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On November 07 2018 13:04 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The blue wave was more of a whimper than a bang. The average seat loss for a midterm when the president is <50% approval is 37, and 538 has Democrats right on track for that with +35. Combined with losing more than expected in the Senate it's like a C-
Every time I see a post like this I realize how little people pay attention to the mechanics of the midterms. Flipping the house is a huge feat for any party. Blue wave =/= absolutely victory over bother chambers.
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I'm still not on board with impeachment because I'm pretty sure that not even audio or video of some of Trump's private meetings with Putin leaking where Trump is thanking Putin for his help and discussing crimes committed in detail will convince GOP senators to vote to impeach.
I'm totally on board with dems in the house issuing subpoenas to all of those people the GOP house let get away with psuedo-claiming executive privilege or just asked a couple of perfunctory questions and called it good.
On November 07 2018 13:04 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The blue wave was more of a whimper than a bang. The average seat loss for a midterm when the president is <50% approval is 37, and 538 has Democrats right on track for that with +35. Combined with losing more than expected in the Senate it's like a C-
That's largely due to gerrymandering and other republican structural advantages - dems are currently predicted to be up nine points nationally in house votes.
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On November 07 2018 13:08 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:04 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The blue wave was more of a whimper than a bang. The average seat loss for a midterm when the president is <50% approval is 37, and 538 has Democrats right on track for that with +35. Combined with losing more than expected in the Senate it's like a C- Every time I see a post like this I realize how little people pay attention to the mechanics of the midterms. Flipping the house is a huge feat for any party. Blue wave =/= absolutely victory over bother chambers.
It's not as good as could have been expected in these circumstances and we should not shy away from saying that. The GOP is uniquely bad and extreme at this moment. We should expect more.
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On November 07 2018 13:11 Kyadytim wrote:I'm still not on board with impeachment because I'm pretty sure that not even audio or video of some of Trump's private meetings with Putin leaking where Trump is thanking Putin for his help and discussing crimes committed in detail will convince GOP senators to vote to impeach. I'm totally on board with dems in the house issuing subpoenas to all of those people the GOP house let get away with psuedo-claiming executive privilege or just asked a couple of perfunctory questions and called it good. Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:04 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The blue wave was more of a whimper than a bang. The average seat loss for a midterm when the president is <50% approval is 37, and 538 has Democrats right on track for that with +35. Combined with losing more than expected in the Senate it's like a C- That's largely due to gerrymandering and other republican structural advantages - dems are currently predicted to be up nine points nationally in house votes.
Trump's tax returns should be item number 1.
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On November 07 2018 13:07 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:02 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 12:56 BisuDagger wrote:On November 07 2018 12:51 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 12:39 BisuDagger wrote:On November 07 2018 12:19 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 12:07 ticklishmusic wrote:
holy shit, kansas was unexpected. Fuck the senate, governors seats are huge. Sadly Florida isn’t going well, but it’s hard when 1.4 million black men can’t vote. And the state is pretty god damn racist. But next time around it will be a different story. Woah dude, that is hugely out of line. Florida is not a racist state. How can you generalize a group of people like that? Maybe if Gillum didn't threaten to run our economy into a deficit he would have gotten more votes. To make this a race issue is just absurd. DeSantis is a very unexciting candidate, but at least he didn't threaten to tax the hell out of our state. You are right, that was wrong of me. Florida is not racist. But DeSantis sure does associate with a lot of overt racists, per the extensive reporting by numerous news outlets and his own speaking record. https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/2018/10/25/racists-think-hes-racist-gillum-white-supremacists-support-desantis/This doesn’t seem to bother the majority of Florida voters. So I feel safe in saying that the potential that DeSantis is a huge racist doesn’t bother a lot of Florida voters. Pro minority amendments are doing well in the state. Florida citizens care about minorities when it comes to issues, but for governor the democrats elected someone say too far left. It also doesn't help that Gillum is under FBI investigation. And yet they couldn’t seal the deal and not vote for the guy who is super anti immingant and very likely hangs out with white nationalists. 100% agree. This race sucks for Floridians. I voted for Putnam in the primary. Now I have to choose between moldy bread and a rusty nail (you decide who is what).
Moldy bread = penicillin, rusty nail = tetanus.
I understand what you meant though, just thought this was a funny failed analogy.
