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On December 15 2018 06:56 Plansix wrote:
Trump could make it to 2020 easily. No amount of investigations, drama or criminal activity is going to change that 18 Republican votes to convict him in the Senate. Or to put it differently, he just need 34 Republican Senators to vote against conviction. The politics of impeachment will need to change a lot between now and 2020.
I would say the real question is whether or not KAVANAUGH thinks a sitting President can be indicted for crimes he committed while not President. SDNY has enough to make an indictment for the Cohen payments. John Edwards made it all the way to the jury. Will KAV stop the indictment?
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What do you guys make of them sealing off a floor at the D.C. Federal Courthouse? There was reporting on it previously that it has to do with a sealed grand jury of Mueller's. Of course people can only speculate, but idk how common place doing something like that is.
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On December 15 2018 08:02 Tachion wrote:
What do you guys make of them sealing off a floor at the D.C. Federal Courthouse? There was reporting on it previously that it has to do with a sealed grand jury of Mueller's. Of course people can only speculate, but idk how common place doing something like that is.
Don't forget about this Politico article:
Back before the D.C. Circuit, this case’s very special handling continued. On October 10, the day the case returned to the court, the parties filed a motion for expedited handling, and within two days, the judges had granted their motion and set an accelerated briefing schedule. The witness was given just 11 days to file briefs; the special counsel (presumably) just two weeks to respond; and reply papers one week later, on November 14 (for those paying attention, that’s eight days after the midterm elections). Oral arguments are set for December 14.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/31/has-robert-mueller-subpoenaed-trump-222060
The timing lining up sure is interesting.
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On December 15 2018 08:05 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2018 08:02 Tachion wrote:
What do you guys make of them sealing off a floor at the D.C. Federal Courthouse? There was reporting on it previously that it has to do with a sealed grand jury of Mueller's. Of course people can only speculate, but idk how common place doing something like that is. Don't forget about this Politico article: Show nested quote +
Back before the D.C. Circuit, this case’s very special handling continued. On October 10, the day the case returned to the court, the parties filed a motion for expedited handling, and within two days, the judges had granted their motion and set an accelerated briefing schedule. The witness was given just 11 days to file briefs; the special counsel (presumably) just two weeks to respond; and reply papers one week later, on November 14 (for those paying attention, that’s eight days after the midterm elections). Oral arguments are set for December 14.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/31/has-robert-mueller-subpoenaed-trump-222060The timing lining up sure is interesting.
here is an article from Law and Crime stating the politico article is wrong
https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/legal-expert-mueller-already-subpoenaed-trump-yeah-thats-completely-bogus/
Personally I don't think it is Trump. The president could not get around that easily without people noticing (A good president probably could, but do we really think trump has the logistics?)
My guess is that it is Trump JR. High profile enough to get all the treatment this case is getting. Would get the judge trump appointed to recuse himself, and would be able to get in and out of the court room easier than the president
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On December 15 2018 06:56 Plansix wrote:
Trump could make it to 2020 easily. No amount of investigations, drama or criminal activity is going to change that 18 Republican votes to convict him in the Senate. Or to put it differently, he just need 34 Republican Senators to vote against conviction. The politics of impeachment will need to change a lot between now and 2020.
I disagree. Republicans in Congress see Trump as a means to an end. As soon as he becomes more trouble then he's worth they'll be the first one to cast him aside. They do not want to be "Trumps party" for any number of reasons (losing 40 house seats is somehwere on that list). Things are going to get worse as the investigations build up and Trump inevitably becomes more unhinged. You are already seeing the occasional article about people in the GOP distancing themselves from Trump in a way they wouldnt have a year ago. That will only become more pronounced as time goes on. Mueller gives them as much cover as it does the Dems.
Also, the more we learn the more likely it becomes that Mueller has significant, tangible evidence of multiple criminal acts by the President and his cronies/family. He has massive pool of cooperating witnesses and troves of evidence, including emails, financial records, and tapes. People who know Mueller have said he would never have allowed the investigation to go on for long if he didn't have something substantial.
