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On March 09 2026 03:30 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2026 02:33 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 09 2026 00:24 WombaT wrote:On March 08 2026 20:18 baal wrote:On March 07 2026 23:02 WombaT wrote:On March 07 2026 19:19 baal wrote:
It's wild how powerless a country is against a dictator who controls the army and is willing to mass kill his own citizens to remain in power.
I used to be anti-gun ownership but now I'm very pro because I've realized that there only two mechanism to get rid of this kind of dictators, well armed citizens or foreign intervention, and the 2nd usually gets very ugly quick. Folks aren’t powerless, they just have to be willing to potentially die. I don’t know how much having guns changes this calculus really. Perhaps a little. If folks aren’t willing to potentially die, it’s largely moot whether they’re armed or not. If the relevant institutions aren’t willing to crush such a movement, same thing. like the 20k who died in Iran and accomplished nothing? + Show Spoiler +They came up against a regime willing to crush them
My point was without the will to potentially die en masse, whether you have guns or not is immaterial as you won’t do anything without that will.
And if the will of a regime to crush a movement isn’t there, whether it’s armed or not won’t really be a factor there either. + Show Spoiler +I mean scenarios exist where having guns is rather handy. A failed state and complete collapse, foreign occupation, where people are willing to fight for prolonged periods, or indeed have to in order to merely survive. People have pointed this out about fascists/Trump supporters before, but they are actually mostly cowards. Whether the population they are attempting to subjugate is armed or not makes a pretty huge difference. Every major war/conflict since Vietnam has demonstrated that the way to beat the US military hasn't been to outgun them though. The "they have tanks?!.." type rhetoric are just thoughtless clichés. If it comes down to it, I'd bet on Balkanization before the federal government can successfully beat a west coast resistance (especially if it has logistical support from China). + Show Spoiler +As I’ve said prior when the battleground was electoral and cultural, but also stands when it’s literal. Those folks also have guns.
Your analyses seem to frequently skip over that a big chunk of the population is either outright enthusiastic about the Fascism, or willing to hold their nose while other things they like are being done. Then various graduations of those opposed, some of whom wouldn’t countenance direct action, some who would.
I don’t consider it a matter of cowardice, but one of morale, as you alluded to earlier.
Is the threat bad enough for me to risk life and limb, personal bravery is part of it. But the bigger impediment is that of realistically making a difference. Who’s manning the battlements with me?
It’s a small cohort of people indeed who go from relative comfort to bat on behalf of others, with few folks beside them and little chance of success.
In a crude sense you need a pretty egregious big bad, and you need a society that is 60, 70 or whatever+ who are all on the same page vaguely, at least united in wanting the regime gone.
This is just generally how populations operate, in reality most people in the US have pretty tolerable lives, certainly not passing the threshold into armed insurrection.
Americans aren’t even engaging in many of the direct action steps before that threshold, so it’s just not realistically on the table.
Frankly, while I’m sympathetic to the politics, I think average Americans would be far more likely to take up arms against a socialist revolution than encroaching Fascism.
I've frequently made this point about ostensible "allies" that dominate/lead Democrat supporters' party.
What I'm talking about there isn't a socialist revolution (though that'd obviously be my preference generally). What I'm talking about there is just plain anti-authoritarianism of various stripes, geography, logistics, etc. making it much more likely for the West coast to resist indefinitely. Cannabis (particularly in the early legalization years) is a bit of a microcosm of how that works.
Probably won't start with secession. More informal ignoring of the federal government and no practical way for them to enforce it (without pushing the populace toward secession by making it increasingly rational).
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Trump threatening NATO allies with annexation and military action to take their territories and two months after whinning that they don’t follow him in his little war against Iran is just…
We really live in an idiocracy.
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‘Sky is the limit’: Analysts warn oil prices could surge further@CNBC
how about a nice boost to primary inflation as energy getting WAY more expensive means a guarantee of basically all things getting more expensive? a small bonus to all the fireworks and carnage which is totally under control and part of the special operation proceeding as planned.
but hey, it will be worth it says the unequalled man in the White House!
U.S. crude oil surged about 35% last week in its biggest gain in futures trading history dating back to 1983.
