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On August 04 2021 09:12 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2021 09:09 Zambrah wrote:
The problem is the Supreme Court is going to slap that down, they've already declared the CDC's declaring of eviction moratoriums to be unconstitutional over a month ago, they said Congress had to do it, so this is, while a nice kind of general action to see, not a proper extension given it has less than no chance of surviving the Supreme Court.
I wonder how long it'll last though, and if it'll actually stop any evictions in the mean time for however long it's in the court system. It would seem that almost everything that requires "congressional authorization" is just a way to kill it without killing it, knowing a divided congress won't get anything done. If the Dems would get rid of the filibuster, they'd be fine. But Manchin and the other one are cutting their noses to spite their face.
Yeah, I agree, bouncing anything as a responsibility to Congress given who we have in Congress is basically a slightly sneaky way of killing it.
The Democrats needed to be united and active to get anything done and it hasn't happened and they're almost assuredly going to get trounced in 2022 giving us back another Republican controlled Congress.
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On August 04 2021 09:15 GreenHorizons wrote:This tweet pretty much sums up what happened with the Biden administration's 180 an eviction moratorium after people including Congressperson Bush slept on the capital steps. Agree with Zambrah that it was remarkably incompetent (assuming incompetence over malice) of Democrats to allow it to lapse in the first place as well as not an actual plan (without one seemingly on the horizon from Democrats either). EDIT: Should add there have been organizing efforts around the country (that have taken a variety of forms, like Cancel Rent) that also put immense pressure on governments federal to local for months to do more helping and less violent forced displacement. EDIT2: The moratorium is the bare minimum to keep the dam from breaking just yet imo
I understand this is probably a huge topic and difficult to do justice in a forum post, but I’d be thrilled to know what “the dam breaking” looks like to your mind. Abstracted metaphors like a dam breaking can be useful sometimes but in this case I have no idea what it refers to.
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An earlier figure from a NYT article (I think?) had about 11 million people significantly behind on rent and susceptible to eviction, thats potentially a figure worth using here, granted Im sure there are plenty of levels or variability on how the pandemic has financially affected people and how thats related to homelessness and such.
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WH says it can't to get Congress of its ass. Congress does not get off its ass
WH goes "fucking hell do I have to do literally everything around here? ".
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On August 04 2021 05:02 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2021 03:40 KwarK wrote:
But surely that agrees with more distance = good. The density of the virus goes down as the distance goes up. The closer you are to the source of the aerosol source, the higher the concentration.
Not arguing that 6ft is magical barrier, just that “don’t stand so close to people” is a fundamentally good message for this pandemic. The problem is that the question is so much more complex. Its distance, duration, ventilation, etc. 6 feet and masks in Wal Mart is borderline useless because almost no one has caught it in Wal Mart anyways. 6 feet and masks in Jerry's Bar and Grill is equally useless, because you can't eat with a mask, tables aren't 6 feet apart, or the more effective lengths (lol @ that idea), and the duration is so long that the air would start to become saturated with aerosols anyways, even if people did the absurd thing that some were recommending circa April 2020 of re-masking between bites. More effective than any of that would have been a $50 bill to people who lost 25 pounds.
The actual science may be more complex, but the guidelines are not, and should not:
1. Stay as far away from people as reasonably possible.
2. Avoid direct physical contact with people not in your household.
3. Wear a mask when at all possible.
4. Ventilate common spaces as much as possible.
5. Avoid being indoors with people not in your household as much as possible.
Plenty of the unvaccinated don't even try -- sometimes as a point of pride: people know they shouldn't be hugging people not in their household, yet they do it anyway.
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On August 04 2021 06:07 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2021 05:15 Artisreal wrote:
if you're allowing a situation where masks dont work it's rather unsuprising that masks dont work.
not that complex after all, innit? The thing is, everything that people do/want to do is basically such a situation. There are few-to-no situations where you have an indoor, 15 minute, interaction with a person and you both aren't also doing something so physical/or needs the mouth/nose exposed to render the masks irrelevant. Like, maybe a men's haircut at one of the cheap, impersonal, salons.
