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On February 19 2021 07:12 GreenHorizons wrote:
Forgiving debt on something a majority of voters think should be free going forward anyway is an easy win. That he can do it without Congress (neglecting he has the Senate leader's vocal support) just makes it that much more so imo.
There's not going to be a good political or economic time to stop the moratorium on payments either imo. Right now it's set to expire in September but I have a hard time imagining the economy will be anywhere near the recovery needed for that to not get him/Democrats eviscerated politically. Think Nev's right they aren't coming back before 2022 at the soonest.
Welcome back! I was a little worried you’d decide not to come back. Fucking wild 90 days, huh?
On topic: If I’m not mistaken, Biden’s on record saying he doesn’t think this is a constitutional use of executive power, and it’s hard to imagine a stand-alone student debt forgiveness bill making it through Congress. So unless they squeezed it into Covid relief somehow, it’s hard to imagine this ending any other way than indefinite extensions of the moratorium, right? That sucks to keep it hanging over people’s heads obviously, but I have trouble imagining another outcome.
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Biden says he doesnt believe he has the power but it seems like a small horde of Democrats believe he does, so I'm not really sold on "I dont have that power" being a valid reason tbh
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Forgiving student loan debt would be a colossal economic boost to a generation that is brutally weighed down by that very debt. This debt is the same debt that we were conditioned to take out by a generation that never had to deal with it. It's the same kind of logic that Boomers use when they criticize schools for not teaching real-world skills anymore; they were the one that actually inflicted that problem on the generations that they raised.
Yes, higher education costs need to be sharply curtailed, but the current debt burden also needs to be addressed.
As for reducing interest rates, that kind of fix reminds me of Obamacare; a half-baked compromise that realizes there is a problem but doesn't adequately address it. It would be great not to have to pay the interest, but that still doesn't address the tens of thousands in principal debt that the average student loan borrower has.
Biden says he doesnt believe he has the power but it seems like a small horde of Democrats believe he does, so I'm not really sold on "I dont have that power" being a valid reason tbh
Forgiving student debt via EO would undoubtedly have a host of legal challenges from conservatives.
Biden really wants to force Congress to do it so that there isn't any controversy or ambiguity around him doing it by EO instead.
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On February 19 2021 09:18 Zambrah wrote:
Biden says he doesnt believe he has the power but it seems like a small horde of Democrats believe he does, so I'm not really sold on "I dont have that power" being a valid reason tbh
I know that one of the biggest issues with using presidential EOs is that, in theory, the next president could undo those EOs... but if Biden can somehow use his executive power to forgive student debt, then I'd imagine that such an order/action couldn't really be undone by the next president, right? Like, the next president can't just come in and say, "Hey... that $10,000 in debt that you used to owe but don't anymore... it's due again".
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On February 19 2021 09:24 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2021 09:18 Zambrah wrote:
Biden says he doesnt believe he has the power but it seems like a small horde of Democrats believe he does, so I'm not really sold on "I dont have that power" being a valid reason tbh I know that one of the biggest issues with using presidential EOs is that, in theory, the next president could undo those EOs... but if Biden can somehow use his executive power to forgive student debt, then I'd imagine that such an order/action couldn't really be undone by the next president, right? Like, the next president can't just come in and say, "Hey... that $10,000 in debt that you used to owe but don't anymore... it's due again".
No, but conservatives could (and would) sue to stop it from taking effect, meaning that the result would definitely be in doubt with Trump's stooges on the SC and, even if it did end up in Biden's favor, it could take years to enact. Not only this, but if it took long enough, someone else could potentially take office and reverse his EO via their EO before the forgiveness EO takes effect.
I doubt anyone has a confident answer to what any of this would mean legally, which is most likely why he just wants Congress to do it so there aren't any questions.
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On February 19 2021 09:24 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2021 09:18 Zambrah wrote:
Biden says he doesnt believe he has the power but it seems like a small horde of Democrats believe he does, so I'm not really sold on "I dont have that power" being a valid reason tbh I know that one of the biggest issues with using presidential EOs is that, in theory, the next president could undo those EOs... but if Biden can somehow use his executive power to forgive student debt, then I'd imagine that such an order/action couldn't really be undone by the next president, right? Like, the next president can't just come in and say, "Hey... that $10,000 in debt that you used to owe but don't anymore... it's due again".
