|
On April 01 2020 03:17 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 02:12 Vivax wrote:On April 01 2020 01:38 KwarK wrote:On April 01 2020 00:49 Vivax wrote:On April 01 2020 00:17 FiWiFaKi wrote:On March 31 2020 10:58 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
I've got some people asking me about stocks/bonds/mutuals to look at for investing. Any advice I should be giving them than to wait a bit? Waiting a bit is probably the only advice you shouldn't give them. Time in market is the #1 thing for most investors. I'd tell them to go to the bank and open up an investing account, don't know where you live, here that'd be a TFSA firstly. If they are under 35 and have an average risk tolerance, they should go see an advisor and ask about different ETF's. Individual stocks are fine, but giving them advice on them is like telling them what they should have for lunch. For most people I'd tell them to go buy an S&P500 etf today. Especially if they live in the US. I'll never understand this obsession with ETFs that most have. Though I'm biased because I detest the bloody things from the get go, they get advertised so heavily and I don't trust them. Btw I checked out the performance of an inverse 2x ETF (DAX 2x inverse something something) against the crash of the depictured index. Basically DAX went below Jan 16 levels but the ETF didn't come close to surpassing it's Jan 16 levels. So you aren't even guaranteed that something gets tracked perfectly. Maybe also because fees somewhere. An ETF is generally just a basket of investments that you can buy and sell. It’s pretty weird to hate baskets. You can hate the contents of baskets and there are certainly many baskets filled with stuff that I wouldn’t touch but hating baskets is an unusual stance. Are you sure you haven’t gotten confused between ETFs as a concept and some specific ETFs filled with things you don’t like? When you buy an ETF, to my knowledge the issuer can lend the underlying assets you paid for, exposing himself to counterparty risk, as well as having a risk of his own. When you buy stocks, nobody can touch your shares, and the only counterparty is the company you bought. Also because of distortions. Biggies like FAANG are the main price drivers behind the ETFs they are included in, dragging along every other company they are listed with to those companies benefit, no matter how profitable those are. On the other hand if the biggies start seeing heavy selling for some reason, other smaller companies listed with them would likely get hit much harder in comparison. I prefer to look at it as a boat with several rowers. Some row super strong, some might barely row at all but had a few good years. With the total debt of all companies in the boat being holes in the ship the strong rowers have to outpace. I might be seeing it too darkly, but to each his own. I'm a fan of stockpicking with a bit of options on the side when I feel like gambling. ETFs are no more vulnerable to embezzlement by the party holding the asset than anything else. I think it’s specific ETFs you’re not a fan of. For example your point about large cap companies being overweight in the ETFs they’re in applies to cap weighted index funds but ignores the existence of inversely cap weighted index funds (larger holdings in smaller companies). ETFs are a basket that can hold damn near anything.
I like to think of an ETF as lazy diversification. Lets say you want to invest in clean energy. A good investor would say that I should reduce my variance by investing in several companies. A clean energy ETF will do exactly that for you.
