EPTNikkei might actually be headed for a crack-up-boom, they're in late stage QE. If that happens for US markets depends on whether the Fed is willing to go in tandem still. They have to raise interest rates or let the market drop to keep the dollar stable.
Trading/Investing Thread - Page 37
| Forum Index > General Forum |
|
Vivax
22312 Posts
Nikkei might actually be headed for a crack-up-boom, they're in late stage QE. If that happens for US markets depends on whether the Fed is willing to go in tandem still. They have to raise interest rates or let the market drop to keep the dollar stable. | ||
|
LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On June 02 2020 02:37 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: 50 cities are on fire but green line go up States are opening back up, the protests are a distraction (in the grand scheme of "the economy") that will go away soon, and no one has really went bankrupt yet. A post-lockdown boom will surely bring things back to normal! Once people slowly realize that things aren't actually going to get better, i.e. when people realize this bad economy thing isn't just a brief hiccup, the real downside will manifest itself. Or the Fed will announce that it's buying all bad debt everywhere in the world, idk. | ||
|
Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
I think once we see payment deferrals come up we’re going to see another movement down. Basically a lot of corporations are going to see a haircut on their accounts receivable, a portion of consumers are going to be insolvent (eg renters who had rent deferred and can’t meet their deferred rent because their job doesn’t come back fast enough). There’s also the risk of a second wave or it taking a long time for consumer activity to resume to normal. I was really surprised when I saw a few of my OTM calls (Sunrun, Lyft) getting close to assignment this week. I’m going to let them assign me and hold cash. This is a good time to sell off if you missed the boat in February IMO | ||
|
Vivax
22312 Posts
Massive gold futures physical covering. Dollar dropping against the Franc yet again. Whatever happens, the moves are significant. Weeks of surprises ahead imo. Oh and dark pool buying also dropped yesterday, but dunno how it's going to look today. | ||
KwarK
United States43980 Posts
| ||
|
ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On June 05 2020 04:14 KwarK wrote: I put $40k in Boeing 3 weeks ago. That's gone pretty well. Up like $15k. Nice nice :D I'm in the same boat but with AAL, CCL, DAL, NCLH since the bottom. Currently AAL and NCLH are both my highest returns. | ||
|
Sermokala
United States14119 Posts
| ||
|
FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
When I wasn't investing large amounts I was fine putting it in and not paying attention to it, but sitting on my pile of cash and watching the market go up is shitty, much easier for me to hold a losing position than a winning one. Though I have to stick to my guns and not deviate from my planned strategy. Atleast strong Canadian dollar has been keeping up with SP500 gains, so I didn't lose anything by selling versus just keeping my position, just haven't taken advantage of the market rally these last 10 days. Good job on the profits though guys, don't get too greedy  | ||
|
LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
I'm still sticking to the play I made in early March: reduce (but not eliminate by a long stretch) stock exposure once the volatility started to look really scary, and hold a large cash position with a smaller but still substantial stock portfolio. Cash is good for handling the risk job instability, if it comes to that, plus for taking advantage of any lower-priced assets if the timing is right. Maybe I missed that timing. The economy could just tide this whole thing over as just a bump in the road, or it won't but the Fed will cause such glorious inflation that asset prices will rise and cash-holders will lose. Or maybe it's a bear rally and all these current gains will reverse course leading back to a deeper crash, so all the folks taking about big gains in their investment will be able to boast about five-figure losses. But the way I see it, I made my play and I've seen nothing to indicate that it's time to change course. I didn't sell off more stocks either, despite the fact that that was tempting on the downturn. The best way to be a bagholder is to get caught up in the FOMO and make decisions that end up being really stupid in hindsight. | ||
|
ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
| ||
|
KwarK
United States43980 Posts
| ||
|
[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
The biggest loss for me was not holding those SPY $330 calls all the way through the week, I honestly thought the riots would eventually cause some sort of drop. Also didn't expect the low unemployment figures ofc Tweet markets have been closed so I'll probably start moving money from my political gambling account to my option gambling account | ||
|
Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
On June 06 2020 02:47 KwarK wrote: I got out of Boeing today. It's okay to take some profits. $136 to $210. Grats! That’s awesome. Had some similar gains on Uber and Lyft but I had bought them during dips before Rona. I’m going to end up getting assigned on almost everything except some solar stocks I thought had their options underpriced. Still locking in some decent profits as I usually sell like 10-15% OTM. Also selling my vested RSUs. Going more heavily Cash gang because I still expect another dip as the exuberance wears off. At this point I’m convinced we’re going to see a second wave. Cases have stayed linear and we haven’t built up sufficient population resistance (like 1%?) to slow the spread. Even though it doesn’t kill people who aren’t elderly most of the time, it can still require hospitalization. I think the stocks that are heavily exposed to quarantining/SIP are now priced too high considering the risk | ||
|
ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
On June 06 2020 05:49 Chocolate wrote: Grats! That’s awesome. Had some similar gains on Uber and Lyft but I had bought them during dips before Rona. I’m going to end up getting assigned on almost everything except some solar stocks I thought had their options underpriced. Still locking in some decent profits as I usually sell like 10-15% OTM. Also selling my vested RSUs. Going more heavily Cash gang because I still expect another dip as the exuberance wears off. At this point I’m convinced we’re going to see a second wave. Cases have stayed linear and we haven’t built up sufficient population resistance (like 1%?) to slow the spread. Even though it doesn’t kill people who aren’t elderly most of the time, it can still require hospitalization. I think the stocks that are heavily exposed to quarantining/SIP are now priced too high considering the risk The fed goes brrrrrrrrrr.... No but seriously, they're buying up everything they can it looks like. At some point they're going to sell too and that's when I see shit will dip a lot again. A lot of people are thinking in 2021. | ||
|
Chocolate
United States2350 Posts
On June 06 2020 06:21 ShoCkeyy wrote: The fed goes brrrrrrrrrr.... No but seriously, they're buying up everything they can it looks like. At some point they're going to sell too and that's when I see shit will dip a lot again. A lot of people are thinking in 2021. I think those are bonds rather than equities. Though the paycheck protection program is also BRRing money out of thin air, I think that will end quite soon | ||
|
Vivax
22312 Posts
April 20: Former Singapore Billionaire Lim’s Oil Giant Files For Bankruptcy. Oil goes negative. April 23: JPMorgan says oil price collapse not a systemic risk to markets. May 21: Broker of USO blocks it from buying crude futures. CME 'other assets' and 'other liabilities': 31/12: 37441.4 Millions 31/3: 100687.7 Millions Methinks not just oil was about to go negative. Also big hedging spike in progress for S&P 500. Tends to precede drops by about 2 weeks, but can also repeatedly spike and precede a drop by roughly 2 months. Targeting August-October expiries for shorting. Or maybe Fed prints the dollar dead, who knows. | ||
|
Acrofales
Spain18290 Posts
| ||
|
ShoCkeyy
7815 Posts
| ||
|
LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Admittedly I missed the legendary airline stock flip of last week, so I don't have much to show for it. Hope y'all did well though. | ||
|
Vivax
22312 Posts
At some point if he keeps printing they can't stop the lid from flying off gold. Movement of 3% in some forex currencies also suggest real distress. | ||
| ||
