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On March 18 2020 10:56 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 09:43 Vivax wrote:On March 18 2020 08:41 FiWiFaKi wrote:On March 17 2020 03:14 Vivax wrote:On March 16 2020 22:35 GoTuNk! wrote:
sp gonna dip below 2k ? F for the stock market Bold prediction: We'll see what happens when 3x inverse ETFs blow up sometime in the future. Just 2 to 3 more weeks like this til Dow hits 0. I wouldn't worry too much, right now we have a very aggressive reaction. At any point that we decide that we've had enough of living like sheep, we can return to normal with little damage to the economy (say 2% of world population death, assuming a roughly 4% death rate with minimal health care and with 50% infection rate). But that 4% is under 1% for people under 65. Worst case scenario for the economy is we stay holed up in our homes for 2 years waiting for a vaccine, market drops 50-60%, and then it being difficult to get everything back up and running resulting in a slow recovery, but we're trying to be humane so alas. Still keeping a lot of my capital in reserve, trying to lock in a good rate against equities to take a hopefully 1.5mil loan when the panic reaches its maximum. If for the last month I alternated buying and selling everyday with the market every day, I wouldn't have to work another day in life lol, I'm sure some investors managed to make crazy money with this market. Nope, worst case scenario is a credit freeze. Which is why I'm not going to wait for a bottom forever when it could happen that at some point I can't use the stored cash, only to watch my currency crash shortly thereafter. I'd sleep more soundly if I had USD in my account. I wouldn't have the nerve to daytrade this market on margin, it's explosive in both directions and full of limit hits that stop you from adjusting positions. So you are implying my currency will turn into paper money? (like all other foreign ones?)
Meh. It‘s legal tender. But king dollar demands tribute in purchasing power from other countries.
Fed now accepts stocks as collateral btw. Seems the counterparty has run out of treasuries and mbs. They‘ll buy everything now.
Sometimes I wonder if Powell is the pres
Bold prediction nr. 2: Expect oil prices in the triple digits.
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On March 18 2020 11:31 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2020 10:56 GoTuNk! wrote:On March 18 2020 09:43 Vivax wrote:On March 18 2020 08:41 FiWiFaKi wrote:On March 17 2020 03:14 Vivax wrote:On March 16 2020 22:35 GoTuNk! wrote:
sp gonna dip below 2k ? F for the stock market Bold prediction: We'll see what happens when 3x inverse ETFs blow up sometime in the future. Just 2 to 3 more weeks like this til Dow hits 0. I wouldn't worry too much, right now we have a very aggressive reaction. At any point that we decide that we've had enough of living like sheep, we can return to normal with little damage to the economy (say 2% of world population death, assuming a roughly 4% death rate with minimal health care and with 50% infection rate). But that 4% is under 1% for people under 65. Worst case scenario for the economy is we stay holed up in our homes for 2 years waiting for a vaccine, market drops 50-60%, and then it being difficult to get everything back up and running resulting in a slow recovery, but we're trying to be humane so alas. Still keeping a lot of my capital in reserve, trying to lock in a good rate against equities to take a hopefully 1.5mil loan when the panic reaches its maximum. If for the last month I alternated buying and selling everyday with the market every day, I wouldn't have to work another day in life lol, I'm sure some investors managed to make crazy money with this market. Nope, worst case scenario is a credit freeze. Which is why I'm not going to wait for a bottom forever when it could happen that at some point I can't use the stored cash, only to watch my currency crash shortly thereafter. I'd sleep more soundly if I had USD in my account. I wouldn't have the nerve to daytrade this market on margin, it's explosive in both directions and full of limit hits that stop you from adjusting positions. So you are implying my currency will turn into paper money? (like all other foreign ones?) Meh. It‘s legal tender. But king dollar demands tribute in purchasing power from other countries. Fed now accepts stocks as collateral btw. Seems the counterparty has run out of treasuries and mbs. They‘ll buy everything now. Sometimes I wonder if Powell is the pres Bold prediction nr. 2: Expect oil prices in the triple digits.
My currency lost another 3,55% of its value vs the USD JUST today adding to a total of 20-25% since the leftist revolt in october.
