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Northern Ireland27459 Posts
On March 10 2026 00:58 JimmyJRaynor wrote:This is the 3rd time Israel/Netanyahu has fucked over the USA/Trump. Recall the "they don't know what the fuck they are doing" speech by Trump in late June 2025. IMO, the USA's "help" to Israel started becoming pathological after JFK was assassinated. the 1967 capture of Jerusalem was a bit inflection point. The more Israel fucks over Trump the more evident it is that the Deep State is calling the shots on this war and not America's Assistant Regional Manager Donald Trump. And, of course, the more Israel does this crap the more incompetent Trump appears to be. He is supposed to be this big tough man, and yet he can't keep his 144 lb. little brother in line.
What Deep State? Why would such an entity if it existed even allow half the crap we see?
All you’re seeing is Netanyahu running rings around Trump, as Putin did before him. Because he’s not actually some brilliant negotiator or statesman, indeed quite the opposite.
You’re somehow coming to conclusions most of the rest of the thread got to about 9 years ago, and then going ‘oh it must be the Deep State’ instead of Trump being a buffoon who other more competent strongmen can just play like a fiddle.
Oh turns out unconditionally backing Israel on everything somewhat emboldened them to push the boat out, who could have predicted this?
The ‘Deep State’ as it were have been mostly fuming as this administration does asinine thing after asinine thing lmao
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On March 10 2026 01:14 Billyboy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 00:58 JimmyJRaynor wrote:This is the 3rd time Israel/Netanyahu has fucked over the USA/Trump. Recall the "they don't know what the fuck they are doing" speech by Trump in late June 2025. IMO, the USA's "help" to Israel started becoming pathological after JFK was assassinated. the 1967 capture of Jerusalem was a bit inflection point. The more Israel fucks over Trump the more evident it is that the Deep State is calling the shots on this war and not America's Assistant Regional Manager Donald Trump. And, of course, the more Israel does this crap the more incompetent Trump appears to be. He is supposed to be this big tough man, and yet he can't keep his 144 lb. little brother in line. Jankisa, any time you agree with Jimmy just remember this is the kind of stuff he thinks. It was just a couple days ago he floated that Iran was stopping their attacks because of an interceptor shortage. Which was dumb on so many levels because of course they didn’t stop, believing Iran is dumber than believing Trump and there is no grand conspiracy. Ali Khamenei very well may have been OK with dying. But that he gave his location of a meeting with a bunch of high ups to all be blown up? Really? Like wouldn’t he do it solo? Please don’t give Jimmy any oxygen, his conspiracy shit is straight from the dumbest “influencers” and targets only those who have no ability to logistically reason. This guy loves Candace Owens and Dice FFS.
I didn't agree that he "gave" them his location, please feel free to read what I wrote again.
The meeting took place in the most obvious place imaginable, the people around Khamenei were also people who would "look forward" to martyrdom, they obviously didn't pick up the phone and called USS Abraham Lincoln and said send in the tomahawks, but they also didn't really do anything, considering the level of danger in order to hide or try to save themselves.
Considering that the biggest war aim that US/Israel have to brag about is this, it's pretty normal to bring into question how successful this operation is since this objective was, well, objectively a "gimmie".
Obviously, just if I agree with one, specific assessment of what happened about one thing that doesn't mean I subscribe to his overall view of the world or the shit he's posting, I mean, I opened with "the world might be ending"...
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On March 10 2026 01:14 Billyboy wrote:
It was just a couple days ago he floated that Iran was stopping their attacks because of an interceptor shortage.
Day 1 (Feb 28): Iran launched approximately 294 drones alongside 350 ballistic missiles in the initial retaliatory strike.
Day 2 (March 1): The barrage intensified to 541 drones, the highest single-day drone count recorded in the first week.
Last 24 Hours (March 9): Approximately 135 to 150 drones were launched across the region
By March 9, the IDF reported that approximately 75% of Iran's ballistic missile launchers had been destroyed. ( this could be a lie , but i bet the IDF can back up their claims)
I'd say Iran is running out of offense and looking to form a narrative that makes them appear to be in control.