While it may end up being that Trump is removed by the Mueller report in the form of the 2020 election as opposed to impeachment (largely depends on how much more time Mueller needs), at this point I think the only way Trump avoids direct evidence of criminal activity coming to light is if he is innocent. Tho I dont there is a sane person alive who would wager their reputation or livelihood on that infinitesimal possibility.
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On December 15 2018 08:12 On_Slaught wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2018 06:56 Plansix wrote:
Trump could make it to 2020 easily. No amount of investigations, drama or criminal activity is going to change that 18 Republican votes to convict him in the Senate. Or to put it differently, he just need 34 Republican Senators to vote against conviction. The politics of impeachment will need to change a lot between now and 2020. I disagree. Republicans in Congress see Trump as a means to an end. As soon as he becomes more trouble then he's worth they'll be the first one to cast him aside. They do not want to be "Trumps party" for any number of reasons (losing 40 house seats is somehwere on that list). Things are going to get worse as the investigations build up and Trump inevitably becomes more unhinged. You are already seeing the occasional article about people in the GOP distancing themselves from Trump in a way they wouldnt have a year ago. That will only become more pronounced as time goes on. Mueller gives them as much cover as it does the Dems. Also, the more we learn the more likely it becomes that Mueller has significant, tangible evidence of multiple criminal acts by the President and his cronies/family. He has massive pool of cooperating witnesses and troves of evidence, including emails and tapes. People who know Mueller have said he would never have allowed the investigation to go on for long if he didn't have something substantial. While it may end up being that Trump is removed by the Mueller report in the form of the 2020 election as opposed to impeachment (largely depends on how much more time Mueller needs), at this point I think the only way Trump avoids direct evidence of criminal activity coming to light is if he is innocent. Tho I dont there is a sane person alive who would wager their reputation or livelihood on that infinitesimal possibility. None of that matters to the Republican base that elected him, they are not a segment of the party the GOP can afford to piss off by dumping Trump. You know he will attack them like a mad dog on if it happens and it would set up their own base against them.
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On December 15 2018 08:17 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2018 08:12 On_Slaught wrote:On December 15 2018 06:56 Plansix wrote:
Trump could make it to 2020 easily. No amount of investigations, drama or criminal activity is going to change that 18 Republican votes to convict him in the Senate. Or to put it differently, he just need 34 Republican Senators to vote against conviction. The politics of impeachment will need to change a lot between now and 2020. I disagree. Republicans in Congress see Trump as a means to an end. As soon as he becomes more trouble then he's worth they'll be the first one to cast him aside. They do not want to be "Trumps party" for any number of reasons (losing 40 house seats is somehwere on that list). Things are going to get worse as the investigations build up and Trump inevitably becomes more unhinged. You are already seeing the occasional article about people in the GOP distancing themselves from Trump in a way they wouldnt have a year ago. That will only become more pronounced as time goes on. Mueller gives them as much cover as it does the Dems. Also, the more we learn the more likely it becomes that Mueller has significant, tangible evidence of multiple criminal acts by the President and his cronies/family. He has massive pool of cooperating witnesses and troves of evidence, including emails and tapes. People who know Mueller have said he would never have allowed the investigation to go on for long if he didn't have something substantial. While it may end up being that Trump is removed by the Mueller report in the form of the 2020 election as opposed to impeachment (largely depends on how much more time Mueller needs), at this point I think the only way Trump avoids direct evidence of criminal activity coming to light is if he is innocent. Tho I dont there is a sane person alive who would wager their reputation or livelihood on that infinitesimal possibility. None of that matters to the Republican base that elected him, they are not a segment of the party the GOP can afford to piss off by dumping Trump. You know he will attack them like a mad dog on if it happens and it would set up their own base against them.
But if they are losing votes because of Trump anyways then what's the point? IMO, Trump is by far the biggest existential threat to the GOP right now and party leadership knows it. The last election showed how young people were driven away from the GOP enmasse and they did significantly worse with women. They need a way off the train and Mueller gives it, tho they will have to do it strategically to minimize the damage from his cult.
I dont have much respect for Republican Congressmen, but I
think that not even they could do nothing if Muellers report showed significant and indisputible evidence of criminal activity and/or collusion. Maybe I'm being naive, who knows. Good news is we'll find out the answer sooner or later.