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I have no trading experience and this is certainly not advice but I think the Dow dips under 10k before it finds a floor.
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On March 19 2020 03:23 GreenHorizons wrote:
I have no trading experience and this is certainly not advice but I think the Dow dips under 10k before it finds a floor.
If that happens I hope you have a tank in your front yard.
The inverse correlation between dollar and gold that was broken October last year is back btw.
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On March 19 2020 03:25 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 03:23 GreenHorizons wrote:
I have no trading experience and this is certainly not advice but I think the Dow dips under 10k before it finds a floor. If that happens I hope you have a tank in your front yard.
closer to 10k than it is 30k so I guess it's tank time
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I think the last 2 months have turned me into an elite, professional trader.
I expect i will continue to be so until the world economies stabilize and then I expect to lose everything I have earned.
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On March 19 2020 04:38 travis wrote:
I think the last 2 months have turned me into an elite, professional trader.
I expect i will continue to be so until the world economies stabilize and then I expect to lose everything I have earned.
It's a bit like starcraft, micro can give you a short term advantage, but focus on the macro. xD
This only stops when the US decides to chop the dollars head off, maybe they can do that by pegging the currency to something finite. Or they get debt off the books by letting a few banks default like in 2k8.
They aren't showing their cards yet, so we don't know when or what. I want to be in defensive stocks and physical commodities when they do that.
Glad to hear you've been doing well in the bear market though.
+ Show Spoiler +
I also like the thought experiment where there's a shortseller with infinite money. He completely thrashes everything to zero and is super rich. What can he buy with his profits then? He's the only guy with infinite amounts of a paper product.
I like to think that the short seller is the $
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UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever
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On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever
I wouldn't do that. All those 3X-something-ETFs seem sketchy to me. But use your own judgement.
Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself.
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On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself.
Why not if you don't mind me asking? 4 months ago this ETN was at 40. If I just toss 3k in and wait 2 years on it could either be worth an amazing amount or be maybe.... half? High risk AMAZING reward?
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On March 19 2020 06:25 IyMoon wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself. Why not if you don't mind me asking? 4 months ago this ETF was at 40. If I just toss 3k in and wait 2 years on it could either be worth an amazing amount or be maybe.... half? High risk AMAZING reward?
Apart from news of liquidation already appearing on stocktwits, so it won't even exist soon any more probably, are you 100% sure that the issuer, Citigroup, is going to get through this unscathed?
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United States44015 Posts
On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. All those 3X-something-ETFs seem sketchy to me. But use your own judgement. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself.
lol
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On March 19 2020 06:30 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. All those 3X-something-ETFs seem sketchy to me. But use your own judgement. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself. lol
At least if I incinerate my money it'll be in style
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United States44015 Posts
On March 19 2020 06:36 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 06:30 KwarK wrote:On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. All those 3X-something-ETFs seem sketchy to me. But use your own judgement. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself. lol At least if I incinerate my money it'll be in style
A leveraged ETF isn't the worst idea if you view the current market as irregular (it is, SA is doing a short term nuclear option to force Russia to work with OPEC+). It's absolutely nothing like holding the commodity directly because it triple compounds gains/losses.
Oil goes up 10%, ETF goes up 30%. Next day you have 130% of your starting investment. Oil goes up 10% again, ETF goes up 30%, now you have 169% of your original investment, and so forth.
The math isn't quite as simple as that but you get the idea. It doesn't go to $0, it approaches $0, because of the way they trade. Therefore it's not unreasonable to suppose that as long as there is an eventual return to OPEC+ coordination this will be a strong buy.
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On March 19 2020 06:43 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 06:36 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:30 KwarK wrote:On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. All those 3X-something-ETFs seem sketchy to me. But use your own judgement. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself. lol At least if I incinerate my money it'll be in style A leveraged ETF isn't the worst idea if you view the current market as irregular (it is, SA is doing a short term nuclear option to force Russia to work with OPEC+). It's absolutely nothing like holding the commodity directly because it triple compounds gains/losses. Oil goes up 10%, ETF goes up 30%. Next day you have 130% of your starting investment. Oil goes up 10% again, ETF goes up 30%, now you have 169% of your original investment, and so forth. The math isn't quite as simple as that but you get the idea. It doesn't go to $0, it approaches $0, because of the way they trade. Therefore it's not unreasonable to suppose that as long as there is an eventual return to OPEC+ coordination this will be a strong buy.