Trump's tax returns should be item number 1.
In all honesty, what does it even matter?
Republicans, and more importantly trump supporters, will just applaud the fact that he "found" (of course he didn't, his accountants did) loopholes and stick it to the government.
Like, the tax returns will change nothing. At this point i doubt that the average trump supporter would give a shit even if it came out that trump didn't pay any taxes at all whatsoever.
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On November 07 2018 13:07 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:02 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 12:56 BisuDagger wrote:On November 07 2018 12:51 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 12:39 BisuDagger wrote:On November 07 2018 12:19 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 12:07 ticklishmusic wrote:
holy shit, kansas was unexpected. Fuck the senate, governors seats are huge. Sadly Florida isn’t going well, but it’s hard when 1.4 million black men can’t vote. And the state is pretty god damn racist. But next time around it will be a different story. Woah dude, that is hugely out of line. Florida is not a racist state. How can you generalize a group of people like that? Maybe if Gillum didn't threaten to run our economy into a deficit he would have gotten more votes. To make this a race issue is just absurd. DeSantis is a very unexciting candidate, but at least he didn't threaten to tax the hell out of our state. You are right, that was wrong of me. Florida is not racist. But DeSantis sure does associate with a lot of overt racists, per the extensive reporting by numerous news outlets and his own speaking record. https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/2018/10/25/racists-think-hes-racist-gillum-white-supremacists-support-desantis/This doesn’t seem to bother the majority of Florida voters. So I feel safe in saying that the potential that DeSantis is a huge racist doesn’t bother a lot of Florida voters. Pro minority amendments are doing well in the state. Florida citizens care about minorities when it comes to issues, but for governor the democrats elected someone say too far left. It also doesn't help that Gillum is under FBI investigation. And yet they couldn’t seal the deal and not vote for the guy who is super anti immingant and very likely hangs out with white nationalists. 100% agree. This race sucks for Floridians. I voted for Putnam in the primary. Now I have to choose between moldy bread and a rusty nail (you decide who is what).
I understand the plight. But the long term implications of continuing to give guys like DeSantis control over law enforcement and the judiciary isn’t going to help the rising problem with racism in this country. I get that getting taxed more isn’t fun(I live in MA). But a couple bad budgets isn’t worth the potential harm DeSantis could cause, for me at least. He could go full Georgia next election.
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On November 07 2018 13:12 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:08 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 13:04 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The blue wave was more of a whimper than a bang. The average seat loss for a midterm when the president is <50% approval is 37, and 538 has Democrats right on track for that with +35. Combined with losing more than expected in the Senate it's like a C- Every time I see a post like this I realize how little people pay attention to the mechanics of the midterms. Flipping the house is a huge feat for any party. Blue wave =/= absolutely victory over bother chambers. It's not as good as could have been expected in these circumstances and we should not shy away from saying that. The GOP is uniquely bad and extreme at this moment. We should expect more.
It is a midterm election, we do this every two years. It took the Republicans a full decade to get control of the Senate. And this year is bad for the senate.
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On November 07 2018 13:15 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:12 Nebuchad wrote:On November 07 2018 13:08 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 13:04 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The blue wave was more of a whimper than a bang. The average seat loss for a midterm when the president is <50% approval is 37, and 538 has Democrats right on track for that with +35. Combined with losing more than expected in the Senate it's like a C- Every time I see a post like this I realize how little people pay attention to the mechanics of the midterms. Flipping the house is a huge feat for any party. Blue wave =/= absolutely victory over bother chambers. It's not as good as could have been expected in these circumstances and we should not shy away from saying that. The GOP is uniquely bad and extreme at this moment. We should expect more. It is a midterm election, we do this every two years. It took the Republicans a full decade to get control of the Senate. And this year is bad for the senate.
I didn't think you'd win the Senate. But this looks like a +25 or something, it could have been a +40. The governor races are pretty bad as well
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On November 07 2018 13:12 On_Slaught wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:11 Kyadytim wrote:I'm still not on board with impeachment because I'm pretty sure that not even audio or video of some of Trump's private meetings with Putin leaking where Trump is thanking Putin for his help and discussing crimes committed in detail will convince GOP senators to vote to impeach. I'm totally on board with dems in the house issuing subpoenas to all of those people the GOP house let get away with psuedo-claiming executive privilege or just asked a couple of perfunctory questions and called it good. On November 07 2018 13:04 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The blue wave was more of a whimper than a bang. The average seat loss for a midterm when the president is <50% approval is 37, and 538 has Democrats right on track for that with +35. Combined with losing more than expected in the Senate it's like a C- That's largely due to gerrymandering and other republican structural advantages - dems are currently predicted to be up nine points nationally in house votes. Trump's tax returns should be item number 1.
