldn't be surprised if in the scenario where CBs issue loans to stabilize prices like now, even copper could go negative. We're in a stage imo where volatility comes in shorter intervals and more hefty. But for long term holders of equities, they can expect to be on the winning side of the trade when compared to currencies imho.It just keeps surprising me how CBs don't demand new stock or bond issuance compared to plain old bailouts. Makes you wonder who has the bigger leverage. https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix? I always keep an eye on above link. GEX especially tends to be leading for corrections or crashes by weeks to months when it spikes to unusually high values. DIX just tells me how much the market is being held up off-exchange. lol you have no idea on what the Canadian banking situation is | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States23991 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18298 Posts
On June 13 2020 05:01 GreenHorizons wrote: Anyone read the fine print on these fractional shares through Schwab? Seems sketchy to me. I haven't read them from Schwab (don't bank with them), but selling parts of shares is not really unusual. | ||
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Vivax
22339 Posts
Derivatives can be treated as collateral when the bank fails while shares cannot. | ||
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Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
On June 13 2020 07:27 Vivax wrote: The fine print should be that they're derivatives and not shares. Derivatives can be treated as collateral when the bank fails while shares cannot. No I'm about 90% sure that if a broker failed they would just sell all their fractional shares and return it to investors because of SIPC (and chances are if you're holding fractional shares, you're under the the SIPC limit) as fractional shares are still a security covered under this: https://www.sipc.org/about-sipc/statute-and-rules/statute#78lll. Maybe it's different in Austria though. Even if Schwab is putting something in their T&C to the contrary you can't void this kind of law by signing it. I would recommend not messing with fractional shares but I'm biased because I like using shares as collateral. I guess it's a good enough intro to new investors who don't even have enough money to buy full shares of stocks like google and amazon though. | ||
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TelecoM
United States10726 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On June 14 2020 13:31 GGzerG wrote: Ohh man this is a really interesting thread, I am new to all of this but excited to get started, anyone have any solid advice / sources for up and coming trader / investors ? Read a book or two, pick a strategy (from least to most speculative), research stocks, put in money. It’s about as complex as you choose to make it. | ||
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KwarK
United States44017 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18298 Posts
On June 14 2020 13:31 GGzerG wrote: Ohh man this is a really interesting thread, I am new to all of this but excited to get started, anyone have any solid advice / sources for up and coming trader / investors ? Go to your bank, and find what investment funds they have that match the risk you're willing to take with your money, and a spread of products you believe in. Funds are great, because they do all the diversification and management for you. You do pay a management fee though, which is generally rolled into the price. If you want a more hands-on approach with considerably more risk, you can buy stocks of companies you know and think are performing better than the market appears to indicate. This requires a lot of reading of financial opinions, market news, etc. But buying stocks directly will still, at worst, lose you all the money you invested. Similar for bonds. In advance, set yourself a target price (or percentage) and a time window, sell when your stock reaches that. Don't get greedy. Also use stoploss orders to mitigate your risk and ensure you don't lose more money than you can afford to. Reevaluate your position periodically and see if your target is still right. Neither of these require real in-depth knowledge, other than some basic understanding of what these products are and how to trade them. You will pick up more information about stuff as you read financial news, opinions and blogs. Some of it is legit and some of it is total bullshit. Distinguishing one from the other is mostly impossible, even for professionals. Always remember that a significant portion of professionals perform worse than a gorilla picking random stocks at a zoo in Amsterdam (https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2014/12/gorilla-fails-to-beat-amsterdam-blue-chip-index-for-second-time-in-15-years/). Finally, stay away from most derivatives. And in particular, options, futures and other leveraged products. These often allow you to perform operations beyond simply buying something now and selling it again in the future, but come with the risk of losing far more than just your initial investment. That's about the advice my dad gave me when I started investing, and it is imho still solid advice to stick with if you know nothing beyond some high school economy classes. | ||
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