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Canada11363 Posts
On November 04 2024 20:25 Razyda wrote:Actually genuine question: Do you guys have any values, which you are not ready to drop in an instant, if DNC Services Corporation will tell you too? At this point I am sure you didnt jump out of joy on Putin Kamala endorsement, is because you wouldn't be able to complain about Russian election interference. Show nested quote +On November 04 2024 19:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote:
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. She also picked up a last minute endorsement from Harrison Ford, who is famous for beating up Nazis  Also, how bad a candidate does white supremacist Donald Trump need to be, for one of his own white supremacist followers to eventually decide to support a biracial woman who actually condemns white supremacy lmao. bolded - That's miserable spin on that. Much simpler read of this is "White supremacist decided that Kamala is better for White supremacists" On more of a funny note, recent Kamala add: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/dem-nsfw-ad-stirs-debate-painting-gop-as-extreme-on-porn-censorship/articleshow/114661258.cmsessentially reads "wankers will be worse of under Trump", not sure if this means the same in US, as in UK, but it doesn't exactly seems like a message Democrats want to send out.
No. This is a dumb take. It's dumb when the Liberals try to do this with my party up in Canada. It's dumb if Democrats did it with run of the mill Republicans like Bush, McCain, or Romney, and it's dumb to try and do it now. I can't remember if I've put in this argument before or if like so many, I've written and then deleted it rather than posting.
edit. And actually I did. I'll just repost it as the argument is entirely applicable. This was me writing in defence of the Trucker protest, by the way.
On May 11 2024 03:28 Falling wrote:Show nested quote + while still positing "Hey isn't it odd that the economic terrorism that they're committing for some reason attracts nazis and racists?" Because thats what people who can use their own critical thinking to decide what they think about a situation do Welp. By using that same standard, the pro-Palestine movement is also Nazi sympathetic. 2021 Ontario pro-Palestine protest also flew the Swastika https://twitter.com/bnaibrithcanada/status/1393778246140014600?s=20Isn't it odd that for some reason the movement attracts Nazis and racists? Kinda makes a fella wonder. Ontario again... maybe it was the same guy... Surprise, surprise Nazi sympathizers are also not terribly supportive of Israel... unless it means deporting all Jews to it. But this is faulty guilty by association thinking. Group A thinks B You think B Therefore you are Group A. This gets trotted out in the immigration debate. Canada has in the last decade increased their immigration numbers substantially to around 500,000 per year. If you dare to voice (in the realm of politics) the idea of turning down that number to say, 2015 numbers or earlier, suddenly you are hit with a racism charge because racists also want less immigrants in the country... because apparently there are no other reasons to want to roll back immigration to a smaller number. And of course you will get some money quote from a racist organization, signing off on whichever party wants to lower immigration because of course they would support any party that would do so. So then "Isn't it odd that for some reason your lower immigration policy attracts racists and Nazis." Kinda makes a fella wonder. But maybe that example doesn't truly demonstrate the ridiculousness of this line of reasoning if you've become too entrenched along particular ideological battle lines. So here's another: The Nazis hated impressionistic art and lauded romantic realism. You hate impressionistic art and prefer romantic realism. You are a Nazi. The proper formulation would be: Nazis hate impressionistic art and laud romantic realism You are a Nazi Therefore you (likely) hate impressionistic art and laud romantic realism. You cannot simply assume that because one or two despicable individuals are supportive of your movement, ergo the movement is based upon the same foundation that the despicable individual is supporting it. That is, unless it is something truly foundational to that despicable belief system/ organization, etc. A good policy can be supported by heinous people for heinous reasons but that does not inherently say anything about the goodness or badness of the policy or the motivations of the people in the main, unless there are more direct links.We cannot go after The Beatles because Charles Manson thought Helter Skelter was supportive of his post-apocalyptic race war ideas. Isn't it odd that for some reason the song attracted Nazis and racists? Kinda makes a fella wonder.
I defended the Trucker protest against this guilt by association, and I would use the exact same argument to defend the Harris campaign. It's always been a dumb argument unless you can find more direct links of alignment in actions, speech, or belief systems. And it remains a dumb argument to trot out now.
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On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 01:51 WombaT wrote:On November 05 2024 00:54 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 18:40 EnDeR_ wrote:On November 04 2024 18:30 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote:
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian. Like those two grifters are relevant in any way. lol. I thought it was weird, so I checked it out: Given the slightly surprising endorsement, both due to his politics and previous comments about women, Spencer clarified in a phone interview with Newsweek on Saturday morning, "I just want someone who is competent to be in charge so that something can happen, as opposed to demonization of the other side." He also added that: "there's a total absence of policy among the GOP. It's the 'no' party, it's almost nihilistic party," in contrast to how he views the Democrats as, "more competent," "able to be reasonable," and wanting "to govern the whole country." and He continued: "When I put it that way, the choice is very clear. I think Donald Trump and the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement bring nothing but stupidity and chaos." While the dude is completely reprehensible, the criticism is pretty much spot on. I thought this would be some low effort confusion trolling attempt, but interesting. I can see his point though, DJT is no posterchild for any ideology you really want to further. He's a clown, obviously very uneducated, a liar and narcissist. I still struggle to understand him having any appeal. I give him charisma, but that's about it. In my opinion calling him Hitler is actually an insult to Adolf. Say what you want about the man, at least he had an ideology and the policies. Edit: What's most worrying to me about the orange man is his irrational long lasting vindictiveness. From Liz Cheney over Obama to the offshore windmills at his golf course in Scotland. He can't let it go. That's also why he hates my country so much: 2 failed Trump Tower projects (Frankfurt and Stuttgart). Fascinating story, attempted money laundering in plain sight but local officials called him out. There’s probably some cafe in Buenos Aires where Hitler has spent the last 8 years frequently fuming about the comparison. Yeah I think you’re bang on there, Trump doesn’t need to himself be a devoted fascist to enable those who are. You allude to it in your post, what I consider probably Trump’s most dangerous attribute as a leader, his seemingly pathological need for absolute loyalty. Not a loyalty to party, country etc, but to him. You then combine that with his seeming lack of ideological convictions, and it’s a rather manipulable combo. All you have to do is placate his ego and hey, you’re somewhat in favour now. I mean consider the following hypothetical, (and no I’m keeping it simple and not adding a million and one caveats), which scenario do you think Trump himself would find preferable?: 1. The GOP as a broad conservative coalition, including influential figures within the tent who are critical of Trump. 2. The GOP pivots further right, to be full-blown Fascist, or in that ballpark but is slavishly loyal to the Donald. As an aside, your point re personal slights is a very well-made one. I feel it’s not quite talked about enough. We’re not even always talking frosty interpersonal relations, or pettiness on minor issues, but quite considerable movement on big foreign policy that maps remarkably well onto ‘what country does Trump have some grudge against?’ The Putin relationship is the perfect example. The US is killing it because of Russia being sanctioned. The subsidies for Ukraine are a joke compared to the net profit the US economy gets becauses of energy prices over the last two years. That lie about the economy being better under Trump pisses me off so much.
Using regional wars in order to provoke international sanctions to control energy prices is exactly the foreign policy of the Republican Party of 20 years ago. Some of us hated it. Some were just pretending. I prefer the guy who didn't allow an absurd war. You do not need war to run an economy. To the extent that you set up an economy to run on war, it deserves to suffer from peace until it's corrected, ESPECIALLY the public sector. How are your energy costs doing by the way?
On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:
Hopefully he won't make it, but if, i wanna see him deporting the cheap labor force while putting a 20% tarrif on imports and see how that works out for fixing inflation.
That'd be great. The past millions of jobs have net gone to immigrants, with jobs stagnant and being lost for natives. The government net loses money also, when it creates its makework BS jobs, because they don't come with enough growth to pay back their own cost in the debt the US takes to make them.
