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https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1183408.shtml
As one of the biggest creditors of US debt, China needs to be vigilant about the impact of the US money-printing, with proper precautions made to its foreign exchange reserve structure.
Did the Chinese exchange a shitton of dollars for Norwegian Crowns as one of these precautions?
My option writers for a usdnok short trade are just crappy banks, sadly. Might throw 50 bucks at it at most.
Sadly it's probably the trade of the century.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/XuAHFAZ.png)
Caracas stock exchange:
![[image loading]](https://frontera.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/IBVC-index-1.png)
Feels like today (3/23) I'm looking at Brent and WTI arbitrage. Their prices are finally coming together.
New flash crash in USDNOK too.
Not even going to get started about what's going on in the physical metal market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-short-2-explodes-citi-deutsche-bank-stuck-billions-unsellable-cmbs-debt
A JV of MGM Growth Properties and Blackstone REIT used $3 billion of financing to purchase the casinos last month, and Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays Plc and Societe Generale had planned to syndicate $1.9 billion of the total as commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, according to Bloomberg. However, as gambling along with any other activity that involves social interactions has ground to a halt and it is unclear just when it will restart, the efforts to sell the CMBS were met with "tepid demand" and the sale was put on hold, leaving the banks stuck holding on to the billions in debt, although it was not clear now much of the loan each bank holds.
Whoops. Bad debt inc.
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DAX today:
+ Show Spoiler +
Limit up in a lot of places.
They are dividend heavy in the index but I don't know how many will pay it out after this Q. Newmont paid one yesterday though.
For those who want cheaper housing I might have good news too, here's a commercial real estate fund getting clobbered.
+ Show Spoiler +
After someone from congress suggested to mint 2 trillion dollar platinum coins, now comes the fedcoin suggestion.
Almost brilliant. Make a shitty suggestion first, everyone gets worked up and labels you incompetent. Then make another suggestion of a cryptocurrency that comes with free money for the small price of privacy and fiscal independence, and it won't be seen as shitty while the previous even shittier suggestion lingers in the mind.
https://www.coindesk.com/house-stimulus-bills-envision-digital-dollar-to-ease-coronavirus-recession
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On March 22 2020 11:52 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2020 07:26 KwarK wrote:On March 19 2020 07:23 KwarK wrote:On March 19 2020 06:54 IyMoon wrote:On March 19 2020 06:28 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:25 IyMoon wrote:On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself. Why not if you don't mind me asking? 4 months ago this ETF was at 40. If I just toss 3k in and wait 2 years on it could either be worth an amazing amount or be maybe.... half? High risk AMAZING reward? Apart from news of liquidation already appearing on stocktwits, so it won't even exist soon any more probably, are you 100% sure that the issuer, Citigroup, is going to get through this unscathed? I don't think Citigroup is going anywhere. You think theres a chance they just shut the ETN down based of the oil wars going on and companies going under? Edit: Kwark said its a strong buy and I respect him from the POL thread so 3k money on fire it is I didn't mean that specific ETF, there are other ETFs out there you can buy too like OILU. UWT may cease to trade soon (though assets would be returned through liquidation, wouldn't be a total loss). I meant that strong in that it's very reasonable to expect oil to go back up in the future and that a leveraged ETF would be a way to take advantage of that. OILU up 56% today lol. OILU closing (with share owners getting refunded their share of net assets which should roughly correlate to the share value because it's a commodity index) https://www.proshares.com/news/proshares_announces_changes_to_etf_lineup_031220.html
Hi, not a trader, sometimes lurk this thread, newb question: What does OILU closing mean?
So ProShares, a company that offers ETFs and has 29$billions in assets, no longer has oil as part of their ProShares Trust II product? The company excludes the OILU/OILD tickers, which are found on the NYSE Arca, which is not the same as the NYSE if I read that correctly on Wikipedia? So the company might still trade in oil as part of their ETFs just no longer oil on the NYSE Arca? A commodity can be traded on multiple exchanges, correct?
I guess, what I am wondering is, what is the significance of that? Oil is still traded on the NYSE Arca. Just Proshares won't trade there anymore. Is proshares that huge of a deal? Is the NYSE Arca the most important exchange for oil? In the US? In America? In the world?