I went to the hairdresser and had my mask on all the time. Haircut was perfect.
I went to the bouldering gym, had my mask on all the time. Gym had all windows open (yay for summer).
People didn't adhere to social distancing but it was manageable thanks to the limited capacity.
In restaurants you have to have ventilation and distance between seats --> limited capacity.
That sucks major ass for the enterprises, no doublt about that. This is where the country should step in to support businesses.
But apart from that??? Meetings? --> online or mask
Manicure --> the manicurist wears a mask anyway since way before the pandemic.
Work in a supermarket? --> employer has to provide PPE that actually fits.
Shop in a supermarket? --> wear PPE for the 30 mins that you need.
I can't find these situations you imagine apart from maybe a pool and restauration or a dentist.
If we're talking about whether people WANT to wear masks, hell yeah are we in agreement that hardly anyone wants to do so.
But if we're talking about NECESSITY, we hopefully are in agreement that it's either VACC everyone or everyone wears masks.
strict adherence to distancing guidelines could replace masks, but there are those who dont do it.
Hence we need a plethora of measures, as we can't rely on just one. Not even vaccinations as people are too fucking polarised to think clearly.
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There are more people working harder to not mask instead of just wearing a mask and being done with it. It's like people trying to skip out on work. Just wear the mask. Get the vaccine. Whatever Olympic gymnastic floor event you have your brain doing to convince you to not do the smallest of mitigation, stop. More energy spent fighting something that will hopefully speed up the road to recovery instead of being part of the solution. I'll never understand it.
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On August 04 2021 18:28 Artisreal wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2021 06:07 cLutZ wrote:On August 04 2021 05:15 Artisreal wrote:
if you're allowing a situation where masks dont work it's rather unsuprising that masks dont work.
not that complex after all, innit? The thing is, everything that people do/want to do is basically such a situation. There are few-to-no situations where you have an indoor, 15 minute, interaction with a person and you both aren't also doing something so physical/or needs the mouth/nose exposed to render the masks irrelevant. Like, maybe a men's haircut at one of the cheap, impersonal, salons. I went to the hairdresser and had my mask on all the time. Haircut was perfect. I went to the bouldering gym, had my mask on all the time. Gym had all windows open (yay for summer). People didn't adhere to social distancing but it was manageable thanks to the limited capacity. In restaurants you have to have ventilation and distance between seats --> limited capacity. That sucks major ass for the enterprises, no doublt about that. This is where the country should step in to support businesses. But apart from that??? Meetings? --> online or mask Manicure --> the manicurist wears a mask anyway since way before the pandemic. Work in a supermarket? --> employer has to provide PPE that actually fits. Shop in a supermarket? --> wear PPE for the 30 mins that you need. I can't find these situations you imagine apart from maybe a pool and restauration or a dentist. If we're talking about whether people WANT to wear masks, hell yeah are we in agreement that hardly anyone wants to do so. But if we're talking about NECESSITY, we hopefully are in agreement that it's either VACC everyone or everyone wears masks. strict adherence to distancing guidelines could replace masks, but there are those who dont do it. Hence we need a plethora of measures, as we can't rely on just one. Not even vaccinations as people are too fucking polarised to think clearly.
I think we've only got evidence of the mask itself being significant in the hairdresser and manicure examples you gave. In all the other examples all the other factors overwhelm masks so much that you have to squint, jostle, and manipulate the data to get the "preferred" result, which is that masks work, because we all want to think that we all can do something visible to reduce the spread.
I say all this because I was pro-mask in Jan/February 2020 before it was consensus because I knew the old studies on droplet transmission and figured it would be as such for this virus. But then we got the real world data and it simply does not match up with laboratory results at all. If masks in real world situations worked anything like masks did in the old lab experiments they would have been basically as good as the vaccines were against covid classic. The effect would have been absolutely massive. No one would need to do complicated statistics like the newest official CDC stance on it had to, no, it would have been obvious, and massive. Cases would drop off a cliff if even 50% of people were masked. That didn't happen, so we all had to adjust expectations.
