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On April 15 2017 20:40 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2017 20:19 bardtown wrote:
Isn't Melenchon in favour of some sort of socialist union with Venezuela and Cuba? I don't know that he wins vs Le Pen. Crazy things like this would push Fillon supporters to Le Pen as a last resort. He wants some of the French territories near South America to join the ALBA, yes. This triggered a stupid controversy; meanwhile the same people have nothing to say when France trades with Qatar, Saudi Arabia or Iran. Go figure? It's just always the same propaganda to paint Mélenchon as a red devil and a would-be tyrant. Fillon and Macron announced stuff such as their will to bypass the Parliament to bulldoze workers' rights, but they didn't get accusations of authoritarianism. The double standards from TINA journalists/columnists are always hilarious. Yes, some of Fillon's supporters would vote for Le Pen in the second round, but so what? Polls claim the reports from Fillon's electorate would be from 25 to 35% on Le Pen (figures are roughly the same in Macron vs Le Pen scenarii). That's weak, 6-7 points or 3 millions of votes at best. Most of them would probably abstain. The complete addition of Fillon and Le Pen doesn't equate 50% so it doesn't matter. And outside of that Le Pen has no reserve.
And Melenchon does? If he is anything like Corbyn I would be concerned. Leftists should just stick to the safe option in Macron, I think.
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On April 15 2017 20:47 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2017 20:40 TheDwf wrote:On April 15 2017 20:19 bardtown wrote:
Isn't Melenchon in favour of some sort of socialist union with Venezuela and Cuba? I don't know that he wins vs Le Pen. Crazy things like this would push Fillon supporters to Le Pen as a last resort. He wants some of the French territories near South America to join the ALBA, yes. This triggered a stupid controversy; meanwhile the same people have nothing to say when France trades with Qatar, Saudi Arabia or Iran. Go figure? It's just always the same propaganda to paint Mélenchon as a red devil and a would-be tyrant. Fillon and Macron announced stuff such as their will to bypass the Parliament to bulldoze workers' rights, but they didn't get accusations of authoritarianism. The double standards from TINA journalists/columnists are always hilarious. Yes, some of Fillon's supporters would vote for Le Pen in the second round, but so what? Polls claim the reports from Fillon's electorate would be from 25 to 35% on Le Pen (figures are roughly the same in Macron vs Le Pen scenarii). That's weak, 6-7 points or 3 millions of votes at best. Most of them would probably abstain. The complete addition of Fillon and Le Pen doesn't equate 50% so it doesn't matter. And outside of that Le Pen has no reserve. And Melenchon does? If he is anything like Corbyn I would be concerned. Leftists should just stick to the safe option in Macron, I think.
Yes, in a Mélenchon vs Le Pen second round, he would get 95%+ voices from the left and most likely a short majority of moderate voices; meanwhile Le Pen would get almost nothing in this political space.
Macron does not belong to the left. He's like a Tony Blair, which is tantamount to centrism in France. Economic liberalism is strongly rejected in the 30% of voters who are the most on the left, and this is what he embodies. In the first round, Macron can attract center-left voters (~15% of the electorate) but not “hard” left (~25%). In France too the Blair line eventually got beaten hard. Even harder actually.
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This was the logic for electing Corbyn. The centrists have been rejected, we need to move to the left. And they lost the majority of their voter base in the process. Winning the left is entirely meaningless, because they will vote for whoever isn't Le Pen anyway. And while I feel like Fillon voters might abstain in a Le Pen vs Macron final round, you might find that the centre right are more wary of socialism than they are of nationalism if it comes to Le Pen vs Melenchon.
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Well, since i am ignorant in the subject, how can you draw a parallel between France and UK elections ? Is there something remotely close to the SNP when it came down to suck votes from the left ? Does it really matter when the final election will be between two candidates rather than a number of parties ?
The logic is exactly the same that was done Hillary vs Trump, which since the last round of the French presidential race is between 2 candidates, would be way more apt than the UKs general elections. But to be honest, different countries, different voters. I would be more interested to know how many Macron voters would vote for Mélenchon and vice versa rather than attempting to shoehorn a comparison to other countries. Are Macron vs Mélenchon voters completely polarized where they can't see voting for each other's candidate ? Whoever has the numbers advantadge there is probably the most apt to face Le Penn.
About the propaganda against Mélenchon i can relate, when Podemos was second in the polls at the second general elections here, the parties and the media doubled down on the Chavists, Leninists, etc narratives quite hard, i prefer to read/listen to articles or commentaries from media or experts which support different parties than i do and you could smell the panic, but at that point it doesn't change that many minds.
