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United States10569 Posts
On October 29 2020 06:05 plasmidghost wrote:BLUE TEXAS but yeah, I think this is how it's going to end up. I could be way off, but I feel like there is going to be a reckoning for the GOP with this election. I think that we're going to have a blue wave. Reading over all the preliminary results, there's a bunch of indication that Trump could not expand his base since 2016. With early voting totals breaking records across the country, and with a bunch of polls showing that Biden is favored in early voting, I predict that about the same number of people who voted on Election Day in 2016 will vote on Election Day this year at about the same percentages for Trump, not giving Trump enough votes in any of the swing states (I defined it as being within five on 538 at this moment), with the exception of the swing CD in Maine 02 since Trump just held a really there in the past week. + Show Spoiler +
All I can say about this map is: god damn this is bold af. At this point, Missouri becomes a swing state lol.
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On October 29 2020 07:58 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 06:05 plasmidghost wrote:BLUE TEXAS but yeah, I think this is how it's going to end up. I could be way off, but I feel like there is going to be a reckoning for the GOP with this election. I think that we're going to have a blue wave. Reading over all the preliminary results, there's a bunch of indication that Trump could not expand his base since 2016. With early voting totals breaking records across the country, and with a bunch of polls showing that Biden is favored in early voting, I predict that about the same number of people who voted on Election Day in 2016 will vote on Election Day this year at about the same percentages for Trump, not giving Trump enough votes in any of the swing states (I defined it as being within five on 538 at this moment), with the exception of the swing CD in Maine 02 since Trump just held a really there in the past week. + Show Spoiler + All I can say about this map is: god damn this is bold af. At this point, Missouri becomes a swing state lol.
God what a map that would be though. You know the dems are getting 56 seats with that map. It would be glorious for rebus to get there just desserts for all the crap they pulled.
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United States10569 Posts
On October 29 2020 08:08 Shingi11 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 07:58 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2020 06:05 plasmidghost wrote:BLUE TEXAS but yeah, I think this is how it's going to end up. I could be way off, but I feel like there is going to be a reckoning for the GOP with this election. I think that we're going to have a blue wave. Reading over all the preliminary results, there's a bunch of indication that Trump could not expand his base since 2016. With early voting totals breaking records across the country, and with a bunch of polls showing that Biden is favored in early voting, I predict that about the same number of people who voted on Election Day in 2016 will vote on Election Day this year at about the same percentages for Trump, not giving Trump enough votes in any of the swing states (I defined it as being within five on 538 at this moment), with the exception of the swing CD in Maine 02 since Trump just held a really there in the past week. + Show Spoiler + All I can say about this map is: god damn this is bold af. At this point, Missouri becomes a swing state lol. God what a map that would be though. You know the dems are getting 56 seats with that map. It would be glorious for rebus to get there just desserts for all the crap they pulled.
What is the Senate map looking like right now? I only know that Arizona seem like the solid blue seats that are flipping. Seems like a lot of close races, especially with the NC seat being a complete tossup with every poll being within 2 points on either side.
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On October 29 2020 08:18 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 08:08 Shingi11 wrote:On October 29 2020 07:58 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2020 06:05 plasmidghost wrote:BLUE TEXAS but yeah, I think this is how it's going to end up. I could be way off, but I feel like there is going to be a reckoning for the GOP with this election. I think that we're going to have a blue wave. Reading over all the preliminary results, there's a bunch of indication that Trump could not expand his base since 2016. With early voting totals breaking records across the country, and with a bunch of polls showing that Biden is favored in early voting, I predict that about the same number of people who voted on Election Day in 2016 will vote on Election Day this year at about the same percentages for Trump, not giving Trump enough votes in any of the swing states (I defined it as being within five on 538 at this moment), with the exception of the swing CD in Maine 02 since Trump just held a really there in the past week. + Show Spoiler + All I can say about this map is: god damn this is bold af. At this point, Missouri becomes a swing state lol. God what a map that would be though. You know the dems are getting 56 seats with that map. It would be glorious for rebus to get there just desserts for all the crap they pulled. What is the Senate map looking like right now? I only know that Arizona seem like the solid blue seats that are flipping. Seems like a lot of close races, especially with the NC seat being a complete tossup with every poll being within 2 points on either side.
