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Trump should be happy... a Mexican hit into a double play to eliminate a Canadian team from winning the championship of "America's Past Time". umm, 3 japanese pitchers did all the heavy lifting for the US based team. uhh, let's forget that part.
On November 02 2025 22:29 micronesia wrote:
It will be hard to measure how much economic damage the long shutdown did because there are so many other ongoing factors influencing the economy... but it can't be good at all.
It is approximately, 0.1% of GDP per week of government shutdown.
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown
The shutdown could also affect economic productivity. “Each week, a shutdown subtracts about 0.1% from annualized GDP growth via reduced government activity. There could be a sentiment channel as well if the duration of the shutdown enters uncharted territory,” Feroli said.
Trump has been leaning on memories of Reagan and associating himself with Reagan for 10+ years. Welp, in 1983 the economy grew by 7.9%. No wonder there was a so called "1983 video game crash" in the USA. Everyone was stacking cash and working OT. 
what has been Trump's best year? 3.3%?
we're going on 5 years of Trump running the USA. I'll stick with the baseball theme and say this: "it gets late early out there".
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United States24729 Posts
A thumb rule from an economist at J.P. Morgan is probably better than a thumb rule I could come up with, but I think it's a bit overstating the usefulness of such a guess to say, "It is approximately 0.1% GDP per week of government shutdown." These things are not always so straight-line linear and also interact with many other parts of the economy. Various things can cascade, snowball, etc. What the thumb rule does show is that even without those other effects, the GDP is definitely expected to steadily decrease, which is probably fair.
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On November 02 2025 22:23 JimmyJRaynor wrote:With this government shut down dragging on so long it's going to be interesting seeing its impact on GDP. Trump sold himself to voters on his ability to create great economic conditions for Americans. Welp, that has not happened yet. Bad negotiation tactic on Ford's part. It is a classic example of winning a theoretical debate with your negotiating partner and that theory win results in no deal being signed. So far, Mark Carney is a better diplomat than Doug Ford. Doug Ford's province has been falling apart since 2009 and he has done nothing to stem that tide. Ontario needs a genius level leader ... and Doug Ford ain't it. We can give Doug Ford the "Semanticist Of the Year Award". Personally, I want a leader who wins the "Economic Developer of the Year Award". Show nested quote +On November 02 2025 19:59 Acrofales wrote:
Trump really making his case for the Nobel Peace Prize. With the aircraft carrier still parked off the coast of Venezuela, we have this!
I wish C&C was at peak popularity. We'd get some quality memes. The AI art promptists could remove that bird's nest on top of Trump's head so he is as bald as Kane and screaming "Peace Through Power".
all not bad points.
only with how willy-nilly those Trump Tariffs on Canada are set, then delayed, then lowered again...
everybody loses, especially in the "real economy", where actual people in the real world do stuff, package, ship and deliver services and goods to other people.
as all of that involves at the very least short to mid-term planning which the Orange Man in the White House - with the attention span of a gold fish - makes impossible with his policies.
on a human level you don't enable the abuser... in politics you publicly play nice and in private you work to divest from the idiocy. as Canada does as well. most of it naturally.
you would not believe how many people are massively pissed even in my little neck of the woods.
but there really is something worse afoot, a terrible shift happening.
passing the BBB gutting people's programs they rely on - like SS Medicare/Medicaid but extend billionaire tax cuts? government shutdown amid SNAP benefits for 40+ million people running dry with affordability one of the most pressing matters and people already on edge... so what's the plan here? people in the richest country in the world en masse going hungry?
health care on its last legs and premiums exploding and just pointing fingers while being in power will not be enough.
then they put the cherry on top the last couple of days:
+ Show Spoiler +
a roaring 20s party amid all this turmoil and anger.
if history is any indication, this decadence will exert a heavy price. simply brain dead and corrupted to the core. no zombie costumes needed, real life ghouls.
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On November 02 2025 23:03 micronesia wrote:
A thumb rule from an economist at J.P. Morgan is probably better than a thumb rule I could come up with, but I think it's a bit overstating the usefulness of such a guess to say, "It is approximately 0.1% GDP per week of government shutdown." These things are not always so straight-line linear and also interact with many other parts of the economy. Various things can cascade, snowball, etc. What the thumb rule does show is that even without those other effects, the GDP is definitely expected to steadily decrease, which is probably fair.
Safe to say they've ruined your Hawaii trip?