For example the IRA spent $369 billion to "create" 300k jobs, meaning a million and a quarter per job. Thanks OBiden.
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On November 05 2024 03:11 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:On November 05 2024 01:51 WombaT wrote:On November 05 2024 00:54 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 18:40 EnDeR_ wrote:On November 04 2024 18:30 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote:
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian. Like those two grifters are relevant in any way. lol. I thought it was weird, so I checked it out: Given the slightly surprising endorsement, both due to his politics and previous comments about women, Spencer clarified in a phone interview with Newsweek on Saturday morning, "I just want someone who is competent to be in charge so that something can happen, as opposed to demonization of the other side." He also added that: "there's a total absence of policy among the GOP. It's the 'no' party, it's almost nihilistic party," in contrast to how he views the Democrats as, "more competent," "able to be reasonable," and wanting "to govern the whole country." and He continued: "When I put it that way, the choice is very clear. I think Donald Trump and the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement bring nothing but stupidity and chaos." While the dude is completely reprehensible, the criticism is pretty much spot on. I thought this would be some low effort confusion trolling attempt, but interesting. I can see his point though, DJT is no posterchild for any ideology you really want to further. He's a clown, obviously very uneducated, a liar and narcissist. I still struggle to understand him having any appeal. I give him charisma, but that's about it. In my opinion calling him Hitler is actually an insult to Adolf. Say what you want about the man, at least he had an ideology and the policies. Edit: What's most worrying to me about the orange man is his irrational long lasting vindictiveness. From Liz Cheney over Obama to the offshore windmills at his golf course in Scotland. He can't let it go. That's also why he hates my country so much: 2 failed Trump Tower projects (Frankfurt and Stuttgart). Fascinating story, attempted money laundering in plain sight but local officials called him out. There’s probably some cafe in Buenos Aires where Hitler has spent the last 8 years frequently fuming about the comparison. Yeah I think you’re bang on there, Trump doesn’t need to himself be a devoted fascist to enable those who are. You allude to it in your post, what I consider probably Trump’s most dangerous attribute as a leader, his seemingly pathological need for absolute loyalty. Not a loyalty to party, country etc, but to him. You then combine that with his seeming lack of ideological convictions, and it’s a rather manipulable combo. All you have to do is placate his ego and hey, you’re somewhat in favour now. I mean consider the following hypothetical, (and no I’m keeping it simple and not adding a million and one caveats), which scenario do you think Trump himself would find preferable?: 1. The GOP as a broad conservative coalition, including influential figures within the tent who are critical of Trump. 2. The GOP pivots further right, to be full-blown Fascist, or in that ballpark but is slavishly loyal to the Donald. As an aside, your point re personal slights is a very well-made one. I feel it’s not quite talked about enough. We’re not even always talking frosty interpersonal relations, or pettiness on minor issues, but quite considerable movement on big foreign policy that maps remarkably well onto ‘what country does Trump have some grudge against?’ The Putin relationship is the perfect example. The US is killing it because of Russia being sanctioned. The subsidies for Ukraine are a joke compared to the net profit the US economy gets becauses of energy prices over the last two years. That lie about the economy being better under Trump pisses me off so much. Using regional wars in order to provoke international sanctions to control energy prices is exactly the foreign policy of the Republican Party of 20 years ago. Some of us hated it. Some were just pretending. I prefer the guy who didn't allow an absurd war. You do not need war to run an economy. To the extent that you set up an economy to run on war, it deserves to suffer from peace until it's corrected, ESPECIALLY the public sector. How are your energy costs doing by the way? Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:
Hopefully he won't make it, but if, i wanna see him deporting the cheap labor force while putting a 20% tarrif on imports and see how that works out for fixing inflation.
That'd be great. The past millions of jobs have net gone to immigrants, with jobs stagnant and being lost for natives. The government net loses money also, when it creates its makework BS jobs, because they don't come with enough growth to pay back their own cost in the debt the US takes to make them. For example the IRA spent $369 billion to "create" 300k jobs, meaning a million and a quarter per job. Thanks OBiden.
You seem to be of the mindset that the *only* reward of the $369B spent was creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.
That's not true. There was so much more.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Guidebook.pdf
Page 4 has the enormous table of contents.
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United States10193 Posts
On November 05 2024 01:50 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 01:44 FlaShFTW wrote:Here's my final 2024 prediction map. The key: Light shade = <2%, Medium Shade = 2-5%, and Dark shade = >5%. I'm going to choose to believe the Selzer poll, but not entirely. I think Trump is going to outperform the remaining undecided voter there and it's going to be another Bush vs Kerry 2004 incident where Kerry barely lost the state. I think this will also signal other states like NC and GA that they will fall for Harris, which I predict will roughly be +1.5% Harris when all is said and done. Some other notables, the Selzer poll also would signal some more competitive races in Florida and Texas, which I expect to become closer this year than previous years, with both predicted to be +4% Trump. Rust Belt should go to Harris +3% or so. Nevada and Arizona are on the cusp at around 2%. Bellweathers for tomorrow: Virginia. I fully expect Harris to win this state by over 5 points, and an early call like in 2020 is going to be good news for her. Anything after 8-9pm ET, and Harris is going to be in for a long night. Also pay special attention to Ohio. Trump won the state +9 in 2020, but more polls have shown him around only +6-7 points. While I do expect Ohio to be called early, I think it's worth looking at the state for some bellweather forecast on the Rust Belt. That's a more optimistic result than I thought, but I'd love to see that  Will you be providing your traditional coverage tomorrow night too?
Of course. I have to live up to TL's Election Coverage/Decision Desk. I'll also be streaming it and I'll post a link tomorrow when I go live. Here's hoping for an early night and we'll see which will be my alcohol of choice for tomorrow.
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On November 05 2024 03:11 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:On November 05 2024 01:51 WombaT wrote:On November 05 2024 00:54 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 18:40 EnDeR_ wrote:On November 04 2024 18:30 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote:
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian. Like those two grifters are relevant in any way. lol. I thought it was weird, so I checked it out: Given the slightly surprising endorsement, both due to his politics and previous comments about women, Spencer clarified in a phone interview with Newsweek on Saturday morning, "I just want someone who is competent to be in charge so that something can happen, as opposed to demonization of the other side." He also added that: "there's a total absence of policy among the GOP. It's the 'no' party, it's almost nihilistic party," in contrast to how he views the Democrats as, "more competent," "able to be reasonable," and wanting "to govern the whole country." and He continued: "When I put it that way, the choice is very clear. I think Donald Trump and the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement bring nothing but stupidity and chaos." While the dude is completely reprehensible, the criticism is pretty much spot on. I thought this would be some low effort confusion trolling attempt, but interesting. I can see his point though, DJT is no posterchild for any ideology you really want to further. He's a clown, obviously very uneducated, a liar and narcissist. I still struggle to understand him having any appeal. I give him charisma, but that's about it. In my opinion calling him Hitler is actually an insult to Adolf. Say what you want about the man, at least he had an ideology and the policies. Edit: What's most worrying to me about the orange man is his irrational long lasting vindictiveness. From Liz Cheney over Obama to the offshore windmills at his golf course in Scotland. He can't let it go. That's also why he hates my country so much: 2 failed Trump Tower projects (Frankfurt and Stuttgart). Fascinating story, attempted money laundering in plain sight but local officials called him out. There’s probably some cafe in Buenos Aires where Hitler has spent the last 8 years frequently fuming about the comparison. Yeah I think you’re bang on there, Trump doesn’t need to himself be a devoted fascist to enable those who are. You allude to it in your post, what I consider probably Trump’s most dangerous attribute as a leader, his seemingly pathological need for absolute loyalty. Not a loyalty to party, country etc, but to him. You then combine that with his seeming lack of ideological convictions, and it’s a rather manipulable combo. All you have to do is placate his ego and hey, you’re somewhat in favour now. I mean consider the following hypothetical, (and no I’m keeping it simple and not adding a million and one caveats), which scenario do you think Trump himself would find preferable?: 1. The GOP as a broad conservative coalition, including influential figures within the tent who are critical of Trump. 2. The GOP pivots further right, to be full-blown Fascist, or in that ballpark but is slavishly loyal to the Donald. As an aside, your point re personal slights is a very well-made one. I feel it’s not quite talked about enough. We’re not even always talking frosty interpersonal relations, or pettiness on minor issues, but quite considerable movement on big foreign policy that maps remarkably well onto ‘what country does Trump have some grudge against?’ The Putin relationship is the perfect example. The US is killing it because of Russia being sanctioned. The subsidies for Ukraine are a joke compared to the net profit the US economy gets becauses of energy prices over the last two years. That lie about the economy being better under Trump pisses me off so much. Using regional wars in order to provoke international sanctions to control energy prices is exactly the foreign policy of the Republican Party of 20 years ago. Some of us hated it. Some were just pretending. I prefer the guy who didn't allow an absurd war. You do not need war to run an economy. To the extent that you set up an economy to run on war, it deserves to suffer from peace until it's corrected, ESPECIALLY the public sector. How are your energy costs doing by the way? Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:
Hopefully he won't make it, but if, i wanna see him deporting the cheap labor force while putting a 20% tarrif on imports and see how that works out for fixing inflation.