Shortly after oil blasted past $100 at the open of trading Sunday evening, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that a gain in “short term oil prices” was a “very small price to pay” for destroying Iran’s nuclear threat.
“Only fools would think differently!” Trump added.
pity the fool indeed.
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United States43668 Posts
“Why has nobody done this before now?” asks leader completely disinterested in learning the answer.
There had to have been people in the DoW who would have been capable of explaining why this was a bad idea. Presumably they got sidelined for questioning America’s greatness.
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Gas prices (and diesel) are a huge driver of overall inflation. Not only because almost everyone uses it personally but because everything you buy costs more to get where ever it is going and to build.
Trumps next speech is going to be about how high inflation and low stock market are signs of strength.
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It’s also literally raining oil in Iran after Israel bombed oil depots around Tehran. This is the sort of shit people don’t forget.
Like ignore the inflationary impact this has on American inflation, which was already starting to trend up. These actions have even larger economic consequences to the entire world. East Asia, who import most of their oil via the Middle East, are going to be eating metaphorical shit for a while.
Unlike a lot of interventions, this administration didn’t really bother developing a casus belli. Pretty much the entire world is blaming the US (and Israel) for their fuel prices increasing by 30-50%.
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When does everyone think Mojtaba Khamenei will be located by the USA's elite intelligence network and then killed by the US or Israeli military?
I project US/Israeli intelligence will never be able to pin down where Mojtaba Khamenei is located. He'll be around for many years.
Ok, just spit-balling here...
The 86 year old feeble, on death's door, cancer-ridden leader of Iran told the US military where he was because he wanted to die a martyr rather than die of testicle cancer. Rather than some brilliant piece of US//Israeli intelligence spying...Ali Khamenei flat out told the USA his location. Great leadership on his part to die a martyr and inspire a new generation of Iranians rather than end his life in such a standard way.
For some magical reason the super-elite, super-genius US and Israeli intelligence spies won't ever be able to pin down where Mojtaba Khamenei is located. He'll be around for years. Mojtaba Khamenei was pre-selected before his father was ever killed.
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On March 09 2026 10:37 baal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2026 22:35 LightSpectra wrote:
Afghanistan is a country of est. 40 million and the NATO mission committed no more than 18,000 troops at a time to holding it. The total U. S. armed forces plus reserves is over 2,000,000 people, so the security force in Afghanistan is about 0.009% of what you're calling "the full force of the US military". there werent 40 million taliban combatants and the RoE would be very differnt, the US military can't just carpet bomb Los Angeles to kill armed citizens, the more the military escalates aggression the more internal turnmoil within it ranks happen, soldiers aren't going to blow up their own families, thats how civil war factions are formed. What Afghanistan proved is that no matter how many planes and tanks you have to control a population you need boots on the ground and people to surrender, unless you are willing to obliterate them which isn't an option in a civil war.
What Afghanistan proved is that 18,000 troops being supplied from the other hemisphere can't hold a mountainous country of 40 million. It in no way proves that no government on Earth is capable of winning a civil war against insurgents using guerilla tactics, especially the richest government with the most well-funded military in human history.
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Well, I'll be damned, it seems like the end might, in fact, be near because I agree with Jimmy.
I was wondering in other threads how is it possible that Khamenei and people around him are so stupid that they, while 2 carrier strike groups are parked next to them, while it's more then obvious that USA and Israel have and will strike again decided that he should sleep in his bed in his residence.
Well, in the end, the only real, logical conclusion is that he decided that if he dies, he dies and he can die as a martyr, still stupid, but at least logical.
The new Ayatollah will be a much harder target, obviously the "eliminating everyone on the totem pole" strategy died down quickly after the first few days and I doubt that they can get the remaining high level officials from air.
In the meantime, the Trump regime finally decided on the messaging, it's "short term pain for long term gain", pain points being:
- another war in the middle east
- rising oil and gas prices increasing inflation
- American soldiers dying
- American allies being bombed and droned
- the war costing more then a billion a day
- heightened terrorism threat everywhere
- completely destabilize and balkanize a country of 90 million people already in crisis
- cause a massive refugee crisis
For the "long term gain" of:
- stopping the previously obliterated Nuclear program
- removing a dying man from power
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A proper military intervention doesn‘t look like this.
