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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On April 07 2017 23:12 Nixer wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2017 22:55 LegalLord wrote:On April 07 2017 22:50 LightSpectra wrote:On April 07 2017 22:41 TheDwf wrote:
Macron: Assad is the enemy of the Syrian people and he'll have to face international justice, but fighting ISIS is priority; also calls for a coordinated, international action in retaliation against Assad I'm really sad that this man is probably going to become president. In the dying gasp of the EU, its last leaders are going to desperately hold onto what led to the problem in the first place. This is nothing out of the ordinary. I wasn't aware the EU was suddenly dying, interesting point of view.
Not suddenly, but surely you can see the writing on the wall. Even the EU's most consistent supporters are saying its current crises are existential and it's also pretty clear that no one has any plans as to how to stop what's coming. And it's no surprise that in the face of that, the usual suspects toe the status quo against popular opposition - including the "Assad must go" line.
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You went from EU is dying, to Godzilla is coming, to something something Assad. It must be hard to connect disparate narratives.
Anyhow since you want to know global reactions, but can't be bothered to look for it yourself here's a nice link:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-39521332
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If I look at the US atm. I see a giant moron leading an absolutely incapable congress/senate.
If I look at Russia i see a Country that is hurting badly under oil prices, international sanctions and ridiculous corruption.
But somehow its the EU that is "dieing" because a member, that was never even really on the same page as most EU countries, has voted to leave by a thin margin and hasn't even left yet.
Just legallordthings...
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When I look at the US I see a mess, when I look at Russia I see a mess, when I look at the EU I see a mess. When I look at Switzerland I see a success  .
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
Only one of those messes is slated not to exist within the span of the next twenty years though.
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Yes I too see the Russian federation falling apart in the next twenty years due to economic hardships
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On April 07 2017 23:31 LegalLord wrote:
Only one of those messes is slated not to exist within the span of the next twenty years though.
Russia?
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On April 07 2017 22:55 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2017 22:50 LightSpectra wrote:On April 07 2017 22:41 TheDwf wrote:
Macron: Assad is the enemy of the Syrian people and he'll have to face international justice, but fighting ISIS is priority; also calls for a coordinated, international action in retaliation against Assad I'm really sad that this man is probably going to become president. In the dying gasp of the EU, its last leaders are going to desperately hold onto what led to the problem in the first place. This is nothing out of the ordinary.
So LL, which country do you next expect to leave the EU? Because the only places where the disapproval ratings are at alarming levels are the Netherlands and France, and there's not going to be an exit-referendum in either place anytime soon. (Maybe Greece, but since they're a net burden on the EU, that's not really going to hurt them that much IMO.)
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On April 07 2017 23:46 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2017 22:55 LegalLord wrote:On April 07 2017 22:50 LightSpectra wrote:On April 07 2017 22:41 TheDwf wrote:
Macron: Assad is the enemy of the Syrian people and he'll have to face international justice, but fighting ISIS is priority; also calls for a coordinated, international action in retaliation against Assad I'm really sad that this man is probably going to become president. In the dying gasp of the EU, its last leaders are going to desperately hold onto what led to the problem in the first place. This is nothing out of the ordinary. So LL, which country do you next expect to leave the EU? Because the only places where the disapproval ratings are at alarming levels are the Netherlands and France, and there's not going to be an exit-referendum in either place anytime soon. (Maybe Greece, but since they're a net burden on the EU, that's not really going to hurt them that much IMO.)
Greece leaving has very serious consequences. But Italy is far and away the highest risk (assuming Le Pen doesn't win, which she likely won't). By the way, the so-called 'populism' in the UK is absolutely nothing compared to populist movements in any of these countries.