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On December 15 2018 08:27 On_Slaught wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2018 08:17 Gorsameth wrote:On December 15 2018 08:12 On_Slaught wrote:On December 15 2018 06:56 Plansix wrote:
Trump could make it to 2020 easily. No amount of investigations, drama or criminal activity is going to change that 18 Republican votes to convict him in the Senate. Or to put it differently, he just need 34 Republican Senators to vote against conviction. The politics of impeachment will need to change a lot between now and 2020. I disagree. Republicans in Congress see Trump as a means to an end. As soon as he becomes more trouble then he's worth they'll be the first one to cast him aside. They do not want to be "Trumps party" for any number of reasons (losing 40 house seats is somehwere on that list). Things are going to get worse as the investigations build up and Trump inevitably becomes more unhinged. You are already seeing the occasional article about people in the GOP distancing themselves from Trump in a way they wouldnt have a year ago. That will only become more pronounced as time goes on. Mueller gives them as much cover as it does the Dems. Also, the more we learn the more likely it becomes that Mueller has significant, tangible evidence of multiple criminal acts by the President and his cronies/family. He has massive pool of cooperating witnesses and troves of evidence, including emails and tapes. People who know Mueller have said he would never have allowed the investigation to go on for long if he didn't have something substantial. While it may end up being that Trump is removed by the Mueller report in the form of the 2020 election as opposed to impeachment (largely depends on how much more time Mueller needs), at this point I think the only way Trump avoids direct evidence of criminal activity coming to light is if he is innocent. Tho I dont there is a sane person alive who would wager their reputation or livelihood on that infinitesimal possibility. None of that matters to the Republican base that elected him, they are not a segment of the party the GOP can afford to piss off by dumping Trump. You know he will attack them like a mad dog on if it happens and it would set up their own base against them. But if they are losing votes because of Trump anyways then what's the point? IMO, Trump is by far the biggest existential threat to the GOP right now and party leadership knows it. The last election showed how young people were driven away from the GOP enmasse and they did significantly worse with women. They need a way off the train and Mueller gives it, tho they will have to do it strategically to minimize the damage from his cult. I dont have much respect for Republican Congressmen, but I think that not even they could do nothing if Muellers report showed significant and indisputible evidence of criminal activity and/or collusion. Maybe I'm being naive, who knows. Good news is we'll find out the answer sooner or later.
The Republicans have had dozens of chances to turn on Trump. They have defended him tooth and nail, refused to budge, claimed the blue sky is black, the grass is red, left is right, whatever Trump has said the GOP has backed to the hilt. Multiple supposedly respectable senators going on TV to back up his relentless bullshit.
They are ALL IN on Trump. He is being lionised as one of the greatest Republican Presidents of all time by multiple Conservative sources, and every single Trump skeptic got hammered in the recent elections.
There is no GOP without Trump right now. He is them.
On the simple, straightforward optics of it, why would the Republicans want to have two impeached Presidents under their wing? It'll embolden the Democrats, they'll get savaged by their own voters, where's the upside? There isn't one.
It's fantasy to believe the GOP is going to do anything but shield and protect Trump at every turn. They've run wall-to-wall hit pieces on the FBI for the best part of a year now because it has the nerve, the very audacity, to investigate Trump for things current senators called him out for.
The writing on the wall is very clear on this one.
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Trump is a symptom of the GOP's problem, he is not the root cause.
The problem is the rabid base the GOP has been cultivating for decades that is coming to collect. It used to be dog whistles and vague handwaiving. Trump let the genie out of the bottle and I'm not sure the GOP can put it back.
They are losing votes because of Trump, but I think the amount of votes they lose by dumping their base is bigger then what they can win in independents. Especially in the short term of 2020.
Much easier to tough it out until 2020 and convince Trump to not run for a second term and try to run a more palatable candidate (and probably fail as the primaries push another hard-liner forward).
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The charges and investigations coming out of the southern district of New York has a much better chance of changing the narrative, IMO. Like the Cohan charges and guilty plea. They have a good chance of finding criminal activity that we did not know about, which has not been debated to death on TV.