That'd be great. The past millions of jobs have net gone to immigrants, with jobs stagnant and being lost for natives. The government net loses money also, when it creates its makework BS jobs, because they don't come with enough growth to pay back their own cost in the debt the US takes to make them. For example the IRA spent $369 billion to "create" 300k jobs, meaning a million and a quarter per job. Thanks OBiden.
The "Trump at least is not a warmonger" narrative, lovin' it.
And finally the cleaning, harvest helper and other not so desirable jobs are available to true Americans. Thank the Donald.
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On November 05 2024 03:43 r00ty wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 03:11 oBlade wrote:On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:On November 05 2024 01:51 WombaT wrote:On November 05 2024 00:54 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 18:40 EnDeR_ wrote:On November 04 2024 18:30 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote:
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian. Like those two grifters are relevant in any way. lol. I thought it was weird, so I checked it out: Given the slightly surprising endorsement, both due to his politics and previous comments about women, Spencer clarified in a phone interview with Newsweek on Saturday morning, "I just want someone who is competent to be in charge so that something can happen, as opposed to demonization of the other side." He also added that: "there's a total absence of policy among the GOP. It's the 'no' party, it's almost nihilistic party," in contrast to how he views the Democrats as, "more competent," "able to be reasonable," and wanting "to govern the whole country." and He continued: "When I put it that way, the choice is very clear. I think Donald Trump and the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement bring nothing but stupidity and chaos." While the dude is completely reprehensible, the criticism is pretty much spot on. I thought this would be some low effort confusion trolling attempt, but interesting. I can see his point though, DJT is no posterchild for any ideology you really want to further. He's a clown, obviously very uneducated, a liar and narcissist. I still struggle to understand him having any appeal. I give him charisma, but that's about it. In my opinion calling him Hitler is actually an insult to Adolf. Say what you want about the man, at least he had an ideology and the policies. Edit: What's most worrying to me about the orange man is his irrational long lasting vindictiveness. From Liz Cheney over Obama to the offshore windmills at his golf course in Scotland. He can't let it go. That's also why he hates my country so much: 2 failed Trump Tower projects (Frankfurt and Stuttgart). Fascinating story, attempted money laundering in plain sight but local officials called him out. There’s probably some cafe in Buenos Aires where Hitler has spent the last 8 years frequently fuming about the comparison. Yeah I think you’re bang on there, Trump doesn’t need to himself be a devoted fascist to enable those who are. You allude to it in your post, what I consider probably Trump’s most dangerous attribute as a leader, his seemingly pathological need for absolute loyalty. Not a loyalty to party, country etc, but to him. You then combine that with his seeming lack of ideological convictions, and it’s a rather manipulable combo. All you have to do is placate his ego and hey, you’re somewhat in favour now. I mean consider the following hypothetical, (and no I’m keeping it simple and not adding a million and one caveats), which scenario do you think Trump himself would find preferable?: 1. The GOP as a broad conservative coalition, including influential figures within the tent who are critical of Trump. 2. The GOP pivots further right, to be full-blown Fascist, or in that ballpark but is slavishly loyal to the Donald. As an aside, your point re personal slights is a very well-made one. I feel it’s not quite talked about enough. We’re not even always talking frosty interpersonal relations, or pettiness on minor issues, but quite considerable movement on big foreign policy that maps remarkably well onto ‘what country does Trump have some grudge against?’ The Putin relationship is the perfect example. The US is killing it because of Russia being sanctioned. The subsidies for Ukraine are a joke compared to the net profit the US economy gets becauses of energy prices over the last two years. That lie about the economy being better under Trump pisses me off so much. Using regional wars in order to provoke international sanctions to control energy prices is exactly the foreign policy of the Republican Party of 20 years ago. Some of us hated it. Some were just pretending. I prefer the guy who didn't allow an absurd war. You do not need war to run an economy. To the extent that you set up an economy to run on war, it deserves to suffer from peace until it's corrected, ESPECIALLY the public sector. How are your energy costs doing by the way? On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:
Hopefully he won't make it, but if, i wanna see him deporting the cheap labor force while putting a 20% tarrif on imports and see how that works out for fixing inflation.
That'd be great. The past millions of jobs have net gone to immigrants, with jobs stagnant and being lost for natives. The government net loses money also, when it creates its makework BS jobs, because they don't come with enough growth to pay back their own cost in the debt the US takes to make them. For example the IRA spent $369 billion to "create" 300k jobs, meaning a million and a quarter per job. Thanks OBiden. The "Trump at least is not a warmonger" narrative, lovin' it. And finally the cleaning, harvest helper and other not so desirable jobs are available to true Americans. Thank the Donald.
Trump being more anti-war is one of those fake news that I also didn't realize until recently was not only completely and utterly made up - it's the literal opposite of reality. I can see his supporters very easily falling for that lie.
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On November 05 2024 01:44 FlaShFTW wrote:Here's my final 2024 prediction map. The key: Light shade = <2%, Medium Shade = 2-5%, and Dark shade = >5%. I'm going to choose to believe the Selzer poll, but not entirely. I think Trump is going to outperform the remaining undecided voter there and it's going to be another Bush vs Kerry 2004 incident where Kerry barely lost the state. I think this will also signal other states like NC and GA that they will fall for Harris, which I predict will roughly be +1.5% Harris when all is said and done. Some other notables, the Selzer poll also would signal some more competitive races in Florida and Texas, which I expect to become closer this year than previous years, with both predicted to be +4% Trump. Rust Belt should go to Harris +3% or so. Nevada and Arizona are on the cusp at around 2%. Bellweathers for tomorrow: Virginia. I fully expect Harris to win this state by over 5 points, and an early call like in 2020 is going to be good news for her. Anything after 8-9pm ET, and Harris is going to be in for a long night. Also pay special attention to Ohio. Trump won the state +9 in 2020, but more polls have shown him around only +6-7 points. While I do expect Ohio to be called early, I think it's worth looking at the state for some bellweather forecast on the Rust Belt.
Very generous giving Harris every swing state, esp Arizona, Georgia, and NC. Every Biden state + NC? Doubt it. Even Nevada is tenuous, though it's another GOP white whale so that's fine. I think he wins GA/AZ and would only need one of MI/WI/PA (in reverse likelihood). I'd rather be him than her.