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United States44353 Posts
On March 10 2026 00:37 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2026 23:51 LightSpectra wrote:On March 09 2026 10:37 baal wrote:On March 08 2026 22:35 LightSpectra wrote:
Afghanistan is a country of est. 40 million and the NATO mission committed no more than 18,000 troops at a time to holding it. The total U. S. armed forces plus reserves is over 2,000,000 people, so the security force in Afghanistan is about 0.009% of what you're calling "the full force of the US military". there werent 40 million taliban combatants and the RoE would be very differnt, the US military can't just carpet bomb Los Angeles to kill armed citizens, the more the military escalates aggression the more internal turnmoil within it ranks happen, soldiers aren't going to blow up their own families, thats how civil war factions are formed. What Afghanistan proved is that no matter how many planes and tanks you have to control a population you need boots on the ground and people to surrender, unless you are willing to obliterate them which isn't an option in a civil war. What Afghanistan proved is that 18,000 troops being supplied from the other hemisphere can't hold a mountainous country of 40 million. It in no way proves that no government on Earth is capable of winning a civil war against insurgents using guerilla tactics, especially the richest government with the most well-funded military in human history. Even 18,000 troops were holding it fine, they just left.
Trump negotiated an agreement in which the Taliban agreed not to kill American troops if the American troops agreed not to help the ANA anymore. Then the Taliban defeated the ANA. I don't know if you can call that "holding it fine".
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On March 10 2026 01:14 Billyboy wrote:
Jankisa, any time you agree with Jimmy just remember this is the kind of stuff he thinks. It was just a couple days ago he floated that Iran was stopping their attacks because of an interceptor shortage. Which was dumb on so many levels because of course they didn’t stop, believing Iran is dumber than believing Trump and there is no grand conspiracy.
NO, i stated the GCC countries were LEAKING that they had an interceptor shortage. Whether they actually do or do not has nothing to do with the PR spin.
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On March 10 2026 01:21 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 00:58 JimmyJRaynor wrote:This is the 3rd time Israel/Netanyahu has fucked over the USA/Trump. Recall the "they don't know what the fuck they are doing" speech by Trump in late June 2025. IMO, the USA's "help" to Israel started becoming pathological after JFK was assassinated. the 1967 capture of Jerusalem was a bit inflection point. The more Israel fucks over Trump the more evident it is that the Deep State is calling the shots on this war and not America's Assistant Regional Manager Donald Trump. And, of course, the more Israel does this crap the more incompetent Trump appears to be. He is supposed to be this big tough man, and yet he can't keep his 144 lb. little brother in line. What Deep State? Why would such an entity if it existed even allow half the crap we see?
because they know it doesn't matter. The USA stopped being a republic many decades ago. It has been an empire for a very long time. The USA was definitely not a Republic by the time JFK was assassinated.
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The phrase 'Deep State' was coined by Republicans to explain why everything is still shit even when they control every branch of the government.
It wasn't unnamed malevolent bureaucrats in any government agency that voted to slash a trillion dollars from Medicaid in order to cut taxes for billionaires, Republicans did that in the open.
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On March 10 2026 00:03 Doublemint wrote:getting close to 2€/L for Diesel/Super over here. an increase of ~25% so far... yeah putting a 86 year old up as an amazing trophy and incredible kill is quintessential Trump. as is telling those tankers to just yolo through the Strait. "it's totally safe guys, they only got a couple drones and rockets left. what's the worst that can happen to a vessel filled to the brim with a highly combustible liquid?" he is the Mr. Magoo of politics. Trump Sends Message to Tankers as Oil Prices Spike: ‘Show Some Guts!’@Mediaite Show nested quote +
Kilmeade revealed on Fox & Friends Monday that the president had urged oil transportation companies that use the route to “get to it” as he argued Iranian regime’s capability to attack the ships had been weakened.
