US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5337

On November 02 2025 22:29 micronesia wrote:
It will be hard to measure how much economic damage the long shutdown did because there are so many other ongoing factors influencing the economy... but it can't be good at all.

The shutdown could also affect economic productivity. “Each week, a shutdown subtracts about 0.1% from annualized GDP growth via reduced government activity. There could be a sentiment channel as well if the duration of the shutdown enters uncharted territory,” Feroli said.

On November 02 2025 22:23 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
With this government shut down dragging on so long it's going to be interesting seeing its impact on GDP. Trump sold himself to voters on his ability to create great economic conditions for Americans. Welp, that has not happened yet.

Bad negotiation tactic on Ford's part.

It is a classic example of winning a theoretical debate with your negotiating partner and that theory win results in no deal being signed.
So far, Mark Carney is a better diplomat than Doug Ford.

Doug Ford's province has been falling apart since 2009 and he has done nothing to stem that tide. Ontario needs a genius level leader ... and Doug Ford ain't it.

We can give Doug Ford the "Semanticist Of the Year Award". Personally, I want a leader who wins the "Economic Developer of the Year Award".

I wish C&C was at peak popularity. We'd get some quality memes. The AI art promptists could remove that bird's nest on top of Trump's head so he is as bald as Kane and screaming "Peace Through Power".

On November 02 2025 23:03 micronesia wrote:
A thumb rule from an economist at J.P. Morgan is probably better than a thumb rule I could come up with, but I think it's a bit overstating the usefulness of such a guess to say, "It is approximately 0.1% GDP per week of government shutdown." These things are not always so straight-line linear and also interact with many other parts of the economy. Various things can cascade, snowball, etc. What the thumb rule does show is that even without those other effects, the GDP is definitely expected to steadily decrease, which is probably fair.

On November 03 2025 02:55 micronesia wrote:
Hawaii trip had to be rescheduled to next year.

I'm all-in. If the GOP refuses to negotiate with the democrats, then they will have no government (slightly different than what you asked but same idea) until disasters start striking beyond what we've seen so far during this shutdown. And they will own it.

Easy for me to say since I'm not one of the first waves of feds (or other affected citizens) to starve as this drags on.

On November 03 2025 02:55 micronesia wrote:
Hawaii trip had to be rescheduled to next year.

I'm all-in. If the GOP refuses to negotiate with the democrats, then they will have no government (slightly different than what you asked but same idea) until disasters start striking beyond what we've seen so far during this shutdown. And they will own it.

Easy for me to say since I'm not one of the first waves of feds (or other affected citizens) to starve as this drags on.

The share of voters who blame Democrats is the highest for the party when compared to other shutdowns or potential shutdowns measured in NBC News polling over the last 30 years.

Democrats are 25 points underwater, with just 28% of voters viewing the party positively, near a record-low positive rating of 27% in March. A majority of voters (53%) say they have a negative view of the Democratic Party.

Republicans have a net-negative rating of 9 points, with 46% viewing the party negatively and 37% viewing it positively.

And according to these results, Democrats’ shutdown standoff has not boosted views of the party within their own ranks.

On November 03 2025 03:12 GreenHorizons wrote:

I'm inclined to agree, but I just don't know about the "they [Republicans I presume] will own it" part.

On one hand they are apparently getting a bit more of the blame than Democrats, but on the other hand, this is the most Democrats have basically ever been blamed.



Not to mention Democrats are basically stuck at their lowest favorability in memory with the shutdown fight not appreciably helping.



www.nbcnews.com

It is starting to seem like the US might just end up without a functional (in even the most rudimentary sense) legislative branch indefinitely.

Is there anyone that believes maybe Democrats should take the "clean CR" and choose another hill to die on? Or does everyone agree that under no circumstances can Democrats be allowed to cave on this?

On November 03 2025 03:32 KwarK wrote:

I think you’re forgetting just how stupid American voters are. Trump is the incumbent, that’s all most of them know. He’ll be blamed for the same reason that Biden was blamed for bird flu.

On November 03 2025 03:49 Razyda wrote:


I would agree with you, but I dont think it will play out that way. What I think will happen, is that ruling preventing Trump from firing federal employees during shutdown will get overturned, and Democrats will immediately end shutdown.

On November 03 2025 04:16 Gorsameth wrote:
Because Trump wasn't firing federal employees before the shutdown right?
"If you don't end this shutdown I will do the thing I was doing before the shutdown and will do after the shutdown anyway"
That's not a threat.

On November 03 2025 07:03 KT_Elwood wrote:
Republicans:
"You will starve, because democrats don't let us take away your healthcare"
Fat cat democrats:
"We can't endorse Zhoran Mamdani, taxing billionaires in the richest city on the planet is just too much"
Holy shit america.

In Congress, July 4, 1776

The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.

He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:

For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:

For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:

For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences:

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.

He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.

He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.

He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.

He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.

He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

On November 03 2025 09:25 micronesia wrote:
What does "come to the table" mean in this context?

I'd think it's been Trump and the GOP who have been unwilling to "come to the table". I think you meant to say "capitulate".