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On November 04 2024 09:14 Sadist wrote: If they try something like that they ALL need to be charged with sedition or treason.
They may stall 4 more years while Trump-appointed judges attempt to get the charges dismissed a la Aileen Cannon. Then, the cases will get appealed to SCOTUS who will protect these idiots (e.g., Trump) if they think they can get away with it. I just don't have any faith right now that the GOP will ever put the rule of law over party.
edit: But I agree with charging them for the appropriate offenses.
I hope people are going to watch this. Especially those who aren't yet sure who to vote for. This is actually a short video, as DM2525 himself says at the end. To fully cover the entirety of Trump's house of lies and deceit it'd have to be several days long.
It's a video about Trump's completely fake narrative and the many lies being used to craft it. It's about the Jan 6 insurrection, the bombing campaigns of Trump, betrayal of Americans, threats and blackmail, and much more. It begins with the reason why people follow Trump despite all of his actions, and then there's example after example after example of the damage he's done.
Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian.
On November 03 2024 23:37 WombaT wrote: I wonder if we have somewhat developed a skepticism for pollsters based on a few bad calls, they’re generally pretty on the money.
For a while now pollsters have had some pretty weak performances because they're consistently trying to weigh for the previous cycle's errors. Its kinda the same problem UK's pollsters have where they don't want to be wrong again so they try and fix their weights, only to find that the electorate has shifted from under them so they keep having medicore results.
Bad education weights was the reason for 2016, so they did that. Most have no idea what went wrong in 2020 so they're just fixing this by oversampling Trump support and increasing the weights for older, no college education voters.
We've got a horrible picture of 2024 because the lack of funding from news outlets and academic institutions means we're getting fewer and fewer polls and less differences in methodology. I swear half the polls this cycle have been done by Atlas. And a lot of these other polls are obviously herding, just shitting out coin flip result after coin flip result, and some not even bothering to provide a Likely Voter result - they're basically taking a knee. These polls could get close to the election day result and they'd still be bad because current polling should still be showing some variation.
To bring up Selzer again, she isn't going through any of these problems because she doesn't care about voter recall or weights, she just keeps things simple. Its theoretically unsophisticated but her simple argument is that past performance is not indicative of future results. So when she sees high school graduates breaking hard for Trump in 2016, she just tells us that they're breaking hard for him and doesn't try to weigh them down because they're typically low propensity voters.
If Selzer is right again, the polling industry needs to stop using weights like they're doing right now. I can convince myself that other pollsters just aren't capturing the current mood of the electorate - the insane Iowa result is mostly due to women breaking for Harris much more than men are breaking for Trump. Iowa is pretty unique in that the state implemented some pretty restrictive aboriton laws so there's a local reason for Iowan women to vote Harris...but there's similar indications of Trump softness in places like Kansas and Ohio where there's potentially less pressure on pollsters since they're not swing states.
tl;dr
I 100% agree with you. 2022 polls were off as well, because polls underestimated women and how impactful Roe v Wade was going to be. The "red wave" turned into a pretty even split all things considered after the fact. So they were wrong, and they were wrong by a lot.
I'm honestly not certain how to feel about the Selzer poll. Maybe being too jaded by shit polling and polls not understanding how the American electorate actually feels has made me distrust polls. But Selzer is different. I have cautious optimism regarding his methodology and the accuracy of her poll. One key part as well is the undecideds. In 2004, she had Kerry 48-43 Bush. Bush ended up winning by recount margins, at 49-49, which means undecideds broke for h im 6-1 over Kerry. Now, even if the same is true (which I don't think so, I legitimately believes undecideds are going to break for Harris which is why I have her at a 60-40 favorite right now, maybe 70-30 after this poll), let's say Trump wins undecideds by a 6-1 margin like Bush. He's only emerging from that 50-48. +2 win in Iowa is not going to cut it for him across the rest of the country. That means losing the Rust Belt by percentages outside of recount territory. It means states like North Carolina are going to flip blue, and Harris will hold the Sun Belt. It means Texas and Florida are actually in play, with Ohio soon to follow.
I'm going to keep a watchful eye over Iowa. I expect by 10pm ET that we'll have a good idea if Selzer got it right again, or if this is a rare miss.
On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote: Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian.
Like those two grifters are relevant in any way. lol.
On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote: Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer. Said she is the best person to lead the American empire. Not sure whether she has disavowed yet or intends to or is delaying on purpose as a form of dog whistling. Other white supremacist and co-holocaust denier (with Kanye) Nick Fuentes has rejected Drumpf but apparently not gone as far as to endorse Kamala, who is half Indian, probably because it makes him look like a hypocrite for having attacked JD Vance's wife, who is full Indian.
Like those two grifters are relevant in any way. lol.
Given the slightly surprising endorsement, both due to his politics and previous comments about women, Spencer clarified in a phone interview with Newsweek on Saturday morning, "I just want someone who is competent to be in charge so that something can happen, as opposed to demonization of the other side."