I am betting on rising oil prices myself, but I do that with options issued by a Swiss bank. I expect triple digit oil prices actually.
The issuers of triple leveraged ETFs are imo the equivalent of a gun seller sitting on a powder keg.
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On March 19 2020 06:28 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 06:25 IyMoon wrote:On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself. Why not if you don't mind me asking? 4 months ago this ETF was at 40. If I just toss 3k in and wait 2 years on it could either be worth an amazing amount or be maybe.... half? High risk AMAZING reward? Apart from news of liquidation already appearing on stocktwits, so it won't even exist soon any more probably, are you 100% sure that the issuer, Citigroup, is going to get through this unscathed?
I don't think Citigroup is going anywhere. You think theres a chance they just shut the ETN down based of the oil wars going on and companies going under?
Edit: Kwark said its a strong buy and I respect him from the POL thread so 3k money on fire it is
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On March 19 2020 06:54 IyMoon wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 06:28 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:25 IyMoon wrote:On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself. Why not if you don't mind me asking? 4 months ago this ETF was at 40. If I just toss 3k in and wait 2 years on it could either be worth an amazing amount or be maybe.... half? High risk AMAZING reward? Apart from news of liquidation already appearing on stocktwits, so it won't even exist soon any more probably, are you 100% sure that the issuer, Citigroup, is going to get through this unscathed? I don't think Citigroup is going anywhere. You think theres a chance they just shut the ETN down based of the oil wars going on and companies going under? Edit: Kwark said its a strong buy and I respect him from the POL thread so 3k money on fire it is
Good luck. Excuse me for another joker but it fits so well.
+ Show Spoiler +
I'm trying to figure out who Boeings creditors are, but it's probably a well guarderd secret. As they say, when you owe the bank 1k, it's your problem. When you owe them 1 billion, it's the banks problem.
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United States44015 Posts
On March 19 2020 06:54 IyMoon wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2020 06:28 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:25 IyMoon wrote:On March 19 2020 06:23 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2020 06:18 IyMoon wrote:
UWT is at 27 cents a share.... is it a good idea to just kinda dump 3k into it and pick up 10k shares? Crude isnt going to be down forever I wouldn't do that. Better off storing fuel in the garage/shed for that amount tbh. I'm seriously considering it myself. Why not if you don't mind me asking? 4 months ago this ETF was at 40. If I just toss 3k in and wait 2 years on it could either be worth an amazing amount or be maybe.... half? High risk AMAZING reward? Apart from news of liquidation already appearing on stocktwits, so it won't even exist soon any more probably, are you 100% sure that the issuer, Citigroup, is going to get through this unscathed? I don't think Citigroup is going anywhere. You think theres a chance they just shut the ETN down based of the oil wars going on and companies going under? Edit: Kwark said its a strong buy and I respect him from the POL thread so 3k money on fire it is
I didn't mean that specific ETF, there are other ETFs out there you can buy too like OILU. UWT may cease to trade soon (though assets would be returned through liquidation, wouldn't be a total loss).
I meant that strong in that it's very reasonable to expect oil to go back up in the future and that a leveraged ETF would be a way to take advantage of that.
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United States44015 Posts
There's a 0% chance of Boeing going under because aeronautical engineering is a strategic industry in the US and Boeing may as well be a part of the defence infrastructure at this point. But there is a risk of a government bailout including stock dilution and a new stock class being created for the government to own. That would significantly impact the value of the stock of current owners which is basically the only thing stopping me from buying it.
The company won't be allowed to go under but the current shareholders don't enjoy the same kind of protections. I'd be more worried about it if Bernie was doing better but Biden is one of the old guard, there's no chance he breaks up Boeing imo.
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The stark optics of having to bail out airlines that very recently spent billions in cash on buybacks and executive compensation may put more momentum behind the movement to nationalize the airlines. It probably wont happen in strict terms, but I hope the regulatory framework clamps down on their spending habits.
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