But i would say that the Brexit was the real dealbreaker which make the party flop at the end, since it was only a few days before the elections and it was extensively portrayed as "what happens when populism wins" and how bad it would impact the UK, or how most voters already regretted their decissions.
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On April 15 2017 21:39 bardtown wrote:
This was the logic for electing Corbyn. The centrists have been rejected, we need to move to the left. And they lost the majority of their voter base in the process. Winning the left is entirely meaningless, because they will vote for whoever isn't Le Pen anyway. And while I feel like Fillon voters might abstain in a Le Pen vs Macron final round, you might find that the centre right are more wary of socialism than they are of nationalism if it comes to Le Pen vs Melenchon.
1) Our political systems are different. You essentially have a two-party system and FPTP, so naturally going to the left is a dead-end for the social-democracy. You also have to consider the terrible damage that people like Blair do to their own party. It can take up to 15-20 years for them to recover; see the SPD after Schröeder. Not only they destroy trust in the party, but they also kill part of its social base, pushing them into abstention or far-right votes. In a single mandate Hollande blew a 45 years lead over the left. He completely ravaged the PS. The PASOK disappeared in Greece. When you're a left-wing party you better don't f*ck with your electorate or horrible things happen. Things like Brexit are also very hard to manage and embarrassing for the left, everyone is divided about what to do, there's no clear path, so it doesn't help the Labour. Corbyn is also fought by the right wing of his party, right? And I guess mainstream medias demonize him. Based on all this, I'm not surprised that the Labour is not in good shape.
2) Mélenchon's goal, and part of the success of the campaign, is precisely that he did not try to “win the left”. He actually dropped any reference to the left. Of course most of his voters come from the left, but his primary target is people who no longer vote.
3) Le Pen isn't even guaranteed anymore to be in the second round.
4) Centre-right voters would not (only) see Mélenchon vs Le Pen as “socialism vs nationalism” but as Republic vs proto-fascism. Caricaturing a bit but you see the point. When you're equally unhappy with the content of the policies, you simply go for the one who scares you less, or the one who seems the most able/the less incapable to run the State.
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On April 15 2017 21:10 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2017 20:47 bardtown wrote:On April 15 2017 20:40 TheDwf wrote:On April 15 2017 20:19 bardtown wrote:
Isn't Melenchon in favour of some sort of socialist union with Venezuela and Cuba? I don't know that he wins vs Le Pen. Crazy things like this would push Fillon supporters to Le Pen as a last resort. He wants some of the French territories near South America to join the ALBA, yes. This triggered a stupid controversy; meanwhile the same people have nothing to say when France trades with Qatar, Saudi Arabia or Iran. Go figure? It's just always the same propaganda to paint Mélenchon as a red devil and a would-be tyrant. Fillon and Macron announced stuff such as their will to bypass the Parliament to bulldoze workers' rights, but they didn't get accusations of authoritarianism. The double standards from TINA journalists/columnists are always hilarious. Yes, some of Fillon's supporters would vote for Le Pen in the second round, but so what? Polls claim the reports from Fillon's electorate would be from 25 to 35% on Le Pen (figures are roughly the same in Macron vs Le Pen scenarii). That's weak, 6-7 points or 3 millions of votes at best. Most of them would probably abstain. The complete addition of Fillon and Le Pen doesn't equate 50% so it doesn't matter. And outside of that Le Pen has no reserve. And Melenchon does? If he is anything like Corbyn I would be concerned. Leftists should just stick to the safe option in Macron, I think. Yes, in a Mélenchon vs Le Pen second round, he would get 95%+ voices from the left and most likely a short majority of moderate voices; meanwhile Le Pen would get almost nothing in this political space. Macron does not belong to the left. He's like a Tony Blair, which is tantamount to centrism in France. Economic liberalism is strongly rejected in the 30% of voters who are the most on the left, and this is what he embodies. In the first round, Macron can attract center-left voters (~15% of the electorate) but not “hard” left (~25%). In France too the Blair line eventually got beaten hard. Even harder actually.
Mélenchon would win vs Le Pen, but would automatically have his authority questioned by anyone at the right of Hollande, though. I'm afraid the whole right would turn his early presidency into a complete nightmare. And since he's both a very good orator and someone with slightly authoritarian tendencies, I'm kinda worried of how a big social conflict would play out with Mélenchon not in the role of the protester - for once.