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On March 24 2020 20:32 Vivax wrote:DAX today: + Show Spoiler +Limit up in a lot of places. They are dividend heavy in the index but I don't know how many will pay it out after this Q. Newmont paid one yesterday though. For those who want cheaper housing I might have good news too, here's a commercial real estate fund getting clobbered. + Show Spoiler +After someone from congress suggested to mint 2 trillion dollar platinum coins, now comes the fedcoin suggestion. Almost brilliant. Make a shitty suggestion first, everyone gets worked up and labels you incompetent. Then make another suggestion of a cryptocurrency that comes with free money for the small price of privacy and fiscal independence, and it won't be seen as shitty while the previous even shittier suggestion lingers in the mind. https://www.coindesk.com/house-stimulus-bills-envision-digital-dollar-to-ease-coronavirus-recession
There are a lot of conspiracy theorists who said that was coming... They said that the virus would be used to collapse the economy (which would eventually happen anyways), and then there would be a push to a new global digital currency for reconciliation of the collapse of the dollar.
This is FUCKED UP. God I hope that doesn't pass. It's so clever, too. It will have support from all the people because hey, free money.
How could this program even be implemented in any reasonable time frame? My guess is because they already have it ready...
UPDATE (March 24, 14:20 UTC): A new version of the "Take Responsibility for Workers and Families Act," shared late Monday, does not include the "digital dollar" section.
Thank god.
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United States42964 Posts
On March 24 2020 23:28 naughtDE wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2020 11:52 KwarK wrote:On March 20 2020 07:26 KwarK wrote:On March 19 2020 07:23 KwarK wrote:On March 19 2020 06:54 IyMoon wrote:On March 19 2020 06:28 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:25 IyMoon wrote:On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself. Why not if you don't mind me asking? 4 months ago this ETF was at 40. If I just toss 3k in and wait 2 years on it could either be worth an amazing amount or be maybe.... half? High risk AMAZING reward? Apart from news of liquidation already appearing on stocktwits, so it won't even exist soon any more probably, are you 100% sure that the issuer, Citigroup, is going to get through this unscathed? I don't think Citigroup is going anywhere. You think theres a chance they just shut the ETN down based of the oil wars going on and companies going under? Edit: Kwark said its a strong buy and I respect him from the POL thread so 3k money on fire it is I didn't mean that specific ETF, there are other ETFs out there you can buy too like OILU. UWT may cease to trade soon (though assets would be returned through liquidation, wouldn't be a total loss). I meant that strong in that it's very reasonable to expect oil to go back up in the future and that a leveraged ETF would be a way to take advantage of that. OILU up 56% today lol. OILU closing (with share owners getting refunded their share of net assets which should roughly correlate to the share value because it's a commodity index) https://www.proshares.com/news/proshares_announces_changes_to_etf_lineup_031220.html Hi, not a trader, sometimes lurk this thread, newb question: What does OILU closing mean? So ProShares, a company that offers ETFs and has 29$billions in assets, no longer has oil as part of their ProShares Trust II product? The company excludes the OILU/OILD tickers, which are found on the NYSE Arca, which is not the same as the NYSE if I read that correctly on Wikipedia? So the company might still trade in oil as part of their ETFs just no longer oil on the NYSE Arca? A commodity can be traded on multiple exchanges, correct? I guess, what I am wondering is, what is the significance of that? Oil is still traded on the NYSE Arca. Just Proshares won't trade there anymore. Is proshares that huge of a deal? Is the NYSE Arca the most important exchange for oil? In the US? In America? In the world?
The fund closing doesn't mean much, just that this one ETF is getting shut down as not worth running anymore. Proshares has a lot of ETFs, they're closing down this one 3x leveraged oil one, they still have a lot of others including other oil ones.