538's senate forecast:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/
Dems are currently favoured to take control of the senate, if they can get 54+ seats so that they can afford to lose a couple of senators, that would be ideal.
I'd love for democrats to blow out both presidency at 400+ electoral votes and 55+ seats, but I find that pretty unlikely. Hopefully the middle of the road 320ish electoral votes and 52 senate seats happens.
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United States10569 Posts
On October 29 2020 08:26 Lmui wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 08:18 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2020 08:08 Shingi11 wrote:On October 29 2020 07:58 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2020 06:05 plasmidghost wrote:BLUE TEXAS but yeah, I think this is how it's going to end up. I could be way off, but I feel like there is going to be a reckoning for the GOP with this election. I think that we're going to have a blue wave. Reading over all the preliminary results, there's a bunch of indication that Trump could not expand his base since 2016. With early voting totals breaking records across the country, and with a bunch of polls showing that Biden is favored in early voting, I predict that about the same number of people who voted on Election Day in 2016 will vote on Election Day this year at about the same percentages for Trump, not giving Trump enough votes in any of the swing states (I defined it as being within five on 538 at this moment), with the exception of the swing CD in Maine 02 since Trump just held a really there in the past week. + Show Spoiler + All I can say about this map is: god damn this is bold af. At this point, Missouri becomes a swing state lol. God what a map that would be though. You know the dems are getting 56 seats with that map. It would be glorious for rebus to get there just desserts for all the crap they pulled. What is the Senate map looking like right now? I only know that Arizona seem like the solid blue seats that are flipping. Seems like a lot of close races, especially with the NC seat being a complete tossup with every poll being within 2 points on either side. 538's senate forecast: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/Dems are currently favoured to take control of the senate, if they can get 54+ seats so that they can afford to lose a couple of senators, that would be ideal. I'd love for democrats to blow out both presidency at 400+ electoral votes and 55+ seats, but I find that pretty unlikely. Hopefully the middle of the road 320ish electoral votes and 52 senate seats happens.
I just don't anticipate that top of the ballot Presidential elections transition as much down to Senate/House as much as people anticipate, so I'm not holding my breath on the Dems taking back the Senate yet until I see it happen. There are way too many close polls and those polls are generally far more accurate than the Presidential polls from at least my recollection.
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On October 29 2020 08:18 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 08:08 Shingi11 wrote:On October 29 2020 07:58 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2020 06:05 plasmidghost wrote:BLUE TEXAS but yeah, I think this is how it's going to end up. I could be way off, but I feel like there is going to be a reckoning for the GOP with this election. I think that we're going to have a blue wave. Reading over all the preliminary results, there's a bunch of indication that Trump could not expand his base since 2016. With early voting totals breaking records across the country, and with a bunch of polls showing that Biden is favored in early voting, I predict that about the same number of people who voted on Election Day in 2016 will vote on Election Day this year at about the same percentages for Trump, not giving Trump enough votes in any of the swing states (I defined it as being within five on 538 at this moment), with the exception of the swing CD in Maine 02 since Trump just held a really there in the past week. + Show Spoiler + All I can say about this map is: god damn this is bold af. At this point, Missouri becomes a swing state lol. God what a map that would be though. You know the dems are getting 56 seats with that map. It would be glorious for rebus to get there just desserts for all the crap they pulled. What is the Senate map looking like right now? I only know that Arizona seem like the solid blue seats that are flipping. Seems like a lot of close races, especially with the NC seat being a complete tossup with every poll being within 2 points on either side.