I'd also like to see some digging into what's happening with payments from foreign governments to Trump's properties, especially his DC hotel.
On November 07 2018 13:16 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:15 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 13:12 Nebuchad wrote:On November 07 2018 13:08 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 13:04 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The blue wave was more of a whimper than a bang. The average seat loss for a midterm when the president is <50% approval is 37, and 538 has Democrats right on track for that with +35. Combined with losing more than expected in the Senate it's like a C- Every time I see a post like this I realize how little people pay attention to the mechanics of the midterms. Flipping the house is a huge feat for any party. Blue wave =/= absolutely victory over bother chambers. It's not as good as could have been expected in these circumstances and we should not shy away from saying that. The GOP is uniquely bad and extreme at this moment. We should expect more. It is a midterm election, we do this every two years. It took the Republicans a full decade to get control of the Senate. And this year is bad for the senate. I didn't think you'd win the Senate. But this looks like a +25 or something, it could have been a +40. The governor races are pretty bad as well
I'm going to reiterate here that the Democrat party is expected to receive something like 55% of the vote to the Republican party's 45% in House races. That this translates to being up by around 5% of the total seats instead of around 10% of the total seats is a result of the gerrymandering opportunities Republicans had after 2010 and the inherent representation advantages the US federal government gives to low population states and inherent disadvantages delivered to high population states.
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On November 07 2018 13:04 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:01 Introvert wrote:
Gillum using the race card so much was so off putting, nah, disgusting, very happy.
This is nothing like 2010, just history repeating itself (House flipping). But excellent night in the Senate. The GOP needs to handle its suburban problem, but they seem acutely aware of that, and I hope Trump is as well. He said something like that recently.
Also lots of lefties ran as moderates and won, fun to see if they follow their heart or their brain when House Democrats start raining subpoenas and left wing legislation down on everyone.
btw, the House flip doesnt have any sort of precedent for presidential elections. The record is all over the place. I'm sure trump will be on top of that nuance right away.
I am very curious. I think he might when thr Dems go crazy and could try to be the sane one. wont be hard, If he wants to do it.
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On November 07 2018 13:04 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The blue wave was more of a whimper than a bang. The average seat loss for a midterm when the president is <50% approval is 37, and 538 has Democrats right on track for that with +35. Combined with losing more than expected in the Senate it's like a C-
All that matters is the takeover of the House.
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On November 07 2018 13:13 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:07 BisuDagger wrote:On November 07 2018 13:02 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 12:56 BisuDagger wrote:On November 07 2018 12:51 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 12:39 BisuDagger wrote:On November 07 2018 12:19 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 12:07 ticklishmusic wrote:
holy shit, kansas was unexpected. Fuck the senate, governors seats are huge. Sadly Florida isn’t going well, but it’s hard when 1.4 million black men can’t vote. And the state is pretty god damn racist. But next time around it will be a different story. Woah dude, that is hugely out of line. Florida is not a racist state. How can you generalize a group of people like that? Maybe if Gillum didn't threaten to run our economy into a deficit he would have gotten more votes. To make this a race issue is just absurd. DeSantis is a very unexciting candidate, but at least he didn't threaten to tax the hell out of our state. You are right, that was wrong of me. Florida is not racist. But DeSantis sure does associate with a lot of overt racists, per the extensive reporting by numerous news outlets and his own speaking record. https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/2018/10/25/racists-think-hes-racist-gillum-white-supremacists-support-desantis/This doesn’t seem to bother the majority of Florida voters. So I feel safe in saying that the potential that DeSantis is a huge racist doesn’t bother a lot of Florida voters. Pro minority amendments are doing well in the state. Florida citizens care about minorities when it comes to issues, but for governor the democrats elected someone say too far left. It also doesn't help that Gillum is under FBI investigation. And yet they couldn’t seal the deal and not vote for the guy who is super anti immingant and very likely hangs out with white nationalists. 100% agree. This race sucks for Floridians. I voted for Putnam in the primary. Now I have to choose between moldy bread and a rusty nail (you decide who is what). Moldy bread = penicillin, rusty nail = tetanus. I understand what you meant though, just thought this was a funny failed analogy. In all honesty, what does it even matter? Republicans, and more importantly trump supporters, will just applaud the fact that he "found" (of course he didn't, his accountants did) loopholes and stick it to the government. Like, the tax returns will change nothing. At this point i doubt that the average trump supporter would give a shit even if it came out that trump didn't pay any taxes at all whatsoever.
