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South American Politics thread - Page 57

Forum Index > General Forum
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IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
June 19 2020 19:43 GMT
#1121
Venezuela will likely cease to exist this decade. Mass famine and nothing of value (its oil price having dropped and remaining low) will turn it into a political no-man's-land.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
June 19 2020 21:04 GMT
#1122
--- Nuked ---
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
June 20 2020 01:46 GMT
#1123
On June 20 2020 06:04 JimmiC wrote:
If Maduro continues to hold power you might be right. They have lots of gold and iron ore to go with all the oil that is much cheaper to get at than fracing or oilsands. If they were properly maintained they would still be doing fairly well even at these low prices, the low production is the biggest issues. They also have tons of great land for growing crops. However right now it is mainly used to grow narcotics and they have their version of blood gold that the gangs control and treat the workers and environment atrociously.

Maduro is making all his money from that gold and more the drugs so it basically a narco state riddled with corruption to steal what little money is actually still created in the economy. And as long as Maduro holds power and the US and Europe have prohibition this will likely continue. Even the CLAP (food given to the poor) is a grift. Not only do only people who vote Maduro get it, but there is a huge discrpenentcy between what Mexici charges them and what their books say . And somehow while the vast majority of people starve Maduro, his genrals and their families and friends live like kings.

Venezuela should easily be the wealthiest country in South America and have living standards comparable to the western democracies of NA and Europe. But they are sobfar away from that with little hope of making up the differences. And the US sanctions are not helping, but it was going way downhill with millions of refugees before that.

They should probably stop them just because it really has not shook his power at all and with the economy basically at 0 he can still make enough money off of Ellicit activities to keep his and the other power brokers lifestyles grandiose.


It doesn't matter if Maduro steps down. The only reason he still has power is because there's no viable leader who can wrest control from him. And there's no reason another country would bother going in and cleaning up the mess. Oil is cheap now and it's not coming back for the foreseeable future.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-06-20 02:54:07
June 20 2020 02:29 GMT
#1124
--- Nuked ---
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
June 20 2020 04:31 GMT
#1125
If the frackers go out of business then Venezuela goes out of business. Most of the refineries in the US won't even be able to use the Venezuelan crude in a few years because they are retooling them all away from low grade crude.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 03 2020 12:33 GMT
#1126
--- Nuked ---
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
July 03 2020 14:08 GMT
#1127
On July 03 2020 21:33 JimmiC wrote:
Sorry inge I thought I responded to this earlier. It is much cheaper to get oil out of Venezuela, it sort of looks expensive because of the high taxes but given that the government seized the biggest oil company it more of an accounting trick (about 1/3 of the cost per barrel is "taxes". But even at the cost of 26 dollars a barrel there is a lot of money to be made there. The biggest issue is they didn't properly maintain their current rigs because of mass corruption and very few foreign companies (China and Russia have) are willing to make much of a foreign investment because they can't trust that it will maintained but more than that the worry is that Maduro will blame them for any problems and take that company. Which would have been OK for the Venezuelan people if the government corruption didn't take away all the profit and they didn't want to maintain anything because that was less that they could steal. The big thing is low oil prices don't break the big oil companies, what it does is stop all captial investment so there is no longer and of the construction economy around new Oil.

http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/


In even worse news the health crisis is getting worse in Venezuela, some of their frozen assets have been unfrozen and to be used by the health care workers, hopefully most of it actually makes it to the people!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/02/new-deal-could-ease-venezuelas-humanitarian-crisis-international-community-must-get-behind-it/#comments-wrapper


Yes I agree that upfront capital investment and/or maintenance of existing systems is the most important factor. Still bad news for Venezuela.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 03 2020 14:15 GMT
#1128
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
July 20 2020 20:16 GMT
#1129
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
August 19 2020 22:54 GMT
#1130
--- Nuked ---
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9771 Posts
October 19 2020 16:30 GMT
#1131
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.
RIP Meatloaf <3
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
October 19 2020 16:35 GMT
#1132
--- Nuked ---
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9771 Posts
October 19 2020 16:53 GMT
#1133
On October 20 2020 01:35 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 20 2020 01:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.