Senate, GOP +3-5. WV, MT, Ohio. Again one of MI/WI/PA would be a great bonus. Doubt Lake gets there but it depends on how much Trump wins by.
House goes the way of the presidency...not sure on this one, might go the way of the popular vote winner, but very narrow either way possible.
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I wasn't giving much credit to the "boomer women redemption arc" meme, but I had an interesting conversation with my mother in law that helped me understand why it might be true. My mother in law is your typical rural Democrat. She holds conservative views on many topics and is against a lot of things we associate with "the squad" and whatnot. I could imagine her voting for Romney pretty easily.
She has been staying with us for a couple days and we discussed the election last night. She's generally pretty measured/mild about political issues and isn't what I would describe as loud. A switch flipped when she was talking about abortion and suddenly she was impassioned and provided deep descriptions of why the current republican stance on abortion is absolutely abhorrent and beyond forgiveness.
During our discussion, she highlighted a detail I had not considered when assessing whether the "boomer women redemption arc" theory had merit: Boomer women have clear memories of tragedies from the times before abortion was legal. For them, the reasons for protecting abortion access rights were so clear that they never considered those rights would ever be taken away. Not sure how to quite describe the shift in her tone and whatnot, but the gist of it is that taking away those rights is unthinkable and unforgivable to her. I think even if she hated everything about Harris, she would have still voted for Harris purely because of abortion rights. She basically viewed it as outlawing electricity.
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On November 05 2024 03:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 03:11 oBlade wrote:On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:On November 05 2024 01:51 WombaT wrote:On November 05 2024 00:54 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 18:40 EnDeR_ wrote:On November 04 2024 18:30 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote:
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian. Like those two grifters are relevant in any way. lol. I thought it was weird, so I checked it out: Given the slightly surprising endorsement, both due to his politics and previous comments about women, Spencer clarified in a phone interview with Newsweek on Saturday morning, "I just want someone who is competent to be in charge so that something can happen, as opposed to demonization of the other side." He also added that: "there's a total absence of policy among the GOP. It's the 'no' party, it's almost nihilistic party," in contrast to how he views the Democrats as, "more competent," "able to be reasonable," and wanting "to govern the whole country." and He continued: "When I put it that way, the choice is very clear. I think Donald Trump and the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement bring nothing but stupidity and chaos." While the dude is completely reprehensible, the criticism is pretty much spot on. I thought this would be some low effort confusion trolling attempt, but interesting. I can see his point though, DJT is no posterchild for any ideology you really want to further. He's a clown, obviously very uneducated, a liar and narcissist. I still struggle to understand him having any appeal. I give him charisma, but that's about it. In my opinion calling him Hitler is actually an insult to Adolf. Say what you want about the man, at least he had an ideology and the policies. Edit: What's most worrying to me about the orange man is his irrational long lasting vindictiveness. From Liz Cheney over Obama to the offshore windmills at his golf course in Scotland. He can't let it go. That's also why he hates my country so much: 2 failed Trump Tower projects (Frankfurt and Stuttgart). Fascinating story, attempted money laundering in plain sight but local officials called him out. There’s probably some cafe in Buenos Aires where Hitler has spent the last 8 years frequently fuming about the comparison. Yeah I think you’re bang on there, Trump doesn’t need to himself be a devoted fascist to enable those who are. You allude to it in your post, what I consider probably Trump’s most dangerous attribute as a leader, his seemingly pathological need for absolute loyalty. Not a loyalty to party, country etc, but to him. You then combine that with his seeming lack of ideological convictions, and it’s a rather manipulable combo. All you have to do is placate his ego and hey, you’re somewhat in favour now. I mean consider the following hypothetical, (and no I’m keeping it simple and not adding a million and one caveats), which scenario do you think Trump himself would find preferable?: 1. The GOP as a broad conservative coalition, including influential figures within the tent who are critical of Trump. 2. The GOP pivots further right, to be full-blown Fascist, or in that ballpark but is slavishly loyal to the Donald. As an aside, your point re personal slights is a very well-made one. I feel it’s not quite talked about enough. We’re not even always talking frosty interpersonal relations, or pettiness on minor issues, but quite considerable movement on big foreign policy that maps remarkably well onto ‘what country does Trump have some grudge against?’ The Putin relationship is the perfect example. The US is killing it because of Russia being sanctioned. The subsidies for Ukraine are a joke compared to the net profit the US economy gets becauses of energy prices over the last two years. That lie about the economy being better under Trump pisses me off so much. Using regional wars in order to provoke international sanctions to control energy prices is exactly the foreign policy of the Republican Party of 20 years ago. Some of us hated it. Some were just pretending. I prefer the guy who didn't allow an absurd war. You do not need war to run an economy. To the extent that you set up an economy to run on war, it deserves to suffer from peace until it's corrected, ESPECIALLY the public sector. How are your energy costs doing by the way? On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:
Hopefully he won't make it, but if, i wanna see him deporting the cheap labor force while putting a 20% tarrif on imports and see how that works out for fixing inflation.
That'd be great. The past millions of jobs have net gone to immigrants, with jobs stagnant and being lost for natives. The government net loses money also, when it creates its makework BS jobs, because they don't come with enough growth to pay back their own cost in the debt the US takes to make them. For example the IRA spent $369 billion to "create" 300k jobs, meaning a million and a quarter per job. Thanks OBiden. You seem to be of the mindset that the *only* reward of the $369B spent was creating hundreds of thousands of jobs. That's not true. There was so much more. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Guidebook.pdf Page 4 has the enormous table of contents.
You seem more familiar than me - I don't have time to read all 180 pages at the moment - What's the approximate value of everything that was created besides the jobs?
On November 05 2024 03:43 r00ty wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 03:11 oBlade wrote:On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:On November 05 2024 01:51 WombaT wrote:On November 05 2024 00:54 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 18:40 EnDeR_ wrote:On November 04 2024 18:30 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote:
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian. Like those two grifters are relevant in any way. lol. I thought it was weird, so I checked it out: Given the slightly surprising endorsement, both due to his politics and previous comments about women, Spencer clarified in a phone interview with Newsweek on Saturday morning, "I just want someone who is competent to be in charge so that something can happen, as opposed to demonization of the other side." He also added that: "there's a total absence of policy among the GOP. It's the 'no' party, it's almost nihilistic party," in contrast to how he views the Democrats as, "more competent," "able to be reasonable," and wanting "to govern the whole country." and He continued: "When I put it that way, the choice is very clear. I think Donald Trump and the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement bring nothing but stupidity and chaos." While the dude is completely reprehensible, the criticism is pretty much spot on. I thought this would be some low effort confusion trolling attempt, but interesting. I can see his point though, DJT is no posterchild for any ideology you really want to further. He's a clown, obviously very uneducated, a liar and narcissist. I still struggle to understand him having any appeal. I give him charisma, but that's about it. In my opinion calling him Hitler is actually an insult to Adolf. Say what you want about the man, at least he had an ideology and the policies. Edit: What's most worrying to me about the orange man is his irrational long lasting vindictiveness. From Liz Cheney over Obama to the offshore windmills at his golf course in Scotland. He can't let it go. That's also why he hates my country so much: 2 failed Trump Tower projects (Frankfurt and Stuttgart). Fascinating story, attempted money laundering in plain sight but local officials called him out. There’s probably some cafe in Buenos Aires where Hitler has spent the last 8 years frequently fuming about the comparison. Yeah I think you’re bang on there, Trump doesn’t need to himself be a devoted fascist to enable those who are. You allude to it in your post, what I consider probably Trump’s most dangerous attribute as a leader, his seemingly pathological need for absolute loyalty. Not a loyalty to party, country etc, but to him. You then combine that with his seeming lack of ideological convictions, and it’s a rather manipulable combo. All you have to do is placate his ego and hey, you’re somewhat in favour now. I mean consider the following hypothetical, (and no I’m keeping it simple and not adding a million and one caveats), which scenario do you think Trump himself would find preferable?: 1. The GOP as a broad conservative coalition, including influential figures within the tent who are critical of Trump. 2. The GOP pivots further right, to be full-blown Fascist, or in that ballpark but is slavishly loyal to the Donald. As an aside, your point re personal slights is a very well-made one. I feel it’s not quite talked about enough. We’re not even always talking frosty interpersonal relations, or pettiness on minor issues, but quite considerable movement on big foreign policy that maps remarkably well onto ‘what country does Trump have some grudge against?’ The Putin relationship is the perfect example. The US is killing it because of Russia being sanctioned. The subsidies for Ukraine are a joke compared to the net profit the US economy gets becauses of energy prices over the last two years. That lie about the economy being better under Trump pisses me off so much. Using regional wars in order to provoke international sanctions to control energy prices is exactly the foreign policy of the Republican Party of 20 years ago. Some of us hated it. Some were just pretending. I prefer the guy who didn't allow an absurd war. You do not need war to run an economy. To the extent that you set up an economy to run on war, it deserves to suffer from peace until it's corrected, ESPECIALLY the public sector. How are your energy costs doing by the way? On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:
Hopefully he won't make it, but if, i wanna see him deporting the cheap labor force while putting a 20% tarrif on imports and see how that works out for fixing inflation.