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On March 25 2020 00:38 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2020 23:28 naughtDE wrote:On March 22 2020 11:52 KwarK wrote:On March 20 2020 07:26 KwarK wrote:On March 19 2020 07:23 KwarK wrote:On March 19 2020 06:54 IyMoon wrote:On March 19 2020 06:28 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:25 IyMoon wrote:On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself. Why not if you don't mind me asking? 4 months ago this ETF was at 40. If I just toss 3k in and wait 2 years on it could either be worth an amazing amount or be maybe.... half? High risk AMAZING reward? Apart from news of liquidation already appearing on stocktwits, so it won't even exist soon any more probably, are you 100% sure that the issuer, Citigroup, is going to get through this unscathed? I don't think Citigroup is going anywhere. You think theres a chance they just shut the ETN down based of the oil wars going on and companies going under? Edit: Kwark said its a strong buy and I respect him from the POL thread so 3k money on fire it is I didn't mean that specific ETF, there are other ETFs out there you can buy too like OILU. UWT may cease to trade soon (though assets would be returned through liquidation, wouldn't be a total loss). I meant that strong in that it's very reasonable to expect oil to go back up in the future and that a leveraged ETF would be a way to take advantage of that. OILU up 56% today lol. OILU closing (with share owners getting refunded their share of net assets which should roughly correlate to the share value because it's a commodity index) https://www.proshares.com/news/proshares_announces_changes_to_etf_lineup_031220.html Hi, not a trader, sometimes lurk this thread, newb question: What does OILU closing mean? So ProShares, a company that offers ETFs and has 29$billions in assets, no longer has oil as part of their ProShares Trust II product? The company excludes the OILU/OILD tickers, which are found on the NYSE Arca, which is not the same as the NYSE if I read that correctly on Wikipedia? So the company might still trade in oil as part of their ETFs just no longer oil on the NYSE Arca? A commodity can be traded on multiple exchanges, correct? I guess, what I am wondering is, what is the significance of that? Oil is still traded on the NYSE Arca. Just Proshares won't trade there anymore. Is proshares that huge of a deal? Is the NYSE Arca the most important exchange for oil? In the US? In America? In the world? The fund closing doesn't mean much, just that this one ETF is getting shut down as not worth running anymore. Proshares has a lot of ETFs, they're closing down this one 3x leveraged oil one, they still have a lot of others including other oil ones.
Thank you, that makes sense to me! 
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On March 25 2020 00:12 travis wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2020 20:32 Vivax wrote:DAX today: + Show Spoiler +Limit up in a lot of places. They are dividend heavy in the index but I don't know how many will pay it out after this Q. Newmont paid one yesterday though. For those who want cheaper housing I might have good news too, here's a commercial real estate fund getting clobbered. + Show Spoiler +After someone from congress suggested to mint 2 trillion dollar platinum coins, now comes the fedcoin suggestion. Almost brilliant. Make a shitty suggestion first, everyone gets worked up and labels you incompetent. Then make another suggestion of a cryptocurrency that comes with free money for the small price of privacy and fiscal independence, and it won't be seen as shitty while the previous even shittier suggestion lingers in the mind. https://www.coindesk.com/house-stimulus-bills-envision-digital-dollar-to-ease-coronavirus-recession There are a lot of conspiracy theorists who said that was coming... They said that the virus would be used to collapse the economy (which would eventually happen anyways), and then there would be a push to a new global digital currency for reconciliation of the collapse of the dollar. This is FUCKED UP. God I hope that doesn't pass. It's so clever, too. It will have support from all the people because hey, free money. How could this program even be implemented in any reasonable time frame? My guess is because they already have it ready... Show nested quote +
UPDATE (March 24, 14:20 UTC): A new version of the "Take Responsibility for Workers and Families Act," shared late Monday, does not include the "digital dollar" section.
Thank god.
When faced with an authority that doesn't disclose their hand, all that's left to guess their next move could be labeled conspiracy theories. Although there's a lot of absurdities out there like infowars and several ZH articles.
Good to know they aren't making that move yet, but we know it's somewhere in a drawer now.
On March 25 2020 01:01 simandos wrote:
Do you know thar Forex are cheaters? It seems to me that even children already know this.
In daytrading it's not unlikely. But if you guess the move of a currency in the mid- to long-term, no broker or bank is going to be able to stop it just to get your money. Read a bit about Soros play against the pound yesterday. He took advantage of low interest rates and high inflation while it was overvalued, the similarities to the (euro+jpy-)dollar are there.
These tenders the Fed handed out to some fellow central banks might ensure that our currencies strengthen together while inflation rises, a sort of financial pact of non aggression.
