Even when they are expected and you could even say guaranteed some outcomes will shock you nonetheless, but thats why the competetion in the ASL is so feirce.

Dominance does not last, now we march forward on the road to a new ASL champion. But first we find out who the other 4 competitiors are to make it to the bracket stage.

Recaps by Simplistik

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The Iron Wall has crumbled.
And so the Winner's Curse has finally caught up with Soulkey. After dominating the tournament for an astonishing two years, the greatest Zerg of the ASL era has been rudely dumped out of 'his' tournament. Without winning even a single game.

There were definitely signs of lacking motivation: lacklustre online results in, e.g., Proleague and KCM, relative inactivity, and perhaps even a lack of fire during the group selection ceremony. I wonder if timing was a factor here. We had an unusually short gap between tournaments, maybe not enough to rest and recover. Being in full-on competitive mode isn't easy to sustain, and, let's be honest, Soulkey doesn't have anything to prove anymore and the prize money is mostly insignificant.

Even if he never comes back, Soulkey's performance over the previous 8 tournaments has been phenomenal. From ASL12 to ASL19, Soulkey never missed the bracket stage, and whoever ended up beating him really had to work for it, including several eventual champions. I suspect it will be some time before we see another performance like this.

I wouldn't bother to go watch the games if you haven't seen them yet. The first match, against Barracks, had a lot of recommendations, but that was probably the shock factor more than anything. For some inexplicable reason, Soulkey never scouted what tech Barracks went for and got completely blindsided by valkyries, and then he had his front door kicked in shortly after. I thought it was quite smart of Barracks to take a somewhat outdated build from earlier seasons that worked against Soulkey before. Against Effort, the (still) reigning champion could have spotted a somewhat hidden hatchery, but didn't notice the then edge of visible creep. That can happen, but it really baffled me that it took Soulkey until almost the end of the game to start looking for the obviously missing hatchery.




The Rest of Group A
In other news from Group A, Barracks qualified in first place with a very solid performance. He brought some interesting siege rush builds against, ehm, Rush. The damage from that ultimately gave him the advantage in the deciding game.



Rush looked a little out of place to me. Yes, he came out strong with a tricky hidden rax against Effort, but after that it was a very ordinary performance where first Barracks and then Effort made him look like a tier below.

Effort on the other hand is looking scary. Not only did he swat Soulkey aside, he actually finished the group with the best record, going 4-1 and getting revenge over Rush in the process. The first game of the Final Match in particular was an Effort-masterclass, where he really showed us how to dictate the pace of the game in ZvT. This game reminded me of Effort very calmly pulling apart Light on 76 a few seasons ago. Again, Effort takes a third base on high-ground with lurkers. Scouting with burrowed lings and excellent positioning slows down the tanks way too much. (Many missed shots up the hill also helped...) And then guardians hatch and Rush gets slowly but surely pushed into a corner. With flawless defensive play Effort never suffers any significant damage and jogs away with the game. I expect he'll be difficult to beat, although his drubbing at the hands of Mini in ASL16 does leave some doubt.

Best takes us on a wild rollercoaster.
Best's crazy escape room shenanigans in Group B were surely the highlight of the season so far. Losing to the supposedly weaker player he picked is just about the only fair comparison with Soulkey this season. Where Soulkey lacked vigour, Best played his heart out, doing absolutely everything he possibly could to scrape through by the narrowest margin. If it wasn't already a meme that Best plays better when he's behind, it would definitely be one now. Or maybe the meme now gets upgraded to a simple truism.

The group started off in the worst possible way for our returning finalist, as BTS tricks him into prepping for Mutas and then suddenly shows up with a bunch of hydras. Best holds with a DT and the game goes fairly long, but the early damage puts Zerg far enough ahead to close it out with some judicious counter attacks.

And then Best runs into Queen in the Losers Match. He proceeds to lose the first game due to falling behind in the opening, again, when the double stargate opening barely gets any value. So with his back against the wall Best pulls out one of his completely normal opening.



What, WHAT?! Yes, that's right, this is an in-enemy-base-proxy-gateway-DT. ... And it actually causes enough damage and chaos that Best can win with a solid midgame push.