And why bomb fuel depots ?
If they wanted to, they could bring Iran down to its knees within weeks or months without them shooting rockets across half the middle east.
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getting close to 2€/L for Diesel/Super over here. an increase of ~25% so far...
yeah putting a 86 year old up as an amazing trophy and incredible kill is quintessential Trump.
as is telling those tankers to just yolo through the Strait. "it's totally safe guys, they only got a couple drones and rockets left. what's the worst that can happen to a vessel filled to the brim with a highly combustible liquid?"
he is the Mr. Magoo of politics.
Trump Sends Message to Tankers as Oil Prices Spike: ‘Show Some Guts!’@Mediaite
Kilmeade revealed on Fox & Friends Monday that the president had urged oil transportation companies that use the route to “get to it” as he argued Iranian regime’s capability to attack the ships had been weakened.
He explained that during the call, he’d asked the president how he planned to “get the prices down,” then relayed Trump’s words:
He says, ‘Tell these tankers to get themselves, get to it, we have wiped out most of their launchers.’ Here is exactly what he said: ‘These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there’s nothing to be afraid of. [The Iranians] have no navy, we sunk all their ships.’
He went on to say: ‘Look, there is risk in the region, the region is volatile, their launchers, there’s just about 150 left, that’s just about 20% of totals, they can’t regenerate, they can’t make any more. We are in the region and need to act quickly on all these type of attacks.’
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Fourth economic collapse during the fourth Republican administration of my lifetime. I'm so glad people chose to vote for a child molester because they were mad about egg prices, I'm sure they're getting what they wanted.
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On March 10 2026 00:00 Vivax wrote:
A proper military intervention doesn‘t look like this.
And why bomb fuel depots ?
If they wanted to, they could bring Iran down to its knees within weeks or months without them shooting rockets across half the middle east.
It seems like adults in the US military are starting to be sick of their Israeli counter parts:
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/08/us-dismayed-israel-iran-fuel-strikes
Those images are not only apocalyptic, they show complete disregard for the 10 million innocent civilians who will have to deal with all this smoke and fire, they show absolute lack of care for what this means for the world, atmosphere, hell, it also shows absolute disregard, even contempt that Israel holds for international opinion.
This is going to get very ugly as US and Israel start expanding their target list from obvious, military targets and start really embracing the rhetoric coming from Kegseth, "stupid rules of engagement" would usually say that killing 50 civilians to get to one IRGC commander is a no-no, well, Gaza has shown us very clearly that it's not a no-no for IDF, and I have serious doubts that the girl school they've blown up is the last of such incidents.
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On March 10 2026 00:05 LightSpectra wrote:
Fourth economic collapse during the fourth Republican administration of my lifetime. I'm so glad people chose to vote for a child molester because they were mad about egg prices, I'm sure they're getting what they wanted.
Maybe not what they want. But what they absolutely deserve. Can we shame them yet?
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On March 10 2026 00:05 Jankisa wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 00:00 Vivax wrote:
A proper military intervention doesn‘t look like this.
And why bomb fuel depots ?
If they wanted to, they could bring Iran down to its knees within weeks or months without them shooting rockets across half the middle east. It seems like adults in the US military are starting to be sick of their Israeli counter parts: https://www.axios.com/2026/03/08/us-dismayed-israel-iran-fuel-strikesThose images are not only apocalyptic, they show complete disregard for the 10 million innocent civilians who will have to deal with all this smoke and fire, they show absolute lack of care for what this means for the world, atmosphere, hell, it also shows absolute disregard, even contempt that Israel holds for international opinion. This is going to get very ugly as US and Israel start expanding their target list from obvious, military targets and start really embracing the rhetoric coming from Kegseth, "stupid rules of engagement" would usually say that killing 50 civilians to get to one IRGC commander is a no-no, well, Gaza has shown us very clearly that it's not a no-no for IDF, and I have serious doubts that the girl school they've blown up is the last of such incidents.
I think you can argue both sides for ignoring civilian casualties. If you respect them a lot you get some good long term PR but make any military action very hard since the opponent knows how to stop it. If you ignore them you prompt the opponent to take more actions to avoid military action and thus are unlikely to need to bomb civilians as often long term (with worse PR).