|
United States44283 Posts
On April 01 2020 03:32 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 03:17 KwarK wrote:On April 01 2020 02:12 Vivax wrote:On April 01 2020 01:38 KwarK wrote:On April 01 2020 00:49 Vivax wrote:On April 01 2020 00:17 FiWiFaKi wrote:On March 31 2020 10:58 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
I've got some people asking me about stocks/bonds/mutuals to look at for investing. Any advice I should be giving them than to wait a bit? Waiting a bit is probably the only advice you shouldn't give them. Time in market is the #1 thing for most investors. I'd tell them to go to the bank and open up an investing account, don't know where you live, here that'd be a TFSA firstly. If they are under 35 and have an average risk tolerance, they should go see an advisor and ask about different ETF's. Individual stocks are fine, but giving them advice on them is like telling them what they should have for lunch. For most people I'd tell them to go buy an S&P500 etf today. Especially if they live in the US. I'll never understand this obsession with ETFs that most have. Though I'm biased because I detest the bloody things from the get go, they get advertised so heavily and I don't trust them. Btw I checked out the performance of an inverse 2x ETF (DAX 2x inverse something something) against the crash of the depictured index. Basically DAX went below Jan 16 levels but the ETF didn't come close to surpassing it's Jan 16 levels. So you aren't even guaranteed that something gets tracked perfectly. Maybe also because fees somewhere. An ETF is generally just a basket of investments that you can buy and sell. It’s pretty weird to hate baskets. You can hate the contents of baskets and there are certainly many baskets filled with stuff that I wouldn’t touch but hating baskets is an unusual stance. Are you sure you haven’t gotten confused between ETFs as a concept and some specific ETFs filled with things you don’t like? When you buy an ETF, to my knowledge the issuer can lend the underlying assets you paid for, exposing himself to counterparty risk, as well as having a risk of his own. When you buy stocks, nobody can touch your shares, and the only counterparty is the company you bought. Also because of distortions. Biggies like FAANG are the main price drivers behind the ETFs they are included in, dragging along every other company they are listed with to those companies benefit, no matter how profitable those are. On the other hand if the biggies start seeing heavy selling for some reason, other smaller companies listed with them would likely get hit much harder in comparison. I prefer to look at it as a boat with several rowers. Some row super strong, some might barely row at all but had a few good years. With the total debt of all companies in the boat being holes in the ship the strong rowers have to outpace. I might be seeing it too darkly, but to each his own. I'm a fan of stockpicking with a bit of options on the side when I feel like gambling. ETFs are no more vulnerable to embezzlement by the party holding the asset than anything else. I think it’s specific ETFs you’re not a fan of. For example your point about large cap companies being overweight in the ETFs they’re in applies to cap weighted index funds but ignores the existence of inversely cap weighted index funds (larger holdings in smaller companies). ETFs are a basket that can hold damn near anything. I like to think of an ETF as lazy diversification. Lets say you want to invest in clean energy. A good investor would say that I should reduce my variance by investing in several companies. A clean energy ETF will do exactly that for you.
Again, that’s a conflation of the basket and the contents. You could theoretically make an incredibly non diverse ETF. It’s just a basket. ETFs made up of stuff people commonly desire bundled together, such as a variety of clean energy companies, exist but my point, that Vivax saying he doesn’t like ETFs is as absurd as saying he doesn’t like baskets, is true because an ETF can contain all sorts of contrasting things.
|
It's not even "lazy" to use an index ETF. It's not like through hard work you're going to build up a portfolio of 20000 globally publicly traded stocks in your portfolio and expect it to be cap weighted. Also for some, an index ETF is the only way to get access to markets they can't get to like emerging markets.
|
For Americans it would probably be wise to pay attention to the dollars value against other currencies before deciding what to buy. Saw a chart about DXI against Wilshire PI that showed that dollar tops coincide with market bottoms.
So when the US market tanks it's usually a good idea to buy other economies stocks, while for the other countries it's cheaper to buy US stocks. Only as a rule of thumb, there's plently of currencies after all.
