EPTUS Politics Mega-thread - Page 990
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On December 16 2018 08:09 Introvert wrote: I found your problem. In fact, that's the problem I've been referring to this whole time.The definition of flimsy you all seem to be using is a novel one. In fairness it's the same one Republicans use when trying to excuse the seemingly endless amounts of dodgy shit surrounding Trump. On December 16 2018 02:42 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: If Trump runs as an Independent/ third-party candidate in the general election, he'll be guaranteeing a Democratic president because of the Republican votes he'll steal. Also - and this is just the mathematician in me - 99.9999 repeating % is exactly equal to 100%. That was the joke. If he ran as an independent he'd just get all the Republican votes and it'd be like he ran as the Republican nominee. Besides, I once heard that the parties can't decide who runs? Like, they just say 'I'mma run as a Republican!' and that's that, and it depends on whether or not people vote for them. I think you're both underestimating Trump's popularity and overestimating Democrat competence in the current climate. Unless Sanders runs as their nominee, the chances of a Trump double are pretty high. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7971 Posts
On December 16 2018 21:16 iamthedave wrote: In fairness it's the same one Republicans use when trying to excuse the seemingly endless amounts of dodgy shit surrounding Trump. That was the joke. If he ran as an independent he'd just get all the Republican votes and it'd be like he ran as the Republican nominee. Besides, I once heard that the parties can't decide who runs? Like, they just say 'I'mma run as a Republican!' and that's that, and it depends on whether or not people vote for them. I think you're both underestimating Trump's popularity and overestimating Democrat competence in the current climate. Unless Sanders runs as their nominee, the chances of a Trump double are pretty high. I don’t think so. Granted i never thought people would be stupid enough to nominate AND elect a man like that in the first place so I could be wrong again, but Trump had all the possible advantages he could get and barely pulled a win in 2016. He was running against a highly unpopular candidate, who was a woman, who had been the target of more or less artificially fabricated scandals, who ran a terrible campaign and that he could call « crooked » because apparently being horrendously dishonest in business life doesn’t mean you shouldn’t complain that your opponents are corrup. Allof those evaporate in 2020. And whole categories of voters such as union democrats and so on who might have voted for him will tell him to fuck off, and don’t forget, every year that passes sees the democratic voter base grow and the republican shrink as the country is becoming more diverse, more urban and more educated. Trump is a dead man imo. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On December 16 2018 06:08 Ayaz2810 wrote: It is flimsy. It's the difference between a suggestion and a law. Big difference. There is nothing flimsy about a DOJ guideline. It is policy within the justice department. No one is going to rewrite that rule book. | ||
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Ayaz2810
United States2763 Posts
On December 16 2018 23:18 Plansix wrote: There is nothing flimsy about a DOJ guideline. It is policy within the justice department. No one is going to rewrite that rule book. I think it's entirely possible given the gravity of the crimes we know have been committed, but have not yet been made official. We shall see. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On December 17 2018 01:06 Ayaz2810 wrote: I think it's entirely possible given the gravity of the crimes we know have been committed, but have not yet been made official. We shall see. The president is the head of the branch that would bring charges against him. A court can’t summon the president to appear. There is no way to find an impartial jury. There is no operational for those charges to be enforced if president is found guilty. | ||
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Kyadytim
United States886 Posts
On December 17 2018 04:00 Plansix wrote: That bit about an impartial jury theoretically holds even after the president is no longer in office. Does that mean de-facto immunity to prosecution for all crimes for anyone elected president?The president is the head of the branch that would bring charges against him. A court can’t summon the president to appear. There is no way to find an impartial jury. There is no operational for those charges to be enforced if president is found guilty. | ||
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nojok
France15845 Posts
On December 16 2018 22:51 Biff The Understudy wrote: the democratic voter base grow and the republican shrink as the country is becoming more diverse, more urban and more educated. Well maybe educated urban citizens should not be so arrogant towards uneducated countrymen, it would help to fight people like Trump or Le Pen. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7971 Posts
On December 17 2018 07:48 nojok wrote: Well maybe educated urban citizens should not be so arrogant towards uneducated countrymen, it would help to fight people like Trump or Le Pen. I’m just stating demographic realities. Trump’s base is made of rural and suburban white men without a college degree. He wouldn’t come close to have a chance without them as he is beat in basically every other category of the population. It happens that this is a shrinking demographic in the US. Enlighten me on how this is arrogant. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9275 Posts
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Sermokala
United States14103 Posts