Technically he didn't find loopholes, he committed fraud, but you're certainly right that it won't change the minds of his supporters. It's to gin up Democratic turnout. Same reason the Republicans went full blown investigation mode from 2012 - 2016.
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On November 07 2018 13:16 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:15 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 13:12 Nebuchad wrote:On November 07 2018 13:08 Plansix wrote:On November 07 2018 13:04 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The blue wave was more of a whimper than a bang. The average seat loss for a midterm when the president is <50% approval is 37, and 538 has Democrats right on track for that with +35. Combined with losing more than expected in the Senate it's like a C- Every time I see a post like this I realize how little people pay attention to the mechanics of the midterms. Flipping the house is a huge feat for any party. Blue wave =/= absolutely victory over bother chambers. It's not as good as could have been expected in these circumstances and we should not shy away from saying that. The GOP is uniquely bad and extreme at this moment. We should expect more. It is a midterm election, we do this every two years. It took the Republicans a full decade to get control of the Senate. And this year is bad for the senate. I didn't think you'd win the Senate. But this looks like a +25 or something, it could have been a +40. The governor races are pretty bad as well
There was no one hoping for +40. That would mean taking the Senate too. The Govenors races are a mixed bag, but that is voter suppression in action for more than a few races.
It took the GOP decades to get to the zenith they are right now. It started by taking the House in 1994.
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On November 07 2018 13:19 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2018 13:04 Doodsmack wrote:On November 07 2018 13:01 Introvert wrote:
Gillum using the race card so much was so off putting, nah, disgusting, very happy.
This is nothing like 2010, just history repeating itself (House flipping). But excellent night in the Senate. The GOP needs to handle its suburban problem, but they seem acutely aware of that, and I hope Trump is as well. He said something like that recently.
Also lots of lefties ran as moderates and won, fun to see if they follow their heart or their brain when House Democrats start raining subpoenas and left wing legislation down on everyone.
btw, the House flip doesnt have any sort of precedent for presidential elections. The record is all over the place. I'm sure trump will be on top of that nuance right away. I am very curious. I think he might when thr Dems go crazy and could try to be the sane one. wont be hard, If he wants to do it.
You have learned absolutely nothing if you think Trump is capable of change.
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On November 07 2018 13:16 Kyadytim wrote:
I'm going to reiterate here that the Democrat party is expected to receive something like 55% of the vote to the Republican party's 45% in House races. That this translates to being up by around 5% of the total seats instead of around 10% of the total seats is a result of the gerrymandering opportunities Republicans had after 2010 and the inherent representation advantages the US federal government gives to low population states and inherent disadvantages delivered to high population states.
I already mentioned that. It sucks that the game is rigged, but we knew that going in, didn't we. And I still think you should have expected more. Although if Walker also loses on top of Kobach, the governor races are not that bad.
Also with the vote on felons in Florida, this might be the last close Florida election race.
On November 07 2018 13:22 Plansix wrote:
There was no one hoping for +40.
Come on now...
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It's actually really scary that the House of Representatives, the chamber aimed to be representative of the people, shows something like +8% of the votes in favor of Democrats while their house majority will be something around +3-4%. Doesn't seem very... representative. Honestly, Idk why geography should play into House elections and have such a large impact. Really, that should be left to the Senate.
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It would be nice to have the moon, but we knew it was likely out of reach.
And have no fear, the Democrats will form a circular firing squad after tonight. As tradition demands.
Edit: Ok, no person who follows politics and understands how elections work expected +40 seats.
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Tried to find numbers, but only read "huge turnout" everywhere - are there actual numbers as to how many people voted? Across all states, what's the percentage of people that went to the ballot today?
I'd be very interested to know.
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Rofl Iowa is holding really well
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EPT