That'd be great. The past millions of jobs have net gone to immigrants, with jobs stagnant and being lost for natives. The government net loses money also, when it creates its makework BS jobs, because they don't come with enough growth to pay back their own cost in the debt the US takes to make them. For example the IRA spent $369 billion to "create" 300k jobs, meaning a million and a quarter per job. Thanks OBiden. The "Trump at least is not a warmonger" narrative, lovin' it. And finally the cleaning, harvest helper and other not so desirable jobs are available to true Americans. Thank the Donald.
Erase the "at least" and you've arrived at the truth.
Excuse me that I don't consider the cost of German energy to be worth Ukrainian and Russian lives. You should have built some nuclear plants. Nor am I moved by the Democratic Party's need to rely on cheap and illegal foreign labor, to work as maids and tomato pickers, as somehow propping up the entire western system that you rely on for energy, either. The fact that a job is not personally desirable to you doesn't mean American citizens don't want employment, or that therefore the Democrats need to import ethnic minorities to do it for them.
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On November 05 2024 05:01 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 03:39 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 05 2024 03:11 oBlade wrote:On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:On November 05 2024 01:51 WombaT wrote:On November 05 2024 00:54 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 18:40 EnDeR_ wrote:On November 04 2024 18:30 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote:
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian. Like those two grifters are relevant in any way. lol. I thought it was weird, so I checked it out: Given the slightly surprising endorsement, both due to his politics and previous comments about women, Spencer clarified in a phone interview with Newsweek on Saturday morning, "I just want someone who is competent to be in charge so that something can happen, as opposed to demonization of the other side." He also added that: "there's a total absence of policy among the GOP. It's the 'no' party, it's almost nihilistic party," in contrast to how he views the Democrats as, "more competent," "able to be reasonable," and wanting "to govern the whole country." and He continued: "When I put it that way, the choice is very clear. I think Donald Trump and the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement bring nothing but stupidity and chaos." While the dude is completely reprehensible, the criticism is pretty much spot on. I thought this would be some low effort confusion trolling attempt, but interesting. I can see his point though, DJT is no posterchild for any ideology you really want to further. He's a clown, obviously very uneducated, a liar and narcissist. I still struggle to understand him having any appeal. I give him charisma, but that's about it. In my opinion calling him Hitler is actually an insult to Adolf. Say what you want about the man, at least he had an ideology and the policies. Edit: What's most worrying to me about the orange man is his irrational long lasting vindictiveness. From Liz Cheney over Obama to the offshore windmills at his golf course in Scotland. He can't let it go. That's also why he hates my country so much: 2 failed Trump Tower projects (Frankfurt and Stuttgart). Fascinating story, attempted money laundering in plain sight but local officials called him out. There’s probably some cafe in Buenos Aires where Hitler has spent the last 8 years frequently fuming about the comparison. Yeah I think you’re bang on there, Trump doesn’t need to himself be a devoted fascist to enable those who are. You allude to it in your post, what I consider probably Trump’s most dangerous attribute as a leader, his seemingly pathological need for absolute loyalty. Not a loyalty to party, country etc, but to him. You then combine that with his seeming lack of ideological convictions, and it’s a rather manipulable combo. All you have to do is placate his ego and hey, you’re somewhat in favour now. I mean consider the following hypothetical, (and no I’m keeping it simple and not adding a million and one caveats), which scenario do you think Trump himself would find preferable?: 1. The GOP as a broad conservative coalition, including influential figures within the tent who are critical of Trump. 2. The GOP pivots further right, to be full-blown Fascist, or in that ballpark but is slavishly loyal to the Donald. As an aside, your point re personal slights is a very well-made one. I feel it’s not quite talked about enough. We’re not even always talking frosty interpersonal relations, or pettiness on minor issues, but quite considerable movement on big foreign policy that maps remarkably well onto ‘what country does Trump have some grudge against?’ The Putin relationship is the perfect example. The US is killing it because of Russia being sanctioned. The subsidies for Ukraine are a joke compared to the net profit the US economy gets becauses of energy prices over the last two years. That lie about the economy being better under Trump pisses me off so much. Using regional wars in order to provoke international sanctions to control energy prices is exactly the foreign policy of the Republican Party of 20 years ago. Some of us hated it. Some were just pretending. I prefer the guy who didn't allow an absurd war. You do not need war to run an economy. To the extent that you set up an economy to run on war, it deserves to suffer from peace until it's corrected, ESPECIALLY the public sector. How are your energy costs doing by the way? On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:
Hopefully he won't make it, but if, i wanna see him deporting the cheap labor force while putting a 20% tarrif on imports and see how that works out for fixing inflation.