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If Republicans end up being that stubborn, then so be it. While I will support impeachment if/when it comes because I think it sends the right message to future generations, it most certainly isnt the most politically advantageous route.
Impeaching Trump makes him a martyr which will energize his base on top of allowing the GOP to put up a less horrible candidate in 2020. I think it's much safer politically to use the investigations to trounce him in the election and shut down the cultists that way. Trump barely squeezed by in 2016. Pretty much all those blue dog and union Dems he got in 2016 are going to tell him to go fuck himself, while the investigations will drive independents and young people to the left. A historic loss would be a fine consolation prize if he isnt impeached, if that's where we are heading.
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I'm still assuming he'll end up dying of a heart attack or stroke from all the stress and anxiety from various investigations and his family being thrown in prison. Not to mention the horrible diet and being 70+. And it will likely end up being one of the biggest conspiracy theories of all time.
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On December 15 2018 08:44 iamthedave wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2018 08:27 On_Slaught wrote:On December 15 2018 08:17 Gorsameth wrote:On December 15 2018 08:12 On_Slaught wrote:On December 15 2018 06:56 Plansix wrote:
Trump could make it to 2020 easily. No amount of investigations, drama or criminal activity is going to change that 18 Republican votes to convict him in the Senate. Or to put it differently, he just need 34 Republican Senators to vote against conviction. The politics of impeachment will need to change a lot between now and 2020. I disagree. Republicans in Congress see Trump as a means to an end. As soon as he becomes more trouble then he's worth they'll be the first one to cast him aside. They do not want to be "Trumps party" for any number of reasons (losing 40 house seats is somehwere on that list). Things are going to get worse as the investigations build up and Trump inevitably becomes more unhinged. You are already seeing the occasional article about people in the GOP distancing themselves from Trump in a way they wouldnt have a year ago. That will only become more pronounced as time goes on. Mueller gives them as much cover as it does the Dems. Also, the more we learn the more likely it becomes that Mueller has significant, tangible evidence of multiple criminal acts by the President and his cronies/family. He has massive pool of cooperating witnesses and troves of evidence, including emails and tapes. People who know Mueller have said he would never have allowed the investigation to go on for long if he didn't have something substantial. While it may end up being that Trump is removed by the Mueller report in the form of the 2020 election as opposed to impeachment (largely depends on how much more time Mueller needs), at this point I think the only way Trump avoids direct evidence of criminal activity coming to light is if he is innocent. Tho I dont there is a sane person alive who would wager their reputation or livelihood on that infinitesimal possibility. None of that matters to the Republican base that elected him, they are not a segment of the party the GOP can afford to piss off by dumping Trump. You know he will attack them like a mad dog on if it happens and it would set up their own base against them. But if they are losing votes because of Trump anyways then what's the point? IMO, Trump is by far the biggest existential threat to the GOP right now and party leadership knows it. The last election showed how young people were driven away from the GOP enmasse and they did significantly worse with women. They need a way off the train and Mueller gives it, tho they will have to do it strategically to minimize the damage from his cult. I dont have much respect for Republican Congressmen, but I think that not even they could do nothing if Muellers report showed significant and indisputible evidence of criminal activity and/or collusion. Maybe I'm being naive, who knows. Good news is we'll find out the answer sooner or later. The Republicans have had dozens of chances to turn on Trump. They have defended him tooth and nail, refused to budge, claimed the blue sky is black, the grass is red, left is right, whatever Trump has said the GOP has backed to the hilt. Multiple supposedly respectable senators going on TV to back up his relentless bullshit. They are ALL IN on Trump. He is being lionised as one of the greatest Republican Presidents of all time by multiple Conservative sources, and every single Trump skeptic got hammered in the recent elections. There is no GOP without Trump right now. He is them. On the simple, straightforward optics of it, why would the Republicans want to have two impeached Presidents under their wing? It'll embolden the Democrats, they'll get savaged by their own voters, where's the upside? There isn't one. It's fantasy to believe the GOP is going to do anything but shield and protect Trump at every turn. They've run wall-to-wall hit pieces on the FBI for the best part of a year now because it has the nerve, the very audacity, to investigate Trump for things current senators called him out for. The writing on the wall is very clear on this one.
wait what is that about two impeached presidents. who's the first.