He explained that during the call, he’d asked the president how he planned to “get the prices down,” then relayed Trump’s words:
He says, ‘Tell these tankers to get themselves, get to it, we have wiped out most of their launchers.’ Here is exactly what he said: ‘These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there’s nothing to be afraid of. [The Iranians] have no navy, we sunk all their ships.’
He went on to say: ‘Look, there is risk in the region, the region is volatile, their launchers, there’s just about 150 left, that’s just about 20% of totals, they can’t regenerate, they can’t make any more. We are in the region and need to act quickly on all these type of attacks.’
I wonder if Trump is willing to basically insure those tankers when crossing through there? Guarantee to pay for any damages by those Iranian missiles?
Because if he wants them to get going again, that is what it would take.
I seriously wonder, because on one hand, he tends to just bullshit all day, but rarely actually commits to doing stuff if it would be costly.
But on the other hand, it would just be US taxpayer money and not his own, so it would be basically free since he doesn't value that in the slightest.
On March 09 2026 23:51 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2026 10:37 baal wrote:On March 08 2026 22:35 LightSpectra wrote:
Afghanistan is a country of est. 40 million and the NATO mission committed no more than 18,000 troops at a time to holding it. The total U. S. armed forces plus reserves is over 2,000,000 people, so the security force in Afghanistan is about 0.009% of what you're calling "the full force of the US military". there werent 40 million taliban combatants and the RoE would be very differnt, the US military can't just carpet bomb Los Angeles to kill armed citizens, the more the military escalates aggression the more internal turnmoil within it ranks happen, soldiers aren't going to blow up their own families, thats how civil war factions are formed. What Afghanistan proved is that no matter how many planes and tanks you have to control a population you need boots on the ground and people to surrender, unless you are willing to obliterate them which isn't an option in a civil war. What Afghanistan proved is that 18,000 troops being supplied from the other hemisphere can't hold a mountainous country of 40 million. It in no way proves that no government on Earth is capable of winning a civil war against insurgents using guerilla tactics, especially the richest government with the most well-funded military in human history.
The soviets also lost in Afghanistan. And the US lost in Vietnam.
It seems to be very hard to actually hold a country that at least partially doesn't like you against partisan forces that are willing to die for their cause, in a modern age where you need to justify your losses at home and can't just genocide everyone until it is quiet either. The US may be rich in money and materiel, but it is not rich in people it is willing to spend. A low, constant drone of losses in people and money will eventually turn the US public opinion against the occupation, and then it will eventually end. And everyone in Iran knows that, too.
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Regarding tanker insurance in the Strait of Hormuz: I'm just spit-balling here and maybe sailors just have a significantly different mentality than I do, but, "You may risk your life to Iranian drones and mines, but don't worry, your boss will get an insurance payout if you die" is probably not going to inspire me to try and brave the waters.
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On March 10 2026 02:04 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 00:03 Doublemint wrote:getting close to 2€/L for Diesel/Super over here. an increase of ~25% so far... yeah putting a 86 year old up as an amazing trophy and incredible kill is quintessential Trump. as is telling those tankers to just yolo through the Strait. "it's totally safe guys, they only got a couple drones and rockets left. what's the worst that can happen to a vessel filled to the brim with a highly combustible liquid?" he is the Mr. Magoo of politics. Trump Sends Message to Tankers as Oil Prices Spike: ‘Show Some Guts!’@Mediaite
Kilmeade revealed on Fox & Friends Monday that the president had urged oil transportation companies that use the route to “get to it” as he argued Iranian regime’s capability to attack the ships had been weakened.
He explained that during the call, he’d asked the president how he planned to “get the prices down,” then relayed Trump’s words:
He says, ‘Tell these tankers to get themselves, get to it, we have wiped out most of their launchers.’ Here is exactly what he said: ‘These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there’s nothing to be afraid of. [The Iranians] have no navy, we sunk all their ships.’
