Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!
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On February 20 2022 23:09 Sent. wrote: That's a terrible idea. It would force the West to choose between having to border an unstable country with nuclear weapons and allowing Russia to forcefully get that country back in its sphere of influence. Don't think there's a single NATO member that would prefer the former.
Yea, in case of nukes it looks more like an escalation rather than de-escalation. Even though nukes are expensive - such tech prevents full scale war possibility, in other words by paying for nukes we won't have to eventually pay for deaths of many military/civillians from both sides and will prevent huge social crisis. On paper it does not look like a bad thing to do (very expensive insurance), on the other hand it's better not to have a war, thus not having a need to develop a nuke purely for economic/social-development/political reasons. I'm not an expert on the topic, so no idea what is the correct answer, plus it's just some reports on the initial speech, nothing complicated so far it seems
Crossing my fingers for the best and peace
At the time of the Budapest memorandum, Ukraine had nukes (Sovjet ones), and decided to get rid of them.
Now Ukraine doesn't have nukes, nor any of the technology to build them, nor probably a lot of the know-how required to do so. The cost to develop nuclear technology from basically scratch is massive. But more problematic for Ukraine is that it doesn't have any way to get the centrifuges it needs, with both the west and Russia heavily opposed to Ukraine making nukes. It's an interesting bluff, but if Ukraine actually tries that course, it'll get wrecked from both sides.
Having nukes is a big deterrent from war. Having nukes "in development" is an incentive from anyone around to stop the development.
Russia's Aeronautical Information Center issued a NOTAM (a Notice to Airmen) on Sunday which will close most of the airspace over the Sea of Azov starting at midnight between Sunday and Monday.
What wonders me is why kremlin decided to announce evacuation of the citizens of l/dnr to Rostov today (video of the announcement was recorded 2 days prior according to metadata), like what is the logic behind that? But that's only for woman, children and the old people, meanwhile forcefully enlisting man on the streets. It reminds me the same tactics soviets used during their early days, this is something insane
On February 21 2022 03:30 Dav1oN wrote: What wonders me is why kremlin decided to announce evacuation of the citizens of l/dnr to Rostov today (video of the announcement was recorded 2 days prior according to metadata), like what is the logic behind that? But that's only for woman, children and the old people, meanwhile forcefully enlisting man on the streets. It reminds me the same tactics soviets used during their early days, this is something insane
This is my own interpretation: 1. Russia waited for Olympic Games to end to avoid upsetting China, their ally. 2. Russia "evacuates" people from occupied territory of Ukraine to "free" the terrain for army to come in and to have an excuse that civilians are spared. 3. What a surprise, military drills are extended... attack orders are given 4. Disaster
Also US indicating war "imminent" for the last few days looks to me like they carry out reverse psychology on Russia. Will that work? We'll see.
Honestly, I'm glad Bulgaria isn't in Russia's immediate sphere of influence like it was during Soviet times. F*ck Kremlin and their propaganda, thought police and so on. It's still the same old Soviet Russia inside Kremlin.
John Oliver / LWT just came out with a pretty good video elucidating both Critical Race Theory and the conservative misrepresentation of CRT, and we're going to hear a lot more about it during the midterm elections, the next presidential election, and if we follow anything related to schools.
On February 21 2022 03:30 Dav1oN wrote: What wonders me is why kremlin decided to announce evacuation of the citizens of l/dnr to Rostov today (video of the announcement was recorded 2 days prior according to metadata), like what is the logic behind that? But that's only for woman, children and the old people, meanwhile forcefully enlisting man on the streets. It reminds me the same tactics soviets used during their early days, this is something insane
I don’t know about the sources saying that the evacuations started yesterday. But I’ve been reading pro-Kiev and pro-DNR sources mentioning the evacuations of their respective civilians from the contact lines since last Thursday at least. Again, don’t know the scale but each side is preparing to get shelled and attacked. I haven’t seen anything about anyone being forced to enlist in any case. Whoever wants to fight will be given a gun and some kind of re-training. Volunteers are coming in from Russia again which is imo ‘bigger news’.