In the next game, still facing elimination, Best pulls out his favourite citadel build, but the attack gets bogged down in Queen's excellent sim city. At 11 minutes, Best is 30 supply [i]down, with no corsairs, clinging on by making cannons in his main. Queen decides to play it safe by expanding. Best responds by turning into a gorilla. He muscles up as much as he possibly can on two bases and goes for a Hail Mary attack before the Zerg fourth base has really payed for itself. Protoss is still just down in supply, but Queen's units are spread out, so he loses small groups to a superior army several times in a row. There are also a lot of scourge who can only watch (with their very poor eyesight). The storms are OK, but the dragoons are slowly being whittled down. Best is only moments from following Soulkey back to the qualifiers.



And then a band of zealots races across the map and tips the scales ever so slightly. Lurker aspect is ready, but there are just enough dragoons left over to kill the eggs. And with further rounds of manlots streaming in, the den goes down. Two injured lurkers just manage to burrow. There is no observer. And then two templars arrive and seal Queen's fate. The former champion gets eliminated by a desperate Best comeback two seasons in a row. I like to think that Reach and Jangbi were watching this game somewhere with massive smiles on their faces. After the game, Best's head keeps tilting sideways and his face can't decide whether to sigh with relief or break into a grin, as the rational part and the zealot part of his mind are struggling to come to an agreement.

But the job isn't done, as BTS is waiting in the final. And, because Best really loves a punishing struggle, he drops the first game on Dominator to a delayed hydra bust. But you know what Best likes even better than fighting with his tournament life on the line? Cannon rushing. BTS takes a leaf out of the Soulkey playbook, may he rest in peace, and places his second hatchery at the third base location. There is no space behind the minerals for placing cannons, but Best goes for it anyway. We saw Snow do this last season and he ended up losing badly. But BTS doesn't pull enough drones and takes huge damage without clearing out the cannons. Best comfortably holds the predictable ling counter and we go to the decider. This group had the maximum number of games possible, taking almost four hours! But, by God, it was worth it.

The Game of the Week
Group B comes down to the final game. BTS seizes the initiative with an Effort-esque early game move. Slowlings carefully skirt around the scouting probe, surprise Best and take down the natural cannon. Five lings survive and get into the main. Ordinarily, this is close to a death sentence for Protoss. There isn't even a pylon in the main yet, so Best has to hold with pure micro. I don't know if this is a planned move, but he also warps in a 'tactical' dragoon, who immediately shoots down the overlord and then helps to clear out the lings. Still, the inevitable hydra follow-up gets the forge before the upgrade finishes, and forces more cannons. Best gets locked into his base on 0-0 upgrades, down in supply. Another wave of hydras brings more pressure, including a few probe kills. BTS has the freedom to start his fourth base in a free main, but there's no way Best can take an expansion. But he does it anyway...



Best sneaks out a probe at just about the only moment he can, as BTS maintains vision around the Protoss base for most of the game. A probe transfer is impossible of course, so it will take some time for the base to start bringing in resources. Meanwhile Best has to survive the mutalisk switch. But, apparently, past the early game BTS becomes more predictable, so a dark archon *retarius* is ready with a net.



I was really impressed by how calmly Best pulled away the probes. It must have been tempting to storm immediately, but he really can't afford to lose probes here. Although maybe the templar wasn't quite in reach anyway. BTS double down on mutas, but the second wave gets pushed away by storms. These are good moves by Best, but he's still twenty supply down. And the mutas keep coming. A dark archon helps out with securing Best's 'third' base. So the mutas are free to hit the Protoss main, right?



Wrong. The DA's twin brother is ready throw the book at the trespassers. These are amazing tactical moves, and a new nexus is warping in. But the big picture is that Zerg is on a booming four base economy, with a fifth on the way and a very large standing army. So in reality, Best is still on the ropes, and without the hidden expo he would already be on his way home.

Finally, with a four base economy up, Best can start to macro and once he gets up to 180 supply, maybe he has a chance again. Zerg is still on 2-0 upgrades, with no hive on the way, but at least BTS is finally transitioning to lurkers, after 17 minutes. And with his huge economy he can set up a massive lurker field. Best now has a lot of templars, but BTS shows some class with good spacing and observer snipes. Although perhaps he's a bit too carefree with his hydras.