He went on to say: ‘Look, there is risk in the region, the region is volatile, their launchers, there’s just about 150 left, that’s just about 20% of totals, they can’t regenerate, they can’t make any more. We are in the region and need to act quickly on all these type of attacks.’
I wonder if Trump is willing to basically insure those tankers when crossing through there? Guarantee to pay for any damages by those Iranian missiles? Because if he wants them to get going again, that is what it would take. I seriously wonder, because on one hand, he tends to just bullshit all day, but rarely actually commits to doing stuff if it would be costly. But on the other hand, it would just be US taxpayer money and not his own, so it would be basically free since he doesn't value that in the slightest.
The administration already put the DFC in as insurer of last resort when Lloyd's of London and everyone else left.
Tankers are going through by just turning their transponders off, because Iran has no radars or naval assets left so as long as you don't scream "I AM AN OIL TANKER RIGHT HERE" there's no way for the "regime" to make good on threats that "If you can afford oil at $200 a barrel watch and see what happens." Because they have no targeting capabilities left for any missiles that they would happen to have operational still.
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United States44353 Posts
I don't see why he wouldn't promise to do it. He's great at promising to do things.
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United States44353 Posts
On March 10 2026 02:13 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 02:04 Simberto wrote:On March 10 2026 00:03 Doublemint wrote:getting close to 2€/L for Diesel/Super over here. an increase of ~25% so far... yeah putting a 86 year old up as an amazing trophy and incredible kill is quintessential Trump. as is telling those tankers to just yolo through the Strait. "it's totally safe guys, they only got a couple drones and rockets left. what's the worst that can happen to a vessel filled to the brim with a highly combustible liquid?" he is the Mr. Magoo of politics. Trump Sends Message to Tankers as Oil Prices Spike: ‘Show Some Guts!’@Mediaite
Kilmeade revealed on Fox & Friends Monday that the president had urged oil transportation companies that use the route to “get to it” as he argued Iranian regime’s capability to attack the ships had been weakened.
He explained that during the call, he’d asked the president how he planned to “get the prices down,” then relayed Trump’s words:
He says, ‘Tell these tankers to get themselves, get to it, we have wiped out most of their launchers.’ Here is exactly what he said: ‘These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there’s nothing to be afraid of. [The Iranians] have no navy, we sunk all their ships.’
He went on to say: ‘Look, there is risk in the region, the region is volatile, their launchers, there’s just about 150 left, that’s just about 20% of totals, they can’t regenerate, they can’t make any more. We are in the region and need to act quickly on all these type of attacks.’
I wonder if Trump is willing to basically insure those tankers when crossing through there? Guarantee to pay for any damages by those Iranian missiles? Because if he wants them to get going again, that is what it would take. I seriously wonder, because on one hand, he tends to just bullshit all day, but rarely actually commits to doing stuff if it would be costly. But on the other hand, it would just be US taxpayer money and not his own, so it would be basically free since he doesn't value that in the slightest. The administration already put the DFC in as insurer of last resort when Lloyd's of London and everyone else left. Tankers are going through by just turning their transponders off, because Iran has no radars or naval assets left so as long as you don't scream "I AM AN OIL TANKER RIGHT HERE" there's no way for the "regime" to make good on threats that "If you can afford oil at $200 a barrel watch and see what happens." Because they have no targeting capabilities left for any missiles that they would happen to have operational still.
Radar? You can literally stand on one side and see all the way to the other side. It's a strait.
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On March 10 2026 01:52 LightSpectra wrote:
The phrase 'Deep State' was coined by Republicans to explain why everything is still shit even when they control every branch of the government.
It wasn't unnamed malevolent bureaucrats in any government agency that voted to slash a trillion dollars from Medicaid in order to cut taxes for billionaires, Republicans did that in the open.
Evidence of the US government's decline pre-dates Medicaid.
When JFK turns down stuff like Operation Northwoods, JFK gets killed and its dead obvious LHO didn't do it, and a year later we get the Gulf of Tonkin incident... you're getting some clues the USA is no longer a republic. No one is going to make an official announcement though. its not a Star Wars movie. Although I gotta say... all these "Emergency Powers" Trump claims he needs comes close to an official announcement.
How many "not war" wars has the USA been in since 1945? We have the police action Korean thing in 1950-1953. The Vietnam War. The Gulf War of 1991-1992. Iraq War 2003-2011. By Congress never declaring war some power shifts away from the republican system the constitution intended.
It is supposed to go like this:
(1) Congress declares war
(2) President commands the troops
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On March 10 2026 02:16 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 02:13 oBlade wrote:On March 10 2026 02:04 Simberto wrote:On March 10 2026 00:03 Doublemint wrote:getting close to 2€/L for Diesel/Super over here. an increase of ~25% so far... yeah putting a 86 year old up as an amazing trophy and incredible kill is quintessential Trump. as is telling those tankers to just yolo through the Strait. "it's totally safe guys, they only got a couple drones and rockets left. what's the worst that can happen to a vessel filled to the brim with a highly combustible liquid?" he is the Mr. Magoo of politics. Trump Sends Message to Tankers as Oil Prices Spike: ‘Show Some Guts!’@Mediaite
Kilmeade revealed on Fox & Friends Monday that the president had urged oil transportation companies that use the route to “get to it” as he argued Iranian regime’s capability to attack the ships had been weakened.
He explained that during the call, he’d asked the president how he planned to “get the prices down,” then relayed Trump’s words:
He says, ‘Tell these tankers to get themselves, get to it, we have wiped out most of their launchers.’ Here is exactly what he said: ‘These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there’s nothing to be afraid of. [The Iranians] have no navy, we sunk all their ships.’
He went on to say: ‘Look, there is risk in the region, the region is volatile, their launchers, there’s just about 150 left, that’s just about 20% of totals, they can’t regenerate, they can’t make any more. We are in the region and need to act quickly on all these type of attacks.’
I wonder if Trump is willing to basically insure those tankers when crossing through there? Guarantee to pay for any damages by those Iranian missiles? Because if he wants them to get going again, that is what it would take. I seriously wonder, because on one hand, he tends to just bullshit all day, but rarely actually commits to doing stuff if it would be costly. But on the other hand, it would just be US taxpayer money and not his own, so it would be basically free since he doesn't value that in the slightest. The administration already put the DFC in as insurer of last resort when Lloyd's of London and everyone else left. Tankers are going through by just turning their transponders off, because Iran has no radars or naval assets left so as long as you don't scream "I AM AN OIL TANKER RIGHT HERE" there's no way for the "regime" to make good on threats that "If you can afford oil at $200 a barrel watch and see what happens." Because they have no targeting capabilities left for any missiles that they would happen to have operational still. Radar? You can literally stand on one side and see all the way to the other side. It's a strait.
You cannot launch and give a firing solution to a ballistic or cruise missile with your eyes, regardless of whether you personally can see a certain ship from a beach or not.
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On March 10 2026 01:24 Jankisa wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 01:14 Billyboy wrote:On March 10 2026 00:58 JimmyJRaynor wrote:This is the 3rd time Israel/Netanyahu has fucked over the USA/Trump. Recall the "they don't know what the fuck they are doing" speech by Trump in late June 2025. IMO, the USA's "help" to Israel started becoming pathological after JFK was assassinated. the 1967 capture of Jerusalem was a bit inflection point. The more Israel fucks over Trump the more evident it is that the Deep State is calling the shots on this war and not America's Assistant Regional Manager Donald Trump. And, of course, the more Israel does this crap the more incompetent Trump appears to be. He is supposed to be this big tough man, and yet he can't keep his 144 lb. little brother in line. Jankisa, any time you agree with Jimmy just remember this is the kind of stuff he thinks. It was just a couple days ago he floated that Iran was stopping their attacks because of an interceptor shortage. Which was dumb on so many levels because of course they didn’t stop, believing Iran is dumber than believing Trump and there is no grand conspiracy. Ali Khamenei very well may have been OK with dying. But that he gave his location of a meeting with a bunch of high ups to all be blown up? Really? Like wouldn’t he do it solo? Please don’t give Jimmy any oxygen, his conspiracy shit is straight from the dumbest “influencers” and targets only those who have no ability to logistically reason. This guy loves Candace Owens and Dice FFS. I didn't agree that he "gave" them his location, please feel free to read what I wrote again. The meeting took place in the most obvious place imaginable, the people around Khamenei were also people who would "look forward" to martyrdom, they obviously didn't pick up the phone and called USS Abraham Lincoln and said send in the tomahawks, but they also didn't really do anything, considering the level of danger in order to hide or try to save themselves. Considering that the biggest war aim that US/Israel have to brag about is this, it's pretty normal to bring into question how successful this operation is since this objective was, well, objectively a "gimmie". Obviously, just if I agree with one, specific assessment of what happened about one thing that doesn't mean I subscribe to his overall view of the world or the shit he's posting, I mean, I opened with "the world might be ending"...
I’m not saying you agree with his world view, I’m saying do not encourage him.
I found most people who are in power and say they would be happy to martyr, do not mean it. They do it so others will die for them. I think there is no need for a grand conspiracy when a mix of hubris plus underestimating how batshit crazy Trump is will work.
Too make it thread related most of these people professing the martyrdom strategy are like GH. They mean others not them, their purity comes from their big talk not their non existent action. Then they claim (and maybe believe) that they are too important and their work is so that whole risking or sacrificing their lives is for others.
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United States44353 Posts
On March 10 2026 02:33 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 02:16 KwarK wrote:On March 10 2026 02:13 oBlade wrote:On March 10 2026 02:04 Simberto wrote:On March 10 2026 00:03 Doublemint wrote:getting close to 2€/L for Diesel/Super over here. an increase of ~25% so far... yeah putting a 86 year old up as an amazing trophy and incredible kill is quintessential Trump. as is telling those tankers to just yolo through the Strait. "it's totally safe guys, they only got a couple drones and rockets left. what's the worst that can happen to a vessel filled to the brim with a highly combustible liquid?" he is the Mr. Magoo of politics. Trump Sends Message to Tankers as Oil Prices Spike: ‘Show Some Guts!’@Mediaite
Kilmeade revealed on Fox & Friends Monday that the president had urged oil transportation companies that use the route to “get to it” as he argued Iranian regime’s capability to attack the ships had been weakened.
He explained that during the call, he’d asked the president how he planned to “get the prices down,” then relayed Trump’s words:
He says, ‘Tell these tankers to get themselves, get to it, we have wiped out most of their launchers.’ Here is exactly what he said: ‘These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there’s nothing to be afraid of. [The Iranians] have no navy, we sunk all their ships.’
He went on to say: ‘Look, there is risk in the region, the region is volatile, their launchers, there’s just about 150 left, that’s just about 20% of totals, they can’t regenerate, they can’t make any more. We are in the region and need to act quickly on all these type of attacks.’
I wonder if Trump is willing to basically insure those tankers when crossing through there? Guarantee to pay for any damages by those Iranian missiles? Because if he wants them to get going again, that is what it would take. I seriously wonder, because on one hand, he tends to just bullshit all day, but rarely actually commits to doing stuff if it would be costly. But on the other hand, it would just be US taxpayer money and not his own, so it would be basically free since he doesn't value that in the slightest. The administration already put the DFC in as insurer of last resort when Lloyd's of London and everyone else left. Tankers are going through by just turning their transponders off, because Iran has no radars or naval assets left so as long as you don't scream "I AM AN OIL TANKER RIGHT HERE" there's no way for the "regime" to make good on threats that "If you can afford oil at $200 a barrel watch and see what happens." Because they have no targeting capabilities left for any missiles that they would happen to have operational still. Radar? You can literally stand on one side and see all the way to the other side. It's a strait. You cannot launch and give a firing solution to a ballistic or cruise missile with your eyes, regardless of whether you personally can see a certain ship from a beach or not.
