EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 21
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farvacola
United States18843 Posts
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Vivax
22106 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETA7TSPWoAUbEU7?format=jpg&name=900x900) + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETAuOlSX0AEK1eM?format=png&name=small) https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/GC*0 Usually when large spec and commercials move to meet in the middle, it's a good time to buy. First large specs need to get flushed out some more before we go higher. I think the swap dealers are at huge risk here. Buying silver would be the better play for the short-term I think. Basically when managed money aka money incinerators go short. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4374 Posts
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Vivax
22106 Posts
On March 15 2020 23:57 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Gold might be holding up better than most other investments but the paper price still hasn't decoupled from the physical one.I'm certainly not surprised to see delays on physical shipments but my gold shares are dropping sharply the past week or so like everything else on the market.Too much panic. Silver has decoupled. Bullion dealers running out of stock. In Finland they pay you more for selling than you pay for buying (with delay). Either they'll get into trouble with their own shorts at first, then get bailed out, or they'll manage to produce enough collateral in time to use it to cover their shorts. It's going to be a wild ride through which gold will go ballistic. Newmont deep in the red for me as well, but I'll play the waiting game. The truly screwed ones are swap dealers and large speculators. The first have naked shorts on it, and the latter a claim on paper. That's the real beast that's going to blow this over imo. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4374 Posts
Negative rates next? Ban cash so they can introduce negative savings rates without threat of large bank runs? Could be done with the excuse cash spreads the virus.Watch closely. | ||
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Vivax
22106 Posts
On March 16 2020 07:31 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Spoke too soon as gold goes up in a straight line Monday after the Fed cut rates rates to zero Sunday night. Negative rates next? Ban cash so they can introduce negative savings rates without threat of large bank runs? Could be done with the excuse cash spreads the virus.Watch closely. Don't think it'd fly well as excuse if they don't ban door handles first. Trump tweeted he'd like to refinance US debt sometime the last few days. Sounds harmless, but it's actually quite the cause for concern. | ||
KwarK
United States43350 Posts
On March 16 2020 07:57 Vivax wrote: Don't think it'd fly well as excuse if they don't ban door handles first. Trump tweeted he'd like to refinance US debt sometime the last few days. Sounds harmless, but it's actually quite the cause for concern. It’s cause for concern only in as much as Trump apparently believes it is possible to call up some other entity and have them quote rates to take on US debt like you would a mortgage. He can’t actually do it because it doesn’t work that way. | ||
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Vivax
22106 Posts
On March 16 2020 08:03 KwarK wrote: It’s cause for concern only in as much as Trump apparently believes it is possible to call up some other entity and have them quote rates to take on US debt like you would a mortgage. He can’t actually do it because it doesn’t work that way. Up to IMF and world bank. The US, but maybe not only, might have to relinquish part of their SDRs. Could also mean the dollar gets a good chunk of its value cut off in the process. Don't know what I don't know. | ||
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KwarK
United States43350 Posts
On March 16 2020 08:13 Vivax wrote: Up to IMF and world bank. The US, but maybe not only, might have to relinquish part of their SDRs. Could also mean the dollar gets a good chunk of its value cut off in the process. Don't know what I don't know. The US debt is not held at the world bank lol. It’s held by a combination of private investors, state reserves, and itself (social security surplus is in treasuries). There’s no counter party to negotiate lower rates with, or rather too many. And nobody holding the debt is going to voluntarily surrender it for a discount so the only way that it could be refinanced is if they borrowed new money at a lower rate to pay off old, which they already do when the borrowing rates are low. But the US gov doesn’t decide it’s borrowing rate, the market does, and they can’t borrow 23t from a bank and pay off the existing debt. The whole thing is a joke. | ||
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Vivax
22106 Posts
On March 16 2020 08:18 KwarK wrote: The US debt is not held at the world bank lol. Who else is he going to call to resell the debt at a better rate? World bank handles sovereign defaults. If he can't find a greater fool, that's the result, isn't it? The whole thing is a joke. That doesn't end well for the average person and makes a mockery of all work past and present. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://data.whicdn.com/images/336358131/original.gif) Wouldn't be surprised if DJ Pump forced Powell into offensive rate cuts during a bubble at the figurative point of a gun. | ||
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KwarK
United States43350 Posts
On March 16 2020 08:23 Vivax wrote: Who else is he going to call to resell the debt at a better rate? World bank handles sovereign defaults. If he can't find a greater fool, that's the result, isn't it? That doesn't end well for the average person and makes a mockery of all work past and present. + Show Spoiler + Wouldn't be surprised if DJ Pump forced Powell into offensive rate cuts during a bubble at the figurative point of a gun. The world bank is not a literal bank. | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13295 Posts
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GoTuNk!