****
only way trump is removed is 1) actual, meaningful collusion,
2) he quits or or has a health scare. if he decides not to run again needs to be by late summer 2019, I'd say.
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On December 15 2018 10:57 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2018 08:44 iamthedave wrote:On December 15 2018 08:27 On_Slaught wrote:On December 15 2018 08:17 Gorsameth wrote:On December 15 2018 08:12 On_Slaught wrote:On December 15 2018 06:56 Plansix wrote:
Trump could make it to 2020 easily. No amount of investigations, drama or criminal activity is going to change that 18 Republican votes to convict him in the Senate. Or to put it differently, he just need 34 Republican Senators to vote against conviction. The politics of impeachment will need to change a lot between now and 2020. I disagree. Republicans in Congress see Trump as a means to an end. As soon as he becomes more trouble then he's worth they'll be the first one to cast him aside. They do not want to be "Trumps party" for any number of reasons (losing 40 house seats is somehwere on that list). Things are going to get worse as the investigations build up and Trump inevitably becomes more unhinged. You are already seeing the occasional article about people in the GOP distancing themselves from Trump in a way they wouldnt have a year ago. That will only become more pronounced as time goes on. Mueller gives them as much cover as it does the Dems. Also, the more we learn the more likely it becomes that Mueller has significant, tangible evidence of multiple criminal acts by the President and his cronies/family. He has massive pool of cooperating witnesses and troves of evidence, including emails and tapes. People who know Mueller have said he would never have allowed the investigation to go on for long if he didn't have something substantial. While it may end up being that Trump is removed by the Mueller report in the form of the 2020 election as opposed to impeachment (largely depends on how much more time Mueller needs), at this point I think the only way Trump avoids direct evidence of criminal activity coming to light is if he is innocent. Tho I dont there is a sane person alive who would wager their reputation or livelihood on that infinitesimal possibility. None of that matters to the Republican base that elected him, they are not a segment of the party the GOP can afford to piss off by dumping Trump. You know he will attack them like a mad dog on if it happens and it would set up their own base against them. But if they are losing votes because of Trump anyways then what's the point? IMO, Trump is by far the biggest existential threat to the GOP right now and party leadership knows it. The last election showed how young people were driven away from the GOP enmasse and they did significantly worse with women. They need a way off the train and Mueller gives it, tho they will have to do it strategically to minimize the damage from his cult. I dont have much respect for Republican Congressmen, but I think that not even they could do nothing if Muellers report showed significant and indisputible evidence of criminal activity and/or collusion. Maybe I'm being naive, who knows. Good news is we'll find out the answer sooner or later. The Republicans have had dozens of chances to turn on Trump. They have defended him tooth and nail, refused to budge, claimed the blue sky is black, the grass is red, left is right, whatever Trump has said the GOP has backed to the hilt. Multiple supposedly respectable senators going on TV to back up his relentless bullshit. They are ALL IN on Trump. He is being lionised as one of the greatest Republican Presidents of all time by multiple Conservative sources, and every single Trump skeptic got hammered in the recent elections. There is no GOP without Trump right now. He is them. On the simple, straightforward optics of it, why would the Republicans want to have two impeached Presidents under their wing? It'll embolden the Democrats, they'll get savaged by their own voters, where's the upside? There isn't one. It's fantasy to believe the GOP is going to do anything but shield and protect Trump at every turn. They've run wall-to-wall hit pieces on the FBI for the best part of a year now because it has the nerve, the very audacity, to investigate Trump for things current senators called him out for. The writing on the wall is very clear on this one. wait what is that about two impeached presidents. who's the first. **** only way trump is removed is 1) actual, meaningful collusion, 2) he quits or or has a health scare. if he decides not to run again needs to be by late summer 2019, I'd say.
Nixon.
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in context that doesnt really work but I guess he wasn't being literal.
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On December 15 2018 12:26 Introvert wrote:
in context that doesnt really work but I guess he wasn't being literal.
I'll admit, when I first read it I was confused too. Nixon was the only thing that made sense to me.