And we should continue to. That way we can select actually effective NPIs like open windows, instead of choosing what is probably the least effective one, simply because it is the most visibly obvious one. That is actually why I think masks are thee preferred NPI: Because they are visual, thus all the people know the politicians are doing something. This plays towards peoples' bias to action, and serves to alleviate the neuroses of some of the people.
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On August 04 2021 22:57 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2021 18:28 Artisreal wrote:On August 04 2021 06:07 cLutZ wrote:On August 04 2021 05:15 Artisreal wrote:
if you're allowing a situation where masks dont work it's rather unsuprising that masks dont work.
not that complex after all, innit? The thing is, everything that people do/want to do is basically such a situation. There are few-to-no situations where you have an indoor, 15 minute, interaction with a person and you both aren't also doing something so physical/or needs the mouth/nose exposed to render the masks irrelevant. Like, maybe a men's haircut at one of the cheap, impersonal, salons. I went to the hairdresser and had my mask on all the time. Haircut was perfect. I went to the bouldering gym, had my mask on all the time. Gym had all windows open (yay for summer). People didn't adhere to social distancing but it was manageable thanks to the limited capacity. In restaurants you have to have ventilation and distance between seats --> limited capacity. That sucks major ass for the enterprises, no doublt about that. This is where the country should step in to support businesses. But apart from that??? Meetings? --> online or mask Manicure --> the manicurist wears a mask anyway since way before the pandemic. Work in a supermarket? --> employer has to provide PPE that actually fits. Shop in a supermarket? --> wear PPE for the 30 mins that you need. I can't find these situations you imagine apart from maybe a pool and restauration or a dentist. If we're talking about whether people WANT to wear masks, hell yeah are we in agreement that hardly anyone wants to do so. But if we're talking about NECESSITY, we hopefully are in agreement that it's either VACC everyone or everyone wears masks. strict adherence to distancing guidelines could replace masks, but there are those who dont do it. Hence we need a plethora of measures, as we can't rely on just one. Not even vaccinations as people are too fucking polarised to think clearly. I think we've only got evidence of the mask itself being significant in the hairdresser and manicure examples you gave. In all the other examples all the other factors overwhelm masks so much that you have to squint, jostle, and manipulate the data to get the "preferred" result, which is that masks work, because we all want to think that we all can do something visible to reduce the spread. I say all this because I was pro-mask in Jan/February 2020 before it was consensus because I knew the old studies on droplet transmission and figured it would be as such for this virus. But then we got the real world data and it simply does not match up with laboratory results at all. If masks in real world situations worked anything like masks did in the old lab experiments they would have been basically as good as the vaccines were against covid classic. The effect would have been absolutely massive. No one would need to do complicated statistics like the newest official CDC stance on it had to, no, it would have been obvious, and massive. Cases would drop off a cliff if even 50% of people were masked. That didn't happen, so we all had to adjust expectations. And we should continue to. That way we can select actually effective NPIs like open windows, instead of choosing what is probably the least effective one, simply because it is the most visibly obvious one. That is actually why I think masks are thee preferred NPI: Because they are visual, thus all the people know the politicians are doing something. This plays towards peoples' bias to action, and serves to alleviate the neuroses of some of the people.
You're posing this as an either/or situation. There's nothing stopping us from improving ventilation while also wearing masks -- what's going to reduce the rate, in the long run, is a combination of all available measures at our disposal. Some are more effective, some are less effective. There's bsically no reason to stop doing any of them if at all possible if this results in even one avoided death.