Chile4591 Posts
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Vivax
22106 Posts
On March 16 2020 22:35 GoTuNk! wrote: sp gonna dip below 2k ? F for the stock market Bold prediction: We'll see what happens when 3x inverse ETFs blow up sometime in the future. Just 2 to 3 more weeks like this til Dow hits 0. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4374 Posts
On March 16 2020 07:57 Vivax wrote: Don't think it'd fly well as excuse if they don't ban door handles first. Trump tweeted he'd like to refinance US debt sometime the last few days. Sounds harmless, but it's actually quite the cause for concern. Does he want to refinance it so he can launch the biggest stimulus project in history? The consensus seems to be people should self isolate at home for a month, giving people money isn't going to do anything if they're not going out and spending it.Most businesses are closing - bars, restaurants, most anything not a grocery store or pharmacy. The stimulus cannot achieve anything. What about US shale producers now that oil is at $30/barrel? What about Boeing? Tourism is 10-15% what it was and falling.This is gonna be the biggest crash in history. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22003 Posts
On March 17 2020 17:12 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Giving people money isn't about keeping the economy going because it can't keep going in this situation as you correctly identified. Its to allow the people who live paycheck to paycheck who are not earning money to be able to buy food and other necessities. Does he want to refinance it so he can launch the biggest stimulus project in history? The consensus seems to be people should self isolate at home for a month, giving people money isn't going to do anything if they're not going out and spending it.Most businesses are closing - bars, restaurants, most anything not a grocery store or pharmacy. The stimulus cannot achieve anything. What about US shale producers now that oil is at $30/barrel? What about Boeing? Tourism is 10-15% what it was and falling.This is gonna be the biggest crash in history. This is a temporary* external disruption of the economy, the idea is you wait it out and then the economy restarts and goes back to the way it was before, tho that to will take a bit of time. *How temporary it is remains to be seen. | ||
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Vivax
22106 Posts
The USD keeps stampeding every other currency. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://i.redd.it/yj9gktsv2fr21.png) Last chance to use € to buy stonks methinks. Not advice. My 6/19 NDX calls just doubled (on the day), can't unload them tho. Credit stress is real. Might be better. The TSLA puts went away like hot cakes. Gains -> Barrick stock Newmont is coming back with a bang. Just being USD denominated gives it an edge. This is it, the weeks where fiat dies, maybe: + Show Spoiler + On March 11 2020 04:18 Vivax wrote: The minsky moment we might be facing is a massive spike in USD (already underway for years now), then a swift collapse after all other currencies are toast. Not going to happen during the middle of the day, first we have to ensure everyone is calm at home in crisis mode, a virus seems like a good reason, the central banks won't be blamed ;-) Probably not, let's see how helicopter money fares. | ||
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FiWiFaKi
Canada9859 Posts
On March 17 2020 03:14 Vivax wrote: Bold prediction: We'll see what happens when 3x inverse ETFs blow up sometime in the future. Just 2 to 3 more weeks like this til Dow hits 0. I wouldn't worry too much, right now we have a very aggressive reaction. At any point that we decide that we've had enough of living like sheep, we can return to normal with little damage to the economy (say 2% of world population death, assuming a roughly 4% death rate with minimal health care and with 50% infection rate). But that 4% is under 1% for people under 65. Worst case scenario for the economy is we stay holed up in our homes for 2 years waiting for a vaccine, market drops 50-60%, and then it being difficult to get everything back up and running resulting in a slow recovery, but we're trying to be humane so alas. Still keeping a lot of my capital in reserve, trying to lock in a good rate against equities to take a hopefully 1.5mil loan when the panic reaches its maximum. If for the last month I alternated buying and selling everyday with the market every day, I wouldn't have to work another day in life lol, I'm sure some investors managed to make crazy money with this market. | ||
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Vivax
22106 Posts
On March 18 2020 08:41 FiWiFaKi wrote: I wouldn't worry too much, right now we have a very aggressive reaction. At any point that we decide that we've had enough of living like sheep, we can return to normal with little damage to the economy (say 2% of world population death, assuming a roughly 4% death rate with minimal health care and with 50% infection rate). But that 4% is under 1% for people under 65. Worst case scenario for the economy is we stay holed up in our homes for 2 years waiting for a vaccine, market drops 50-60%, and then it being difficult to get everything back up and running resulting in a slow recovery, but we're trying to be humane so alas. Still keeping a lot of my capital in reserve, trying to lock in a good rate against equities to take a hopefully 1.5mil loan when the panic reaches its maximum. If for the last month I alternated buying and selling everyday with the market every day, I wouldn't have to work another day in life lol, I'm sure some investors managed to make crazy money with this market. Nope, worst case scenario is a credit freeze. Which is why I'm not going to wait for a bottom forever when it could happen that at some point I can't use the stored cash, only to watch my currency crash shortly thereafter. I'd sleep more soundly if I had USD in my account. I wouldn't have the nerve to daytrade this market on margin, it's explosive in both directions and full of limit hits that stop you from adjusting positions. | ||
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GoTuNk!
Chile4591 Posts
On March 18 2020 09:43 Vivax wrote: Nope, worst case scenario is a credit freeze. Which is why I'm not going to wait for a bottom forever when it could happen that at some point I can't use the stored cash, only to watch my currency crash shortly thereafter. I'd sleep more soundly if I had USD in my account. I wouldn't have the nerve to daytrade this market on margin, it's explosive in both directions and full of limit hits that stop you from adjusting positions. So you are implying my currency will turn into paper money? (like all other foreign ones?) | ||
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