It's close. 75-25 dem favored on 538.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/
The senate model they use factors in fundamentals a lot more than their presidential race, so there are some perplexing things on there (such as Collins having a 36% chance when she's not led in a poll in months).
23 incumbent GOP, 13 incumbent Dem : not as bad as 2016 was for dems or 2022 will be for R's, but still bad for them and part of why democrats have a chance even as unfavorable as the senate system is for them.
CO, AZ, Maine are likely dem pickups. GA is a somewhere between lean-likely R pickup.
Then there a ton of very close races and a few outside flips (like McConnell).
538 has 15 races where the leaders has <90% chance of winning, then another 5 at somewhere between 91-98%. So it's an unusually competitive year
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Dems are currently favoured to take control of the senate, if they can get 54+ seats so that they can afford to lose a couple of senators
Only if they nuke the filibuster, otherwise Biden passes nothing Republicans don't approve of.
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United States10569 Posts
On October 29 2020 08:30 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 08:18 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2020 08:08 Shingi11 wrote:On October 29 2020 07:58 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2020 06:05 plasmidghost wrote:BLUE TEXAS but yeah, I think this is how it's going to end up. I could be way off, but I feel like there is going to be a reckoning for the GOP with this election. I think that we're going to have a blue wave. Reading over all the preliminary results, there's a bunch of indication that Trump could not expand his base since 2016. With early voting totals breaking records across the country, and with a bunch of polls showing that Biden is favored in early voting, I predict that about the same number of people who voted on Election Day in 2016 will vote on Election Day this year at about the same percentages for Trump, not giving Trump enough votes in any of the swing states (I defined it as being within five on 538 at this moment), with the exception of the swing CD in Maine 02 since Trump just held a really there in the past week. + Show Spoiler + All I can say about this map is: god damn this is bold af. At this point, Missouri becomes a swing state lol. God what a map that would be though. You know the dems are getting 56 seats with that map. It would be glorious for rebus to get there just desserts for all the crap they pulled. What is the Senate map looking like right now? I only know that Arizona seem like the solid blue seats that are flipping. Seems like a lot of close races, especially with the NC seat being a complete tossup with every poll being within 2 points on either side. It's close. 75-25 dem favored on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/The senate model they use factors in fundamentals a lot more than their presidential race, so there are some perplexing things on there (such as Collins having a 36% chance when she's not led in a poll in months). 23 incumbent GOP, 13 incumbent Dem : not as bad as 2016 was for dems or 2022 will be for R's, but still bad for them and part of why democrats have a chance even as unfavorable as the senate system is for them. CO, AZ, Maine are likely dem pickups. GA is a somewhere between lean-likely R pickup. Then there a ton of very close races and a few outside flips (like McConnell). 538 has 15 races where the leaders has <90% chance of winning, then another 5 at somewhere between 91-98%. So it's an unusually competitive year
Yeah, obviously I really hope Dems win so we can end the stupid McConnell era as majority leader. I hate Schumer but right now I'd take him over turtle man any day of the week. And hopefully Breyer retires immediately so we can replace him with a good justice ASAP
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On October 29 2020 08:29 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 08:26 Lmui wrote:On October 29 2020 08:18 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2020 08:08 Shingi11 wrote:On October 29 2020 07:58 FlaShFTW wrote:On October 29 2020 06:05 plasmidghost wrote:BLUE TEXAS but yeah, I think this is how it's going to end up. I could be way off, but I feel like there is going to be a reckoning for the GOP with this election. I think that we're going to have a blue wave. Reading over all the preliminary results, there's a bunch of indication that Trump could not expand his base since 2016. With early voting totals breaking records across the country, and with a bunch of polls showing that Biden is favored in early voting, I predict that about the same number of people who voted on Election Day in 2016 will vote on Election Day this year at about the same percentages for Trump, not giving Trump enough votes in any of the swing states (I defined it as being within five on 538 at this moment), with the exception of the swing CD in Maine 02 since Trump just held a really there in the past week. + Show Spoiler + All I can say about this map is: god damn this is bold af. At this point, Missouri becomes a swing state lol. God what a map that would be though. You know the dems are getting 56 seats with that map. It would be glorious for rebus to get there just desserts for all the crap they pulled. What is the Senate map looking like right now? I only know that Arizona seem like the solid blue seats that are flipping. Seems like a lot of close races, especially with the NC seat being a complete tossup with every poll being within 2 points on either side. 538's senate forecast: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/Dems are currently favoured to take control of the senate, if they can get 54+ seats so that they can afford to lose a couple of senators, that would be ideal. I'd love for democrats to blow out both presidency at 400+ electoral votes and 55+ seats, but I find that pretty unlikely. Hopefully the middle of the road 320ish electoral votes and 52 senate seats happens. I just don't anticipate that top of the ballot Presidential elections transition as much down to Senate/House as much as people anticipate, so I'm not holding my breath on the Dems taking back the Senate yet until I see it happen. There are way too many close polls and those polls are generally far more accurate than the Presidential polls from at least my recollection.
From what I've read, statistical analysis shows that voters have trended away from split-ticket voting over the last couple generations, meaning that a big win for Biden is more likely to translate to a Democratic Senate as well.
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Northern Ireland27464 Posts
I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view?
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United States24805 Posts
On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote:
I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view?
If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft.
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On October 29 2020 09:43 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote:
I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view? If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft.
We assume that is how it going to work. Trump has not acknowledged a peaceful transfer of power
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On October 29 2020 09:54 Shingi11 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 09:43 micronesia wrote:On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote:
I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view? If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft. We assume that is how it going to work. Trump has not acknowledged a peaceful transfer of power
Whether he likes it or not, he'd lose power on Inauguration Day. Biden would become president, regardless of where he's sworn in or even if there's no public display.
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On October 29 2020 09:54 Shingi11 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 09:43 micronesia wrote:On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote:
I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view? If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft. We assume that is how it going to work. Trump has not acknowledged a peaceful transfer of power
He doesn’t get the choice. Presidency expires rather than ends. He’s not able to remain president unless states agree to it. The whole transition of power is just a media ploy to stir up nonexistent shit
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US officials are pretty much telling voters to not vote by mail at this point due to its crippled capability. Vote in person or use a drop box.
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Northern Ireland27464 Posts
On October 29 2020 09:43 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote:
I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view? If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft.
4 years ago I made a Facebook post in the early hours of the morning that prior polling data and early exit data indicated Trump was done and I was away to bed to return tomorrow to mock the MAGA hat wearers. The next day was not especially enjoyable, especially with the hangover.
Does the sitting President have to attend an inauguration or do they just concede and thats them done?
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On October 29 2020 10:25 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On October 29 2020 09:43 micronesia wrote:On October 29 2020 09:37 WombaT wrote:
I’m going for a much less well-reasoned and interesting approach by eschewing drawing my own map and just saying Biden will win IMO.
I can’t recall from memory but how does the transition work from a ceremonial point of view? If Biden wins, Trump remains president until inauguration day in January. On that day, Biden is sworn in as president. Most importantly, inauguration day is a federal holiday for the Washington DC workforce due to the chaos in the city. Four years ago I used that day to play starcraft. 4 years ago I made a Facebook post in the early hours of the morning that prior polling data and early exit data indicated Trump was done and I was away to bed to return tomorrow to mock the MAGA hat wearers. The next day was not especially enjoyable, especially with the hangover. Does the sitting President have to attend an inauguration or do they just concede and thats them done?
Trump wouldn't have to be at Biden's inauguration ceremony, or else - knowing Trump - he would just stay home and.... what, Biden couldn't be president? Fortunately, that's not a thing.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/3u6LQf2.png)