That is pretty awesome. I was worried that when Morales tried to make it about himself instead of the movement his party was lost but they were able to win legitimately and much larger. It appears the Bolivians wanted MAS they just didn't want a 4th term of Morales and slipping into a dictatorship. Big win for democracy.

Yeah its a good showing all round. Less right wing governments in the world is good even if I doubt it'll have one iota of an effect in the US or Europe.
RIP Meatloaf <3
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
October 19 2020 17:30 GMT
#1134
--- Nuked ---
ShoCkeyy
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
7815 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-19 18:26:23
October 19 2020 18:23 GMT
#1135
Since there isn't a "Caribbean politics thread" and SA is about as close I can get, Cuba is running out of food. Since Trump added the embargo again, and COVID basically stopped all flights, which a lot of Cuban Americans would fly to Cuba from Miami to bring food, has ceased to exist now. Cuba is literally running out of food. I personally feel that Cuba was part of the dictatorship takeover of Venezuela, they send a lot of "doctors and army personal" to Venezuela for what ever reason.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/20/world/americas/cuba-economy.html

The beginning statement says "Cuba was able to control the coronavirus" is also a lie, shits rampant, it's just Cuban propaganda. Now that the island has internet, we receive calls from our Cuban family through Facebook and their number of tools. People are still getting sick, but the people also don't care at this point. They live in hell basically.
Life?
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
October 19 2020 19:12 GMT
#1136
--- Nuked ---
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12391 Posts
October 19 2020 19:14 GMT
#1137
On October 20 2020 01:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Show nested quote +
Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.


That is pretty fucking awesome.
No will to live, no wish to die
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23659 Posts
October 19 2020 20:28 GMT
#1138
On October 20 2020 04:14 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 20 2020 01:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.


That is pretty fucking awesome.


Indeed. Massive effort from MaS overcoming a lot of forces pitted against them.
'
As for Cuba, what the US does to Cuba is clearly a crime against humanity (imo). Last UN vote was 187 supporting the annual condemnation of US sanctions, Brazil, Israel and the US were the only nations in the world to vote against the condemnation.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
ShoCkeyy
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
7815 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-19 21:03:14
October 19 2020 21:02 GMT
#1139
On October 20 2020 05:28 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 20 2020 04:14 Nebuchad wrote:
On October 20 2020 01:30 Jockmcplop wrote:
Looks like Bolivia is returning to socialism after a brief stint with a right wing government.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales-party-luis-arce

Exit polls suggest Evo Morales’s leftwing party has pulled off a stunning political comeback in Bolivia’s presidential election, although an official result has yet to emerge.

Two private surveys projected that Luis Arce, the candidate for Morales’s Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas), secured more than 50% of the vote in the ballot on Sunday, with his closest rival, the centrist former president Carlos Mesa, receiving about 30%.


That is pretty fucking awesome.


Indeed. Massive effort from MaS overcoming a lot of forces pitted against them.
'
As for Cuba, what the US does to Cuba is clearly a crime against humanity (imo). Last UN vote was 187 supporting the annual condemnation of US sanctions, Brazil, Israel and the US were the only nations in the world to vote against the condemnation.


What the Cuban government also does to its people is a crime. I'm sure the government will be fine, but the rest of them won't. As soon as you enter the country, you're immediately being bribed by the airport officials. "Oh this will cost you to bring it into the country, but if you give me $100 (AMERICAN), I can let you get it in for cheaper."

This has no reference, they literally will do that for any piece of item you bring with you just to syphon money from tourists.
Life?
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28743 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-10-19 21:19:56
October 19 2020 21:19 GMT
#1140
Hm is that a recent development? I remember as a tourist we got fleeced through virtue of having to pay dollars instead of pesos, but the actual corruption was non-existent. We tipped after one meal - and then I remember my dad was very conscious to hand over the money in an invisible manner. We even used a private cab and were caught by the police - but their treatment of us was fantastic - they asked to see our passports and ordered us a new official cab. (now, the cab drivers looked to be some of the more massively worried people I've ever seen, no doubt the punishment they were due for was in no way proportional to their crime - I'm just wondering about the corruption and bribes part because that was something I genuinely didn't see, at all. (But - been 15 years since I was there, so I'm not disputing that it happens now.)
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