On April 01 2020 03:39 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 03:32 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On April 01 2020 03:17 KwarK wrote:On April 01 2020 02:12 Vivax wrote:On April 01 2020 01:38 KwarK wrote:On April 01 2020 00:49 Vivax wrote:On April 01 2020 00:17 FiWiFaKi wrote:On March 31 2020 10:58 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
I've got some people asking me about stocks/bonds/mutuals to look at for investing. Any advice I should be giving them than to wait a bit? Waiting a bit is probably the only advice you shouldn't give them. Time in market is the #1 thing for most investors. I'd tell them to go to the bank and open up an investing account, don't know where you live, here that'd be a TFSA firstly. If they are under 35 and have an average risk tolerance, they should go see an advisor and ask about different ETF's. Individual stocks are fine, but giving them advice on them is like telling them what they should have for lunch. For most people I'd tell them to go buy an S&P500 etf today. Especially if they live in the US. I'll never understand this obsession with ETFs that most have. Though I'm biased because I detest the bloody things from the get go, they get advertised so heavily and I don't trust them. Btw I checked out the performance of an inverse 2x ETF (DAX 2x inverse something something) against the crash of the depictured index. Basically DAX went below Jan 16 levels but the ETF didn't come close to surpassing it's Jan 16 levels. So you aren't even guaranteed that something gets tracked perfectly. Maybe also because fees somewhere. An ETF is generally just a basket of investments that you can buy and sell. It’s pretty weird to hate baskets. You can hate the contents of baskets and there are certainly many baskets filled with stuff that I wouldn’t touch but hating baskets is an unusual stance. Are you sure you haven’t gotten confused between ETFs as a concept and some specific ETFs filled with things you don’t like? When you buy an ETF, to my knowledge the issuer can lend the underlying assets you paid for, exposing himself to counterparty risk, as well as having a risk of his own. When you buy stocks, nobody can touch your shares, and the only counterparty is the company you bought. Also because of distortions. Biggies like FAANG are the main price drivers behind the ETFs they are included in, dragging along every other company they are listed with to those companies benefit, no matter how profitable those are. On the other hand if the biggies start seeing heavy selling for some reason, other smaller companies listed with them would likely get hit much harder in comparison. I prefer to look at it as a boat with several rowers. Some row super strong, some might barely row at all but had a few good years. With the total debt of all companies in the boat being holes in the ship the strong rowers have to outpace. I might be seeing it too darkly, but to each his own. I'm a fan of stockpicking with a bit of options on the side when I feel like gambling. ETFs are no more vulnerable to embezzlement by the party holding the asset than anything else. I think it’s specific ETFs you’re not a fan of. For example your point about large cap companies being overweight in the ETFs they’re in applies to cap weighted index funds but ignores the existence of inversely cap weighted index funds (larger holdings in smaller companies). ETFs are a basket that can hold damn near anything. I like to think of an ETF as lazy diversification. Lets say you want to invest in clean energy. A good investor would say that I should reduce my variance by investing in several companies. A clean energy ETF will do exactly that for you. Again, that’s a conflation of the basket and the contents. You could theoretically make an incredibly non diverse ETF. It’s just a basket. ETFs made up of stuff people commonly desire bundled together, such as a variety of clean energy companies, exist but my point, that Vivax saying he doesn’t like ETFs is as absurd as saying he doesn’t like baskets, is true because an ETF can contain all sorts of contrasting things.
Call me a derivative skeptic. Although I am guilty of trading in options, no other choice though when I'm betting on a crude recovery, or want to short the market.
Either way these thousands of baskets are not something I'm particularly fond of with the complexity they bring. The guys who mostly profit from them are (duh) the issuers.
|
On April 01 2020 03:46 CorsairHero wrote:
It's not even "lazy" to use an index ETF. It's not like through hard work you're going to build up a portfolio of 20000 globally publicly traded stocks in your portfolio and expect it to be cap weighted. Also for some, an index ETF is the only way to get access to markets they can't get to like emerging markets.
I mean lazy in the sense that I'm paying someone to do something that I could do myself. Can I do some research and buy several companies stocks and re-balance them myself? Yes. Do I want to? Nope.
