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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 2194

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

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LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
March 18 2020 17:12 GMT
#43861
Oh cool, we hit another circuit breaker on the stock market for yet another 15 minute halt. That's four now.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32743 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-03-18 17:35:41
March 18 2020 17:19 GMT
#43862
Feels like a critical juncture moment for Trump's reelection odds now with COVID-19. If the government response does end up effective, Trump can take credit for guiding the nation through a nation-wide crisis that is the equivalent to war. It would dissuade criticism that he doesn't listen to advisors or has failed to be presidential when going through his Katrina moment. Say COVID-19 does get contained by late spring or the summer, I think people's memories are fairly short and it will be harder to press Trump on his failures in the fall when the pandemic has faded from the US's collective mind or most of the country can agree he did an alright job.

But if it does run amok and the response is ineffective, I can see people on the fence between Trump and Biden quickly losing confidence in Trump and going for Biden. Simultaneously, there's a real economic storm brewing, and if it lasts well until November, that would topple down the economic pitch he can sell to independents and moderate Republicans who are unsure on Trump or Biden, even if it isn't exactly his fault.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18838 Posts
March 18 2020 17:27 GMT
#43863
The extent of the federal government’s culpability in all this will be hotly contested for years to come, but I’m fairly certain it will be shown that significant, avoidable missteps in the early days cost lives.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23451 Posts
March 18 2020 17:32 GMT
#43864
On March 19 2020 02:27 farvacola wrote:
The extent of the federal government’s culpability in all this will be hotly contested for years to come, but I’m fairly certain it will be shown that significant, avoidable missteps in the early days cost lives.

There's going to be smoke for everyone. No question Trump's denial, and delayed reactions will cost thousands of lives but he won't be alone.

Tom Perez urging the primary states to vote despite the pandemic and Chicago's corona congo line at the polls will land squarely on the Democratic party for example.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18838 Posts
March 18 2020 17:37 GMT
#43865
No doubt, and as much as it pains me to say, Mike fucking DeWine is gonna carry the standard for how to take decisive action. Folks who thought the political landscape was topsy turvy when Trump took office ain’t seen nothing yet.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-03-18 17:47:13
March 18 2020 17:38 GMT
#43866
I think the sound bites of Trump calling the virus a hoax will play on loop through September and October, no matter what. But I also think we're in a place where the current attitudes among partisans about handling of the crisis (which break down heavily along party lines) are unlikely to change, no matter what happens-so much is going to happen that you'll be able to confirm your beliefs that "the other side" reacted poorly and "your side" reacted well, no matter who you are. The only question is if swing voters' attitudes will be similarly set in stone.
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-03-18 17:44:29
March 18 2020 17:39 GMT
#43867
De Blasio's crazy bad reactions won't help either, but most of the democratic Governors seem to be doing pretty well now. Local jurisdictions are all a crap shoot.

Really, Trump should be blamed for the underlying weakness of the economy and removing some of the tools for a recession, but not for how bad it's going to get under Coronavirus. He will be, though. Both because presidents are ALWAYS blamed for it, and because he tried to take credit for the strength of the economy CONSTANTLY (which is why most presidents don't mention a strong economy outside of the SOTU).

The jump in unemployment applications is approaching Depression levels in Ohio, and I expect that trend to widen as states force through necessary quarantine measures.

There's going to be so many deaths from this that I don't think it will resonate with people, to be honest. Or at least not as strongly as the economy suffering. What is the saying, 1 death is a tragedy, 10,000 is just a statistic?

On March 19 2020 02:37 farvacola wrote:
No doubt, and as much as it pains me to say, Mike fucking DeWine is gonna carry the standard for how to take decisive action. Folks who thought the political landscape was topsy turvy when Trump took office ain’t seen nothing yet.

I'm a bit torn on it. I feel like he's doing what I'd consider bare minimum levels - and he only looks good because everyone else is doing so poorly. For instance, small businesses are basically all going under and his solution was to offer a low interest loan. The issue is that there was, last I checked, a 6 week waiting period for approval. Additionally, the loan would need to be no interest or just a mortgage freeze to actually motivate most small businesses to not just close. He's offering the perfect republican solutions like that - low interest loans rather than mortgage freezes or cash handouts.