If Trump/Republicans just refuse to open the government with anything other than a "clean CR" do you (or anyone else) have a time limit where you'd want Democrats to pick a different hill or is this the one for you?
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United States24729 Posts
Hawaii trip had to be rescheduled to next year.
I'm all-in. If the GOP refuses to negotiate with the democrats, then they will have no government (slightly different than what you asked but same idea) until disasters start striking beyond what we've seen so far during this shutdown. And they will own it.
Easy for me to say since I'm not one of the first waves of feds (or other affected citizens) to starve as this drags on.
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On November 03 2025 02:55 micronesia wrote:
Hawaii trip had to be rescheduled to next year.
I'm all-in. If the GOP refuses to negotiate with the democrats, then they will have no government (slightly different than what you asked but same idea) until disasters start striking beyond what we've seen so far during this shutdown. And they will own it.
Easy for me to say since I'm not one of the first waves of feds (or other affected citizens) to starve as this drags on.
As someone completely unaffected, i would also agree. For the simple reason: If democrats give in now, that means that the orange king always knows that he can get them to do whatever he wants, as long as he makes sure that enough people suffer otherwise. And we know that he constantly wants more and more bad things. The stuff he seemingly can do on his own is bad enough, don't need to add all the stuff he can do when democrats also do what he says.
If he wants something, he has to negotiate.
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On November 03 2025 02:55 micronesia wrote:
Hawaii trip had to be rescheduled to next year.
I'm all-in. If the GOP refuses to negotiate with the democrats, then they will have no government (slightly different than what you asked but same idea) until disasters start striking beyond what we've seen so far during this shutdown. And they will own it.
Easy for me to say since I'm not one of the first waves of feds (or other affected citizens) to starve as this drags on.
I'm inclined to agree, but I just don't know about the "they [Republicans I presume] will own it" part.
On one hand they are apparently getting a bit more of the blame than Democrats, but on the other hand, this is the most Democrats have basically ever been blamed.
The share of voters who blame Democrats is the highest for the party when compared to other shutdowns or potential shutdowns measured in NBC News polling over the last 30 years.
Not to mention Democrats are basically stuck at their lowest favorability in memory with the shutdown fight not appreciably helping.
Democrats are 25 points underwater, with just 28% of voters viewing the party positively, near a record-low positive rating of 27% in March. A majority of voters (53%) say they have a negative view of the Democratic Party.
Republicans have a net-negative rating of 9 points, with 46% viewing the party negatively and 37% viewing it positively.
And according to these results, Democrats’ shutdown standoff has not boosted views of the party within their own ranks.
www.nbcnews.com
It is starting to seem like the US might just end up without a functional (in even the most rudimentary sense) legislative branch indefinitely.
Is there anyone that believes maybe Democrats should take the "clean CR" and choose another hill to die on? Or does everyone agree that under no circumstances can Democrats be allowed to cave on this?
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If not the hill of healthcare for millions Americans, what other hill would they stand on?
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United States43197 Posts
On November 03 2025 03:12 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2025 02:55 micronesia wrote:
Hawaii trip had to be rescheduled to next year.
I'm all-in. If the GOP refuses to negotiate with the democrats, then they will have no government (slightly different than what you asked but same idea) until disasters start striking beyond what we've seen so far during this shutdown. And they will own it.
Easy for me to say since I'm not one of the first waves of feds (or other affected citizens) to starve as this drags on. I'm inclined to agree, but I just don't know about the "they [Republicans I presume] will own it" part. On one hand they are apparently getting a bit more of the blame than Democrats, but on the other hand, this is the most Democrats have basically ever been blamed. Show nested quote +The share of voters who blame Democrats is the highest for the party when compared to other shutdowns or potential shutdowns measured in NBC News polling over the last 30 years.
Not to mention Democrats are basically stuck at their lowest favorability in memory with the shutdown fight not appreciably helping. Show nested quote +Democrats are 25 points underwater, with just 28% of voters viewing the party positively, near a record-low positive rating of 27% in March. A majority of voters (53%) say they have a negative view of the Democratic Party.
Republicans have a net-negative rating of 9 points, with 46% viewing the party negatively and 37% viewing it positively.
And according to these results, Democrats’ shutdown standoff has not boosted views of the party within their own ranks. www.nbcnews.comIt is starting to seem like the US might just end up without a functional (in even the most rudimentary sense) legislative branch indefinitely. Is there anyone that believes maybe Democrats should take the "clean CR" and choose another hill to die on? Or does everyone agree that under no circumstances can Democrats be allowed to cave on this?