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Sure the media assault can be quite nasty but they don't make it especially hard for them, right? Why would you even bring this Venezuela stuff up a few weeks before an election? And that aside, if Mélenchon is already branding himself as a voice of the new left, why would you court Venezuela or Cuba, countries that are rightfully being used as examples of failed 20th century socialism?
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On April 15 2017 22:13 Godwrath wrote:
Well, since i am ignorant in the subject, how can you draw a parallel between France and UK elections ? Is there something remotely close to the SNP when it came down to suck votes from the left ? Does it really matter when the final election will be between two candidates rather than a number of parties ?
The logic is exactly the same that was done Hillary vs Trump, which since the last round of the French presidential race is between 2 candidates, would be way more apt than the UKs general elections. But to be honest, different countries, different voters. I would be more interested to know how many Macron voters would vote for Mélenchon and vice versa rather than attempting to shoehorn a comparison to other countries. Are Macron vs Mélenchon voters completely polarized where they can't see voting for each other's candidate ? Whoever has the numbers advantadge there is probably the most apt to face Le Penn.
From some Ipsos poll, 40% of Mélenchon's unsure voters give Macron as their second choice, while 30% of Macron's unsure voters give Mélenchon as their second choice. The porosity is surprisingly high, so given that their ideas are completely opposite, this probably means that a certain number of voters are simply ready to vote for whoever will allow them to avoid the dreaded Fillon vs Le Pen scenario. Almost none of the voters, whoever they vote for, gives Fillon or Le Pen as their second choice, which seems to indicate that they have little reserve.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
Why did Hamon drop so dramatically?
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So the Turkish referendum is tomorrow on making Erdogan a potential autocrat, a vote with a potentially larger impact on the future of Europe than the French elections that are now apparently on everyone's mind.
A piece I just read in Czech claims that campaign is heavily skewed towards "yes", with the official media giving 20 times more airtime to the "yes" camp, all "no" posters being torn down within hours outside of the most liberal parts of Istanbul and up to 10 thousand potential "no" campaigneers being currently in jail. Don't have an English source, but the paper claiming is one of the few respectable ones in Czech. Still they can't predict the outcome, seems really close.
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^the same picture is painted in one of the major Danish newspapers by a columnist. The essence of the column was a description of a country deeply divided likely to end up as an autocracy. Nothing to do but hold our breathes.
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On April 16 2017 03:58 opisska wrote:
So the Turkish referendum is tomorrow on making Erdogan a potential autocrat, a vote with a potentially larger impact on the future of Europe than the French elections that are now apparently on everyone's mind.
A piece I just read in Czech claims that campaign is heavily skewed towards "yes", with the official media giving 20 times more airtime to the "yes" camp, all "no" posters being torn down within hours outside of the most liberal parts of Istanbul and up to 10 thousand potential "no" campaigneers being currently in jail. Don't have an English source, but the paper claiming is one of the few respectable ones in Czech. Still they can't predict the outcome, seems really close.
Woah there, the French elections will likely decide the short-term future of the EU (assuming an elected Le Pen or Mélenchon wouldn't come back on their plans for the EU, of course). That's a pretty big impact.
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On April 16 2017 03:58 opisska wrote:
So the Turkish referendum is tomorrow on making Erdogan a potential autocrat, a vote with a potentially larger impact on the future of Europe than the French elections that are now apparently on everyone's mind.
A piece I just read in Czech claims that campaign is heavily skewed towards "yes", with the official media giving 20 times more airtime to the "yes" camp, all "no" posters being torn down within hours outside of the most liberal parts of Istanbul and up to 10 thousand potential "no" campaigneers being currently in jail. Don't have an English source, but the paper claiming is one of the few respectable ones in Czech. Still they can't predict the outcome, seems really close.
There is a reason Ergodan has been jailing journalists for a while now. As any good wanne be dictator knows, you need to control the media to control the people. And to have an outside enemy to focus the people on (conveniently delivered by the 'coup' attempt)
A yes vote is pretty likely, and so is election fraud to accomplish it.
The real question I have is what will happen after a No vote. He still has a lot of power and his dream of sultan-hood is not going to go away.
Edit:
As for the impact on the EU. I'm not so sure it will be that big. Turkey is not coming in either way.
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On April 16 2017 04:05 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2017 03:58 opisska wrote:
So the Turkish referendum is tomorrow on making Erdogan a potential autocrat, a vote with a potentially larger impact on the future of Europe than the French elections that are now apparently on everyone's mind.
A piece I just read in Czech claims that campaign is heavily skewed towards "yes", with the official media giving 20 times more airtime to the "yes" camp, all "no" posters being torn down within hours outside of the most liberal parts of Istanbul and up to 10 thousand potential "no" campaigneers being currently in jail. Don't have an English source, but the paper claiming is one of the few respectable ones in Czech. Still they can't predict the outcome, seems really close.
