EPTJWR leading as an independent in a near 3 way tie
Canadian Politics Mega-thread - Page 73
| Forum Index > General Forum |
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
|
CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
JWR leading as an independent in a near 3 way tie | ||
BigFan
TLADT24920 Posts
Well, lib minority. Guess it could've been worse. | ||
|
JimmyJRaynor
Canada16716 Posts
J. Trudeau "Mr. Trump, sir. Please, hold my Tim Horton's large double-double." | ||
Nakajin
Canada8989 Posts
The Green are the only big losers, it's time fro May to take her leave as chief. I assume the Libs will chose the NDP over the Bloc although they are pretty similar all around, they can't really govern with Québec in front of the rest of the country. Trans-mountain/ overall pipeline situation is gonna be super interesting, with both the bloc and the NDP strongly against, we could see some Libs-Conservatives policy alliance. | ||
|
Herpin_Along
15 Posts
On October 22 2019 13:46 Nakajin wrote: Everyone must be pretty happy, libs got the government and has three distinct majority options, conservative did pretty good + have a good part of the popular vote (the most if it keep up) so Sheer should be able to stay the chief, at least for the coming days. The bloc came back from the dead although they didn't do that good in an historical perspective, NDP didn't totally collapses and will probably hold the balance of power. The Green are the only big losers, it's time fro May to take her leave as chief. I assume the Libs will chose the NDP over the Bloc although they are pretty similar all around, they can't really govern with Québec in front of the rest of the country. Trans-mountain/ overall pipeline situation is gonna be super interesting, with both the bloc and the NDP strongly against, we could see some Libs-Conservatives policy alliance. The cynic in me thinks its going to be liberal-bloc, and that's because of the issue of electoral reform. Trudeau broke his electoral reform promise last election for the very reason we see tonight. The bloc also wildly benefits from first past the post systems. The only way they get NDP sign off for a coalition is on the condition of electoral reform. I think the Liberals will ally with the bloc in exchange for concessions to Quebec rather than give the NDP what they want, which will damage future liberal prospects. I think it would be a bad look and doom Trudeau in the next election, but I think its the result he is going to be pushed into taking by his party. I sure hope I am wrong though, and we can get some meaningful electoral reform finally implemented in this country. | ||
|
Nakajin
Canada8989 Posts
On October 22 2019 13:56 Herpin_Along wrote: The cynic in me thinks its going to be liberal-bloc, and that's because of the issue of electoral reform. Trudeau broke his electoral reform promise last election for the very reason we see tonight. The bloc also wildly benefits from first past the post systems. The only way they get NDP sign off for a coalition is on the condition of electoral reform. I think the Liberals will ally with the bloc in exchange for concessions to Quebec rather than give the NDP what they want, which will damage future liberal prospects. I think it would be a bad look and doom Trudeau in the next election, but I think its the result he is going to be pushed into taking by his party. I sure hope I am wrong though, and we can get some meaningful electoral reform finally implemented in this country. I don't think there's even gonna be an hint of a coalition, the bloc will never be in a coalition (the chief repeated it tonight) and even tho the NDP could be an option I don't see any reason for the Trudeau to go sign a coalition when there's no other coalition that could form in front of him. It's just gonna be like the Harper years, where the government pick and chose his allies depending of the issues. | ||
|
Ben...
Canada3485 Posts
This is what I was talking about earlier today when I said voter intention was heavily skewed because of the prairie provinces and that seat projections were much more accurate to look at. The Conservatives getting 50% to 85%(!!!) of votes in ridings in those provinces only ended up netting them a handful of seats. edit: haha CBC. "They're all talking at once so we'll show Trudeau since he won. We'll switch back to Scheer if he announces anything or Singh if there's any sign of him stopping". | ||
|
CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
edit: ok 1 minute into Scheer and Trudeau starts his speech, great start to a minority government. Scheer got owned lol | ||
Falling
Canada11355 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/XJSdJnX.jpg) Nearly one million more than Quebec, yet two less seats between BC and Alberta. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/pOvOwx5.jpg) Or nearly double the Atlantic provinces, and yet only two seats more. | ||
|
Herpin_Along
15 Posts
On October 22 2019 14:13 Falling wrote: I've also seen some numbers suggesting that electorally, Alberta is under-represented in seats compared to Quebec or the Atlantic provinces, despite the House supposedly being rep by pop. I would be pretty skeptical of that claim. Maybe under-represented by a single seat due to rounding issues, but my impression of the bodies that assign ridings is that they are fairly impartial. Just don't tell me your source for that is off of facebook... Edit: you were actually totally right, my bad. It's roughly pretty good but Alberta is slightly under-represented for some weird-ass reasons.. | ||
|
Ben...
Canada3485 Posts
On October 22 2019 14:13 Falling wrote: I've also seen some numbers suggesting that electorally, Alberta is under-represented in seats compared to Quebec or the Atlantic provinces, despite the House supposedly being rep by pop. It's roughly in the correct proportion. Quebec has 78 seats for ~8.4 million people. Alberta has 34 seats for 4.3 million. Both provinces had their seat totals increased in both this and the last election to reflect population changes. I'm not sure what's up with the Atlantic Canada numbers. PEI has 4 seats despite having a tiny population. Apparently the numbers in the Maritime provinces are partly set based on clauses in the constitution. Outside of PEI though, the numbers are roughly in line. Alberta's electoral quotient (AKA the thing they use to decide the number of seats) is roughly the same as Ontario and BC, and all 3 provinces have proportionally the same number of seats. There's a breakdown of it here: en.wikipedia.org | ||
|
Korlin
Canada142 Posts
Quite a wide range actually. Biggest outliers are from Atlantic Canada and the territories. | ||
|
Ben...