On April 01 2020 03:39 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 03:32 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On April 01 2020 03:17 KwarK wrote:On April 01 2020 02:12 Vivax wrote:On April 01 2020 01:38 KwarK wrote:On April 01 2020 00:49 Vivax wrote:On April 01 2020 00:17 FiWiFaKi wrote:On March 31 2020 10:58 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
I've got some people asking me about stocks/bonds/mutuals to look at for investing. Any advice I should be giving them than to wait a bit? Waiting a bit is probably the only advice you shouldn't give them. Time in market is the #1 thing for most investors. I'd tell them to go to the bank and open up an investing account, don't know where you live, here that'd be a TFSA firstly. If they are under 35 and have an average risk tolerance, they should go see an advisor and ask about different ETF's. Individual stocks are fine, but giving them advice on them is like telling them what they should have for lunch. For most people I'd tell them to go buy an S&P500 etf today. Especially if they live in the US. I'll never understand this obsession with ETFs that most have. Though I'm biased because I detest the bloody things from the get go, they get advertised so heavily and I don't trust them. Btw I checked out the performance of an inverse 2x ETF (DAX 2x inverse something something) against the crash of the depictured index. Basically DAX went below Jan 16 levels but the ETF didn't come close to surpassing it's Jan 16 levels. So you aren't even guaranteed that something gets tracked perfectly. Maybe also because fees somewhere. An ETF is generally just a basket of investments that you can buy and sell. It’s pretty weird to hate baskets. You can hate the contents of baskets and there are certainly many baskets filled with stuff that I wouldn’t touch but hating baskets is an unusual stance. Are you sure you haven’t gotten confused between ETFs as a concept and some specific ETFs filled with things you don’t like? When you buy an ETF, to my knowledge the issuer can lend the underlying assets you paid for, exposing himself to counterparty risk, as well as having a risk of his own. When you buy stocks, nobody can touch your shares, and the only counterparty is the company you bought. Also because of distortions. Biggies like FAANG are the main price drivers behind the ETFs they are included in, dragging along every other company they are listed with to those companies benefit, no matter how profitable those are. On the other hand if the biggies start seeing heavy selling for some reason, other smaller companies listed with them would likely get hit much harder in comparison. I prefer to look at it as a boat with several rowers. Some row super strong, some might barely row at all but had a few good years. With the total debt of all companies in the boat being holes in the ship the strong rowers have to outpace. I might be seeing it too darkly, but to each his own. I'm a fan of stockpicking with a bit of options on the side when I feel like gambling. ETFs are no more vulnerable to embezzlement by the party holding the asset than anything else. I think it’s specific ETFs you’re not a fan of. For example your point about large cap companies being overweight in the ETFs they’re in applies to cap weighted index funds but ignores the existence of inversely cap weighted index funds (larger holdings in smaller companies). ETFs are a basket that can hold damn near anything. I like to think of an ETF as lazy diversification. Lets say you want to invest in clean energy. A good investor would say that I should reduce my variance by investing in several companies. A clean energy ETF will do exactly that for you. Again, that’s a conflation of the basket and the contents. You could theoretically make an incredibly non diverse ETF. It’s just a basket. ETFs made up of stuff people commonly desire bundled together, such as a variety of clean energy companies, exist but my point, that Vivax saying he doesn’t like ETFs is as absurd as saying he doesn’t like baskets, is true because an ETF can contain all sorts of contrasting things.
Kwark is correct. This is a narrow viewpoint of how I use them.