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On August 05 2021 03:03 EnDeR_ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2021 22:57 cLutZ wrote:On August 04 2021 18:28 Artisreal wrote:On August 04 2021 06:07 cLutZ wrote:On August 04 2021 05:15 Artisreal wrote:
if you're allowing a situation where masks dont work it's rather unsuprising that masks dont work.
not that complex after all, innit? The thing is, everything that people do/want to do is basically such a situation. There are few-to-no situations where you have an indoor, 15 minute, interaction with a person and you both aren't also doing something so physical/or needs the mouth/nose exposed to render the masks irrelevant. Like, maybe a men's haircut at one of the cheap, impersonal, salons. I went to the hairdresser and had my mask on all the time. Haircut was perfect. I went to the bouldering gym, had my mask on all the time. Gym had all windows open (yay for summer). People didn't adhere to social distancing but it was manageable thanks to the limited capacity. In restaurants you have to have ventilation and distance between seats --> limited capacity. That sucks major ass for the enterprises, no doublt about that. This is where the country should step in to support businesses. But apart from that??? Meetings? --> online or mask Manicure --> the manicurist wears a mask anyway since way before the pandemic. Work in a supermarket? --> employer has to provide PPE that actually fits. Shop in a supermarket? --> wear PPE for the 30 mins that you need. I can't find these situations you imagine apart from maybe a pool and restauration or a dentist. If we're talking about whether people WANT to wear masks, hell yeah are we in agreement that hardly anyone wants to do so. But if we're talking about NECESSITY, we hopefully are in agreement that it's either VACC everyone or everyone wears masks. strict adherence to distancing guidelines could replace masks, but there are those who dont do it. Hence we need a plethora of measures, as we can't rely on just one. Not even vaccinations as people are too fucking polarised to think clearly. I think we've only got evidence of the mask itself being significant in the hairdresser and manicure examples you gave. In all the other examples all the other factors overwhelm masks so much that you have to squint, jostle, and manipulate the data to get the "preferred" result, which is that masks work, because we all want to think that we all can do something visible to reduce the spread. I say all this because I was pro-mask in Jan/February 2020 before it was consensus because I knew the old studies on droplet transmission and figured it would be as such for this virus. But then we got the real world data and it simply does not match up with laboratory results at all. If masks in real world situations worked anything like masks did in the old lab experiments they would have been basically as good as the vaccines were against covid classic. The effect would have been absolutely massive. No one would need to do complicated statistics like the newest official CDC stance on it had to, no, it would have been obvious, and massive. Cases would drop off a cliff if even 50% of people were masked. That didn't happen, so we all had to adjust expectations. And we should continue to. That way we can select actually effective NPIs like open windows, instead of choosing what is probably the least effective one, simply because it is the most visibly obvious one. That is actually why I think masks are thee preferred NPI: Because they are visual, thus all the people know the politicians are doing something. This plays towards peoples' bias to action, and serves to alleviate the neuroses of some of the people. You're posing this as an either/or situation. There's nothing stopping us from improving ventilation while also wearing masks -- what's going to reduce the rate, in the long run, is a combination of all available measures at our disposal. Some are more effective, some are less effective. There's bsically no reason to stop doing any of them if at all possible if this results in even one avoided death.
Universal masking is a fairly high cost for one avoided death, same with closing public parks. At many points there are tradeoffs. One of the (probably) big reasons that Delta is causing so much damage is that the lockdowns transformed a lot of healthy, naturally immune people (see students) into vectors for the disease as well as potential victims for the disease. While there are many good stories out their of people getting into shape during the last 18 months, the majority story is one of spiraling downward health outcomes, covid exempted.
I'd say there are a few NPIs that clearly, in hindsight have done more harm than good:
1) School closures (but this one isn't even hindsight, never was a good idea). Clearly now we wish all children got covid classic.
2) Any open space closure (see 1, never any evidence for these).
3) Masks. They deter useful healthy activities too much and probably reduce immune system robustness (via other weak coronavirus exposure) more than they defend against C-19. Not pure hindsight, but was strongly indicated by ~ June 2020.
4) Athletic facility closures. Used primarily by people we also now in hindsight wish got covid classic. But I'll admit this is almost pure hindsight.
Edit: To add. The "even 1 death" idea is akin to California's long time forest management policy which has now, in the present day, led to far more disastrous forest fires.
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On August 05 2021 04:10 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 05 2021 03:03 EnDeR_ wrote:On August 04 2021 22:57 cLutZ wrote:On August 04 2021 18:28 Artisreal wrote:On August 04 2021 06:07 cLutZ wrote:On August 04 2021 05:15 Artisreal wrote:
if you're allowing a situation where masks dont work it's rather unsuprising that masks dont work.
not that complex after all, innit? The thing is, everything that people do/want to do is basically such a situation. There are few-to-no situations where you have an indoor, 15 minute, interaction with a person and you both aren't also doing something so physical/or needs the mouth/nose exposed to render the masks irrelevant. Like, maybe a men's haircut at one of the cheap, impersonal, salons. I went to the hairdresser and had my mask on all the time. Haircut was perfect. I went to the bouldering gym, had my mask on all the time. Gym had all windows open (yay for summer). People didn't adhere to social distancing but it was manageable thanks to the limited capacity. In restaurants you have to have ventilation and distance between seats --> limited capacity. That sucks major ass for the enterprises, no doublt about that. This is where the country should step in to support businesses. But apart from that??? Meetings? --> online or mask Manicure --> the manicurist wears a mask anyway since way before the pandemic. Work in a supermarket? --> employer has to provide PPE that actually fits. Shop in a supermarket? --> wear PPE for the 30 mins that you need. I can't find these situations you imagine apart from maybe a pool and restauration or a dentist. If we're talking about whether people WANT to wear masks, hell yeah are we in agreement that hardly anyone wants to do so. But if we're talking about NECESSITY, we hopefully are in agreement that it's either VACC everyone or everyone wears masks. strict adherence to distancing guidelines could replace masks, but there are those who dont do it. Hence we need a plethora of measures, as we can't rely on just one. Not even vaccinations as people are too fucking polarised to think clearly. I think we've only got evidence of the mask itself being significant in the hairdresser and manicure examples you gave. In all the other examples all the other factors overwhelm masks so much that you have to squint, jostle, and manipulate the data to get the "preferred" result, which is that masks work, because we all want to think that we all can do something visible to reduce the spread. I say all this because I was pro-mask in Jan/February 2020 before it was consensus because I knew the old studies on droplet transmission and figured it would be as such for this virus. But then we got the real world data and it simply does not match up with laboratory results at all. If masks in real world situations worked anything like masks did in the old lab experiments they would have been basically as good as the vaccines were against covid classic. The effect would have been absolutely massive. No one would need to do complicated statistics like the newest official CDC stance on it had to, no, it would have been obvious, and massive. Cases would drop off a cliff if even 50% of people were masked. That didn't happen, so we all had to adjust expectations. And we should continue to. That way we can select actually effective NPIs like open windows, instead of choosing what is probably the least effective one, simply because it is the most visibly obvious one. That is actually why I think masks are thee preferred NPI: Because they are visual, thus all the people know the politicians are doing something. This plays towards peoples' bias to action, and serves to alleviate the neuroses of some of the people. You're posing this as an either/or situation. There's nothing stopping us from improving ventilation while also wearing masks -- what's going to reduce the rate, in the long run, is a combination of all available measures at our disposal. Some are more effective, some are less effective. There's bsically no reason to stop doing any of them if at all possible if this results in even one avoided death. Universal masking is a fairly high cost for one avoided death, same with closing public parks. At many points there are tradeoffs. One of the (probably) big reasons that Delta is causing so much damage is that the lockdowns transformed a lot of healthy, naturally immune people (see students) into vectors for the disease as well as potential victims for the disease. While there are many good stories out their of people getting into shape during the last 18 months, the majority story is one of spiraling downward health outcomes, covid exempted. I'd say there are a few NPIs that clearly, in hindsight have done more harm than good: 1) School closures (but this one isn't even hindsight, never was a good idea). Clearly now we wish all children got covid classic. 2) Any open space closure (see 1, never any evidence for these). 3) Masks. They deter useful healthy activities too much and probably reduce immune system robustness (via other weak coronavirus exposure) more than they defend against C-19. Not pure hindsight, but was strongly indicated by ~ June 2020. 4) Athletic facility closures. Used primarily by people we also now in hindsight wish got covid classic. But I'll admit this is almost pure hindsight. Edit: To add. The "even 1 death" idea is akin to California's long time forest management policy which has now, in the present day, led to far more disastrous forest fires.