There is no easy way out of this situation. The elites running Kiev now have their money in foreign bank accounts, their children safe in Western countries, leaving them free to do everything in their power to stay in power to the detriment of the people of Ukraine. They are more than ready to use the country to poke and prod Russia whenever their benefactors tell them to. The DNR and LNR on the other hand, are a shit show run now by warlords and war profiteers that cannot keep an economy being shelled every day afloat. They were unsustainable as real countries 8 years ago, and they still are now. The only competent arm being the military, but even that is outnumbered 3 to 1.
The third player, Russia is playing a game of chicken with NATO. It doesn’t even matter who started it they should have known not to bite the bait and now they have a choice between getting reamed a little, or getting reamed a lot. The Kiev government has backtracked on everything related to what their past government signed during Minsk 2. They don’t want to change the constitution; they don’t want to do anything that could make them lose in their polls so my thought is that the ideal get out of jail free card for them is to force Russia into recognizing the DNR and LNR.
That way they don’t lose face in front of their voters because they didn’t come to an agreement or negotiate a peace with Donetsk. And they have an out because ‘what can you do when Russian troops enter DNR and LNR’. I don’t think anyone in Kiev has any illusions that they can be reincorporated back without a mass exodus of the native population, and the elites only care about the money they can make if the problem goes away. Though it is easier to syphon money away during a crisis.
Russia will take a hit to its economy (again), but look, they can spin it as a victory at the end of the day. Still a loss imo. The only winners here are the US, its been that way since the collapse of Ukraine caused by Euromaiden and they are more than happy to keep everyone in the area unhappy.
Meh, longer post than I intended. Not that it matters much when it will get one-line low effort answers ‘lol putin bot lol’. Sigh, its just so sad to see the Ukraine problem at the same place it was eight years ago. And that’s the same problem most of the former communist bloc has: greedy, corrupt politicians.
On February 22 2022 04:01 maybenexttime wrote: You're so thoroughly brainwashed. ;-)
Yeah, it is quite impressive how you can look at Ukraine and get any impression except "Russia is fucking that country up". Ukraine hasn't "collapsed because of Euromaidan", it has a war being waged upon by Russia. Russia has at this point already annexed part of the country, turned another part into "independent" states with suspicious amounts of russian weapons, and is currently building up troops on the border again.
If you are sad about the state of Ukraine, be angry at Putin. Without russian imperialistic bullshit the country would almost certainly still not be perfect, but way better off.
On February 22 2022 04:01 maybenexttime wrote: You're so thoroughly brainwashed. ;-)
I mean if anything it’s interesting to read someone who probably represents what the russians are thinking. It’s true that from my point of view it’s a rather baroque train of thought but that’s probably the pro-Kremlin’s justifications.
On February 22 2022 04:01 maybenexttime wrote: You're so thoroughly brainwashed. ;-)
Yeah, it is quite impressive how you can look at Ukraine and get any impression except "Russia is fucking that country up". Ukraine hasn't "collapsed because of Euromaidan", it has a war being waged upon by Russia. Russia has at this point already annexed part of the country, turned another part into "independent" states with suspicious amounts of russian weapons, and is currently building up troops on the border again.
If you are sad about the state of Ukraine, be angry at Putin. Without russian imperialistic bullshit the country would almost certainly still not be perfect, but way better off.
The origin of all conflict inside the Ukraine currently is without a doubt Euromaidan. However much this fact might inconvenience your narrative, it doesn’t change what happened or why eight years later the Ukraine is in the position it is in. The act of a street mob overthrowing democratically elected judicial, legislative and executive authorities, authorities that half the country thought were better than the authorities the other half had in mind; was always going to end in a drastic manner.
However much you are told you are right while holding a torch in a mob. Overthrowing democratically elected officials and installing unelected people with shady backgrounds hell bent on abusing their power to the detriment of a large part of the population (and for personal financial gain), will cause a reaction from that population.