Canada3485 Posts
If the Conservatives let him continue as leader, they're doomed to be the opposition from here on out. He's horrible. | ||
|
BigFan
TLADT24920 Posts
On October 22 2019 14:29 Korlin wrote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_of_Canadian_federal_ridings Quite a wide range actually. Biggest outliers are from Atlantic Canada and the territories. From looking at the pops vs seat count, it seems pretty fair give or take a seat or two tbh so I don't see why there is a claim of unfairness. On October 22 2019 14:38 Ben... wrote: Scheer made no indication he will resign from leadership. If the Conservatives let him continue as leader, they're doomed to be the opposition from here on out. He's horrible. indeed. If the cons want to succeed next time, they have to drop him imo. | ||
|
ZigguratOfUr
Iraq16955 Posts
| ||
|
ElMeanYo
United States1032 Posts
On October 22 2019 14:38 Ben... wrote: Scheer made no indication he will resign from leadership. If the Conservatives let him continue as leader, they're doomed to be the opposition from here on out. He's horrible. And why is he bad? Because he takes conservative positions? | ||
|
PhoenixVoid
Canada32740 Posts
Then again I do remember the Republicans having their post-mortem moment after 2012 that encouraged a turn towards the centre, and look where we are now. | ||
|
goiflin
Canada1218 Posts
On October 22 2019 15:20 ElMeanYo wrote: And why is he bad? Because he takes conservative positions? Lack of charisma, complete inability take a stance, and he's absolutely and obviously dishonest. There's no redeeming qualities to him. If the cons had a good leader, there's a good chance we'd at the very least see a minority conservative government. This was their election to lose (by running Scheer). | ||
|
Ben...
Canada3485 Posts
On October 22 2019 15:20 ElMeanYo wrote: And why is he bad? Because he takes conservative positions? He just lost an election that should have been next to impossible to lose. He is unpopular even among his own party (as we've talked about in this thread), and his fringe views on several key topics (he is anti-abortion in a country in which approximately 4/5 of the population is pro-choice for example) has left him repeatedly open to attack. He also has a serious image problem after being found to have been not necessarily honest about his past. Scheer has polled worse in terms of approval from voters than Trudeau, a guy who has been incredibly divisive in terms of public opinion since being elected 4 years ago, was involved in multiple high profile scandals during his first 4 years as PM, and had brownface/blackface photos of him come out showing him being at the minimum incredibly culturally insensitive, if not kinda racist literally weeks before the election, which went against what against what he had projected himself as. That's how unpopular and bad of a leader Scheer is. Scheer's disapproval in polling the last week or so has been hovering around 55-60%, worse than Trudeau. I live in the province Scheer has been elected in since he first ran for office first in 2005. Even here people don't really like him and would rather the Conservatives have picked pretty much anyone else as leader. | ||
|
JimmyJRaynor
Canada16716 Posts
On October 22 2019 15:43 Ben... wrote: He just lost an election that should have been next to impossible to lose. Nah, not with the economy going this good. Furthermore, whatever party is in power in Ontario usually doesn't win federally. Almost always, Quebec will only vote for one of their own. Add this all up and Trudeau had a reasonable shot of getting re-elected. Trudeau also did a nice job playing Matador with the climate crazies. A better conservative politician stood a better chance of winning, however, this loss doesn't mean Scheer is extremely terrible. I agree with you that Scheer should resign as leader, however, he is not horrible. I want a super smart lawyer: someone who is both book smart and street smart. The chance of that happening is low.. but that is the type of person that is needed. On October 22 2019 15:43 Ben... wrote: Scheer has polled worse in terms of approval from voters than Trudeau, a guy who has been incredibly divisive in terms of public opinion since being elected 4 years ago, was involved in multiple high profile scandals during his first 4 years as PM, and had brownface/blackface photos of him come out showing him being at the minimum incredibly culturally insensitive, if not kinda racist literally weeks before the election, which went against what against what he had projected himself as Patrick Brown got elected as Mayor after really cheeseball accusations. Doug Ford got elected as Premier and was part of the Rob Ford 3-ring circus running Toronto. No one cares about these cheeseball incidents. Masai Ujiri was right there giving Trudeau a glowing recommendation. The guys Trudeau posed with many years ago were totally cool with it... so much so ... they never brought it up because they thought it was no big deal. When interviewed by CBC they said they didn't mind it. Judith Sgro stated the black people in her riding of Humber River Black Creek viewed Trudeau's antics as a compliment because they felt he wanted to be black. International media who live no where near Humber River then jumped all over Sgro for her comments. I think Sgro was accurately relaying the feedback from her constituents. She captured 61% of the vote in her riding and won by 16,000 votes. So I don't think the blackface thing was that big of deal. It was a big deal to international media and Fox News so they could scream out "see.. left wingers are terrible racists as well". The people around Trudeau when he did it thought it was no big deal which is why an obscure source "came forward" rather than someone who attended the parties. NOne of the people at the parties where he did this stuff gave a crap. Immediately after these incidents were revealed Trudeau lost about 1% in the polls. Once you take into account the margin for error in the polls this conveys zero information ... good or bad. I'm proud of Judith Sgro for having the courage to put forth her constituents' unorthodox take on the incident. If that is how they feel ... that is how they feel. Her constituents spoke very loud and clear. She was re-elected. Good for her. It sure gave Fox News something to talk about for a few days though. In conclusion, the incidents in Trudeau's distant past had zero impact on the election. Judith Sgro "offended" international media by relaying her constituents unorthodox take on the incidents. No one in her riding gave crap either way and she crushed the competition. | ||
| ||