Yeah, no chance anyone has the balls to tell a huge generation of people, "You now owe me tens of thousands of dollars."
That'd be some real career suicide, imo.
EDIT: Also, I 100% agree with everything Stratos wrote.
I think relying on Congress isn't going to work with the way the US works at the moment, though, I'd rather them TRY to do it via EO and let the Republicans tell people, "yeah that life changing positive thing Democrats are trying to do, no we're not going to let that happen," I'm POSITIVE they'll try, I mean shit, look at some of the psychopathic statements from Texas atm, but even if they succeed in their legal challenges its a great angle to work, "Republicans are actively working to keep your financial situation ruined." And it'd be proactive, that proactivity would be a good look for Democrats even if it fails. Its better to try and fail than not to try at all because you assume you'll fail.
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On February 19 2021 09:27 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2021 09:24 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 19 2021 09:18 Zambrah wrote:
Biden says he doesnt believe he has the power but it seems like a small horde of Democrats believe he does, so I'm not really sold on "I dont have that power" being a valid reason tbh I know that one of the biggest issues with using presidential EOs is that, in theory, the next president could undo those EOs... but if Biden can somehow use his executive power to forgive student debt, then I'd imagine that such an order/action couldn't really be undone by the next president, right? Like, the next president can't just come in and say, "Hey... that $10,000 in debt that you used to owe but don't anymore... it's due again". Yeah, no chance anyone has the balls to tell a huge generation of people, "You now owe me tens of thousands of dollars."That'd be some real career suicide, imo. EDIT: Also, I 100% agree with everything Stratos wrote. I think relying on Congress isn't going to work with the way the US works at the moment, though, I'd rather them TRY to do it via EO and let the Republicans tell people, "yeah that life changing positive thing Democrats are trying to do, no we're not going to let that happen," I'm POSITIVE they'll try, I mean shit, look at some of the psychopathic statements from Texas atm, but even if they succeed in their legal challenges its a great angle to work, "Republicans are actively working to keep your financial situation ruined." And it'd be proactive, that proactivity would be a good look for Democrats even if it fails. Its better to try and fail than not to try at all because you assume you'll fail.
TBH, we are already there and it’s why I’m not stressing about student loans being what they once were. Millions of people are totally used to it by now. No one would view it as “return to normal” after the government was apparently just fine without payments for over a year. They’re gonna tell me the entire country falls apart if student loans start back up? Bullshit. Fact of the matter is that student loan payments are not necessary. Dems either lose in 2022, then 2024, likely not returning to power for a very long time, or they satisfy their base. My wife and I were paying 900 per month. That isn’t going to happen again. Whether I move to Canada or stay here, the fact of the matter is I’m done making those payments.
But all that really needs to be focused on is how democrats win in 2022 without significant student loan relief. They don’t, plain and simple. Since they know that and control all 3 branches, I’m not worried. This is a matter of survival for democrats
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To be fair they only control two branches, since the Supreme Court and courts in general have been uber-packed with conservatives. 
But yeah, two branches is 100% enough power, theres no hiding behind the Republican's obstructionism at the moment, anything that the Democrats fail to accomplish is going to be entirely on them going into midterms which is why they can't afford to be piddly and waffle-y and talking themselves into the least they can possibly do. Now is not the time for, "things won't fundamentally change."
Student loan payments, monthly stimulus checks, infrastructure, climate change, the US is fucked up on so many fronts the Democrats need to prove they can be proactive and save America from it's current slide down the Empire-In-Decline garbage chute.
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I probably agree that Democrats’ midterm chances are largely dependent on their ability to get meaningful policy changes done, and blaming Republican obstructionism isn’t going to save them. It doesn’t seem likely to me, though, that narrow majorities in both houses, plus the white house, is enough to be able to enact major changes. We’ll see, I suppose, but I can’t imagine, say, meaningful healthcare reform getting through in these conditions. And how could Republicans ever think about bipartisan deals? Even left-leaning posters on this forum agree: passing stuff -> Democrats win midterms, not passing stuff -> Democrats lose midterms.