I think you’re forgetting just how stupid American voters are. Trump is the incumbent, that’s all most of them know. He’ll be blamed for the same reason that Biden was blamed for bird flu.
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On November 03 2025 03:32 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2025 03:12 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 03 2025 02:55 micronesia wrote:
Hawaii trip had to be rescheduled to next year.
I'm all-in. If the GOP refuses to negotiate with the democrats, then they will have no government (slightly different than what you asked but same idea) until disasters start striking beyond what we've seen so far during this shutdown. And they will own it.
Easy for me to say since I'm not one of the first waves of feds (or other affected citizens) to starve as this drags on. I'm inclined to agree, but I just don't know about the "they [Republicans I presume] will own it" part. On one hand they are apparently getting a bit more of the blame than Democrats, but on the other hand, this is the most Democrats have basically ever been blamed. The share of voters who blame Democrats is the highest for the party when compared to other shutdowns or potential shutdowns measured in NBC News polling over the last 30 years.
Not to mention Democrats are basically stuck at their lowest favorability in memory with the shutdown fight not appreciably helping. Democrats are 25 points underwater, with just 28% of voters viewing the party positively, near a record-low positive rating of 27% in March. A majority of voters (53%) say they have a negative view of the Democratic Party.
Republicans have a net-negative rating of 9 points, with 46% viewing the party negatively and 37% viewing it positively.
And according to these results, Democrats’ shutdown standoff has not boosted views of the party within their own ranks. www.nbcnews.comIt is starting to seem like the US might just end up without a functional (in even the most rudimentary sense) legislative branch indefinitely. Is there anyone that believes maybe Democrats should take the "clean CR" and choose another hill to die on? Or does everyone agree that under no circumstances can Democrats be allowed to cave on this? I think you’re forgetting just how stupid American voters are. Trump is the incumbent, that’s all most of them know. He’ll be blamed for the same reason that Biden was blamed for bird flu.
I would agree with you, but I dont think it will play out that way. What I think will happen, is that ruling preventing Trump from firing federal employees during shutdown will get overturned, and Democrats will immediately end shutdown.
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On November 03 2025 03:49 Razyda wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2025 03:32 KwarK wrote:On November 03 2025 03:12 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 03 2025 02:55 micronesia wrote:
Hawaii trip had to be rescheduled to next year.
I'm all-in. If the GOP refuses to negotiate with the democrats, then they will have no government (slightly different than what you asked but same idea) until disasters start striking beyond what we've seen so far during this shutdown. And they will own it.
Easy for me to say since I'm not one of the first waves of feds (or other affected citizens) to starve as this drags on. I'm inclined to agree, but I just don't know about the "they [Republicans I presume] will own it" part. On one hand they are apparently getting a bit more of the blame than Democrats, but on the other hand, this is the most Democrats have basically ever been blamed. The share of voters who blame Democrats is the highest for the party when compared to other shutdowns or potential shutdowns measured in NBC News polling over the last 30 years.
Not to mention Democrats are basically stuck at their lowest favorability in memory with the shutdown fight not appreciably helping. Democrats are 25 points underwater, with just 28% of voters viewing the party positively, near a record-low positive rating of 27% in March. A majority of voters (53%) say they have a negative view of the Democratic Party.
Republicans have a net-negative rating of 9 points, with 46% viewing the party negatively and 37% viewing it positively.
And according to these results, Democrats’ shutdown standoff has not boosted views of the party within their own ranks. www.nbcnews.comIt is starting to seem like the US might just end up without a functional (in even the most rudimentary sense) legislative branch indefinitely. Is there anyone that believes maybe Democrats should take the "clean CR" and choose another hill to die on? Or does everyone agree that under no circumstances can Democrats be allowed to cave on this? I think you’re forgetting just how stupid American voters are. Trump is the incumbent, that’s all most of them know. He’ll be blamed for the same reason that Biden was blamed for bird flu. I would agree with you, but I dont think it will play out that way. What I think will happen, is that ruling preventing Trump from firing federal employees during shutdown will get overturned, and Democrats will immediately end shutdown. Because Trump wasn't firing federal employees before the shutdown right?
"If you don't end this shutdown I will do the thing I was doing before the shutdown and will do after the shutdown anyway"
That's not a threat.
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EPT