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On April 07 2017 23:46 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2017 22:55 LegalLord wrote:On April 07 2017 22:50 LightSpectra wrote:On April 07 2017 22:41 TheDwf wrote:
Macron: Assad is the enemy of the Syrian people and he'll have to face international justice, but fighting ISIS is priority; also calls for a coordinated, international action in retaliation against Assad I'm really sad that this man is probably going to become president. In the dying gasp of the EU, its last leaders are going to desperately hold onto what led to the problem in the first place. This is nothing out of the ordinary. So LL, which country do you next expect to leave the EU? Because the only places where the disapproval ratings are at alarming levels are the Netherlands and France, and there's not going to be an exit-referendum in either place anytime soon. (Maybe Greece, but since they're a net burden on the EU, that's not really going to hurt them that much IMO.)
If you want to go full meme you can say Poland and Hungary are going to be kicked out soon and back this up with an anonymously sourced Times article.
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On April 07 2017 23:50 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2017 23:46 LightSpectra wrote:On April 07 2017 22:55 LegalLord wrote:On April 07 2017 22:50 LightSpectra wrote:On April 07 2017 22:41 TheDwf wrote:
Macron: Assad is the enemy of the Syrian people and he'll have to face international justice, but fighting ISIS is priority; also calls for a coordinated, international action in retaliation against Assad I'm really sad that this man is probably going to become president. In the dying gasp of the EU, its last leaders are going to desperately hold onto what led to the problem in the first place. This is nothing out of the ordinary. So LL, which country do you next expect to leave the EU? Because the only places where the disapproval ratings are at alarming levels are the Netherlands and France, and there's not going to be an exit-referendum in either place anytime soon. (Maybe Greece, but since they're a net burden on the EU, that's not really going to hurt them that much IMO.) Greece leaving has very serious consequences. But Italy is far and away the highest risk (assuming Le Pen doesn't win, which she likely won't). By the way, the so-called 'populism' in the UK is absolutely nothing compared to populist movements in any of these countries.
I'm not saying Grexit wouldn't have 'serious consequences', only that it wouldn't destroy the EU. The most damaging thing to the EU is if its net-contributor members leave, and that's probably not going to happen for anybody besides the UK anytime soon.
To my knowledge there's no realistic chance of an Itexit rederendum anytime soon, but I could be wrong.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On April 07 2017 23:46 LightSpectra wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2017 22:55 LegalLord wrote:On April 07 2017 22:50 LightSpectra wrote:On April 07 2017 22:41 TheDwf wrote:
Macron: Assad is the enemy of the Syrian people and he'll have to face international justice, but fighting ISIS is priority; also calls for a coordinated, international action in retaliation against Assad I'm really sad that this man is probably going to become president. In the dying gasp of the EU, its last leaders are going to desperately hold onto what led to the problem in the first place. This is nothing out of the ordinary. So LL, which country do you next expect to leave the EU? Because the only places where the disapproval ratings are at alarming levels are the Netherlands and France, and there's not going to be an exit-referendum in either place anytime soon. (Maybe Greece, but since they're a net burden on the EU, that's not really going to hurt them that much IMO.)
No government is going to be stupid enough to allow a referendum on EU membership in the near future, lest they risk the people making the wrong decision, so we're probably not going to see any more countries leave outright, for at least another decade. The four nations I'd watch most closely though, are France, Italy, Greece, and Poland. The first two, the EU leadership has said that if either one votes to leave the union won't survive.
France, we've looked at it in enough depth to see what's going on there given that they have the elections.
Italy has intermittent economic troubles with parties that favor leaving the Euro.
Greece is Greece.
Poland is kind of a placeholder for all CEE EU nationlings. They all have their own problems and aren't really much like the West Europeans. Poland of course can be bribed into not calling for an exit, given how much free money they get, but the anti-EU sentiment still manifests in the form of stupid stuff on a consistent basis. Though the CEEs are least likely to actually exit they will contribute a lot to undermining unity.
I don't think that, at this point, the end of the EU is going to look like a bunch of Brexits in a short trickle. Eventually there will be a larger fracture that will impel the union towards separation. And it wouldn't be a moment too soon.