Now, overall he's doing amazing compared to say, Cuomo or De Blasio. Though I question his need to go on Hugh Hewitt's show.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23451 Posts
March 18 2020 18:01 GMT
#43868
I'm curious when people think things will more or less go back to how they were before this Corona Virus pandemic?

Poll: I think things will be "back to normal" in the US in:

never going "back to normal" (11)
 
34%

6-12 months (10)
 
31%

more than a year (9)
 
28%

3-4 months (2)
 
6%

6-8 weeks (0)
 
0%

32 total votes

You must be logged in to vote in this poll.

☐ 6-8 weeks
☐ 3-4 months
☐ 6-12 months
☐ more than a year
☐ never going "back to normal"


"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-03-18 18:11:35
March 18 2020 18:11 GMT
#43869
Couple Coronavirus updates per CNN reporter. Things I think everyone has asked for and expected to happen. Foreclosures/evictions halted until end of April, Doctors allowed to work across state lines (this would mean more if it also includes Nurses etc.)



On that poll, GH, I doubt things go back to how they were, so I put that. Return to the new normal in probably 4-6 months, I think.
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada8989 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-03-18 18:13:15
March 18 2020 18:11 GMT
#43870
Well that's pretty great!

On the polls, it depend what you mean by "back to normal". Like did thing get back to normal after 9/11?
I don't think society will crumble if that's the question.
Writerhttp://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
March 18 2020 18:15 GMT
#43871
I think things will stop breaking in new ways in the next 6-12 months, and the next several years will be rebuilding to a "new normal." I find the prospect of return to a 2010-2019 status quo to be very unlikely at this point - the world is changing out from under us.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23451 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-03-18 18:22:53
March 18 2020 18:21 GMT
#43872
I'd say basically like after 9/11. So still constantly on the verge of collapse with a lingering fear of 'aftershocks' but largely (other than a somewhat unnoticed increased police state) unchanged.

So no dramatic new legislation addressing the drastic gap in worker rights, medical care, etc... that extends beyond the immediate crisis would be back to normal.

Things like making permanent a significant portion of the emergency relief stuff would be enough to qualify as "never going back" imo. So would societal collapse, or fascism.

On the announcements from the Feds they are just going to have to extend it indefinitely or use the police/army to kick people out. If for some reason people can't pay their rent they 100% should make the "owner" remove them by force imo.
On March 19 2020 03:15 LegalLord wrote:
I think things will stop breaking in new ways in the next 6-12 months, and the next several years will be rebuilding to a "new normal." I find the prospect of return to a 2010-2019 status quo to be very unlikely at this point - the world is changing out from under us.


I'd put this under never going back or more than a year depending on how different one feels it will be from 2010-2019.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22089 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-03-18 21:41:28
March 18 2020 21:20 GMT
#43873
Trump basically just put himself over individual rights with the passing of that act. He can force businesses to work under threat of confiscation. He's also the first to enact measures that put the US on par with China.

Makes you wonder about one question for this crisis. Cui bono?

Also fuck this warlike rhetoric everywhere in the news, even Merkel is digging up WW2 comparisons. It's like they want to turn the netflix n' chill gen into a bunch of special forces.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18838 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-03-18 22:11:15
March 18 2020 22:10 GMT
#43874
The US has had periods of authoritarian governance that compare readily with China (and surprise surprise, they coincide with national security crises), so its not even remotely accurate to claim that Trump is the "first" to do anything other than deal with this unique crisis. And the qui bono frame of reference only works when there is some measure of background stability that anchors the ostensibly self-advantageous choices allegedly being made. It is a big stretch to suppose that that stability has existed anywhere at anytime with reference to the pandemic.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22089 Posts
March 18 2020 22:31 GMT
#43875
On March 19 2020 07:10 farvacola wrote:
The US has had periods of authoritarian governance that compare readily with China (and surprise surprise, they coincide with national security crises), so its not even remotely accurate to claim that Trump is the "first" to do anything other than deal with this unique crisis. And the qui bono frame of reference only works when there is some measure of background stability that anchors the ostensibly self-advantageous choices allegedly being made. It is a big stretch to suppose that that stability has existed anywhere at anytime with reference to the pandemic.


What I meant to say is that he's the first in the western world to adopt these measures in the current crisis.
Sure they've been in place before, but for wars, not pandemics.

I guess I'd feel better about it if it were Obama in his place, not a guy who seems unstable most of the time and will chase every opportunity to cement his power.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18838 Posts
March 18 2020 22:43 GMT
#43876
That much I can agree with, Trump's modus operandi is not encouraging.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
JohnDelaney
Profile Joined November 2019
Ireland73 Posts
March 18 2020 22:45 GMT
#43877
On March 19 2020 07:31 Vivax wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 19 2020 07:10 farvacola wrote:
The US has had periods of authoritarian governance that compare readily with China (and surprise surprise, they coincide with national security crises), so its not even remotely accurate to claim that Trump is the "first" to do anything other than deal with this unique crisis. And the qui bono frame of reference only works when there is some measure of background stability that anchors the ostensibly self-advantageous choices allegedly being made. It is a big stretch to suppose that that stability has existed anywhere at anytime with reference to the pandemic.


What I meant to say is that he's the first in the western world to adopt these measures in the current crisis.

Not really, Spain nationalised all their private hospitals.

Source: Business Insider
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-03-18 22:52:02
March 18 2020 22:50 GMT
#43878
Part of the reason for the wartime comparisons is that a lot of the steps that need to be taken would be considered unthinkable outside of a war. Suspending very basic constitutional rights, for instance, is generally considered OK in times of war (see Lincoln and Habeaus Corpus, FDR and internment camps ). Heck, Wilson's propaganda and press limitations during WW1 also allowed for limiting freedom of the press to report on the last big pandemic. A history degree or poli-sci one are more useful for predicting what's going to happen than a legal one is currently.
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada8989 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-03-18 23:05:23
March 18 2020 22:56 GMT
#43879
On March 19 2020 06:20 Vivax wrote:
Trump basically just put himself over individual rights with the passing of that act. He can force businesses to work under threat of confiscation. He's also the first to enact measures that put the US on par with China.

Makes you wonder about one question for this crisis. Cui bono?

Also fuck this warlike rhetoric everywhere in the news, even Merkel is digging up WW2 comparisons. It's like they want to turn the netflix n' chill gen into a bunch of special forces.


Well, they are asking for probably a months long effort from their population that will necessarely have a very big impact of the living quality of many and if it goes as plan cost the life of many tens of thousand persons in a short spawn. It's not insane to ask everyone for their solidarity, self restrain and help. I'm really not a fan of the wartime rethoric, but depending how thing goes a big part of the "Netflix and chill" generation, may be looking mass employement, parent and grand-parent dying in hospital, missing their degree because the school are close or trying to manage their kids at home while still having to go to work in essential services.

Also, yes Trump is a moron, and I'm deeply scarred he screw everything up for the after crisis.

Not saying we shouldn't be vigilant about the way government are handling things and the risk on the long or short time well being of individual in the response to the crisis, but we should also be aware of certain opportunity that could emerge, for example the re-nationalization and reinforcement of public health services across the globe.
Writerhttp://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22089 Posts
March 18 2020 23:05 GMT
#43880
On March 19 2020 07:56 Nakajin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 19 2020 06:20 Vivax wrote:
Trump basically just put himself over individual rights with the passing of that act. He can force businesses to work under threat of confiscation. He's also the first to enact measures that put the US on par with China.

Makes you wonder about one question for this crisis. Cui bono?

Also fuck this warlike rhetoric everywhere in the news, even Merkel is digging up WW2 comparisons. It's like they want to turn the netflix n' chill gen into a bunch of special forces.


Well, they are asking for probably a months long effort from their population that will necessarely have a very big impact of the living quality of many and if it goes as plan cost the life of many tens of thousand persons in a short spawn. It's not insane to ask everyone for their solidarity, self restrain and help. I'm really not a fan of the wartime rethoric, but depending how thing goes a big part of the "Netflix and chill" generation, may be looking mass employement, parent and grand-parent dying in hospital, missing their degree because the school are close or trying to manage their kids at homd while still having to go to work in essential services.


Hm.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/2019-had-the-most-ceo-departures-on-record-with-more-than-1600.html#:~:text=2019 was the year of,Challenger, Gray, & Christmas.

I have this nagging feeling somehow that most of these guys are somewhere on a pacific island or offshore paradise or equivalent not giving a damn about what the average person has to endure "for the greater good".

In other terms, while a catalyst for the economic downturn might have been this virus, it isn't the main cause.
The current policies are very supportive of captains being the first to abandon ship and go AWOL.
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