Woah there, the French elections will likely decide the short-term future of the EU (assuming an elected Le Pen or Mélenchon wouldn't come back on their plans for the EU, of course). That's a pretty big impact.
What is Melenchon's position on the EU?
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On April 16 2017 02:15 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2017 21:10 TheDwf wrote:On April 15 2017 20:47 bardtown wrote:On April 15 2017 20:40 TheDwf wrote:On April 15 2017 20:19 bardtown wrote:
Isn't Melenchon in favour of some sort of socialist union with Venezuela and Cuba? I don't know that he wins vs Le Pen. Crazy things like this would push Fillon supporters to Le Pen as a last resort. He wants some of the French territories near South America to join the ALBA, yes. This triggered a stupid controversy; meanwhile the same people have nothing to say when France trades with Qatar, Saudi Arabia or Iran. Go figure? It's just always the same propaganda to paint Mélenchon as a red devil and a would-be tyrant. Fillon and Macron announced stuff such as their will to bypass the Parliament to bulldoze workers' rights, but they didn't get accusations of authoritarianism. The double standards from TINA journalists/columnists are always hilarious. Yes, some of Fillon's supporters would vote for Le Pen in the second round, but so what? Polls claim the reports from Fillon's electorate would be from 25 to 35% on Le Pen (figures are roughly the same in Macron vs Le Pen scenarii). That's weak, 6-7 points or 3 millions of votes at best. Most of them would probably abstain. The complete addition of Fillon and Le Pen doesn't equate 50% so it doesn't matter. And outside of that Le Pen has no reserve. And Melenchon does? If he is anything like Corbyn I would be concerned. Leftists should just stick to the safe option in Macron, I think. Yes, in a Mélenchon vs Le Pen second round, he would get 95%+ voices from the left and most likely a short majority of moderate voices; meanwhile Le Pen would get almost nothing in this political space. Macron does not belong to the left. He's like a Tony Blair, which is tantamount to centrism in France. Economic liberalism is strongly rejected in the 30% of voters who are the most on the left, and this is what he embodies. In the first round, Macron can attract center-left voters (~15% of the electorate) but not “hard” left (~25%). In France too the Blair line eventually got beaten hard. Even harder actually. Mélenchon would win vs Le Pen, but would automatically have his authority questioned by anyone at the right of Hollande, though. I'm afraid the whole right would turn his early presidency into a complete nightmare. And since he's both a very good orator and someone with slightly authoritarian tendencies, I'm kinda worried of how a big social conflict would play out with Mélenchon not in the role of the protester - for once.
By anyone at the right of the center of the PS, actually. The right grants no legitimacy to pretty much anyone at their left, even Bayrou at the center-right is a “socialist” to them lol. But since half of their electorate is old and rich(er than average), they're no fuel for a social conflict; while the left would have tons of young bodies ready to riot vs Fillon/Le Pen. The FN has zero power of mobilization. Usually the right goes down in the street about catholic-related stuff, like defending private schools or campaigning against gay marriage. Labour mobilization just isn't their stuff in France, we would need a severe crisis to see the right in the streets.
Mélenchon's problem would be first and foremost the backlash of the capital, le mur de l'argent [the wall of money]. The ruling class has no intention to concede any power or wealth, so as usual when a left-wing government appears they would organize the flight of capital and sabotage. Financial markets would start viciously attacking France's debt. Billionaires also own the press and most columnists are TINA adepts, so there would probably be intense propaganda about how we're going to end like Cuba, Venezuela or maybe even the USSR or North Korea. The ruling class cannot let a socialist government succeed in an old capitalist nation like France, otherwise there would be contagion. I hope Mélenchon is ready for all that, unlike Mitterrand in 1981.
On April 16 2017 02:17 Nyxisto wrote:
Sure the media assault can be quite nasty but they don't make it especially hard for them, right? Why would you even bring this Venezuela stuff up a few weeks before an election? And that aside, if Mélenchon is already branding himself as a voice of the new left, why would you court Venezuela or Cuba, countries that are rightfully being used as examples of failed 20th century socialism?
Journalists are the ones who brought forward this Venezuela stuff, it was just a random proposal lost among the 357 in his program (which is known for months) and they were suddenly like, “OMG!! You want to leave NATO and Europe and join an organization with Russia and Iran as observers!!” [Which apparently is not even true, but it allows them to associate Mélenchon with authoritarian/dictatorial regimes...]
The goal is not to “court” those countries, the spirit seems to be simple cooperation with neighbours (we have Guyane and the Antilles there). It's a completely meaningless detail, but some journalists just love to make buzz out of nothing. The journalist who asked one of Mélenchon's lieutenants about the ALBA is fairly braindead and dishonest. Overall many journalists consider the radical left with a mixture of condescendence and hostility, so they try to trigger random controversies like this. There's a long story of conflictuality between Mélenchon and journalists.
On April 16 2017 03:14 LegalLord wrote:
Why did Hamon drop so dramatically?
Long story short, he was outclassed by Mélenchon, who appeared better in debates (that's when the curves intersected; after that, strength goes to the strength, the momentum takes it all). The right wing of his own party also sabotaged Hamon's campaign, with medias reporting daily the defections of PS apparatchiks towards Macron, so it made him look like weak, isolated and unable to unite his own camp. Hamon also talked too much to his base instead of expanding. He wasted weeks making a deal with the Greens who weigh nothing (1-2%) to put pressure on Mélenchon (“I am the center of the left, everyone must join me!”). He's also less coherent and solid than Mélenchon (who understood far better the political moment in which France was), while they globally share the same political space i.e. the left-wing opposition to Hollande. Increasingly good polls for Mélenchon did the rest.
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On April 16 2017 04:44 TheDwf wrote:
Journalists are the ones who brought forward this Venezuela stuff, it was just a random proposal lost among the 357 in his program (which is known for months) and they were suddenly like, “OMG!! You want to leave NATO and Europe and join an organization with Russia and Iran as observers!!” [Which apparently is not even true, but it allows them to associate Mélenchon with authoritarian/dictatorial regimes...]
The goal is not to “court” those countries, the spirit seems to be simple cooperation with neighbours (we have Guyane and the Antilles there). It's a completely meaningless detail, but some journalists just love to make buzz out of nothing. The journalist who asked one of Mélenchon's lieutenants about the ALBA is fairly braindead and dishonest. Overall many journalists consider the radical left with a mixture of condescendence and hostility, so they try to trigger random controversies like this. There's a long story of conflictuality between Mélenchon and journalists.
It might be a minor thing in and of itself but it is indicative of his political direction. has repeatedly stated his affinity for both Chavez and Castro. (on his official channel, too) and he clearly toys with 'anti-Western' or 'anti-American' sentiment. His comments of having to 'renegotiate cold war borders' during one of the debates was an example of this too. So journalists aren't just plucking this out of thin air, in generally he seems apologetic of what are essentially dysfunctional authoritarian regimes. I think we can expect all candidates in Europe to distance themselves from this.
I mean just look at his attitude towards Fidel. The revolution is amazing, the evil imperialists are responsible for everything bad, etc.. for how many decades have we heard this stuff now? If he wants to be the 'new left' he should start with a critical examination of what went wrong in the past.
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Norway28667 Posts
Is Melenchon's appreciation of castro/chavez deeper or more pronounced than Sanders' appreciation of Castro/sandinistas? Like, isn't it just this oldschool socialist semi-defense of socialist latin americans as a counterweight to american imperialism? Honest question, no statement. 
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On April 16 2017 04:12 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2017 04:05 OtherWorld wrote:On April 16 2017 03:58 opisska wrote:
So the Turkish referendum is tomorrow on making Erdogan a potential autocrat, a vote with a potentially larger impact on the future of Europe than the French elections that are now apparently on everyone's mind.
A piece I just read in Czech claims that campaign is heavily skewed towards "yes", with the official media giving 20 times more airtime to the "yes" camp, all "no" posters being torn down within hours outside of the most liberal parts of Istanbul and up to 10 thousand potential "no" campaigneers being currently in jail. Don't have an English source, but the paper claiming is one of the few respectable ones in Czech. Still they can't predict the outcome, seems really close.
Woah there, the French elections will likely decide the short-term future of the EU (assuming an elected Le Pen or Mélenchon wouldn't come back on their plans for the EU, of course). That's a pretty big impact. What is Melenchon's position on the EU?
Basically that the EU is a undemocratic tool used by the financial elite to exploit people. Thus his proposal is to renegotiate European treaties to allow for more anti-austerity and less free trade ; if the renegotiation fails, Frexit through referendum.
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Okay. So in other words if it goes to Melenchon vs Le Pen then short the euro.
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I wouldn't be sure that a referendum in France actually goes through, and both don't want to leave without one. You could as well get a Syriza situation with either one in office.
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EPT