As for averting imperial decline, the most pressing issue there would seem to me the fact that a significant portion of the opposition party seems to believe that a) Democrats are an evil cabal that should be killed or imprisoned, and b) any election a Republican loses must have been stolen, and should be invalidated by any means necessary. I’m not sure how a democracy can survive that, but I’m also not sure what Democrats are supposed to do about it.
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I think people need to have faith in institutions restored, its a lot easier to think the system is rigged and cheating you when you see the rich rigging and cheating the system for their own benefit and fucking over the lower classes.
Taxing the rich, closing loopholes, health insurance, debt relief (on the medical front, the education front, and after the coronavirus pandemic basically EVERY front) making sure people earn living wages (15 an hour isn't it in a lot of places, but its a start at least) making education affordable, etc. etc.
You're right that stuff that has to pass through Congress is almost assuredly not going to happen unless its crazy popular and really simple (like stimulus checks) and thats part of why student debt relief is being latched onto so much, because Biden CAN just forgive it himself. He doesn't need Congressional approval, and an EO cancelling student debt would be enormously popular and show that Democrats are willing to at least try and help swaths of Americans that are seriously hurting right now.
The Republican problem is definitely not something that can be bipartisaned, they absolutely have to be crushed and either die off or adapt to an American politics that stops excusing obstructionism and helplessness imo.
I think the US is more likely to fade off and become weak/die off, but if thats not to happen proactive efforts to adapt to modern times is key. The US being a uniquely crap "first world" country isn't going to fly mid to long term.
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Zambrah, I am sorry, but I feel sometimes that you fail to understand how politics work. To me it seems that you get elected, you do everything you want. Just pass all the laws you dream of, you have a majority!! I mean why not?
You then think that if someone has a majority and doesn't do something it's because they didn't want to and then you get angry.
Now, there is that thing called political capital. With a +1 majority, you gave VERY little of it and you got to pick up your battle very carefully.
Obama spent virtually all his political capital on the ACA. That he didn't fix a million other huge things that needed fixing is not because he was a neoliberal traitor, it's because he simply couldn't. He had the opinion against him, had to battle for support constantly both from the public and his party and got recked in the mid term. He was reelected despite the ACA not because of it. It's a miracle it survived the Trump years.
It does not matter what Biden wants in a vacuum. If he magically could, he probably would cancel those student debts. But that is not the hill he is gonna die on right now; there are in fact very, very few hills he can take at all and he need to pick them extremely carefully. He has identified two in priority, the pandemic relief and recovery, and the environment; just to do that well will be very, very challenging.
Now. I know that whatever he does, it's not gonna be enough, that you will get angry and blame the fact he is a centrist or something. And you will be angry with every single politician elected until you understand that being in power doesn't give you the power to do whatever you want.
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On February 19 2021 12:31 Zambrah wrote:
I think people need to have faith in institutions restored, its a lot easier to think the system is rigged and cheating you when you see the rich rigging and cheating the system for their own benefit and fucking over the lower classes.
Taxing the rich, closing loopholes, health insurance, debt relief (on the medical front, the education front, and after the coronavirus pandemic basically EVERY front) making sure people earn living wages (15 an hour isn't it in a lot of places, but its a start at least) making education affordable, etc. etc.
You're right that stuff that has to pass through Congress is almost assuredly not going to happen unless its crazy popular and really simple (like stimulus checks) and thats part of why student debt relief is being latched onto so much, because Biden CAN just forgive it himself. He doesn't need Congressional approval, and an EO cancelling student debt would be enormously popular and show that Democrats are willing to at least try and help swaths of Americans that are seriously hurting right now.
The Republican problem is definitely not something that can be bipartisaned, they absolutely have to be crushed and either die off or adapt to an American politics that stops excusing obstructionism and helplessness imo.