Would Crimea still be a part of Ukraine if there was no street mob overthrowing the government in Kiev? Yes it would. Would there be a war? No. Would everyone in Ukraine be better off acting like Finland and not do anything stupid like openly antagonizing a nuclear power next door? Yes, they would be doing much today without any pro-west or pro-east politicians profiting from selling out their country to foreign interests. Pro-all people living inside Ukraine is not such a radical idea.
On February 22 2022 04:01 maybenexttime wrote: You're so thoroughly brainwashed. ;-)
Yeah, it is quite impressive how you can look at Ukraine and get any impression except "Russia is fucking that country up". Ukraine hasn't "collapsed because of Euromaidan", it has a war being waged upon by Russia. Russia has at this point already annexed part of the country, turned another part into "independent" states with suspicious amounts of russian weapons, and is currently building up troops on the border again.
If you are sad about the state of Ukraine, be angry at Putin. Without russian imperialistic bullshit the country would almost certainly still not be perfect, but way better off.
The origin of all conflict inside the Ukraine currently is without a doubt Euromaidan. However much this fact might inconvenience your narrative, it doesn’t change what happened or why eight years later the Ukraine is in the position it is in. The act of a street mob overthrowing democratically elected judicial, legislative and executive authorities, authorities that half the country thought were better than the authorities the other half had in mind; was always going to end in a drastic manner.
However much you are told you are right while holding a torch in a mob. Overthrowing democratically elected officials and installing unelected people with shady backgrounds hell bent on abusing their power to the detriment of a large part of the population (and for personal financial gain), will cause a reaction from that population.
Would Crimea still be a part of Ukraine if there was no street mob overthrowing the government in Kiev? Yes it would. Would there be a war? No. Would everyone in Ukraine be better off acting like Finland and not do anything stupid like openly antagonizing a nuclear power next door? Yes, they would be doing much today without any pro-west or pro-east politicians profiting from selling out their country to foreign interests. Pro-all people living inside Ukraine is not such a radical idea.
The origin of all conflicts inside Ukraine is in kremlin, stop spreading your bullshit
Apparently Russia is recognizing two regions in Ukraine, and the US is preparing sanctions for those regions. I hear the UK is as well.
Im kind of following this but mostly dont have any particular opinions about whats happening because fuck if I know what Luhansk of Donetsk are, nor do I know their significance or what it might mean for the prospective of invasion, but my first thought is probably leaning more towards excuse-for-invasion?
President Joe Biden plans to impose new sanctions on trade and financing in the two pro-Moscow territories in Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to recognize as independent on Monday.
In a statement, the White House said Biden would sign an executive order that would "prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by US persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine."
On February 22 2022 04:01 maybenexttime wrote: You're so thoroughly brainwashed. ;-)
Yeah, it is quite impressive how you can look at Ukraine and get any impression except "Russia is fucking that country up". Ukraine hasn't "collapsed because of Euromaidan", it has a war being waged upon by Russia. Russia has at this point already annexed part of the country, turned another part into "independent" states with suspicious amounts of russian weapons, and is currently building up troops on the border again.
If you are sad about the state of Ukraine, be angry at Putin. Without russian imperialistic bullshit the country would almost certainly still not be perfect, but way better off.
The origin of all conflict inside the Ukraine currently is without a doubt Euromaidan. However much this fact might inconvenience your narrative, it doesn’t change what happened or why eight years later the Ukraine is in the position it is in. The act of a street mob overthrowing democratically elected judicial, legislative and executive authorities, authorities that half the country thought were better than the authorities the other half had in mind; was always going to end in a drastic manner.
However much you are told you are right while holding a torch in a mob. Overthrowing democratically elected officials and installing unelected people with shady backgrounds hell bent on abusing their power to the detriment of a large part of the population (and for personal financial gain), will cause a reaction from that population.