That'd be great. The past millions of jobs have net gone to immigrants, with jobs stagnant and being lost for natives. The government net loses money also, when it creates its makework BS jobs, because they don't come with enough growth to pay back their own cost in the debt the US takes to make them. For example the IRA spent $369 billion to "create" 300k jobs, meaning a million and a quarter per job. Thanks OBiden. You seem to be of the mindset that the *only* reward of the $369B spent was creating hundreds of thousands of jobs. That's not true. There was so much more. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Inflation-Reduction-Act-Guidebook.pdf Page 4 has the enormous table of contents. You seem more familiar than me - I don't have time to read all 180 pages at the moment - What's the approximate value of everything that was created besides the jobs? Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 03:43 r00ty wrote:On November 05 2024 03:11 oBlade wrote:On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:On November 05 2024 01:51 WombaT wrote:On November 05 2024 00:54 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 18:40 EnDeR_ wrote:On November 04 2024 18:30 r00ty wrote:On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote:
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian. Like those two grifters are relevant in any way. lol. I thought it was weird, so I checked it out: Given the slightly surprising endorsement, both due to his politics and previous comments about women, Spencer clarified in a phone interview with Newsweek on Saturday morning, "I just want someone who is competent to be in charge so that something can happen, as opposed to demonization of the other side." He also added that: "there's a total absence of policy among the GOP. It's the 'no' party, it's almost nihilistic party," in contrast to how he views the Democrats as, "more competent," "able to be reasonable," and wanting "to govern the whole country." and He continued: "When I put it that way, the choice is very clear. I think Donald Trump and the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement bring nothing but stupidity and chaos." While the dude is completely reprehensible, the criticism is pretty much spot on. I thought this would be some low effort confusion trolling attempt, but interesting. I can see his point though, DJT is no posterchild for any ideology you really want to further. He's a clown, obviously very uneducated, a liar and narcissist. I still struggle to understand him having any appeal. I give him charisma, but that's about it. In my opinion calling him Hitler is actually an insult to Adolf. Say what you want about the man, at least he had an ideology and the policies. Edit: What's most worrying to me about the orange man is his irrational long lasting vindictiveness. From Liz Cheney over Obama to the offshore windmills at his golf course in Scotland. He can't let it go. That's also why he hates my country so much: 2 failed Trump Tower projects (Frankfurt and Stuttgart). Fascinating story, attempted money laundering in plain sight but local officials called him out. There’s probably some cafe in Buenos Aires where Hitler has spent the last 8 years frequently fuming about the comparison. Yeah I think you’re bang on there, Trump doesn’t need to himself be a devoted fascist to enable those who are. You allude to it in your post, what I consider probably Trump’s most dangerous attribute as a leader, his seemingly pathological need for absolute loyalty. Not a loyalty to party, country etc, but to him. You then combine that with his seeming lack of ideological convictions, and it’s a rather manipulable combo. All you have to do is placate his ego and hey, you’re somewhat in favour now. I mean consider the following hypothetical, (and no I’m keeping it simple and not adding a million and one caveats), which scenario do you think Trump himself would find preferable?: 1. The GOP as a broad conservative coalition, including influential figures within the tent who are critical of Trump. 2. The GOP pivots further right, to be full-blown Fascist, or in that ballpark but is slavishly loyal to the Donald. As an aside, your point re personal slights is a very well-made one. I feel it’s not quite talked about enough. We’re not even always talking frosty interpersonal relations, or pettiness on minor issues, but quite considerable movement on big foreign policy that maps remarkably well onto ‘what country does Trump have some grudge against?’ The Putin relationship is the perfect example. The US is killing it because of Russia being sanctioned. The subsidies for Ukraine are a joke compared to the net profit the US economy gets becauses of energy prices over the last two years. That lie about the economy being better under Trump pisses me off so much. Using regional wars in order to provoke international sanctions to control energy prices is exactly the foreign policy of the Republican Party of 20 years ago. Some of us hated it. Some were just pretending. I prefer the guy who didn't allow an absurd war. You do not need war to run an economy. To the extent that you set up an economy to run on war, it deserves to suffer from peace until it's corrected, ESPECIALLY the public sector. How are your energy costs doing by the way? On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:
Hopefully he won't make it, but if, i wanna see him deporting the cheap labor force while putting a 20% tarrif on imports and see how that works out for fixing inflation.
That'd be great. The past millions of jobs have net gone to immigrants, with jobs stagnant and being lost for natives. The government net loses money also, when it creates its makework BS jobs, because they don't come with enough growth to pay back their own cost in the debt the US takes to make them. For example the IRA spent $369 billion to "create" 300k jobs, meaning a million and a quarter per job. Thanks OBiden. The "Trump at least is not a warmonger" narrative, lovin' it. And finally the cleaning, harvest helper and other not so desirable jobs are available to true Americans. Thank the Donald. Erase the "at least" and you've arrived at the truth. Excuse me that I don't consider the cost of German energy to be worth Ukrainian and Russian lives. You should have built some nuclear plants. Nor am I moved by the Democratic Party's need to rely on cheap and illegal foreign labor, to work as maids and tomato pickers, as somehow propping up the entire western system that you rely on for energy, either. The fact that a job is not personally desirable to you doesn't mean American citizens don't want employment, or that therefore the Democrats need to import ethnic minorities to do it for them.
Dude. You have no clue what you are talking about. German energy would be way cheaper if the war was over, and even cheaper if we traded normally with Russia. You act as if German energy is cheaper due to the war, when the absolute opposite is true. German energy is expensive because we support Ukraine in their war against an oppressive invader.
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On November 05 2024 03:40 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 01:50 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 05 2024 01:44 FlaShFTW wrote:Here's my final 2024 prediction map. The key: Light shade = <2%, Medium Shade = 2-5%, and Dark shade = >5%. I'm going to choose to believe the Selzer poll, but not entirely. I think Trump is going to outperform the remaining undecided voter there and it's going to be another Bush vs Kerry 2004 incident where Kerry barely lost the state. I think this will also signal other states like NC and GA that they will fall for Harris, which I predict will roughly be +1.5% Harris when all is said and done. Some other notables, the Selzer poll also would signal some more competitive races in Florida and Texas, which I expect to become closer this year than previous years, with both predicted to be +4% Trump. Rust Belt should go to Harris +3% or so. Nevada and Arizona are on the cusp at around 2%. Bellweathers for tomorrow: Virginia. I fully expect Harris to win this state by over 5 points, and an early call like in 2020 is going to be good news for her. Anything after 8-9pm ET, and Harris is going to be in for a long night. Also pay special attention to Ohio. Trump won the state +9 in 2020, but more polls have shown him around only +6-7 points. While I do expect Ohio to be called early, I think it's worth looking at the state for some bellweather forecast on the Rust Belt. That's a more optimistic result than I thought, but I'd love to see that Will you be providing your traditional coverage tomorrow night too? Of course. I have to live up to TL's Election Coverage/Decision Desk. I'll also be streaming it and I'll post a link tomorrow when I go live. Here's hoping for an early night and we'll see which will be my alcohol of choice for tomorrow.
I look forward to your coverage again!
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On November 05 2024 04:56 Mohdoo wrote:
I wasn't giving much credit to the "boomer women redemption arc" meme, but I had an interesting conversation with my mother in law that helped me understand why it might be true. My mother in law is your typical rural Democrat. She holds conservative views on many topics and is against a lot of things we associate with "the squad" and whatnot. I could imagine her voting for Romney pretty easily.
She has been staying with us for a couple days and we discussed the election last night. She's generally pretty measured/mild about political issues and isn't what I would describe as loud. A switch flipped when she was talking about abortion and suddenly she was impassioned and provided deep descriptions of why the current republican stance on abortion is absolutely abhorrent and beyond forgiveness.
During our discussion, she highlighted a detail I had not considered when assessing whether the "boomer women redemption arc" theory had merit: Boomer women have clear memories of tragedies from the times before abortion was legal. For them, the reasons for protecting abortion access rights were so clear that they never considered those rights would ever be taken away. Not sure how to quite describe the shift in her tone and whatnot, but the gist of it is that taking away those rights is unthinkable and unforgivable to her. I think even if she hated everything about Harris, she would have still voted for Harris purely because of abortion rights. She basically viewed it as outlawing electricity.