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On December 15 2018 10:57 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2018 08:44 iamthedave wrote:On December 15 2018 08:27 On_Slaught wrote:On December 15 2018 08:17 Gorsameth wrote:On December 15 2018 08:12 On_Slaught wrote:On December 15 2018 06:56 Plansix wrote:
Trump could make it to 2020 easily. No amount of investigations, drama or criminal activity is going to change that 18 Republican votes to convict him in the Senate. Or to put it differently, he just need 34 Republican Senators to vote against conviction. The politics of impeachment will need to change a lot between now and 2020. I disagree. Republicans in Congress see Trump as a means to an end. As soon as he becomes more trouble then he's worth they'll be the first one to cast him aside. They do not want to be "Trumps party" for any number of reasons (losing 40 house seats is somehwere on that list). Things are going to get worse as the investigations build up and Trump inevitably becomes more unhinged. You are already seeing the occasional article about people in the GOP distancing themselves from Trump in a way they wouldnt have a year ago. That will only become more pronounced as time goes on. Mueller gives them as much cover as it does the Dems. Also, the more we learn the more likely it becomes that Mueller has significant, tangible evidence of multiple criminal acts by the President and his cronies/family. He has massive pool of cooperating witnesses and troves of evidence, including emails and tapes. People who know Mueller have said he would never have allowed the investigation to go on for long if he didn't have something substantial. While it may end up being that Trump is removed by the Mueller report in the form of the 2020 election as opposed to impeachment (largely depends on how much more time Mueller needs), at this point I think the only way Trump avoids direct evidence of criminal activity coming to light is if he is innocent. Tho I dont there is a sane person alive who would wager their reputation or livelihood on that infinitesimal possibility. None of that matters to the Republican base that elected him, they are not a segment of the party the GOP can afford to piss off by dumping Trump. You know he will attack them like a mad dog on if it happens and it would set up their own base against them. But if they are losing votes because of Trump anyways then what's the point? IMO, Trump is by far the biggest existential threat to the GOP right now and party leadership knows it. The last election showed how young people were driven away from the GOP enmasse and they did significantly worse with women. They need a way off the train and Mueller gives it, tho they will have to do it strategically to minimize the damage from his cult. I dont have much respect for Republican Congressmen, but I think that not even they could do nothing if Muellers report showed significant and indisputible evidence of criminal activity and/or collusion. Maybe I'm being naive, who knows. Good news is we'll find out the answer sooner or later. The Republicans have had dozens of chances to turn on Trump. They have defended him tooth and nail, refused to budge, claimed the blue sky is black, the grass is red, left is right, whatever Trump has said the GOP has backed to the hilt. Multiple supposedly respectable senators going on TV to back up his relentless bullshit. They are ALL IN on Trump. He is being lionised as one of the greatest Republican Presidents of all time by multiple Conservative sources, and every single Trump skeptic got hammered in the recent elections. There is no GOP without Trump right now. He is them. On the simple, straightforward optics of it, why would the Republicans want to have two impeached Presidents under their wing? It'll embolden the Democrats, they'll get savaged by their own voters, where's the upside? There isn't one. It's fantasy to believe the GOP is going to do anything but shield and protect Trump at every turn. They've run wall-to-wall hit pieces on the FBI for the best part of a year now because it has the nerve, the very audacity, to investigate Trump for things current senators called him out for. The writing on the wall is very clear on this one. wait what is that about two impeached presidents. who's the first. **** only way trump is removed is 1) actual, meaningful collusion, 2) he quits or or has a health scare. if he decides not to run again needs to be by late summer 2019, I'd say.
Pretty sure the numerous other felonies and crimes he was involved with during and after winning could do it.
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Other avenues:
(1) Cohen campaign finance charges are pre-swearing crimes and the OLC memos saying Presidents are above the law are bogus and certainly don't apply to pre-swearing in crimes [Jon Edwards got a jury verdict on far weaker facts]
(2) Trump/Jared/Ivankas lavish spending of federal dollars at Trump branded properties [Dem oversight will be all over this]
(3) Saudi lavish spending at Trump branded properties combined with obvious shell games played at the inauguration and other events [Dem oversight will be all over this]
We know all the details of (1) and Donald could be indicted at any time provided the "Presidents are above the law" rule doesn't exist. (2) and (3) are simmering issues that are going to be far more overbearing in two months after some oversight. Just wait. You will be hearing a lot more about those.