|
United States44283 Posts
On April 01 2020 04:00 Vivax wrote:For Americans it would probably be wise to pay attention to the dollars value against other currencies before deciding what to buy. Saw a chart about DXI against Wilshire PI that showed that dollar tops coincide with market bottoms. So when the US market tanks it's usually a good idea to buy other economies stocks, while for the other countries it's cheaper to buy US stocks. Only as a rule of thumb, there's plently of currencies after all. Show nested quote +On April 01 2020 03:39 KwarK wrote:On April 01 2020 03:32 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On April 01 2020 03:17 KwarK wrote:On April 01 2020 02:12 Vivax wrote:On April 01 2020 01:38 KwarK wrote:On April 01 2020 00:49 Vivax wrote:On April 01 2020 00:17 FiWiFaKi wrote:On March 31 2020 10:58 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
I've got some people asking me about stocks/bonds/mutuals to look at for investing. Any advice I should be giving them than to wait a bit? Waiting a bit is probably the only advice you shouldn't give them. Time in market is the #1 thing for most investors. I'd tell them to go to the bank and open up an investing account, don't know where you live, here that'd be a TFSA firstly. If they are under 35 and have an average risk tolerance, they should go see an advisor and ask about different ETF's. Individual stocks are fine, but giving them advice on them is like telling them what they should have for lunch. For most people I'd tell them to go buy an S&P500 etf today. Especially if they live in the US. I'll never understand this obsession with ETFs that most have. Though I'm biased because I detest the bloody things from the get go, they get advertised so heavily and I don't trust them. Btw I checked out the performance of an inverse 2x ETF (DAX 2x inverse something something) against the crash of the depictured index. Basically DAX went below Jan 16 levels but the ETF didn't come close to surpassing it's Jan 16 levels. So you aren't even guaranteed that something gets tracked perfectly. Maybe also because fees somewhere. An ETF is generally just a basket of investments that you can buy and sell. It’s pretty weird to hate baskets. You can hate the contents of baskets and there are certainly many baskets filled with stuff that I wouldn’t touch but hating baskets is an unusual stance. Are you sure you haven’t gotten confused between ETFs as a concept and some specific ETFs filled with things you don’t like? When you buy an ETF, to my knowledge the issuer can lend the underlying assets you paid for, exposing himself to counterparty risk, as well as having a risk of his own. When you buy stocks, nobody can touch your shares, and the only counterparty is the company you bought. Also because of distortions. Biggies like FAANG are the main price drivers behind the ETFs they are included in, dragging along every other company they are listed with to those companies benefit, no matter how profitable those are. On the other hand if the biggies start seeing heavy selling for some reason, other smaller companies listed with them would likely get hit much harder in comparison. I prefer to look at it as a boat with several rowers. Some row super strong, some might barely row at all but had a few good years. With the total debt of all companies in the boat being holes in the ship the strong rowers have to outpace. I might be seeing it too darkly, but to each his own. I'm a fan of stockpicking with a bit of options on the side when I feel like gambling. ETFs are no more vulnerable to embezzlement by the party holding the asset than anything else. I think it’s specific ETFs you’re not a fan of. For example your point about large cap companies being overweight in the ETFs they’re in applies to cap weighted index funds but ignores the existence of inversely cap weighted index funds (larger holdings in smaller companies). ETFs are a basket that can hold damn near anything. I like to think of an ETF as lazy diversification. Lets say you want to invest in clean energy. A good investor would say that I should reduce my variance by investing in several companies. A clean energy ETF will do exactly that for you. Again, that’s a conflation of the basket and the contents. You could theoretically make an incredibly non diverse ETF. It’s just a basket. ETFs made up of stuff people commonly desire bundled together, such as a variety of clean energy companies, exist but my point, that Vivax saying he doesn’t like ETFs is as absurd as saying he doesn’t like baskets, is true because an ETF can contain all sorts of contrasting things. Call me a derivative skeptic. Although I am guilty of trading in options, no other choice though when I'm betting on a crude recovery, or want to short the market. Either way these thousands of baskets are not something I'm particularly fond of with the complexity they bring. The guys who mostly profit from them are (duh) the issuers.
If a basket of things is too complex for you then I’m not entirely sure you can be helped. And no, the people who profit from the basket depends entirely on the basket, as I keep saying. For example a low cost index fund returns the vast, vast majority of growth of the stocks it contains to the investors, not the issuer. The investors will typically get over 99% of all gains (assuming 10% nominal returns and a 10 basis point fee). You keep saying you don’t like baskets and then describing specific baskets you don’t like for reasons that have nothing to do with the concept of a basket.
Take something like the IAU ETF. It’s literally just a shitton of gold in a vault. Each share corresponds to roughly 1/100th of an ounce of gold. If the share price gets too high (relative to the underlying gold) they issue more shares, sell them, and buy gold. If it gets too low they sell some gold and buy their shares back to get it back to 1/100th of an ounce.