On December 17 2018 08:11 Biff The Understudy wrote: I’m just stating demographic realities. Trump’s base is made of rural and suburban white men without a college degree. He wouldn’t come close to have a chance without them as he is beat in basically every other category of the population. It happens that this is a shrinking demographic in the US. Enlighten me on how this is arrogant. Because this is the default position after the left loses anything in all of time ever. That trend hasn't been interrupted for a very long time and yet trump. Also its dishonest to believe that a margin group isn't going to have power in Us politics. Just look at black people. They're 13% or so of the American population but they matter a lot more than that. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On December 17 2018 08:18 Sent. wrote: How is he beat in every other category? He won the vote in "educated whte male" and "white female" categories too And lost the popular vote despite that. Trump barely won that election. On December 17 2018 07:48 nojok wrote: Well maybe educated urban citizens should not be so arrogant towards uneducated countrymen, it would help to fight people like Trump or Le Pen. As someone who grew up in rural America, being nice to rural Americans won’t make them vote any different. Or stop them from talking shit about urban Americans. Ya all act like this rural/urban divide is a new thing, rather than the foundation of America. | ||
Womwomwom
5930 Posts
On December 17 2018 08:25 Sermokala wrote: Also its dishonest to believe that a margin group isn't going to have power in Us politics. Just look at black people. They're 13% or so of the American population but they matter a lot more than that. That's only because of the influence black Americans have had on American film and music culture. At this point they're basically the backbone of America's soft power right now, hip hop culture is synonymous with US popular culture and fashion. Even then, there are still huge issues with appropriation like with Fortnite not crediting black creators and Post Malone actively profiting from "the culture" while simultaneously trashing on it. But politically? Not even close, they're still a marginalized group. Meek Mill managed to beat the awful US probation system but he's a millionaire with powerful contacts from Josh Harris, owner of the Philadelphia 76ers, to Dr Dre. Most other black Americans go through a system intentionally created to make it as easy as possible to keep them jailed. They still go through struggles with landlords discriminating against them. They're still dealing with car dealerships giving them different interest rates compared to customers of a different racial background. I mean, in the Senate, 3% are black. In the House of Reps, a total of 144 have ever been seated. Those aren't numbers indicating a politically powerful minority group. Its worse for other groups, such as those from East/South East Asian who are barely represented at all in American culture. Like Hawaii Five-0's Asian cast who quit their jobs because they had to deal with far worse pay and benefits compared to their co-stars for little real justification. | ||
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argonautdice
Canada2719 Posts
The only counter-example I know is Mahathir Prime Minister of Malaysia (and maybe Giorgio Napolitano) who at age 93 still seems to be of sound mind, and he only came out of retirement because he had to. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11744 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France7971 Posts
On December 17 2018 08:18 Sent. wrote: How is he beat in every other category? He won the vote in "educated whte male" and "white female" categories too You are right. I remember wrongly. Still remains that white men without a college degree remains the category where Trump and the GOP makes his biggest reservoir of votes. That’s not even close if you look at the midterms: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls I think I made a bad mash up in my head of some separate 538 maps that showed that democrats overwhelmingly won women, urban citizen, college educated americans, non white citizens, young people and so on. | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On December 16 2018 22:51 Biff The Understudy wrote: I don’t think so. Granted i never thought people would be stupid enough to nominate AND elect a man like that in the first place so I could be wrong again, but Trump had all the possible advantages he could get and barely pulled a win in 2016. He was running against a highly unpopular candidate, who was a woman, who had been the target of more or less artificially fabricated scandals, who ran a terrible campaign and that he could call « crooked » because apparently being horrendously dishonest in business life doesn’t mean you shouldn’t complain that your opponents are corrup. Allof those evaporate in 2020. And whole categories of voters such as union democrats and so on who might have voted for him will tell him to fuck off, and don’t forget, every year that passes sees the democratic voter base grow and the republican shrink as the country is becoming more diverse, more urban and more educated. Trump is a dead man imo. Trump will have one critical advantage going into 2020 (unless something changes): the economy will be on the rise. He can campaign relentlessly on 'I promised a better economy and look, a better economy'. There isn't much of a better vote-getter than 'I promised to make your lives better and did'. He's also far more popular as President than he was as a candidate, his actual popularity numbers aren't much worse than Obama at this point in his own tenure. Worse, outside of Sanders - who the establishment hates - the Democrats have no strong candidate to put up against him. The frontrunner at the minute seems to be Biden, who seems very very easy to attack and is likely to run on Trump's awfulness more than anything else, and that's been proven to fail. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22085 Posts
On December 17 2018 20:55 iamthedave wrote: 2020 is a long way away and Trump is still waging a trade war. Saying he will have an economy on the rise is a BIG guess.Trump will have one critical advantage going into 2020 (unless something changes): the economy will be on the rise. He can campaign relentlessly on 'I promised a better economy and look, a better economy'. There isn't much of a better vote-getter than 'I promised to make your lives better and did'. He's also far more popular as President than he was as a candidate, his actual popularity numbers aren't much worse than Obama at this point in his own tenure. Worse, outside of Sanders - who the establishment hates - the Democrats have no strong candidate to put up against him. The frontrunner at the minute seems to be Biden, who seems very very easy to attack and is likely to run on Trump's awfulness more than anything else, and that's been proven to fail. | ||
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farvacola
United States18846 Posts
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KwarK
United States43563 Posts
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