I think the US is more likely to fade off and become weak/die off, but if thats not to happen proactive efforts to adapt to modern times is key. The US being a uniquely crap "first world" country isn't going to fly mid to long term.
Considering the one law Biden signed so far was a bipartisan exemption allowing a (since former) Raytheon board member to become Secretary of Defense (the law he was exempted from was for his active duty service) I wouldn't get my hopes up on Democrats meeting even a minimally necessary threshold of competence, integrity, or accountability.
He should have already canceled the $10k he says he supports and worry about the other $40k later/let congress do that part at minimum imo.
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I don't know that I believe the "political capital" theory. Do you burn political capital by doing popular things or do you actually gain capital? I wonder if it's actually a false theory that is pushed by the opposition to hamstring the party in power while also giving cover for the party in power to do little.
After the ACA, why not push for student debt reform? Why not push prison reform? I don't know that any actual currency is being used up, other than time. So use your time efficiently, get different commissions together for each topic and let them work in parallel, but push for each thing as it becomes available and fuck "political capital". Each good law may actually increase your capital, not decrease it.
Having said that, I'm not a believer in cancelling student debts by the president. That would be a massive unconstitutional expansion of his power to take control of the purse from congress. The Supreme Court would almost definitely strike that down. And honestly, it's not great policy. The Republican talking point going forward would be, "A massive transfer of wealth from the working class to the college educated elite". Just ignore that most college educated people are part of the working class. Everyone would now owe more money as a nation to fund college kids' 4 years of partying. And to top it all off, the root cause would be untouched and we'd just create another round of debt laden students who will pay anything for college at any interest rate because they expect the next president to waive off another round of debt.
That isn't sound policy at all.
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I completely agree with your assessment of political capital, the only time I could find that applicable is when doing things that most people actively don't want, then youre burning their trust in you to enact whatever it is people don't want, but doing actively popular things? Why would that lessen "political capital," it should only really make you more popular. Time is definitely a bigger concern, and faffing about without passing anything is closer to burning political capital than passing popular impactful legislation is.
As to the legality of Biden EO'ing student debt away, its definitely not massively unconstitutional, Elizabeth Warren makes the case that under a 1965 education reform bill passed under LBJ that the education secretary was already given the power to address student loans by Congress.
"The experts, Eileen Connor, Deanne Loonin and Toby Merrill, cited a provision of a sweeping higher education bill passed in 1965 under President Lyndon Johnson. The provision grants the Education secretary the authority to “modify” existing loans, they wrote, adding that the secretary “has the authority to modify a loan to zero.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/14/elizabeth-warren-says-she-can-forgive-student-loan-debt-without-congress.html
So its definitely not a black and white legal situation, theres absolutely an argument that Biden can let his education secretary cancel out student loans.
While yes, this is not at all a singularly perfect policy, its an important band aid on a bleeding wound, higher education reform isn't going to get reformed until the Democrats achieve either 60+ votes, or what, like 55ish Senate seats so that Joe Manchin and Sinema and Feinstein and the other pseudo-Republicans can't block removal of the filibuster. Until that time comes, we should consider providing aid to people with student loans, with the added benefit of letting people actually pump that student loan payment money into the economy.
Just because we can't solve everything all in one go doesn't mean we shouldn't push to solve as much as we can whenever we can, imo.
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10k in student loan forgiveness is the maximum that should even be considered at all. This whole 50k or total debt forgiveness is nonsense. "It will be a great for the economy!" Sure, instead lets give 1.6 trillion but only to non college educated earners instead. Im sure the economy will boom from that too. And would probably make more sense.
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What about debt forgiveness do you find to be nonsense?
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On February 19 2021 14:57 Zambrah wrote:
What about debt forgiveness do you find to be nonsense?
Pretty much every portion of it, from the way it is presented, the people it is supposedly targeting/benefiting, to the actual supposed need people claim. It's regressive in nature. It benefits college educated, higher earning individuals, prioritizing the ones most capable of paying back the loans. 60% of the debt is held by people that earn in the top 40% of incomes in the country.