He also added that:
"there's a total absence of policy among the GOP. It's the 'no' party, it's almost nihilistic party," in contrast to how he views the Democrats as, "more competent," "able to be reasonable," and wanting "to govern the whole country."
and
He continued: "When I put it that way, the choice is very clear. I think Donald Trump and the MAGA [Make America Great Again] movement bring nothing but stupidity and chaos."
While the dude is completely reprehensible, the criticism is pretty much spot on.
On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote: Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer.
She also picked up a last minute endorsement from Harrison Ford, who is famous for beating up Nazis
Also, how bad a candidate does white supremacist Donald Trump need to be, for one of his own white supremacist followers to eventually decide to support a biracial woman who actually condemns white supremacy lmao.
On November 04 2024 01:45 micronesia wrote: @WombaT
That may be true, but you did say "Trump never tried to rig an election" and when farvacola questions that, you said "trying and succeeding are rather different things."
I think they are different things
Ok let’s say I observe Protoss suck in top level SC2, I may accurately observe that
Can I do anything about it? Well not really
Trump can complain about results as much as he wants, he can’t actually change those results
He can complain as much as he wants, he can direct forces to question electoral legitimacy. Which to me is just, awful let’s not beat around the bush
Again, I think this is actively shit. I just don’t think he can rig an election
I think the general fear here is that Trump can manufacture enough of a case that it ends up before the Supreme Court, HIS Supreme Court.
He's mostly throwing paint at a wall trying to see what sticks, but you have to ask yourself that if January 6th had worked and Pence had not certified the election results or if the Georgia Secretary of State hadn't certified Georgia. If he had thrown enough gunk in the gears of the electoral process if it would have come down to the Supreme Court to decide the outcome of the election like what happened in 2000 between Bush and Gore, that his handpicked and VERY partisan Supreme Court justices would hand him the election.
That's a lot of ifs and it requires the cooperation of a lot of other people. But the scary thing is, we've seen just how far the Republican party is willing to go to back up this crazy shit, it wouldn't take THAT much more for Trump to get his way.
Aye I mean it’s not even a hypothetical, this isn’t our first rodeo.
The GOP backing down from properly censuring him after last time was shameful, fingers crossed it doesn’t come back to bite everyone in the ass.
The system seems rather robust in preventing either party rigging the election, but it doesn’t seem nearly as strong in preventing another coup attempt. Indeed, less secure than last time around.
The only seemingly favourable factor going is that Trump tried it before, so it’s going to be something people are very vigilant in looking out for. I think last time many thought him theoretically capable of it, but him actually going for it perhaps blindsided some
It was basically down to Pence and now the system failed for an eternity to actually go after the initiatiors of the plot and chances are, if Trump wins, it never will.
A system that needs several years to start seriously going after Trump for January 6th is not a good system. It's a system that was scared to do it's job in a sane timeframge out of fear of rustling feathers because garbage people would follow Trump to the end of the world
On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote: Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer.
She also picked up a last minute endorsement from Harrison Ford, who is famous for beating up Nazis
Also, how bad a candidate does white supremacist Donald Trump need to be, for one of his own white supremacist followers to eventually decide to support a biracial woman who actually condemns white supremacy lmao.
On November 04 2024 20:00 Velr wrote: The system seems robust?
It was basically down to Pence and now the system failed for an eternity to actually go after the initiatiors of the plot and chances are, if Trump wins, it never will.
A system that needs several years to start seriously going after Trump for January 6th is not a good system. It's a system that was scared to do it's job in a sane timeframge out of fear of rustling feathers because garbage people would follow Trump to the end of the world
Even if Pence went along with the scheme it’s hardly settled that it would have amounted to anything
Actually genuine question: Do you guys have any values, which you are not ready to drop in an instant, if DNC Services Corporation will tell you too? At this point I am sure you didnt jump out of joy on Putin Kamala endorsement, is because you wouldn't be able to complain about Russian election interference.
On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote: Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer.
She also picked up a last minute endorsement from Harrison Ford, who is famous for beating up Nazis
Also, how bad a candidate does white supremacist Donald Trump need to be, for one of his own white supremacist followers to eventually decide to support a biracial woman who actually condemns white supremacy lmao.
bolded - That's miserable spin on that. Much simpler read of this is "White supremacist decided that Kamala is better for White supremacists"
essentially reads "wankers will be worse of under Trump", not sure if this means the same in US, as in UK, but it doesn't exactly seems like a message Democrats want to send out.
On November 04 2024 20:00 Velr wrote: The system seems robust?
It was basically down to Pence and now the system failed for an eternity to actually go after the initiatiors of the plot and chances are, if Trump wins, it never will.
A system that needs several years to start seriously going after Trump for January 6th is not a good system. It's a system that was scared to do it's job in a sane timeframge out of fear of rustling feathers because garbage people would follow Trump to the end of the world
I mean that’s not the quote, the quote was: ’The system seems rather robust in preventing either party rigging the election, but it doesn’t seem nearly as strong in preventing another coup attempt. Indeed, less secure than last time around.’
