EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 778
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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Velr
Switzerland10837 Posts
 .My issue is that teachers went from university to teaching directly and after that want to create policy for workers, while having no clue about "normal" workplace enviroments. The left used to be the workers party and still wants to be it, while many of its members have 0 clue about said enviroment. This just can't and does not work. And as said before, not having many teachers on the left side of our parlament really isn't an issue . I have tons of respect for teachers. | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://s1.lemde.fr/image2x/2017/04/14/534x0/5111189_7_555e_intentions-de-vote-au-premier-tour-selon_11f4f02a3a13a0f6cebc2ea9b169c084.png) Top number inside the bars is the % of people who can still change their vote + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/777661SondageBVA1404.jpg) Some other polls (3 published today + the 2 daily rolling ones...) have slightly higher spreads but overall they don't exceed 3-4 points. - Le Pen has the most solid base but completely failed to expand. Her score eroded over time, she was up to 27-28 a few weeks ago. Seems that after all, there is just no appetite for the far-right in France. - Macron has the most fragile base and the highest score of “by default vote”. His team is apparently a bit febrile and even mainstream medias started reporting about doubts. I bet he's going to discover soon why no centre ever emerged under the Vth Republic. - Mélenchon's dynamic seems confirmed and he has chances to be in the second round. In my opinion he still has reserves because at a minimum, he could win 2-3 points from Hamon. Even a Hamon voter who hates Mélenchon would ask himself questions about the opportunity to send Mélenchon in the second round. - Fillon resists/claws back. His electorate was naturally impervious to new revelations and he now refuses to ask questions about his scandal lol. In this kind of situation just getting 1 point back from Macron could be enough. In the second round polls all have Macron > everyone, Everyone > Le Pen and Mélenchon > Fillon. According to the same polls, indecisiveness still remains around 30-35% so literally every scenario is possible. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
No surprise; he looks like one pitiful excuse for a candidate, but I could've sworn he was higher than 7%. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 15 2017 04:21 LegalLord wrote: Wasn't Hamon at around 12% at some point in the near past? No surprise; he looks like one pitiful excuse for a candidate, but I could've sworn he was higher than 7%. 2 weeks ago, yes: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9YuP9EXcAM7Rcp.jpg) | ||
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Shield
Bulgaria4824 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Thoughts? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22065 Posts
On April 15 2017 06:17 Shield wrote: Has anyone watched this video about Russia? It's about Medvedev and there is English translation. + Show Spoiler + Thoughts? Regardless of location or topic, its always rude to drop a 50min video with basically no explanation and go 'thoughts?' | ||
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Shield
Bulgaria4824 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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a_flayer
Netherlands2826 Posts
Fillon vs Le Pen would be awful, I agree. That could actually end up in a Le Pen win, which would be funny-sad like when Trump won. I'd like to see a genuine leftist like Melenchon go up against Le Pen, though, rather than these middle of the road type guys such as Macron. That'd be fun! The Russian corruption video regarding our friend Dimon seems like it's just your typical political bribery by rich people. Basically standard American politics on steroids ("they've built this system for years and now its unfair"). Navalny going "how can you pay for health care if they are so corrupt" and then pleading for votes in the way he did makes it sound very populist in a "vote for me I alone can solve this" kind of way. Except, of course, he is on the 'liberal western' side, so he's clearly the good guy, right? Right...? The corruption that he highlights is pretty bad, just as political corruption anywhere is bad, and it's good that it is more exposed now. I'm not sure if that guy is the answer as he presents himself in that video though. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On April 15 2017 08:48 Nyxisto wrote: that Fillon's campaign isn't dying concerns me. I really don't wanna see Fillon vs Le Pen Be thankful it's not Clinton vs Trump. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
From a distance, he seems to give off the vibe of being bland - in the sense of being far too consensus-based and unlikely to bring change in a troubled time. The sort of guy who talks a wild beautiful speech about making things better but whose track record (and EU endorsement) suggests a tendency towards the status quo. But what does it look like among actual voting people? | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7953 Posts
Le Pen is worse than Trump and Fillon is worse than Clinton. Not many reasons to rejoice, except that the worst option has less chances to win. | ||
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Biff The Understudy
France7953 Posts
On April 15 2017 02:10 Velr wrote: Hospitals/healthcate providers here are private or run like private anyway .My issue is that teachers went from university to teaching directly and after that want to create policy for workers, while having no clue about "normal" workplace enviroments. The left used to be the workers party and still wants to be it, while many of its members have 0 clue about said enviroment. This just can't and does not work. And as said before, not having many teachers on the left side of our parlament really isn't an issue . I have tons of respect for teachers.I still fail to see why working in the public sector is not a "real" job. How does working in a marketing department or in the trading department of a bank more real than being a teacher is beyond me. | ||