It could not be simpler. You own 100 shares of it, you own an ounce of gold. It’s a basket of gold. If that gold goes up then the shares go up. They take a 40 basis point fee for doing the paperwork and making sure nobody steals the gold but it allows an individual to speculate on the gold and trade it with others instantly and easily.
|
Talking of gold three of the largest gold refineries in the world are now closed due to Swiss government closure of non essential business.Gold is becoming increasingly hard to obtain in physical.
Perth (where I am) Mint is sold out of silver and gold bars (cast and minted) and only has 1oz or 1/10oz kangaroos and 1 Oz kook Silver's.No other coins.Huge premiums on US Mint stuff if you can get it from what I've heard.
|
Hello, friends. Would anyone have recommendations for resources for options? I know the subject came up in the first page, but I haven't seen much discussion since.
|
I learned a lot from the book "Options as a Strategic Investment" by Lawrence G. McMillan. Not sure if you could find it free online, but it has a ton of good information in it.
|
On April 08 2020 17:29 No0n wrote:
I learned a lot from the book "Options as a Strategic Investment" by Lawrence G. McMillan. Not sure if you could find it free online, but it has a ton of good information in it.
Thanks for the suggestion!
|
Congratz to IPlayNettles I think? If you held onto miners you should be seeing a nice profit now.
Best trade I had lately was buying Rosneft GDR one day before they pulled out of Venezuela. Oil options got hammered but my biggest position on oil expires in August and I think the price is going for a double bottom. Should have gotten Brent and not WTI though. The East seems to be dedollarizing.
I estimate we're at 'return to normality now in the bubble chart. Also the suspended estimates catch my eye here.
I think a bullion bank crisis looms on the horizon, I don't see swap dealers covering while gold rises.
+ Show Spoiler +
Huge (fake news)
+ Show Spoiler +https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1250425121853960198
|
Do unknown random people who type with capital letters have more credibility than those who don't?
|
On April 16 2020 04:36 CorsairHero wrote:
Do unknown random people who type with capital letters have more credibility than those who don't?
No, they just emulate being a feed with it.
If you want to get your news from magazines, that's good too. Barron's and the economist had the best covers these years. If you did the opposite of what they suggested, you'd be rich.
The above about the debt cancellation turned out to be fake news:
+ Show Spoiler +
|
Stock-watching over the past month and a half has been very... 
At this point it'd take some very aggressive denial to say the economy isn't going to go downhill pretty hard after this lockdown situation is over. Stocks are still reflecting a highly optimistic view, though, which means some very interesting flux in prices. The one that is most interesting to me is airline stocks - seems like almost every morning, they're up in price a double-digit percentage. Whether or not they end the day with the same value is always an open question.
|
United States44283 Posts
If not in stocks where should the ultra rich have their money right now? Stocks reflect a store of value as well as a stream of cash flows. Treasuries are paying extremely low rates, selling investments now only makes sense if you plan to buy back in lower and there's no indication that there will necessarily be a lower because the market valuations are decoupled from economic conditions.
|
On April 17 2020 01:13 LegalLord wrote:Stock-watching over the past month and a half has been very... At this point it'd take some very aggressive denial to say the economy isn't going to go downhill pretty hard after this lockdown situation is over. Stocks are still reflecting a highly optimistic view, though, which means some very interesting flux in prices. The one that is most interesting to me is airline stocks - seems like almost every morning, they're up in price a double-digit percentage. Whether or not they end the day with the same value is always an open question.
