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On February 29 2020 11:16 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On February 29 2020 02:50 CorsairHero wrote:
With the fastest correction in history and 6 trillion gone in 6 days, good luck traders
rofl you realize that traders can make bank from these kinds of things right? Traders can make money when market goes up, down, and sidways you should be wishing luck to investors who are watching their portfolios jumping off a cliff.
oh you just need a special ability to predict the future by looking at up and down movements on a chart of the past and drawing lines
and if you had that special ability then you can make money that only investors dream of
sounds legit
I'm not sure you are even a trader if you say a 12% drop in the US equity portion of a portfolio is falling off a cliff
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On March 01 2020 05:11 CorsairHero wrote:Show nested quote +On February 29 2020 11:16 BerserkSword wrote:On February 29 2020 02:50 CorsairHero wrote:
With the fastest correction in history and 6 trillion gone in 6 days, good luck traders
rofl you realize that traders can make bank from these kinds of things right? Traders can make money when market goes up, down, and sidways you should be wishing luck to investors who are watching their portfolios jumping off a cliff. oh you just need a special ability to predict the future by looking at up and down movements on a chart of the past and drawing lines and if you had that special ability then you can make money that only investors dream of sounds legit I'm not sure you are even a trader if you say a 12% drop in the US equity portion of a portfolio is falling off a cliff
I don't trust a single thing BS says, but I think you are on the wrong side of this one.
It really is odd to sarcastically glhf traders during volatility. This is what they're looking for. They may end up careful what they wished for, but it's fair to say that corrections are an opportunity for traders and, at minimum, a short-term threat to buy-and-hold investors.
Also, there's no technical definition of "falling off a cliff" but the largest one-week drop in the history of the exchange warrants at least a bit of emotive language.
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I predict that the dip in the market truly is just a dip compared to what is about to happen.
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On February 29 2020 11:16 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On February 29 2020 02:50 CorsairHero wrote:
With the fastest correction in history and 6 trillion gone in 6 days, good luck traders
rofl you realize that traders can make bank from these kinds of things right? Traders can make money when market goes up, down, and sidways you should be wishing luck to investors who are watching their portfolios jumping off a cliff.
As far as I know there is no empirical evidence showing that fund managers, traders, professional money managers, quants, hedge funds, what-have-you, are able to reliably generate more than 1-2% returns in excess of what can be achieved by passive investing.
Obviously some traders generate huge profits, but evidence seems to suggest it's entirely due to luck. (People who have beaten index in the past are no more likely than others to beat index in the future).
As long as that is true then the existence of successful traders should no more be taken as evidence of the profitability of trading than the existence of lottery winners should be taken as evidence that lottery tickets are sound investments.
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Where is the evidence suggesting that successful traders are successful completely due to luck?
I don't understand this skepticism towards trading, except in corsairhero's case where it's obvious he doesn't really know what trading is. Do you guys think prop traders, floor traders on exchanges, market makers, flow traders, and profitable retail traders around the world are all just degenerate gamblers who get lucky? The market is not random and it can be read, at least to a certain point at which you have an edge.
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On March 01 2020 06:28 Belisarius wrote:Show nested quote +On March 01 2020 05:11 CorsairHero wrote:On February 29 2020 11:16 BerserkSword wrote:On February 29 2020 02:50 CorsairHero wrote:
With the fastest correction in history and 6 trillion gone in 6 days, good luck traders
rofl you realize that traders can make bank from these kinds of things right? Traders can make money when market goes up, down, and sidways you should be wishing luck to investors who are watching their portfolios jumping off a cliff. oh you just need a special ability to predict the future by looking at up and down movements on a chart of the past and drawing lines and if you had that special ability then you can make money that only investors dream of sounds legit I'm not sure you are even a trader if you say a 12% drop in the US equity portion of a portfolio is falling off a cliff I don't trust a single thing BS says, but I think you are on the wrong side of this one. It really is odd to sarcastically glhf traders during volatility. This is what they're looking for. They may end up careful what they wished for, but it's fair to say that corrections are an opportunity for traders and, at minimum, a short-term threat to buy-and-hold investors. Also, there's no technical definition of "falling off a cliff" but the largest one-week drop in the history of the exchange warrants at least a bit of emotive language.
Traders (I loosely consider that to be people who hold assets for less than a year) maybe hoping for periods of volatility but it doesn't give me any more confidence in their ability to predict the future. Bigger swings may present an opportunity to make more money or the opposite. I said glhf because they're the ones who are going to be much more active than the buy and hold investor who may see this as an opportunity to rebalance if their allocations shifted enough.
Buy and hold investors get to buy more units then they normally would have which is a win for them. I don't see it as a threat to them. Those approaching the point of cashing out would have a larger portion of fixed income which would have gone up a bit this week to offset the equity correction.
The technical term is correction. I was just pointing that that the term falling off a cliff shows how little BS knows about index investors where they have fixed income for these kinds of situations. Those investors would have seen single digit paper losses. I think the term "falling off a cliff" is more suited for the guy who was bragging about a triple leveraged tech fund which dropped 40% this week,
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On March 01 2020 06:47 travis wrote:
I predict that the dip in the market truly is just a dip compared to what is about to happen.
Most stocks are in pretty firm hands after so many cycles. The worst that could happen is that CBs start pulling out of the bond market and trigger a wave of bankruptcies, or a systemic bank failure. I'm betting on the latter.