Flash crashes in USDNOK keep appearing >_>
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market doing so many weird things. at least my GLD calls finally paid off (though I am still holding onto a couple for later).
I am mostly just ignoring the market. so it's going up, great, don't care - pandemic isn't over. holding my puts, inevitable downturn is coming.
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United States24701 Posts
I think it's just going up based on speculation about the next stimulus/aid deal... gravity will win out, for now.
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To put things into perspective, so maybe it's easier to understand what it means when I'm writing about monster tides with this amount of liquidity sloshing around in the system. Numbers are roughly read from the charts:
In 3 days, the Dow has risen 4k points.
From 11/7/2016, my personal reference point for when this bubble started, courtesy of DJT, it took about one and a half years to go up 6k points.
From 12/26/2018, about the time the Fed stepped back from quantitative tightening at Dow 22k, it took something under a year to rise 6k points.
Now it took three days for 4k.Let that sink in.
If I knew any short sellers (not through options, at least those losses are limited by the amount you put in), I'd actually be warning them of being in grave danger right now (especially with the potential for unlimited losses). Because the bubble imo isn't in the stock market, it's in the eurodollar (that includes the JPY).
This market crash is a massive bear trap. Act on your own research, but this is my opinion. When looking at history we see plenty of crashes and how they played out, but that's always within the scope of a lifetime of a currency.
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![[image loading]](https://i.redd.it/jl0mlnlnk0p41.jpg)
nothing rallies the market like insane unemployment
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On March 26 2020 22:17 travis wrote:nothing rallies the market like insane unemployment
Imagine having a money spigot and no people to pay.
This market has been detached from fundamentals for a long time anyway. It revolves around one question: Is there a shortage of dollars or not.
Went long rubel and swiss frank.
The reasoning here would go something like this, but I should linger on it for some more:
The currencies of indebted nations strengthen when the interest payments stop like during this lockdown, because the demand for them increases with the amount of debt, forcing them to print even more to cover previous debts, while debt-free nations have very weak currencies that become stronger as the indebted nations print more. Noting here that strong and weak don't equival to good and bad.
While debt-free nations have a higher cost on imports, they have a choice about the course of their currency, indebted nations do not.
YESSS, say no to more debt. I was afraid we wouldn't have the guts.
By the logic above, one should expect the € to go higher next, since the trouble in paying €-denominated debt is going to persist.
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On March 26 2020 22:17 travis wrote:nothing rallies the market like insane unemployment
If the market already priced in even worse expectations, then it could be good news. Considering the huge drop we’ve had before this, mass unemployment is already priced in.
Stimulus bill passing is probably overriding that on the short term before people realize how bad this recession will really be.
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The idea that the market has already priced in unemployment is bonkers, work off of that notion at your own risk lol.
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Feels like the market is taking a massive bet that the US will be getting back to work soon or am I misreading this? The rally doesn’t entirely make sense to me as it feels like the worst could still be coming.
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Well the rally is filled with free money loaned from the fed and stock buybacks I am sure.
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There's a lot of difficult to qualify/quantify stuff at play right now, more than ever before maybe, but there is good reason to think that the market success of the past few days is closely related to the forced optimism of commercial real estate entities that have made their play and *need* it to succeed. These bumps could very well be regarded as "well, the hit to April's rents will be buffeted by the relief bill, let's not think about May" sentiments dominating momentum trading to the benefit of market numbers.
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Haha yeah did you check out the gains of all those REITs?
I'm sure they are just trying to balance more debt on top of their mountain of debt, but hey at least there's no interest on this latest debt.
If market hasn't come crashing back down next week I'll probably start laying down some epic puts on the ones that have taken on huge risk.
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A lot of the increase is merely due to the "certainty" (or rather, the reduction in uncertainty) from the actual jobless claims numbers coming out and the relief bill making it through the Senate. A lot of money was sitting on the sidelines until those things happened, and then they placed their bets. Nothing has fundamentally changed, just look at the coronavirus case/ deaths in the US.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i0.wp.com/inchcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/venezuelan-bolivar-vs.-USD.png?resize=600%2C400&ssl=1)
![[image loading]](https://media.giphy.com/media/b6iVj3IM54Abm/200.gif)
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ET1Nq7cU8AEqlW8?format=jpg&name=medium)