It is an extreme version of not negotiating with terrorists or hostage takers since it promotes the activity.
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On March 09 2026 23:51 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2026 10:37 baal wrote:On March 08 2026 22:35 LightSpectra wrote:
Afghanistan is a country of est. 40 million and the NATO mission committed no more than 18,000 troops at a time to holding it. The total U. S. armed forces plus reserves is over 2,000,000 people, so the security force in Afghanistan is about 0.009% of what you're calling "the full force of the US military". there werent 40 million taliban combatants and the RoE would be very differnt, the US military can't just carpet bomb Los Angeles to kill armed citizens, the more the military escalates aggression the more internal turnmoil within it ranks happen, soldiers aren't going to blow up their own families, thats how civil war factions are formed. What Afghanistan proved is that no matter how many planes and tanks you have to control a population you need boots on the ground and people to surrender, unless you are willing to obliterate them which isn't an option in a civil war. What Afghanistan proved is that 18,000 troops being supplied from the other hemisphere can't hold a mountainous country of 40 million. It in no way proves that no government on Earth is capable of winning a civil war against insurgents using guerilla tactics, especially the richest government with the most well-funded military in human history.
Even 18,000 troops were holding it fine, they just left.
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This is the 3rd time Israel/Netanyahu has fucked over the USA/Trump. Recall the "they don't know what the fuck they are doing" speech by Trump in late June 2025.
IMO, the USA's "help" to Israel started becoming pathological after JFK was assassinated. the 1967 capture of Jerusalem was a big inflection point.
The more Israel fucks over Trump the more evident it is that the Deep State is calling the shots on this war and not America's Assistant Regional Manager Donald Trump. And, of course, the more Israel does this crap the more incompetent Trump appears to be. He is supposed to be this big tough man, and yet he can't keep his 144 lb. little brother in line.
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On March 10 2026 00:33 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 00:05 Jankisa wrote:On March 10 2026 00:00 Vivax wrote:
A proper military intervention doesn‘t look like this.
And why bomb fuel depots ?
If they wanted to, they could bring Iran down to its knees within weeks or months without them shooting rockets across half the middle east. It seems like adults in the US military are starting to be sick of their Israeli counter parts: https://www.axios.com/2026/03/08/us-dismayed-israel-iran-fuel-strikesThose images are not only apocalyptic, they show complete disregard for the 10 million innocent civilians who will have to deal with all this smoke and fire, they show absolute lack of care for what this means for the world, atmosphere, hell, it also shows absolute disregard, even contempt that Israel holds for international opinion. This is going to get very ugly as US and Israel start expanding their target list from obvious, military targets and start really embracing the rhetoric coming from Kegseth, "stupid rules of engagement" would usually say that killing 50 civilians to get to one IRGC commander is a no-no, well, Gaza has shown us very clearly that it's not a no-no for IDF, and I have serious doubts that the girl school they've blown up is the last of such incidents. I think you can argue both sides for ignoring civilian casualties. If you respect them a lot you get some good long term PR but make any military action very hard since the opponent knows how to stop it. If you ignore them you prompt the opponent to take more actions to avoid military action and thus are unlikely to need to bomb civilians as often long term (with worse PR). It is an extreme version of not negotiating with terrorists or hostage takers since it promotes the activity.
I mean, that is one, in my eyes insane way of looking at this.
Why don't we just go back to Mongol times and have Israel and US simply vaporize a city of two, that will surely discourage Iranians from doing anything militarily.
Obviously the sniping of kids, mowing the lawn and other shit IDF's been doing in Palestine has really discouraged military actions from Hamas, right?
This shit does not work, more brutal you are, more brutal the response is. More you put the enemy in to a corner, more likely asymmetric warfare attacks are.
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On March 10 2026 00:58 JimmyJRaynor wrote:This is the 3rd time Israel/Netanyahu has fucked over the USA/Trump. Recall the "they don't know what the fuck they are doing" speech by Trump in late June 2025. IMO, the USA's "help" to Israel started becoming pathological after JFK was assassinated. the 1967 capture of Jerusalem was a bit inflection point. The more Israel fucks over Trump the more evident it is that the Deep State is calling the shots on this war and not America's Assistant Regional Manager Donald Trump. And, of course, the more Israel does this crap the more incompetent Trump appears to be. He is supposed to be this big tough man, and yet he can't keep his 144 lb. little brother in line.