Should add that the problems ahead are in Euro banks, afterwards bullion banks.
How do you short this market if your intermediary is toast? Can only do it in EU :/
On March 01 2020 07:01 KlaCkoN wrote:
As far as I know there is no empirical evidence showing that fund managers, traders, professional money managers, quants, hedge funds, what-have-you, are able to reliably generate more than 1-2% returns in excess of what can be achieved by passive investing.
The response to 2k8 was for CBs to buy bonds (QE). That's like shooting money at anything that resembles a company. The reason that passive investing was so successful was in big part due to this imo.
Can't have everything in the market go up if crappy companies are actually allowed to fail, but they didn't allow that because they still haven't figured out how to run an economy without banks that would fail whenever they stopped.
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On February 28 2020 00:30 travis wrote:
I have made some pretty huge returns from put on AAL and call on GILD
making another call on GILD, 2 month put on SPY, might put on UAL and DAL, might consider a call on MRNA if it drops a little first.
wow, i just looked at AAL, damn that drop is steep (I dont trade, i just got lost on the forum, and ended up here)
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United States24775 Posts
Who else bought out of the money SPX calls on Friday? Did you sell them yet? I got one.
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On March 03 2020 07:57 micronesia wrote:
Who else bought out of the money SPX calls on Friday? Did you sell them yet? I got one.
If I had bought some, I wouldve sold already.
The IV is currently insanely high. They were high on Friday too. I wouldnt want to get IV crushed So I'd just lock in the nice profit
Not financial advice
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It's almost as if the Dow has been in a 24k-26k range for two years now with a bunch of noise.
We should crowd source a company that produces stocks. We'd all be rich.
Gold up dollar down after emergency 50 pt rate cut. Price surge swiftly sold off in indices.
US banks don't like it either.
The average saver will like it even less.
Cash hoarding banks coming to the US too?
Newmont +6% today. Polymetal almost 8. 
And the king dollar theory not looking so good now.I'm fine if the € is the last one standing, still think this weakness is transitory though.
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United States24775 Posts
On March 03 2020 13:42 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2020 07:57 micronesia wrote:
Who else bought out of the money SPX calls on Friday? Did you sell them yet? I got one. If I had bought some, I wouldve sold already. The IV is currently insanely high. They were high on Friday too. I wouldnt want to get IV crushed So I'd just lock in the nice profit Not financial advice
By waiting I sold higher (82% profit in the end). Then the fed cut rates so I could have made more haha.
Edit: nope glad I sold.
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On March 03 2020 21:35 Vivax wrote:It's almost as if the Dow has been in a 24k-26k range for two years now with a bunch of noise. We should crowd source a company that produces stocks. We'd all be rich. Gold up dollar down after emergency 50 pt rate cut. Price surge swiftly sold off in indices. US banks don't like it either. The average saver will like it even less. Cash hoarding banks coming to the US too? Newmont +6% today. Polymetal almost 8. And the king dollar theory not looking so good now.I'm fine if the € is the last one standing, still think this weakness is transitory though.
Euro will follow eventually,similar to how qe started in usa before it did in eu (which gave euro/dollar 1.40)
I dont know when,i dont think euro will go 1.40 again. Maybe 1,20 or something and then eu starts and it goes to 1/1.
For dow i think its waiting for the next drop,maybe beginning next week.
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On March 05 2020 01:08 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2020 21:35 Vivax wrote:It's almost as if the Dow has been in a 24k-26k range for two years now with a bunch of noise. We should crowd source a company that produces stocks. We'd all be rich. Gold up dollar down after emergency 50 pt rate cut. Price surge swiftly sold off in indices. US banks don't like it either. The average saver will like it even less. Cash hoarding banks coming to the US too? Newmont +6% today. Polymetal almost 8. And the king dollar theory not looking so good now.I'm fine if the € is the last one standing, still think this weakness is transitory though. Euro will follow eventually,similar to how qe started in usa before it did in eu (which gave euro/dollar 1.40) I dont know when,i dont think euro will go 1.40 again. Maybe 1,20 or something and then eu starts and it goes to 1/1. For dow i think its waiting for the next drop,maybe beginning next week.
I think this Friday or coming Monday. The yield curve is about to un-invert. That's about when the repo madness started last year.
Repo also preceded the last major crisis and was for a shorter duration. This one has lasted for a crapload of time. The injected liquidity so far surely went into a trillion at least.
I think they'll halt all trading and ban short-selling, stay away from margin. It's going to be a shitstorm of historic proportions. Maybe, maybe I'm being a tad too pessimistic here, but when the govt. gets into the market things can get crazy.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M
Put the time frame on max and guess what is about to happen.
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fed is gonna end up destroying the dollar for real
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On March 05 2020 06:07 travis wrote:
fed is gonna end up destroying the dollar for real
Don't think so, theres some coordination between the CB's. Canada's fed cut .5 as well
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On March 05 2020 06:07 travis wrote:
fed is gonna end up destroying the dollar for real
I am praying they do. I need some inflation so I can eliminate mortgage insurance and then just ride it from there.
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United States24775 Posts
Wow that is so incredibly selfish hahahaha.
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On March 05 2020 07:29 micronesia wrote:
Wow that is so incredibly selfish hahahaha.
My understanding is that inflation is great for people with debt so long as wages also inflate. So I guess it'd be good for our student loan crisis too!
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EPT