Having just found his way back into the game, Best finally loses his sneaky expansion, which means he's now fighting a five-base-Zerg with only a two-base-economy. He has to break the lurker contain and do damage, or expand, without losing too much of his army. And so the dragoons slowly push South, backed up by a seemingly never-ending barrage of storms. The Protoss force manages to secure access to three o'clock and Best gets another lifeline.

BTS tries again and again to make a dent in one of the Protoss bases, or contain the army, but the trades are getting worse, as the upgrade disadvantage has grown. Protoss is now on 3-1-2 and has the more powerful standing army for the first time in the game. And storms, and storms, and storms.



At twenty one minutes, Best goes on the offensive for the very first time. Once the lurker pikes are gone, the dragoons can charge straight the lightly armoured hydras and tear through the fifth base. Both players realise that the game has been decided. Best smiles. BTS turns into a question mark. What a great series of games from Best. I haven't shouted this much while watching Brood War in some time.

In Other Other News
The utter madness of the Best games rather overshadowed the performance of the first place qualifier. Bisu sailed through this group serenely, 3-1, on the back of his rock solid PvZ. First beating Queen decisively and then showing BTS what real class in this match-up looks like. He dropped one game to a disguised hydra bust, but overall he's played better this tournament than in quite some time. His control looks crisp, his macro is solid and his multi-tasking is still great. It remains to be seen whether Bisu can bring some creativity to a longer series. Being really good at playing standard is great, but in a best of seven that is not usually enough. Let's hope he gets some good practice in.

Also spare a thought for Queen. He's playing OK again, but somehow he really struggles to close things out sometimes. And what about BTS? He got a lot of stick for his choice of builds, but to be honest, I thought it was smart. The fact that he was only one game away from going through in first place, and in a great position to close it out in the final game, is pretty impressive. His macro looked OK, and I expect he'll be back. If nothing else he makes for an excellent villain...

The ASL20 Round of 16 keeps heating up, and Group C offers a fascinating mix of legends and near-champions. Snow, Sharp, Jaedong, and Mini all bring very different stories from the last three seasons, and their recent history against one another adds extra spice to this group.

Snow has been the picture of consistency. Across ASL 17, 18, and 19, he has reached the semifinals every time. His run in ASL 17 included a sweep of Bisu in a Protoss mirror before bowing out to Soulkey in a tense semifinal. In ASL 18 he once again powered through the bracket, dispatching Mini in group play and rolling over Terran BarrackS before Soulkey knocked him out with a perfect 4–0. ASL 19 told a similar story: SnOw topped his group with wins over Rush and Mini, beat Protoss Rain in the quarterfinals, and then lost another razor-thin semifinal to Soulkey. Against Protoss rivals SnOw has been dominant, defeating Mini twice in group stages and Rain in the playoffs, and his lone meeting with Sharp in ASL 17 also went his way. The one obstacle has been Zerg, where Soulkey has stopped him in three straight semifinals.

Sharp has experienced both highs and lows. In ASL 17 he advanced out of his group and knocked out Best in the quarterfinals before losing to hero in the semifinals. That was followed by the best run of his career in ASL 18, where he stormed through the bracket, beating hero in the quarterfinals and Rain in the semifinals to reach the finals. There, Sharp fell to Soulkey 4–1, but the silver medal marked his peak. The momentum did not carry over into ASL 19. Despite being seeded, Sharp was eliminated in the Round of 16 after losses to Speed and Best. His only direct clash with another Group C player was his 2–1 loss to SnOw in ASL 17 group play. The record shows a Terran with strong tools against Protoss and Zerg when in form, but inconsistency has kept him from sustaining that level across multiple seasons.

Jaedong has taken a more gradual road back to form. In ASL 17, he was knocked out in the Round of 24 after losses to Shuttle and TY. ASL 18 saw a slight improvement as he made the Round of 16, though losses to Bisu and hero kept him from advancing further. Everything changed in ASL 19. Jaedong advanced from his groups and advanced to the quarterfinals where he met Light and was eliminated 4–1. That round of 8 finish showed his trademark aggression and revitalized his fan base.

