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On December 23 2018 12:25 KwarK wrote:
Meanwhile the SP500 dropped 18%. About $5,000,000,000,000 in investor funds lost as the markets lose faith in Trump.
The drop is getting large now. Lower every day,vix 34.
Its almost like markets expect something bad.
Will it go all the way back to 18k when trump entered the white house or will it bouce somewhere.
Not a market to have big positions,unless you like to gamble.
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You have to work real hard to fuck the market up on Xmass Eve. People are actively trying not to do lots of work right now. I would have to break out my super emergency personal cell phone numbers list just to get a client on the phone right now. But Trump and his goons manage to do the impossible.
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On December 25 2018 02:12 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On December 23 2018 12:25 KwarK wrote:
Meanwhile the SP500 dropped 18%. About $5,000,000,000,000 in investor funds lost as the markets lose faith in Trump. The drop is getting large now. Lower every day,vix 34. Its almost like markets expect something bad. Will it go all the way back to 18k when trump entered the white house or will it bouce somewhere. Not a market to have big positions,unless you like to gamble.
I will also point that although there is an expected annual up and down to the market mid december is usually an uptick in the market. December is rarely unkind to that market.
As it lines up with taxes, quarterly filings and expectations in peak selling times of the year.
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https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1076976818173943809?s=20
Just as the nobel price winner in economy Ian Bremmer tweeted, I think this have to be one of the most stupid ways to calm down the markets. It is introducing a huge fear into the market, of a thing no one feared. It is like saying "Just go and relax in the car. Oh and I have absolutely no plans of shooting you." Even if he/she said you won't get shot, you will start worrying about it. It is like whispering fire in a crowded theater. No one was afraid of liquidity crisis before now.
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Just wait till tax season when people figure out that the "tax cut" actually didn't help them at all.
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That might well be the most disturbing tweet i have read from Trump, I have to say. What kind of a leader says “poor me” ffs?
Merry Christmas anyway folks. The guy has nukes so let’s just hope it ain’t the last one.
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On December 25 2018 03:56 ticklishmusic wrote:
Just wait till tax season when people figure out that the "tax cut" actually didn't help them at all.
Yep, that doubled standard deduction swallowing up all the benefits for itemizing for most middle income earners is gonna be quite the reality check for many.
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United States24730 Posts
I think the tax changes actually help me for this year (probably not future years), but if I remember correctly, won't the provisions that are helpful to a chunk of 'regular' Americans like 2018 me automatically expire after a set number of years, whereas the provisions that help the super rich are permanent?
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On December 25 2018 04:01 micronesia wrote:
I think the tax changes actually help me for this year (probably not future years), but if I remember correctly, won't the provisions that are helpful to a chunk of 'regular' Americans like 2018 me automatically expire after a set number of years, whereas the provisions that help the super rich are permanent?
Kinda.... The corporate tax cuts are permanent, the individual ones are not. So in 10 years time youll be paying the same tax rate as 2017 without the benefits you used to have (if you lived in a high tax state that is)
Your company though will always be at 21% now
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United States43197 Posts
Tax changes help pretty much everyone. But honestly it’s pretty hard not to help everyone when you’re spending a trillion fucking dollars of borrowed money. I mean shit, if that’s the benchmark then the Democrats should run with a 0% tax platform.
The lion’s share of the cuts went to the very rich but few people lost because so much borrowed money was being spent in lieu of taxing the populace.
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On December 25 2018 04:07 KwarK wrote:
Tax changes help pretty much everyone. But honestly it’s pretty hard not to help everyone when you’re spending a trillion fucking dollars of borrowed money. I mean shit, if that’s the benchmark then the Democrats should run with a 0% tax platform.
The lion’s share of the cuts went to the very rich but few people lost because so much borrowed money was being spent in lieu of taxing the populace.
There's also the issue of "If everyone gets richer no one does", especially if the dollar doesn't strengthen, which it certainly has not done so far.
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On December 25 2018 04:05 IyMoon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 25 2018 04:01 micronesia wrote:
I think the tax changes actually help me for this year (probably not future years), but if I remember correctly, won't the provisions that are helpful to a chunk of 'regular' Americans like 2018 me automatically expire after a set number of years, whereas the provisions that help the super rich are permanent? Kinda.... The corporate tax cuts are permanent, the individual ones are not. So in 10 years time youll be paying the same tax rate as 2017 without the benefits you used to have (if you lived in a high tax state that is) Your company though will always be at 21% now And if I remember right the entire package is 'revenue neutral' over a period of 10 years because it was passed under Reconciliation.
So, everyone gets a tax cut now. One part expires and the other part does not. and the end result is 0.
I'll let you do the math on what that means for your taxes in the long term.
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On December 25 2018 03:07 Neneu wrote:https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1076976818173943809?s=20Just as the nobel price winner in economy Ian Bremmer tweeted, I think this have to be one of the most stupid ways to calm down the markets. It is introducing a huge fear into the market, of a thing no one feared. It is like saying "Just go and relax in the car. Oh and I have absolutely no plans of shooting you." Even if he/she said you won't get shot, you will start worrying about it. It is like whispering fire in a crowded theater. No one was afraid of liquidity crisis before now.
Yes that looks a bit like a set up,mnuchin knows better. Maybe trump did ask him to do it.
Edit:trump also did post a few bad tweets again about the chairman of the few I see now.
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On December 25 2018 03:59 Biff The Understudy wrote:
That might well be the most disturbing tweet i have read from Trump, I have to say. What kind of a leader says “poor me” ffs?
I initially took the "poor me" thing to be sarcastic or as a joke, but then I realized who said this and came to the conclusion that he's probably serious and is actually pitying himself.
He's the worst. Just the worst.
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On December 25 2018 04:26 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On December 25 2018 04:05 IyMoon wrote:On December 25 2018 04:01 micronesia wrote:
I think the tax changes actually help me for this year (probably not future years), but if I remember correctly, won't the provisions that are helpful to a chunk of 'regular' Americans like 2018 me automatically expire after a set number of years, whereas the provisions that help the super rich are permanent? Kinda.... The corporate tax cuts are permanent, the individual ones are not. So in 10 years time youll be paying the same tax rate as 2017 without the benefits you used to have (if you lived in a high tax state that is) Your company though will always be at 21% now And if I remember right the entire package is 'revenue neutral' over a period of 10 years because it was passed under Reconciliation. So, everyone gets a tax cut now. One part expires and the other part does not. and the end result is 0. I'll let you do the math on what that means for your taxes in the long term.
Wassn't it rev neutral because of the deductions they did away with. When our tax rate goes back up in 10 years those deductions don't come back right?
In all fairness I could just be VERY wrong about the whole thing
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On December 25 2018 03:59 Biff The Understudy wrote:That might well be the most disturbing tweet i have read from Trump, I have to say. What kind of a leader says “poor me” ffs? Merry Christmas anyway folks. The guy has nukes so let’s just hope it ain’t the last one. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1077255770725601280
This is the presidential equivalent of burning down your own house and asking for sympathy and donations to fix it.
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United States43197 Posts
It's politically very difficult to let temporary tax cuts expire. Especially when you passed the tax cuts at the peak of an expansionary economic phase and you plan to reverse them during the subsequent contraction.
Describing the tax bill as revenue neutral is basically false. If it was revenue neutral it wouldn't require a shitton of borrowing to keep the lights on. Nobody believes the US is going to start running a surplus and paying down the debt in a few years.
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I'm pretty sure it wasn't revenue neutral at all. If I'm remembering this correctly, the reconciliation process allows the bill to not be revenue neutral, but caps the possible deficit it can create beyond a 10 year term, and Republicans brought the bill under that cap by making the tax cuts for normal people expire in 10 years.
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On December 25 2018 06:05 Kyadytim wrote:
I'm pretty sure it wasn't revenue neutral at all. If I'm remembering this correctly, the reconciliation process allows the bill to not be revenue neutral, but caps the possible deficit it can create beyond a 10 year term, and Republicans brought the bill under that cap by making the tax cuts for normal people expire in 10 years. Yeah my bad, it must be neutral after 10 years, which is managed by increasing individual taxes to pay for the permanent cuts, which makes it an even more stupid measure then I thought it was.
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EPT