The same-ish thing struck me after listening to the latest Run-up episode concerning younger people and the election ("Tailgating in Wisconsin With the Bros Trump Needs"). For almost all the young women they talked to, reproductive rights was their main concern. Not that the overall point is that surprising, but personally I hadn't expected them to be that... consistently aligned on it being that defining
For reference: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/podcasts/tailgating-in-wisconsin-with-the-bros-trump-needs.html
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On November 05 2024 03:40 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 01:50 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 05 2024 01:44 FlaShFTW wrote:Here's my final 2024 prediction map. The key: Light shade = <2%, Medium Shade = 2-5%, and Dark shade = >5%. I'm going to choose to believe the Selzer poll, but not entirely. I think Trump is going to outperform the remaining undecided voter there and it's going to be another Bush vs Kerry 2004 incident where Kerry barely lost the state. I think this will also signal other states like NC and GA that they will fall for Harris, which I predict will roughly be +1.5% Harris when all is said and done. Some other notables, the Selzer poll also would signal some more competitive races in Florida and Texas, which I expect to become closer this year than previous years, with both predicted to be +4% Trump. Rust Belt should go to Harris +3% or so. Nevada and Arizona are on the cusp at around 2%. Bellweathers for tomorrow: Virginia. I fully expect Harris to win this state by over 5 points, and an early call like in 2020 is going to be good news for her. Anything after 8-9pm ET, and Harris is going to be in for a long night. Also pay special attention to Ohio. Trump won the state +9 in 2020, but more polls have shown him around only +6-7 points. While I do expect Ohio to be called early, I think it's worth looking at the state for some bellweather forecast on the Rust Belt. That's a more optimistic result than I thought, but I'd love to see that Will you be providing your traditional coverage tomorrow night too? Of course. I have to live up to TL's Election Coverage/Decision Desk. I'll also be streaming it and I'll post a link tomorrow when I go live. Here's hoping for an early night and we'll see which will be my alcohol of choice for tomorrow.
really looking forward to this. thank you for doing it.
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Norway28689 Posts
On November 05 2024 05:24 blomsterjohn wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 04:56 Mohdoo wrote:
I wasn't giving much credit to the "boomer women redemption arc" meme, but I had an interesting conversation with my mother in law that helped me understand why it might be true. My mother in law is your typical rural Democrat. She holds conservative views on many topics and is against a lot of things we associate with "the squad" and whatnot. I could imagine her voting for Romney pretty easily.
She has been staying with us for a couple days and we discussed the election last night. She's generally pretty measured/mild about political issues and isn't what I would describe as loud. A switch flipped when she was talking about abortion and suddenly she was impassioned and provided deep descriptions of why the current republican stance on abortion is absolutely abhorrent and beyond forgiveness.
During our discussion, she highlighted a detail I had not considered when assessing whether the "boomer women redemption arc" theory had merit: Boomer women have clear memories of tragedies from the times before abortion was legal. For them, the reasons for protecting abortion access rights were so clear that they never considered those rights would ever be taken away. Not sure how to quite describe the shift in her tone and whatnot, but the gist of it is that taking away those rights is unthinkable and unforgivable to her. I think even if she hated everything about Harris, she would have still voted for Harris purely because of abortion rights. She basically viewed it as outlawing electricity. The same-ish thing struck me after listening to the latest Run-up episode concerning younger people and the election ("Tailgating in Wisconsin With the Bros Trump Needs"). For almost all the young women they talked to, reproductive rights was their main concern. Not that the overall point is that surprising, but personally I hadn't expected them to be that... consistently aligned on it being that defining For reference: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/podcasts/tailgating-in-wisconsin-with-the-bros-trump-needs.html
I mean if conservative men manage to turn abortion into a topic of such importance that it turns them into single issue voters then imagine how important it is to people who are actually directly affected.
I've been polling my students too, and the gender gap is real lol. Small sample size obviously but class entirely consisting of male high school students are going 75% Trump while class consisting entirely of female high school students are going 100% Harris (these are vocational studies - carpenters and hair dressers, if you're curious why). That's in Norway but like, something has happened. There was always a male/female political divide but it has widened a gigaton lately.
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On November 05 2024 05:50 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 05:24 blomsterjohn wrote:On November 05 2024 04:56 Mohdoo wrote:
I wasn't giving much credit to the "boomer women redemption arc" meme, but I had an interesting conversation with my mother in law that helped me understand why it might be true. My mother in law is your typical rural Democrat. She holds conservative views on many topics and is against a lot of things we associate with "the squad" and whatnot. I could imagine her voting for Romney pretty easily.
She has been staying with us for a couple days and we discussed the election last night. She's generally pretty measured/mild about political issues and isn't what I would describe as loud. A switch flipped when she was talking about abortion and suddenly she was impassioned and provided deep descriptions of why the current republican stance on abortion is absolutely abhorrent and beyond forgiveness.
During our discussion, she highlighted a detail I had not considered when assessing whether the "boomer women redemption arc" theory had merit: Boomer women have clear memories of tragedies from the times before abortion was legal. For them, the reasons for protecting abortion access rights were so clear that they never considered those rights would ever be taken away. Not sure how to quite describe the shift in her tone and whatnot, but the gist of it is that taking away those rights is unthinkable and unforgivable to her. I think even if she hated everything about Harris, she would have still voted for Harris purely because of abortion rights. She basically viewed it as outlawing electricity. The same-ish thing struck me after listening to the latest Run-up episode concerning younger people and the election ("Tailgating in Wisconsin With the Bros Trump Needs"). For almost all the young women they talked to, reproductive rights was their main concern. Not that the overall point is that surprising, but personally I hadn't expected them to be that... consistently aligned on it being that defining For reference: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/podcasts/tailgating-in-wisconsin-with-the-bros-trump-needs.html I mean if conservative men manage to turn abortion into a topic of such importance that it turns them into single issue voters then imagine how important it is to people who are actually directly affected. I've been polling my students too, and the gender gap is real lol. Small sample size obviously but class entirely consisting of male high school students are going 75% Trump while class consisting entirely of female high school students are going 100% Harris (these are vocational studies - carpenters and hair dressers, if you're curious why). That's in Norway but like, something has happened. There was always a male/female political divide but it has widened a gigaton lately.
Yeah in "retrospect" it makes complete logical sense, which makes tomorrow all the more interesting (and nerve-wracking)!
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On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:
Hopefully he won't make it, but if, i wanna see him deporting the cheap labor force while putting a 20% tarrif on imports and see how that works out for fixing inflation.
I don't think he's gonna do either of those things, more likely some symbolic watered down versions. But same, I wish I could observe an alternate reality in which his economically illiterate supporters would get exactly what they think they want.
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Northern Ireland25664 Posts
On November 05 2024 06:37 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 02:41 r00ty wrote:
Hopefully he won't make it, but if, i wanna see him deporting the cheap labor force while putting a 20% tarrif on imports and see how that works out for fixing inflation.
I don't think he's gonna do either of those things, more likely some symbolic watered down versions. But same, I wish I could observe an alternate reality in which his economically illiterate supporters would get exactly what they think they want.
Believe me, while it can be fun to bask in the smugness of being correct, the downsides of policies roundly fucking things up do rather outweigh that
Today’s obligatory Brexit mention quota hit anyway
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On November 05 2024 03:02 Falling wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2024 20:25 Razyda wrote:Actually genuine question: Do you guys have any values, which you are not ready to drop in an instant, if DNC Services Corporation will tell you too? At this point I am sure you didnt jump out of joy on Putin Kamala endorsement, is because you wouldn't be able to complain about Russian election interference. On November 04 2024 19:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote:
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. She also picked up a last minute endorsement from Harrison Ford, who is famous for beating up Nazis Also, how bad a candidate does white supremacist Donald Trump need to be, for one of his own white supremacist followers to eventually decide to support a biracial woman who actually condemns white supremacy lmao. bolded - That's miserable spin on that. Much simpler read of this is "White supremacist decided that Kamala is better for White supremacists" On more of a funny note, recent Kamala add: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/dem-nsfw-ad-stirs-debate-painting-gop-as-extreme-on-porn-censorship/articleshow/114661258.cmsessentially reads "wankers will be worse of under Trump", not sure if this means the same in US, as in UK, but it doesn't exactly seems like a message Democrats want to send out. No. This is a dumb take. It's dumb when the Liberals try to do this with my party up in Canada. It's dumb if Democrats did it with run of the mill Republicans like Bush, McCain, or Romney, and it's dumb to try and do it now. I can't remember if I've put in this argument before or if like so many, I've written and then deleted it rather than posting.