I'm sure no one wishes they got covid. My uncle went to the hospital and almost died, he's still recovering 6 months later.
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yep, the concept that we would wish any person got some strain of covid with the underlying assumption that there is some benefit seems asinine and requires some defense.
i have been hoping to get married so i have done as much reading as a layperson can and i have yet to see anyone suggest there is some benefit to getting any kind of covid. the only reasoning i’ve come across elsewhere, and stupid reasoning, would be because it provides antibodies for which science is not certain is an effective preventative measure. the vaccine does this more safely (duh) and more effectively according to any doctor.
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That is the difference between individual and collective health decisions. Almost no one wishes they had to get the vaccine either. But collectively everyone getting it is very good. Vaccine is not for children though, thus we wish, collectively, they had all gotten Covid classic while they were also in prime petri dish condition (which is what the schools are as every parent will testify to) so as to have given them some modicum of immunity to Delta.
These are the hard decisions that public health officials are supposed to be able to make, but ours have seemingly continually failed to make. Kids being in school the whole of covid is like a needle exchange (or again, like lighting intentional fires to purge the forest). It doesn't seem ideal, but it is.
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that is pants on head stupid.
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Someone having the confidence to say that they think that we would wish all the kids getting covid kinda broke me.
I'm starting to get really pissed at all these pro-covid people out here. They want the freedom to drive drunk and will do anything to justify killing themselves and other people.
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On August 04 2021 22:41 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
There are more people working harder to not mask instead of just wearing a mask and being done with it. It's like people trying to skip out on work. Just wear the mask. Get the vaccine. Whatever Olympic gymnastic floor event you have your brain doing to convince you to not do the smallest of mitigation, stop. More energy spent fighting something that will hopefully speed up the road to recovery instead of being part of the solution. I'll never understand it.
Ideally we have compulsory vaccinations for all, mandatory mask-wearing indoors and outdoors, and full lockdown that bars all non-essential activities. It's just that simple and I have no idea why people could possibly be opposed to that.
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On August 05 2021 08:02 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2021 22:41 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
There are more people working harder to not mask instead of just wearing a mask and being done with it. It's like people trying to skip out on work. Just wear the mask. Get the vaccine. Whatever Olympic gymnastic floor event you have your brain doing to convince you to not do the smallest of mitigation, stop. More energy spent fighting something that will hopefully speed up the road to recovery instead of being part of the solution. I'll never understand it. Ideally we have compulsory vaccinations for all, mandatory mask-wearing indoors and outdoors, and full lockdown that bars all non-essential activities. It's just that simple and I have no idea why people could possibly be opposed to that.
The only thing on that list that I find objectionable is the lockdown bit. That's always meant to be a stopgap measure to give time for a better protection in place, i.e. get everyone vaccinated. You really shouldn't be locking down completely unless you're desperate.
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On August 05 2021 08:02 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2021 22:41 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote:
There are more people working harder to not mask instead of just wearing a mask and being done with it. It's like people trying to skip out on work. Just wear the mask. Get the vaccine. Whatever Olympic gymnastic floor event you have your brain doing to convince you to not do the smallest of mitigation, stop. More energy spent fighting something that will hopefully speed up the road to recovery instead of being part of the solution. I'll never understand it. Ideally we have compulsory vaccinations for all, mandatory mask-wearing indoors and outdoors, and full lockdown that bars all non-essential activities. It's just that simple and I have no idea why people could possibly be opposed to that.
Because it probably won't work because no part of the US government has the stomach to arrest enough of the people who violate those conditions.
All such a situation will end up with is a sort of double standard where all the costs are borne by the middle classes, while the lower and upper classes flaunt the orders with little to no consequences (like we've seen throughout any of the orders).
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EPT