Well yes, the system seems rather robust in preventing votes magically disappearing, or appearing. The real classics of fraudulent elections in many a locale.
If we look at most coups in places that run ostensibly free elections, most of them occur by fucking with the election itself, be it in ‘losing’ ballot boxes, intimidation, miscounting etc etc. Of which Georgia is just the latest (that I’m aware of) that has had those kind of problems with an election.
I think the US has the political culture and institutions that most of that stuff is off the table.
Or to put it another way, I don’t think Trump’s posse can magic up an electoral win, if they haven’t won. Or the Democratic Party for that matter.
They can manufacture a win from a loss, through various forms of mechanistic fuckery.
Acknowledging that the US’ elections are pretty solid on a basic mechanistic level doesn’t mean one being complacent on Trump and his proven propensity to try and circumvent the process. Indeed the US having pretty secure elections ceases to be a relevant plus point if you can effectively do some procedural coup regardless
On November 04 2024 20:25 Razyda wrote: Actually genuine question: Do you guys have any values, which you are not ready to drop in an instant, if DNC Services Corporation will tell you too? At this point I am sure you didnt jump out of joy on Putin Kamala endorsement, is because you wouldn't be able to complain about Russian election interference.
On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote: Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer.
She also picked up a last minute endorsement from Harrison Ford, who is famous for beating up Nazis
Also, how bad a candidate does white supremacist Donald Trump need to be, for one of his own white supremacist followers to eventually decide to support a biracial woman who actually condemns white supremacy lmao.
bolded - That's miserable spin on that. Much simpler read of this is "White supremacist decided that Kamala is better for White supremacists"
essentially reads "wankers will be worse of under Trump", not sure if this means the same in US, as in UK, but it doesn't exactly seems like a message Democrats want to send out.
No, none of us have any closely-held values and just jump to whatever the DNC say, especially people like me who live on the other side of the Atlantic
If you spent less time thinking of ‘haha gotchas’ and just engaged with people in a non-adversarial way you might learn something.
Unlike Fuentes, while I find Richard Spencer’s worldview pretty appalling, I do think he has something of a brain on him.
1. I think he recognises that Trump gets a lot more from white supremacists than the other way around, I think he’s broadly correct there.
2. He also recognises, partly because of point 1 that his ethnostate isn’t happening anytime soon. So, that being the case, it’ll be a while until the ‘white master race’ inherits the US. If that’s not happening for the foreseeable, then you gotta just bide your time. If you’re having to delay anyway, well you want the current custodian to mind your ‘birthright’ diligently, if you think Trump is an incompetent administrator, well Harris is still preferable provided you’ve already conceded your ethnostate isn’t happening imminently.
3. There may be an accelerationist angle as well. Give the lefties another 4 years, hope they fail and your message might hit that bit stronger in future. Also you get to detoxify your image by saying ‘hey we’re willing to work with others, look we endorsed Harris!’
Personally I think he’s wrong in some of these calculations, but I think these are the calculations. The US is far, far too diverse and for far too long a time for Pandora’s stuff to be stuck back in the box.
On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote: Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer.
She also picked up a last minute endorsement from Harrison Ford, who is famous for beating up Nazis
Also, how bad a candidate does white supremacist Donald Trump need to be, for one of his own white supremacist followers to eventually decide to support a biracial woman who actually condemns white supremacy lmao.
Must be a pretty poor white supremacist, I agree.
I think you need to read EnDeR_'s article for why Trump did not receive that endorsement from Spencer. It's because Spencer believes that Trump is a moron with no policies, not because Trump isn't racist enough.
On November 04 2024 16:37 oBlade wrote: Kamala picked up a last minute endorsement from noted white supremacist Richard Spencer.
She also picked up a last minute endorsement from Harrison Ford, who is famous for beating up Nazis
Also, how bad a candidate does white supremacist Donald Trump need to be, for one of his own white supremacist followers to eventually decide to support a biracial woman who actually condemns white supremacy lmao.
bolded - That's miserable spin on that. Much simpler read of this is "White supremacist decided that Kamala is better for White supremacists"
Swing and a miss. See above.
This is a deeply unserious topic. Oh no, only 99% of white supremacists back Trump, whereas 1% of them think he's too dumb to function so they're backing Harris instead. I guess Trump and Harris are now both equally terrible! Please.
Your girl now has the endorsement of Dick Cheney, Putin, Richard Spencer, I could go on. It's not a big deal, you can vote for her anyway just have to own it.
On November 04 2024 20:59 oBlade wrote: Your girl now has the endorsement of Dick Cheney, Putin, Richard Spencer, I could go on. It's not a big deal, you can vote for her anyway just have to own it.
? I'm voting for Harris because of Harris and what she'll do for America, and I'm not voting for Trump because of Trump and what he'd do to America. If you want to vote for someone because of who else is voting for them, then go for it.
EPT