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On December 15 2018 10:57 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On December 15 2018 08:44 iamthedave wrote:On December 15 2018 08:27 On_Slaught wrote:On December 15 2018 08:17 Gorsameth wrote:On December 15 2018 08:12 On_Slaught wrote:On December 15 2018 06:56 Plansix wrote:
Trump could make it to 2020 easily. No amount of investigations, drama or criminal activity is going to change that 18 Republican votes to convict him in the Senate. Or to put it differently, he just need 34 Republican Senators to vote against conviction. The politics of impeachment will need to change a lot between now and 2020. I disagree. Republicans in Congress see Trump as a means to an end. As soon as he becomes more trouble then he's worth they'll be the first one to cast him aside. They do not want to be "Trumps party" for any number of reasons (losing 40 house seats is somehwere on that list). Things are going to get worse as the investigations build up and Trump inevitably becomes more unhinged. You are already seeing the occasional article about people in the GOP distancing themselves from Trump in a way they wouldnt have a year ago. That will only become more pronounced as time goes on. Mueller gives them as much cover as it does the Dems. Also, the more we learn the more likely it becomes that Mueller has significant, tangible evidence of multiple criminal acts by the President and his cronies/family. He has massive pool of cooperating witnesses and troves of evidence, including emails and tapes. People who know Mueller have said he would never have allowed the investigation to go on for long if he didn't have something substantial. While it may end up being that Trump is removed by the Mueller report in the form of the 2020 election as opposed to impeachment (largely depends on how much more time Mueller needs), at this point I think the only way Trump avoids direct evidence of criminal activity coming to light is if he is innocent. Tho I dont there is a sane person alive who would wager their reputation or livelihood on that infinitesimal possibility. None of that matters to the Republican base that elected him, they are not a segment of the party the GOP can afford to piss off by dumping Trump. You know he will attack them like a mad dog on if it happens and it would set up their own base against them. But if they are losing votes because of Trump anyways then what's the point? IMO, Trump is by far the biggest existential threat to the GOP right now and party leadership knows it. The last election showed how young people were driven away from the GOP enmasse and they did significantly worse with women. They need a way off the train and Mueller gives it, tho they will have to do it strategically to minimize the damage from his cult. I dont have much respect for Republican Congressmen, but I think that not even they could do nothing if Muellers report showed significant and indisputible evidence of criminal activity and/or collusion. Maybe I'm being naive, who knows. Good news is we'll find out the answer sooner or later. The Republicans have had dozens of chances to turn on Trump. They have defended him tooth and nail, refused to budge, claimed the blue sky is black, the grass is red, left is right, whatever Trump has said the GOP has backed to the hilt. Multiple supposedly respectable senators going on TV to back up his relentless bullshit. They are ALL IN on Trump. He is being lionised as one of the greatest Republican Presidents of all time by multiple Conservative sources, and every single Trump skeptic got hammered in the recent elections. There is no GOP without Trump right now. He is them. On the simple, straightforward optics of it, why would the Republicans want to have two impeached Presidents under their wing? It'll embolden the Democrats, they'll get savaged by their own voters, where's the upside? There isn't one. It's fantasy to believe the GOP is going to do anything but shield and protect Trump at every turn. They've run wall-to-wall hit pieces on the FBI for the best part of a year now because it has the nerve, the very audacity, to investigate Trump for things current senators called him out for. The writing on the wall is very clear on this one. wait what is that about two impeached presidents. who's the first. **** only way trump is removed is 1) actual, meaningful collusion, 2) he quits or or has a health scare. if he decides not to run again needs to be by late summer 2019, I'd say.
I did mean Nixon. Partial mistake since now that I think about it he wasn't impeached. but I meant more in terms of damage it'd do to the party.
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Meh, the difference between impeached and resigned because he was going to be impeached is a technicality for the history books.
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EPT