Would Crimea still be a part of Ukraine if there was no street mob overthrowing the government in Kiev? Yes it would. Would there be a war? No. Would everyone in Ukraine be better off acting like Finland and not do anything stupid like openly antagonizing a nuclear power next door? Yes, they would be doing much today without any pro-west or pro-east politicians profiting from selling out their country to foreign interests. Pro-all people living inside Ukraine is not such a radical idea.
Ukraine and Finland are very different countries with very different relationships and histories with Russia and I find it very ignorant to claim that Ukraine could just act like Finland (or if someone vice versa asked us to act like Ukraine).
Finland at most would be a geographical buffer zone with very little significance economically or culturally to modern Russia. Ukraine on the other hand has much more recent history of Russian rule and also happens to be a key gateway for transit of Russian goods (gas pipes come to mind at least) to Southern and Central Europe.
You also likely know that Finland has freely decided to join the EU in 1995 and since then has also been slowly aligning itself with NATO, something Russia seems to oppose very much in Ukraine's case. It's quite silly to claim that Finland isn't "pro-west" to use your terms. In some sense it might have even been better to be more "pro-east" in the short term, given how much some of the EU- imposed sanctions have hurt our trade with Russia, but as an independent nation we've actually been able to make the choice ourselves to align with the "pro-west". That appears to be something Russia seeks to stop Ukraine from doing.
Edit: because this is the US-pol thread, lets add in some actual US-content that I came across today. The Trump Twitter ripoff apparently launched today and it appears to be going just as well as one would think. The tweet underneath is the beginning of a thread by an American professor in AI/Privacy and whose done some work on keeping up with the alt-righters and their social media presence.
On February 22 2022 06:03 Zambrah wrote: Apparently Russia is recognizing two regions in Ukraine, and the US is preparing sanctions for those regions. I hear the UK is as well.
Im kind of following this but mostly dont have any particular opinions about whats happening because fuck if I know what Luhansk of Donetsk are, nor do I know their significance or what it might mean for the prospective of invasion, but my first thought is probably leaning more towards excuse-for-invasion?
President Joe Biden plans to impose new sanctions on trade and financing in the two pro-Moscow territories in Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to recognize as independent on Monday.
In a statement, the White House said Biden would sign an executive order that would "prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by US persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine."
Im hoping its an excuse to annex them and leave the rest of Ukraine alone. Sucks for Ukraine but these areas are really not being governed by Ukraine anyway right? Maybe I misunderstood. Seems like the lesser of evils if they are already under rebel control.
On February 22 2022 06:03 Zambrah wrote: Apparently Russia is recognizing two regions in Ukraine, and the US is preparing sanctions for those regions. I hear the UK is as well.
Im kind of following this but mostly dont have any particular opinions about whats happening because fuck if I know what Luhansk of Donetsk are, nor do I know their significance or what it might mean for the prospective of invasion, but my first thought is probably leaning more towards excuse-for-invasion?
President Joe Biden plans to impose new sanctions on trade and financing in the two pro-Moscow territories in Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to recognize as independent on Monday.
In a statement, the White House said Biden would sign an executive order that would "prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by US persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine."
Im hoping its an excuse to annex them and leave the rest of Ukraine alone. Sucks for Ukraine but these areas are really not being governed by Ukraine anyway right? Maybe I misunderstood. Seems like the lesser of evils if they are already under rebel control.
They’re a pretext for war. Russian operatives invaded and created a territorial dispute and now Russia intends to use that manufactured dispute for a limited annexation. If Ukraine opposes it they’ll have their casus belli and if Ukraine permits it they’ll have their victory and can rinse and repeat region by region. Ukraine must contest it to continue to exist as a territorial entity which is why Russia is preparing for war.
On February 22 2022 04:01 maybenexttime wrote: You're so thoroughly brainwashed. ;-)
Yeah, it is quite impressive how you can look at Ukraine and get any impression except "Russia is fucking that country up". Ukraine hasn't "collapsed because of Euromaidan", it has a war being waged upon by Russia. Russia has at this point already annexed part of the country, turned another part into "independent" states with suspicious amounts of russian weapons, and is currently building up troops on the border again.
If you are sad about the state of Ukraine, be angry at Putin. Without russian imperialistic bullshit the country would almost certainly still not be perfect, but way better off.
The origin of all conflict inside the Ukraine currently is without a doubt Euromaidan. However much this fact might inconvenience your narrative, it doesn’t change what happened or why eight years later the Ukraine is in the position it is in. The act of a street mob overthrowing democratically elected judicial, legislative and executive authorities, authorities that half the country thought were better than the authorities the other half had in mind; was always going to end in a drastic manner.
However much you are told you are right while holding a torch in a mob. Overthrowing democratically elected officials and installing unelected people with shady backgrounds hell bent on abusing their power to the detriment of a large part of the population (and for personal financial gain), will cause a reaction from that population.
Would Crimea still be a part of Ukraine if there was no street mob overthrowing the government in Kiev? Yes it would. Would there be a war? No. Would everyone in Ukraine be better off acting like Finland and not do anything stupid like openly antagonizing a nuclear power next door? Yes, they would be doing much today without any pro-west or pro-east politicians profiting from selling out their country to foreign interests. Pro-all people living inside Ukraine is not such a radical idea.
Ukraine and Finland are very different countries with very different relationships and histories with Russia and I find it very ignorant to claim that Ukraine could just act like Finland (or if someone vice versa asked us to act like Ukraine).
Finland at most would be a geographical buffer zone with very little significance economically or culturally to modern Russia. Ukraine on the other hand has much more recent history of Russian rule and also happens to be a key gateway for transit of Russian goods (gas pipes come to mind at least) to Southern and Central Europe.
You also likely know that Finland has freely decided to join the EU in 1995 and since then has also been slowly aligning itself with NATO, something Russia seems to oppose very much in Ukraine's case. It's quite silly to claim that Finland isn't "pro-west" to use your terms. In some sense it might have even been better to be more "pro-east" in the short term, given how much some of the EU- imposed sanctions have hurt our trade with Russia, but as an independent nation we've actually been able to make the choice ourselves to align with the "pro-west". That appears to be something Russia seeks to stop Ukraine from doing.
Edit: because this is the US-pol thread, lets add in some actual US-content that I came across today. The Trump Twitter ripoff apparently launched today and it appears to be going just as well as one would think. The tweet underneath is the beginning of a thread by an American professor in AI/Privacy and whose done some work on keeping up with the alt-righters and their social media presence.
I mean the comparison with Finland is not bad. Finland was bullied to oblivion, invaded, fought a heroic war in which it lost a third of its territory and spent decades in terror of the USSR until it joined Nato.
It’s the perfect showcase of how much of a nightmare being a neighbour to Russia is.
On February 22 2022 06:03 Zambrah wrote: Apparently Russia is recognizing two regions in Ukraine, and the US is preparing sanctions for those regions. I hear the UK is as well.
Im kind of following this but mostly dont have any particular opinions about whats happening because fuck if I know what Luhansk of Donetsk are, nor do I know their significance or what it might mean for the prospective of invasion, but my first thought is probably leaning more towards excuse-for-invasion?
President Joe Biden plans to impose new sanctions on trade and financing in the two pro-Moscow territories in Ukraine that Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to recognize as independent on Monday.
In a statement, the White House said Biden would sign an executive order that would "prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by US persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine."
Im hoping its an excuse to annex them and leave the rest of Ukraine alone. Sucks for Ukraine but these areas are really not being governed by Ukraine anyway right? Maybe I misunderstood. Seems like the lesser of evils if they are already under rebel control.
They’re a pretext for war. Russian operatives invaded and created a territorial dispute and now Russia intends to use that manufactured dispute for a limited annexation. If Ukraine opposes it they’ll have their casus belli and if Ukraine permits it they’ll have their victory and can rinse and repeat region by region. Ukraine must contest it to continue to exist as a territorial entity which is why Russia is preparing for war.
EPT