If the proposals were honest, it would set it's goal at 10k. That amount of forgiveness would help 16.3 million borrowers, nearly 36% of the total number of them, costing only $78.5 billion, or 5.4% of total loans outstanding. 66% of all loan defaults are from this group. That directs help to those most likely to default, those most in need and at a fraction of the cost being proposed.
ETA: Those numbers would be for people that have 10k in debt and under if I remember correctly, not blanket forgiveness to everyone at that number.
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So almost half of college debt is owned by people in the bottom 60% of income, thats still a massive chunk of people who would benefit from student debt relief.
Thats the problem with the hyper-means-tested budget-austerity policy, it ignores tons of people in legitimate need because it believes that its preferable to let people suffer than to benefit some people who won't strictly require that help. Is letting people fall through the cracks really a worth making sure some other people who might not need help dont get it?
I'd also like to look at those numbers if you have any sources for them, I have a hard time imagining that 66% of defaults are coming from people who have less than 10,000 dollars in debt.
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I'm not American so maybe that's why, but I don't understand how is student loan forgiveness a serious topic to discuss at all. I do believe that education should be free or close to free, and that the way things are in America right now are massively messed up on that front. But at the same time, college graduates do earn a lot more on average than non-graduates do; graduate jobs are, for the most part, more desirable than non-graduate ones, it's a status symbol, it's a big life experience, etc. All of the people who went to college to date have done so knowing the price of it. They might not have understood the price very well, but at the very least they were aware of it. Then there are millions of people who had not gone to college, some of them because they didn't want to, but a large percentage of them because they didn't have the means to do so. Deleting the student debts, and especially deleting the student debts without at the same time massively reforming the higher education system, is a huge fuck you to everyone who hasn't gone to college, and a slightly smaller (but still very sizable) fuck you to those who did go to college but has already paid off their loans. And what about all the people who might have been saving up for college up until now because they didn't want to get into debt? 'Hey guys, had you just gone to college without a care about the loans you'd incur, we'd have waved them away now and you'd have studied for free. But that doesn't mean you can go study for free now, no sir, that was a limited time offer and you've missed it!'
As someone who has paid for 2 undergrad degrees and a masters out of pocket in the UK (which is better, but not massively so in that regard than the US), I'd absolutely go out and protest against this sort of thing.
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On February 19 2021 15:46 Zambrah wrote:
So almost half of college debt is owned by people in the bottom 60% of income, thats still a massive chunk of people who would benefit from student debt relief.
Thats the problem with the hyper-means-tested budget-austerity policy, it ignores tons of people in legitimate need because it believes that its preferable to let people suffer than to benefit some people who won't strictly require that help. Is letting people fall through the cracks really a worth making sure some other people who might not need help dont get it?
I disagree vehemently. The premise is that there is an overwhelming burden due to these loans, huge %'s defaulting etc. But reality is that a large portion of the total loan amount is from graduates with professional degrees. They earn significantly more over their careers, don't default and make out on this investment. "It's hard on people" is not some kind of policy angle that should be entertained. Someone with a bachelors degree earns a median income double someone with a high school diploma. Triple of those that don't have one. I still have not seen a study that refutes that old one pointing out college educated workers will earn a million dollars more than their undereducated competition in the job market over the course of their careers.
There is simply no justification to alleviate debt from the high earning individuals. There are loan forgiveness programs, loan repayment plans that allow payments to not exceed 10-15% of disposable income, down to 0$ for those that don't earn enough. Having debt hanging over you that will be forgiven at some point if you file paper work once a year and make minimal payments is not some societal ill that should be taking center stage.
On February 19 2021 15:46 Zambrah wrote:I'd also like to look at those numbers if you have any sources for them, I have a hard time imagining that 66% of defaults are coming from people who have less than 10,000 dollars in debt.
I'll check tomorrow if you want since it's late and I took the numbers off an old convo I had with someone. To give the other numbers i had in that, if you forgive those with 20k of debt, you would help 56.2% of borrowers, 214.1 billion total cost and that range covers 84% of all defaults. That's over half of all borrowers, nearly all defaulters and at a cost, what 1.4-1.5 trillion dollars less than total college debt relief?
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EPT