It’s a giant metal box at sea level surrounded by water on all sides moving very slowly within sight range. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say they’re probably pretty easy to hit, even without radar tracking. But I guess we’ll see over the next few weeks.
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On March 10 2026 02:37 Billyboy wrote:
a grand conspiracy when a mix of hubris plus underestimating how batshit crazy Trump is will work.
The grand leader of Iran can almost never be charged with a crime. No criminal action means no conspiracy.
We'll see how good the super genius amazing US counter intelligence spies are at finding his son.
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On March 10 2026 02:40 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 02:33 oBlade wrote:On March 10 2026 02:16 KwarK wrote:On March 10 2026 02:13 oBlade wrote:On March 10 2026 02:04 Simberto wrote:On March 10 2026 00:03 Doublemint wrote:getting close to 2€/L for Diesel/Super over here. an increase of ~25% so far... yeah putting a 86 year old up as an amazing trophy and incredible kill is quintessential Trump. as is telling those tankers to just yolo through the Strait. "it's totally safe guys, they only got a couple drones and rockets left. what's the worst that can happen to a vessel filled to the brim with a highly combustible liquid?" he is the Mr. Magoo of politics. Trump Sends Message to Tankers as Oil Prices Spike: ‘Show Some Guts!’@Mediaite
Kilmeade revealed on Fox & Friends Monday that the president had urged oil transportation companies that use the route to “get to it” as he argued Iranian regime’s capability to attack the ships had been weakened.
He explained that during the call, he’d asked the president how he planned to “get the prices down,” then relayed Trump’s words:
He says, ‘Tell these tankers to get themselves, get to it, we have wiped out most of their launchers.’ Here is exactly what he said: ‘These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there’s nothing to be afraid of. [The Iranians] have no navy, we sunk all their ships.’
He went on to say: ‘Look, there is risk in the region, the region is volatile, their launchers, there’s just about 150 left, that’s just about 20% of totals, they can’t regenerate, they can’t make any more. We are in the region and need to act quickly on all these type of attacks.’
I wonder if Trump is willing to basically insure those tankers when crossing through there? Guarantee to pay for any damages by those Iranian missiles? Because if he wants them to get going again, that is what it would take. I seriously wonder, because on one hand, he tends to just bullshit all day, but rarely actually commits to doing stuff if it would be costly. But on the other hand, it would just be US taxpayer money and not his own, so it would be basically free since he doesn't value that in the slightest. The administration already put the DFC in as insurer of last resort when Lloyd's of London and everyone else left. Tankers are going through by just turning their transponders off, because Iran has no radars or naval assets left so as long as you don't scream "I AM AN OIL TANKER RIGHT HERE" there's no way for the "regime" to make good on threats that "If you can afford oil at $200 a barrel watch and see what happens." Because they have no targeting capabilities left for any missiles that they would happen to have operational still. Radar? You can literally stand on one side and see all the way to the other side. It's a strait. You cannot launch and give a firing solution to a ballistic or cruise missile with your eyes, regardless of whether you personally can see a certain ship from a beach or not. It’s a giant metal box at sea level surrounded by water on all sides moving very slowly within sight range. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say they’re probably pretty easy to hit, even without radar tracking. But I guess we’ll see over the next few weeks.
I assume we will see drone and not missile hits. Drones are easier to launch, cost less so seems like the better choice when you don't actually need to sink whatever you are shooting at. Both can be operated from distance or do target acquisition by themselves if you increase cost.
The more interesting thing will be how many are naval drones and how many are aerial drones.
Even missing would fulfill the Iranian goals while looking bad at a first glance. Crew doesn't want to do it. Insurance goes up. Which drives up oil prices.
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A few tankers are passing through despite the risks, and some are turning off their signals to pass through at night and may not be accounted for, said Matt Smith, an oil analyst with Kpler.
I agree with the premise though. Much fewer passed through the past few days.
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EPT
