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On October 29 2020 05:31 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 05:19 Shingi11 wrote:
Also in Texas a you have huge numbers of young voter so you know almost all of those are going to Biden. Why do you think it's "almost all"? I agree young voters will skew towards Biden more than other generations, but "almost all" requires some justification. There are going to be plenty of young conservatives coming from conservative families who won't vote for Biden (whether or not they vote for Trump, although plenty of that group will).
I think that is like the 18 to 30 age group. I am probley exaggerating a little bit Biden and Democrats trend to dominate that age group. I am on lunch on my phone right now so I can't look it up but I seem to recall Biden getting like 70% plus when that age group is mentioned. They just don't vote as often so even though dems dominate that section they are just not as important.
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On October 29 2020 05:31 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 05:19 Shingi11 wrote:
Also in Texas a you have huge numbers of young voter so you know almost all of those are going to Biden. Why do you think it's "almost all"? I agree young voters will skew towards Biden more than other generations, but "almost all" requires some justification. There are going to be plenty of young conservatives coming from conservative families who won't vote for Biden (whether or not they vote for Trump, although plenty of that group will).
There's plenty of data on this. Trump only wins young voters in five states. Five. He's tied in five others. These numbers were bad four years ago, but they're way worse now. His numbers have cratered in KY, for example, where he used to be like 20 points ahead and is now tied in the youth vote.
Not sure if this chart will embed :
![[image loading]](https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/7a0/cdc/979e5dc0cddf817210a7b105a75e96c217-axios-chart.w710.jpg)
18-34 year olds prefer Biden to Trump by 65-30% margins nationally.
edit: it's worse than this, actually : 63% to 25%
In an ominous sign for the GOP’s future viability in the Electoral College, young voters in light-red Sun Belt states are very Democratic, with those in Texas and Georgia backing Biden over Trump by roughly 20 points. In South Carolina, meanwhile, young voters lean blue by 13. Across this year’s most hotly contested battlegrounds — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — Biden’s lead among young voters never dips below 18 percentage points.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/2020-polls-young-voters-biden-trump-youth-turnout.html
Surveymonkey is a pretty low tier pollster, but they're fine for letting you know things when the margins are this large (I think they're off on average like 4 or 5 points? Would have to find the 538 article on it).
In Texas, as of Friday, 753,600 voters cast a ballot in the 2020 election. During the same time period in 2016, only 106,000 Texans younger than 30 had voted, according to the analysis, representing a 610% increase.
https://www.ksat.com/vote-2020/2020/10/27/the-youth-vote-in-texas-is-up-by-more-than-600-from-last-presidential-election/
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Alright, everyone, we are less than a week from the fateful day. Does everyone wanna post their election map predictions? Here is mine![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/9xecp8X.png)
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United States24784 Posts
If you are posting an election map, please explain your map (e.g., the swing/close states). Do not post a map with nearly zero discussion and zero plan to refer back to it later.
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My realistic projection. Trump takes FL,OH,TX,GA,IA.
GA due to general fuckery and suppression from Kemp, FL/OH/IA being legit wins, and TX possibly due to more fuckery (it's the one that's most uncertain in my mind).
Biden takes AZ and PA.
If that's the case then Trump only has a 1% chance to win. Would be very chaotic though, since PA counts its votes so late.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#GA:1,OH:1,IA:1,AZ:0,PA:0,FL:1
My hopes :
Biden gets 413 (Plasmid's map + ME2 basically) electoral votes. An absolutely, crushing, embarassing defeat for the GOP. Nothing else seems like it will get them to back off on their abhorrent current behavior as a party. We see the highest likely popular vote split : 58/42%
Anything past that is basically impossible, as the next three closest states are MS, Montana, and SC (though it is amusing that the chances on 538 of Biden taking those three if this does happen are >10%) .
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#AZ:0,IA:0,TX:0,OH:0,FL:0,KY:1,MO:1,GA:0,NC:0,VA:0
On October 29 2020 06:15 micronesia wrote:
If you are posting an election map, please explain your map (e.g., the swing/close states). Do not post a map with nearly zero discussion and zero plan to refer back to it later.
For some reason, you don't show up on liquiddota as a moderator. Had to hop over because I couldn't remember.
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![[image loading]](https://www.270towin.com/map-images/klXln)
There's a mountain of evidence that shows that Biden has quite a strong lead and is making a number of red states competitive. People have been consistently talking about Trump somehow defying the polls, but polling error could just as easily favor Biden. I think his win is ultimately going to be fairly comfortable.
Big bonus points if Biden picks up Georgia, Texas, and Ohio. If he does, it will be soul-crushing for the GOP.
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United States24784 Posts
On October 29 2020 06:34 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 06:15 micronesia wrote:
If you are posting an election map, please explain your map (e.g., the swing/close states). Do not post a map with nearly zero discussion and zero plan to refer back to it later. For some reason, you don't show up on liquiddota as a moderator. Had to hop over because I couldn't remember.
Ah thanks for letting me know about that.
For this thread, I considered posting a COVID map as my election map since the two are tracking pretty closely right now, but that would be setting a poor example. Apparently I could get away with that on LiquidDota since I'm not a moderator there...
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On October 29 2020 06:56 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 06:34 Nevuk wrote:On October 29 2020 06:15 micronesia wrote:
If you are posting an election map, please explain your map (e.g., the swing/close states). Do not post a map with nearly zero discussion and zero plan to refer back to it later. For some reason, you don't show up on liquiddota as a moderator. Had to hop over because I couldn't remember. Ah thanks for letting me know about that. For this thread, I considered posting a COVID map as my election map since the two are tracking pretty closely right now, but that would be setting a poor example. Apparently I could get away with that on LiquidDota since I'm not a moderator there...
I've also noticed this. There's actually a few - KwarK is not a mod here either, for example.
I always wondered what you guys did to get demoted.
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I am really curious to see Danglars and the rest of the conservative crews maps. I am convinced they get there stuff from strange alternate reality lol. If anything they keep the thread fresh since it seems like most here lean left to different degree
Edit
I guess Mohdoo map is pretty conservative and scary. You know Trump would overturn that map and we would have so much civil unrest. And 4 more years if trump.
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I told xDaunt to get a grip in 2016 the day before election day when he said Trump would win. I guess I'll shut up this time.
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I'd say my predictions are somewhere around Stratos_speAr and Nevuk's maps, though part of me yearns for plasmidghost's :D
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On October 29 2020 07:02 Shingi11 wrote:
I am really curious to see Danglars and the rest of the conservative crews maps. I am convinced they get there stuff from strange alternate reality lol. If anything they keep the thread fresh since it seems like most here lean left to different degree
Edit
I guess Mohdoo map is pretty conservative and scary. You know Trump would overturn that map and we would have so much civil unrest. And 4 more years if trump.
Just read my past posts, I already did offer as much guesstimation as I care to offer. I was very wrong about the 2016 election.
If you were wondering, I have the same view of the reality you inhabit and get your news from.
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On October 29 2020 07:14 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 07:02 Shingi11 wrote:
I am really curious to see Danglars and the rest of the conservative crews maps. I am convinced they get there stuff from strange alternate reality lol. If anything they keep the thread fresh since it seems like most here lean left to different degree
Edit
I guess Mohdoo map is pretty conservative and scary. You know Trump would overturn that map and we would have so much civil unrest. And 4 more years if trump. Just read my past posts, I already did offer as much guesstimation as I care to offer. I was very wrong about the 2016 election. If you were wondering, I have the same view of the reality you inhabit and get your news from.
I wanted to see it as a pretty picture though. I assume you have the rust belt going to trump with have around 300 is votes. While I think it unlikely if trump wins you are probably going to feel pretty vindicated. I think you where the only one who called a 2016 win.
My map is the same as Stratos_speAr, as much as I want it I dont see a blue Texas yet. My heart wants plasmidghost map though
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+ Show Spoiler +
Biden 306-232 Trump, with Biden recovering the big three states in the blue wall, and taking away Arizona and NC from the GOP in slim margins of <1 to 2 points. I'm not convinced Texas or Georgia will turn blue despite some encouraging numbers, and Florida is a hope trap for Democrats, especially after 2018. Pennsylvania will be close, but I think Biden will prevail 3-4 points ahead of Trump in the end. Popular vote I predict somewhere in the realm of Biden 52-44 Trump with Jorgensen taking 2% and the remainder a scattershot of various minor parties and write-ins. Going to be a nailbiter waiting on the Midwest to report on mail-ins and early votes.
As for the contested Senate seats, I'm confident Arizona, Colorado and Alabama will flip and leaning Democrats in Iowa, Maine and NC. Meanwhile, the Senate seats in Texas, Kentucky, SC, Montana, and the Georgia Perdue-Ossoff race will hold Republican.
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Norway28874 Posts
I didn't have the impression Danglars was particularly confident about a Trump win in 2016, nor in 2020. But rather that he's happy about the court and policy wins and for those reasons considers him a successful president (despite all his faults, some of which Danglars recognizes) even if he ends up only serving one term.
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United States10529 Posts
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/aBkuGa4.png)
I had Trump winning by even more than what he won by in 2016 (I had him winning NH and Nevada as well).
Light colors are the ones I'm not the most confident about, but I think Michigan and Wisconsin both polling at over 50% for Biden right now locks it in for me. Trump thrives on those undecided voters. I think states where he's close, he'll win the undecided voter count by about 1.5-2%.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://www.270towin.com/maps/Y2Alr.png)