A lot of these companies are still using stimulus to buy back stocks, and I also think that they're inflating on purpose to get first time stock investors to buy in, and then immediately sell once it reaches day time high so it goes back down, only to repeat the process again until they can't anymore.
|
On April 17 2020 01:36 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2020 01:13 LegalLord wrote:Stock-watching over the past month and a half has been very... At this point it'd take some very aggressive denial to say the economy isn't going to go downhill pretty hard after this lockdown situation is over. Stocks are still reflecting a highly optimistic view, though, which means some very interesting flux in prices. The one that is most interesting to me is airline stocks - seems like almost every morning, they're up in price a double-digit percentage. Whether or not they end the day with the same value is always an open question. A lot of these companies are still using stimulus to buy back stocks, and I also think that they're inflating on purpose to get first time stock investors to buy in, and then immediately sell once it reaches day time high so it goes back down, only to repeat the process again until they can't anymore.
That was my impression as well. Have to imagine there's some money managers involved like 08 too imo.
|
On April 17 2020 01:40 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2020 01:36 ShoCkeyy wrote:On April 17 2020 01:13 LegalLord wrote:Stock-watching over the past month and a half has been very... At this point it'd take some very aggressive denial to say the economy isn't going to go downhill pretty hard after this lockdown situation is over. Stocks are still reflecting a highly optimistic view, though, which means some very interesting flux in prices. The one that is most interesting to me is airline stocks - seems like almost every morning, they're up in price a double-digit percentage. Whether or not they end the day with the same value is always an open question. A lot of these companies are still using stimulus to buy back stocks, and I also think that they're inflating on purpose to get first time stock investors to buy in, and then immediately sell once it reaches day time high so it goes back down, only to repeat the process again until they can't anymore. That was my impression as well. Have to imagine there's some money managers involved like 08 too imo.
It's the first place people are looking at with their stimulus checks who can afford to gamble as Vivax said earlier in the thread. I've also been watching the market and it's crazy, everyday has been very similar, it goes up during the day, right before after hours hit, it goes right back down.
|
On April 17 2020 01:13 LegalLord wrote:Stock-watching over the past month and a half has been very... At this point it'd take some very aggressive denial to say the economy isn't going to go downhill pretty hard after this lockdown situation is over. Stocks are still reflecting a highly optimistic view, though, which means some very interesting flux in prices. The one that is most interesting to me is airline stocks - seems like almost every morning, they're up in price a double-digit percentage. Whether or not they end the day with the same value is always an open question.
I'm curious to get the thread's opinion on this, but IMO, stocks are overvalued over the <5 year time horizon, but still probably undervalued over a longer period (>10 years). I agree with you that the overall economy is gonna be in some pain for a while, and my impression is that the market is being propped up through govt. fiscal / monetary policy.
Nevertheless, my thinking is that if I'm doing some long-term buy-and-hold (e.g., retirement), it's still a decent time to get in. Is this a reasonable take to make?
|
On April 17 2020 01:50 Bagration wrote:Show nested quote +On April 17 2020 01:13 LegalLord wrote:Stock-watching over the past month and a half has been very... At this point it'd take some very aggressive denial to say the economy isn't going to go downhill pretty hard after this lockdown situation is over. Stocks are still reflecting a highly optimistic view, though, which means some very interesting flux in prices. The one that is most interesting to me is airline stocks - seems like almost every morning, they're up in price a double-digit percentage. Whether or not they end the day with the same value is always an open question. I'm curious to get the thread's opinion on this, but IMO, stocks are overvalued over the <5 year time horizon, but still probably undervalued over a longer period (>10 years). I agree with you that the overall economy is gonna be in some pain for a while, and my impression is that the market is being propped up through govt. fiscal / monetary policy. Nevertheless, my thinking is that if I'm doing some long-term buy-and-hold (e.g., retirement), it's still a decent time to get in. Is this a reasonable take to make?
Does anyone think the government will allow the economy to collapse? If we hit another rut there will be another stimulus to save all these companies. The market is being propped up by the fed/treasury, but that is priced in at this point and will continue.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVfyWp_WoAUUNIJ?format=png&name=900x900)
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVraJo6WkAQf4eV?format=jpg&name=large)