edit. And actually I did. I'll just repost it as the argument is entirely applicable. This was me writing in defence of the Trucker protest, by the way.Show nested quote +On May 11 2024 03:28 Falling wrote: while still positing "Hey isn't it odd that the economic terrorism that they're committing for some reason attracts nazis and racists?" Because thats what people who can use their own critical thinking to decide what they think about a situation do Welp. By using that same standard, the pro-Palestine movement is also Nazi sympathetic. 2021 Ontario pro-Palestine protest also flew the Swastika https://twitter.com/bnaibrithcanada/status/1393778246140014600?s=20Isn't it odd that for some reason the movement attracts Nazis and racists? Kinda makes a fella wonder. Ontario again... maybe it was the same guy... Surprise, surprise Nazi sympathizers are also not terribly supportive of Israel... unless it means deporting all Jews to it. But this is faulty guilty by association thinking. Group A thinks B You think B Therefore you are Group A. This gets trotted out in the immigration debate. Canada has in the last decade increased their immigration numbers substantially to around 500,000 per year. If you dare to voice (in the realm of politics) the idea of turning down that number to say, 2015 numbers or earlier, suddenly you are hit with a racism charge because racists also want less immigrants in the country... because apparently there are no other reasons to want to roll back immigration to a smaller number. And of course you will get some money quote from a racist organization, signing off on whichever party wants to lower immigration because of course they would support any party that would do so. So then "Isn't it odd that for some reason your lower immigration policy attracts racists and Nazis." Kinda makes a fella wonder. But maybe that example doesn't truly demonstrate the ridiculousness of this line of reasoning if you've become too entrenched along particular ideological battle lines. So here's another: The Nazis hated impressionistic art and lauded romantic realism. You hate impressionistic art and prefer romantic realism. You are a Nazi. The proper formulation would be: Nazis hate impressionistic art and laud romantic realism You are a Nazi Therefore you (likely) hate impressionistic art and laud romantic realism. You cannot simply assume that because one or two despicable individuals are supportive of your movement, ergo the movement is based upon the same foundation that the despicable individual is supporting it. That is, unless it is something truly foundational to that despicable belief system/ organization, etc. A good policy can be supported by heinous people for heinous reasons but that does not inherently say anything about the goodness or badness of the policy or the motivations of the people in the main, unless there are more direct links.We cannot go after The Beatles because Charles Manson thought Helter Skelter was supportive of his post-apocalyptic race war ideas. Isn't it odd that for some reason the song attracted Nazis and racists? Kinda makes a fella wonder. I defended the Trucker protest against this guilt by association, and I would use the exact same argument to defend the Harris campaign. It's always been a dumb argument unless you can find more direct links of alignment in actions, speech, or belief systems. And it remains a dumb argument to trot out now.
First of all - I fully agree with post you quoted.
Bolded - I think you misread my post somehow? It wasn't directed at Harris campaign (beside add part). It was directed at users of this forum. Now if memory serves right Truckers protest is perfect parallel here. If i remember correctly (correct me if I am wrong) truckers chased away hakenkreuz lads? they didnt went: "dudes are kinda bad, but they see the reason, great that they joined us". This seems to be in stark contrast to the reaction of quite few members of this forum.
If you meant my answer to DPB it was merely absurd counterpoint to equally absurd point DPB was making.
PS. Also kudos for defending truckers, as I recall it was rather toxic subject on this forum.
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Canada11363 Posts
This seems to be in stark contrast to the reaction of quite few members of this forum.
I think there was a fair amount of irony or else general dismissal of the endorsement from those posters. Basically, I interpreted all of that to mean the endorsements were meaningless and that any attempt to create meaning of it was absurd on its face and they weren't giving it the time of day.
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Northern Ireland25664 Posts
On November 05 2024 05:50 Liquid`Drone wrote:Show nested quote +On November 05 2024 05:24 blomsterjohn wrote:On November 05 2024 04:56 Mohdoo wrote:
I wasn't giving much credit to the "boomer women redemption arc" meme, but I had an interesting conversation with my mother in law that helped me understand why it might be true. My mother in law is your typical rural Democrat. She holds conservative views on many topics and is against a lot of things we associate with "the squad" and whatnot. I could imagine her voting for Romney pretty easily.
She has been staying with us for a couple days and we discussed the election last night. She's generally pretty measured/mild about political issues and isn't what I would describe as loud. A switch flipped when she was talking about abortion and suddenly she was impassioned and provided deep descriptions of why the current republican stance on abortion is absolutely abhorrent and beyond forgiveness.
During our discussion, she highlighted a detail I had not considered when assessing whether the "boomer women redemption arc" theory had merit: Boomer women have clear memories of tragedies from the times before abortion was legal. For them, the reasons for protecting abortion access rights were so clear that they never considered those rights would ever be taken away. Not sure how to quite describe the shift in her tone and whatnot, but the gist of it is that taking away those rights is unthinkable and unforgivable to her. I think even if she hated everything about Harris, she would have still voted for Harris purely because of abortion rights. She basically viewed it as outlawing electricity. The same-ish thing struck me after listening to the latest Run-up episode concerning younger people and the election ("Tailgating in Wisconsin With the Bros Trump Needs"). For almost all the young women they talked to, reproductive rights was their main concern. Not that the overall point is that surprising, but personally I hadn't expected them to be that... consistently aligned on it being that defining For reference: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/02/podcasts/tailgating-in-wisconsin-with-the-bros-trump-needs.html I mean if conservative men manage to turn abortion into a topic of such importance that it turns them into single issue voters then imagine how important it is to people who are actually directly affected. I've been polling my students too, and the gender gap is real lol. Small sample size obviously but class entirely consisting of male high school students are going 75% Trump while class consisting entirely of female high school students are going 100% Harris (these are vocational studies - carpenters and hair dressers, if you're curious why). That's in Norway but like, something has happened. There was always a male/female political divide but it has widened a gigaton lately.
Interesting, I wonder if it’s part of some backlash against the so-called ‘war on boys/men?’
Did you just straw poll folks or did you get any of their rationales?
Even amongst the politics/current affairs nerds in my peer group (ok well, me) at that sorta age, even til a fair bit older, just by virtue of the platforms or the time perhaps, politics in general, much less gender politics did permeate down nearly as much into daily culture.
I mean the whole media ecosystem is vastly, vastly different from my generation (I’m 35), to my sister’s (19), never mind my 11 year old Minibat. Whereas sure, some of the mechanics or the gizmos differed, I don’t think my formative years were all that different in that space to my father who had 29 years on me.
My personal vague hypothesis is that you take the already confusing time of adolescence, then you add the extra confusion of certain reframing of expectations (that actually may clash with expectations in reality). So you end up with deeply confused, disenchanted young men who seek certain clarity elsewhere.
I think a lot of the appeal of a Trump, or perhaps more specifically is that ‘I’m tired of being told I’m toxic, I’m trying my best, may as well jump in with the folks who tell me I’m fine’
I could ramble on but I think the vague point is clear enough.
As a caveat, I also absolutely think it’s a positive thing to have these conversations and be a better, more egalitarian culture. But frankly some people just aren’t very good at having them, and indeed may be actively counter-productive.
I still have conversations in this specific domain that end up with me genuinely frustrated thru angry, but I’m a semi-reasonably emotionally-regulated adult who formed many of my core beliefs in another time. So I’ve got a sort of ‘hey this person is an arsehole, my beliefs transcend this interaction’ place to retreat to.
If you haven’t formed those core beliefs yet, and are still searching and you’re getting a ton of hostility (real or perceived), hey I think you end up in various bad places.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/722946752193232968/1303034648678371389/xjDYi17.png?ex=672a4915&is=6728f795&hm=687860fd54eee85bd1a57ff7d8a667e3c2450a469a3744642c00dc7f07ef7316&)