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Shield
Bulgaria4824 Posts
On April 15 2017 18:09 Biff The Understudy wrote: I still fail to see why working in the public sector is not a "real" job. How does working in a marketing department or in the trading department of a bank more real than being a teacher is beyond me. I'll speak for my country because I don't know how it is in France. Because public sector (state funded jobs) often attract lazy people who do nothing about bureaucracy. They get less money than in private sector, so less competitive people are likely to end up working there. Also, they're funded by tax payer, hence they're not the "real" job that generates economy. Notice that I don't mention teachers or doctors. They're jobs that don't have to generate money. Their job is to help society, so it's okay for them to be in public sector. However, compare that to 240 MPs (instead of having just 120, for example), compare that to bureaucracy from government institutions, etc. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 15 2017 08:48 Nyxisto wrote: that Fillon's campaign isn't dying concerns me. I really don't wanna see Fillon vs Le Pen On April 15 2017 12:15 a_flayer wrote: I don't understand why people would be willing to put up with Fillon. He's barely lost anything since February. Isn't Macron practically the same thing in terms of policy, except less nepotism and slightly less overt corruption? Are people in France as entrenched in their political parties as in the US? I suppose the main difference is that one is a career politician while the other is not, maybe that's why people don't abandon Fillon? Fillon represents the old French catholic right. He only gets 10-15% in the 18-65 years, but gets 35-40% of the votes in the 65+ category, and up to 45% in 75+ years old. He's the candidate of the post-WWII gaullist generation, and sadly those people are numerous and they vote much more than average. His electorate believes the random conspirationnist crap that he spew to defend himself aka “the left/media/system plotted against us to steal our victory”. They do use the verb steal; the French right arrogantly believes that this election is theirs, and globally they think of themselves as the owner of the Vth Republic (they were in power 66% of the time since 1958, and they pretty much consider any win of the left/center-left as “housebreaking” ...). He didn't lose anything since February because he had already lost 30-40% of his potential electorate by then. Many of them went into abstention, and the risk is that they come back again in the last few days, even reluctantly... Macron has the same liberal politics but in a milder way, yes. But he's Hollande's heir, so polarization, etc. As of now, in approval ratings Fillon is even more rejected than Le Pen! I have no idea how he can even think that he would be able to govern in those conditions. It's folly. Yet he could still win because of the retirement residences... On April 15 2017 12:55 LegalLord wrote: Regarding Macron having some troubles right now, what exactly do people dislike about him? From a distance, he seems to give off the vibe of being bland - in the sense of being far too consensus-based and unlikely to bring change in a troubled time. The sort of guy who talks a wild beautiful speech about making things better but whose track record (and EU endorsement) suggests a tendency towards the status quo. But what does it look like among actual voting people? Vacuous catch-all approach (hard to associate him with a few iconic, strong measures) + Hollande's heir + complete opportunistic guy who tells everything and his contrary based on where and to whom he talks + this disagreeable impression that the “high society” wanted to force-feed us with him; pretty much the worst possible combo in a populist zeitgeist. Also whatever people claim, the left-right divide is still pretty strong. As I wrote a few times, many people tried to build a large force around the centre and it never worked. Mélenchon's rise also nullified the ultimate blackmail of the useful vote vs Le Pen (i. e. there's now another credible option to avoid a Fillon/Le Pen scenario, unlike a few weeks ago). | ||
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bardtown
England2313 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On April 15 2017 20:19 bardtown wrote: Isn't Melenchon in favour of some sort of socialist union with Venezuela and Cuba? I don't know that he wins vs Le Pen. Crazy things like this would push Fillon supporters to Le Pen as a last resort. He wants some of the French territories near South America to join the ALBA, yes. This triggered a stupid controversy; meanwhile the same people have nothing to say when France trades with Qatar, Saudi Arabia or Iran. Go figure? It's just always the same propaganda to paint Mélenchon as a red devil and a would-be tyrant. Fillon and Macron announced stuff such as their will to bypass the Parliament to bulldoze workers' rights, but they didn't get accusations of authoritarianism. The double standards from TINA journalists/columnists are always hilarious. Yes, some of Fillon's supporters would vote for Le Pen in the second round, but so what? Polls claim the reports from Fillon's electorate would be from 25 to 35% on Le Pen (figures are roughly the same in Macron vs Le Pen scenarii). That's weak, 6-7 points or 3 millions of votes at best. Most of them would probably abstain. The complete addition of Fillon and Le Pen doesn't equate 50% so it doesn't matter. And outside of that Le Pen has no reserve. | ||
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