Mini rounds out the group with flashes of brilliance tempered by tough exits. In ASL 17 he reached the quarterfinals and nearly toppled Soulkey, pushing the eventual champion to a 3–2 series before being eliminated. ASL 18 was much less kind. Mini drew into a group with Rain and SnOw and was knocked out after back-to-back PvP losses, first to Rain and then to SnOw. ASL 19 was more of the same: another Round of 16 elimination, once again at the hands of SnOw in their group. His repeated struggles against Protoss rivals have defined his last two seasons. When he does get a shot against Zerg, as he did against Soulkey in ASL 17, he has shown that he can compete at the highest level. But until Mini finds a way to turn his PvP around, his ceiling in the ASL will remain capped.

Group C celebrates hard knowing Soulkey is out of the tournament, but now they must regain focus as they face each other. How many times have fans felt and even cheered that Jaedong was finally as good as his old self, pointing to online results hoping that they mean anything. Meanwhile, SnOw, after a decade of being the best Protoss, still remains unable to prove his worth. Countless Terran fans preach that Sharp is really a champion tier player, but at first chance, he failed to live up to opportunity. And finally, Mini, the most crafty of all players in this group, still remains as hungry as ever to win despite being the only one here to have won everything. With a wealth of experience and history among these players to look at, the prediction becomes clear.

Snow and Mini Advance To The Ro8! (Supplying us with an abundance of PvP as we enter the season of Fall).

Two fan favorite Zergs find themselves in the same group, picked by the Terran hope, Light, with a potential Terran prodigy added in to the mix. Expect some chaos to come out of this heavy hitting group, as we round out the last of the Ro16!


Light
Light’s picked himself a pretty solid group, with a first pick Speed to set himself up with a straight forward TvT. Sadly, he had Rush get swapped out at the last second, making his run out of the group ever so slightly harder. Luckily, without a Protoss in the group, the TvZ specialist should feel pretty comfortable with the other two opponents.

The best Terran in the tournament has been rock solid, doing quite well in proleagues, although he isn’t as high as he once was on the ELOboard, falling to 7th overall and even now the 5th best Terran. But we don’t always look at online results to determine our offline gameplay, and Light’s been to several brackets over the years where I can’t anticipate him not making it this time around either. Also, he hopefully has that drive and push to make a deep run, with Soulkey getting knocked out earlier in this Round of 16.


Speed
Speed hasn’t shown his full potential, and it seems like this is another tournament where we may not see the starboy break out of his shell quite yet. After a crushing loss to Bisu, he managed to make his way back out by beating back to back Terrans, but it can’t be said that Ty and JyJ are the most threatening of players. Now compare this to Light who will be Speed’s first opponent and he’s going to be in for a rough group. Add to the mix that Speed isn’t well known for his TvZ play yet, and this may actually have been the worst group to be drawn in for the rising Terran star.


Larva
While there’s another returning Zerg in this group that overshadow’s him, Larva has put together some solid games to advance out of his group with a clean 2-0 over Stork and Sharp. But Larva maybe hasn’t been tested quite as much as he should be since he’s returned, not partaking in the major proleagues yet. Especially with Light and soma, Larva’s route out of this group may involve hoping he can sneak a ZvZ over soma and hoping Speed takes out Light.


Soma
Much like Larva, soma’s return has been a great success. A clinical 2-0 dismantling of sSak and Mini saw soma breeze through his Ro24 group like had has not even missed a beat, and soma’s continued his demolition of the StarCraft scene, getting all the way to third on the ELOboard. To some extent, soma at his peak almost feels like a combination of EffOrt and Soulkey: decisive, clinical play coupled with immaculate understanding of the game and each game state.

In this group, I really don’t think anyone is actually favored against soma. Even in a ZvZ, soma’s still going to be favored, and honestly he’s in such great form that I have him favored over Light.

Soma and Light Advance To The Ro8!

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Writers: Simplistik, FlashFTW, BisuDagger
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR