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On December 25 2018 06:46 JimmiC wrote: Another record. Biggest Dow fall ever on Christmas eve 653 points! Seems like the government shutdown is going to cost a lot more than 5,7 billion
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Imagine the stock market with proper tax rates. If Trump announced next month that taxed would be increased to reduce the deficit, it would be a blood bath. The stock market is falling even while a force that shouldn't be there is pushing it up really hard.
People say that the stock market doesn't matter. Yes, it is not real money. But if the stock market is high, the whole economy acts as if that virtual money is actually there. Now that we know it was never there, there will be a reckoning in the real economy in the months to come.
Imagine Trump's approval rate if he had Bush' economic crash rather than Obama's boom.
It is also scary that there is no one left anymore to trigger article 25. And maybe also a good thing, because the voters need to be blamed for voting wrong and they need to be forced to go back on their vote. Mueller of course is a Republican and part of the political elite. While be is probably doing a thorough job, he is also probably deliberately losing the battle of public opinion. Just look at Mueller's approval rating.
Even if Trump was a democrat (well, he is a lifelong democrat, but I mean if he was officially a democratic president), then it would still be really hard for Mueller to come out with a report "Yes, Trump was always a mob boss who has been kept afloat with Russian money for the last 3 decades. And yes, Putin 'ordered' him to run for president and he has been a Russian agent all that time." It just cannot happen. The US cannot admit to that. It is just too emberrasing. So while they probably want to get rid of Trump, they cannot admit this to be true, if it were true.
So I don't know why people put so much trust in Mueller. Mueller will put Roger Stone in jail and blame Stone for everything. They will force Trump not to run again by dropping charges against his children.
Imagine if Mueller came out and said "Trump colluded with the Russians even before he announced running for president and Trump took orders from Putin while being president." then imagine an impeachment procedure. The base will just call it the 'deep state' and a 'Clinton conspiracy' and still support him. And no one will have to change. Trump is the symptom, not the cause. Blaming Putin for Trump will let the voters off the hook.
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United States24578 Posts
On December 26 2018 00:57 Automedon wrote: Imagine the stock market with proper tax rates. I have no issue with your overall post (at least the info you put prior to the big edit) but can you expand on what you mean by this? Are you referring to the fact that rich people typically pay taxes for capital gains, at a lower rate than the top bracket of income tax, or are you referring to something else?
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I mean that the stock market does better on the short term with less taxes. Trump had to raise taxes (or lower spending). But instead he lowered them. Someone is going to have to raise the taxes Trump should have raised, and then raise them some more for the damage done. Where or what you put them on, that doesn't really matter.
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United States24578 Posts
Oh okay you just mean what happens to the stock market depending on where taxes sit as a whole. I understand.
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Bush didn't really have much of an economic crash under his term. The real fallout from the financial crisis came under obama who didn't get the good economy under well into his second term. It was a sticking point in his second election that the economy wasn't that confident of a real recovery (not that it really resulted into real gains for most people but hay economic boom).
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That's the point. The crash happened on Bush' watch (though Clinton is as much to blame for it), but Obama got the blame because he had to take action. Obama's approval was damaged by Bush' crisis. If you add the same penalty that Obama had to Trump, what is his approval rating?
Now I hate Obama for undermining our institutions (labeling whistle blowers as traitors, assassinating Americans without having to provide evidence, drone strikes on civilian, in general paving the way for Trump, labeling GOPcare as Obamacare, not getting a supreme court justice nominated), but I do have to point out that his approval was during en economic downturn. Now we are in an upturn. People have jobs. People have money. But still they are angry at Trump.
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Ah, your that PBU.Cba to go back to find your name but I know we already explained to you how Obama had 0 way to get someone nominated to the SC once the Republicans decided to deny it.
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United States41989 Posts
On December 26 2018 02:05 Sermokala wrote: Bush didn't really have much of an economic crash under his term. The real fallout from the financial crisis came under obama who didn't get the good economy under well into his second term. It was a sticking point in his second election that the economy wasn't that confident of a real recovery (not that it really resulted into real gains for most people but hay economic boom). Do you not remember the dot com crash?
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A second kid has died in US custody at the border. Possible he couldn't have been saved, but still it sucks. Merry Christmas from Trump's America I guess.
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On December 26 2018 05:01 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On December 26 2018 02:05 Sermokala wrote: Bush didn't really have much of an economic crash under his term. The real fallout from the financial crisis came under obama who didn't get the good economy under well into his second term. It was a sticking point in his second election that the economy wasn't that confident of a real recovery (not that it really resulted into real gains for most people but hay economic boom). Do you not remember the dot com crash? Man I could have sworn that was a Clinton era thing. Either way I thought he was referencing the financial crisis my bad. To be fair that was 18 or so years ago which means you'd have to be in your thirties or so to "remember the do com crash".
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You have to be roughly 25+
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On December 26 2018 12:31 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: You have to be roughly 25+ That would make you a 7 year old in first grade or something. You don't get much info on macro scale economics coming in your first 6 or so grades.
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On December 26 2018 14:26 Sermokala wrote:That would make you a 7 year old in first grade or something. You don't get much info on macro scale economics coming in your first 6 or so grades.
Speaking as someone around that age.
I knew exactly nothing of what happened with dot-com bubble as it was happening. I did fully understand what was happening in 2008, as it was happening.
So probably somewhere around 29-33 years old now, and you'd understand both bubbles.
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As one of the resident old people, the dot.com bubble was caused by a lot of stupid investing through venture capital. I doubt anyone could have stopped it because any time someone tries to say a tech company might be a bad investment, everyone from tech says "You are attacking innovation!" This is how we end up with companies based on dumping app based rental scooters in the center of a city and claiming they are disrupting transportation(through littering)
It all blew up in the early 2000s when people realized that those internet companies were very poorly managed and didn’t really make much money. And Bush didn’t do a lot of cushion the implosion either. The amazing part about the dot.com bust is that nothing really changed afterwords and many of the modern tech companies act the exact same way today. I think the big difference today is we all carry around tracking devices and give everyone our information all the time.
But my memory of it is overshadowed by 9/11 and the Iraq War. Who cares about Yahoo Pets going under when we are invading another country?
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I was...14? Somewhere around there. So I remember it happening and reading the effects of it. But not fully understanding it. I remember Enron and some other names getting busted for the shit they did but that's about it.
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Shout out to the government shut down delaying my brother’s sale of his house because HUD can’t process the HUD loan the bank is handing out. Lucky the bank is willing to extend locked in period on the loan, because what else are they going to do? He is super excited to be locked into a purchase and sales agreement that will have to be delayed for an unknown period of time. Let me tell you, it is a super fun period of time to be dealing with the buyers and that bank.
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United States41989 Posts
I was quite amused by the rapid reversal from Trump owning the shutdown to the Dems being the responsible party. Unfortunately everyone but his supporters already blame him and for his supporters Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.
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The best part about the shut down is that the first short term spending bill could have passed the House, but Paul Ryan didn't want to put it to a vote and force the president to veto it. I'm pretty sure congress could pass that same spending bill on January 3, 2019 if they wanted, though it would need to go through the senate for a second time.
Also, Trump has apparently been asking Mitch McConnell to change the rules in the Senate to remove the filibuster. Because Trump hates having to deal with the democrats.
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