Jankisa, any time you agree with Jimmy just remember this is the kind of stuff he thinks. It was just a couple days ago he floated that Iran was stopping their attacks because of an interceptor shortage. Which was dumb on so many levels because of course they didn’t stop, believing Iran is dumber than believing Trump and there is no grand conspiracy.
Ali Khamenei very well may have been OK with dying. But that he gave his location of a meeting with a bunch of high ups to all be blown up? Really? Like wouldn’t he do it solo?
Please don’t give Jimmy any oxygen, his conspiracy shit is straight from the dumbest “influencers” and targets only those who have no ability to logistically reason. This guy loves Candace Owens and Dice FFS.
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On March 10 2026 01:06 Jankisa wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2026 00:33 Yurie wrote:On March 10 2026 00:05 Jankisa wrote:On March 10 2026 00:00 Vivax wrote:
A proper military intervention doesn‘t look like this.
And why bomb fuel depots ?
If they wanted to, they could bring Iran down to its knees within weeks or months without them shooting rockets across half the middle east. It seems like adults in the US military are starting to be sick of their Israeli counter parts: https://www.axios.com/2026/03/08/us-dismayed-israel-iran-fuel-strikesThose images are not only apocalyptic, they show complete disregard for the 10 million innocent civilians who will have to deal with all this smoke and fire, they show absolute lack of care for what this means for the world, atmosphere, hell, it also shows absolute disregard, even contempt that Israel holds for international opinion. This is going to get very ugly as US and Israel start expanding their target list from obvious, military targets and start really embracing the rhetoric coming from Kegseth, "stupid rules of engagement" would usually say that killing 50 civilians to get to one IRGC commander is a no-no, well, Gaza has shown us very clearly that it's not a no-no for IDF, and I have serious doubts that the girl school they've blown up is the last of such incidents. I think you can argue both sides for ignoring civilian casualties. If you respect them a lot you get some good long term PR but make any military action very hard since the opponent knows how to stop it. If you ignore them you prompt the opponent to take more actions to avoid military action and thus are unlikely to need to bomb civilians as often long term (with worse PR). It is an extreme version of not negotiating with terrorists or hostage takers since it promotes the activity. I mean, that is one, in my eyes insane way of looking at this. Why don't we just go back to Mongol times and have Israel and US simply vaporize a city of two, that will surely discourage Iranians from doing anything militarily. Obviously the sniping of kids, mowing the lawn and other shit IDF's been doing in Palestine has really discouraged military actions from Hamas, right? This shit does not work, more brutal you are, more brutal the response is. More you put the enemy in to a corner, more likely asymmetric warfare attacks are.
If your goal is to conquer and then cheaply run a place there are worse people to look at.
The thing that tends to work is to put a local leader that is loyal to you to run things. Then tax/get smaller concessions from them until that leader dies. Then lean on the choice of who they pick next. That is what the mongols did, they used fear as part of running easier wars and ensuring loyalty. That is what the British did in India, what the US/Europe has been doing in central Africa. It stops working sooner or later in most cases since it is unpopular among the locals. This seems to be what the US wants to do here and in Venezuela, it is just hard without boots on the ground.
You also have the Russian/Chinese version that works. Put the locals in the gulag until they die. Then put your people there instead (at a minimum make sure your population is the majority, with or without the killing). This option doesn't work for the US since they have no need for 50 million Iranians in work camps and don't have 40 million Americans they can force to move to Iran.
Then there is the final version, where you force a nation to write a specific constitution and believe in it. Putting a good leader, military and system in place and then leaning on them to keep that running. The Japan/Germany version. Still troops there 70 years later, which wasn't popular for Afghanistan and likely will not be for Iran either.
The best option for Iran was non-violent though and the Democrats ran that well. Put sanctions and various pressures on them, then wave a carrot in front of them for what you actually want and let them explain it at home.
I strongly favor non-violent solutions to problems where possible. If you are going to go the sub-optimal violent route, at least be honest about your goals and what it takes to achieve them. Then do those things if you think they are moral or never start the thing in the first place.
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EPT