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Considering that EU is a modern version of the US (ofc with some inner issues for a while) it would be miserably stupid to think that EU gonna disappear anytime soon. EU does not looks like empire, on the other hand Russia does and we know what happens to empires eventually.
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The only person in France who would hold an exit referendum is Le Pen, and she's not winning the next election. Meaning the earliest it's on the table is by 2022. Literally all that Macron has to do is get unemployment under control within 5 years and there's no chance a Frexit will happen.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On April 08 2017 00:01 LightSpectra wrote:
The only person in France who would hold an exit referendum is Le Pen, and she's not winning the next election. Meaning the earliest it's on the table is by 2022. Literally all that Macron has to do is get unemployment under control within 5 years and there's no chance a Frexit will happen.
I mean, these crises do have a tendency to develop during times of economic uncertainty, but that won't erase the fundamental problems of trying to put together a union of nations that don't really belong under a single government.
Besides, I don't think the fundamental causes of economic uncertainty within the EU, or the global economy for that matter, are going to show any signs of dissipating. Quite the opposite; it's quite clearly going to get worse before it even has a chance to get better.
On April 07 2017 23:40 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
Yes I too see the Russian federation falling apart in the next twenty years due to economic hardships
It's a good thing that unlike a random union of countries, this magical thing called a NATION STATE doesn't fall apart that easily .
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Support for the EU is almost directly correlated to economic success. It's the most unpopular in the countries that are net-contributors, as I already said. And within those countries, the support for exiting is highest in places where unemployment is >7%. (Then there's Greece which is an exceptional case for obvious reasons.)
The people on TL are mostly intellectuals that enjoy discussing the abstract ideals of the EU, but for most people, it's a matter being able to pay the bills. If they can't pay the bills, they want something to change. Solution: Make sure they can pay the bills. Then they have no reasons to lash out against "the establishment."
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The EU cannot fail. It may fail by name and many of its projects and its governing networks may be destroyed and it's pillars be revoked, but you would have to be economically suicidal to actually try and dissolve all the ties and try to diverge when it comes to regulations. The European idea has already won, there cannot be nationalist success. It really comes down to whether one wants a - hopefully more - democratic body to govern all of this, or whether we put the keys to our success into the hands of multinational firms which are vastly more powerful than some of the smaller European states.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
It's true that monetary injection can dull the conflict - and besides, people who aren't happy in poor countries can always move to wealthier countries. And sometimes they hate both the EU and their own government, but their own government is worse. So it's better to just quietly realize their own country has no future and build a life in Germany or Britain or something.
But economics is only one factor. The UK, much less England, is hardly the poorest part of the EU, nor the most economically damaged. Yet besides the London area where finance is strongly benefited by EU membership, the support for leaving was pretty strong. The economics ("we don't like being a net contributor") was a factor but so was national sovereignty. The latter was probably even more important than the former because a lot of Brexiteers were perfectly willing to accept that it would cause them economic harm.
I found this 2013 map on Europe unemployment:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/eWdYtOS.png)
It vaguely corresponds to economic troubles but not as much as you would think. Economics is one factor of many. And there is no specific reason why anti-EU has to be anti-establishment in the more American sense. These are nations, not little statelets that were never really separate.
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You won't be able to get rid of economic crises altogether though. They keep coming back and there will be economic headwinds in the future.
The bigger issue is the rise of nationalism and protectionism ideals and the decrease in popularity of neoliberalism that started happening with the Great Recession, joined together with the recent refugee and terrorism crises. I think those are the main factors affecting the popularity of the EU, rather than economic questions - the worst of the sovereign debt crises has been past - or about any actual specific aspect of the EU. Notice how ignorant of actual EU policy the anti-EU arguments have been.
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On April 08 2017 00:32 LegalLord wrote:
It's true that monetary injection can dull the conflict - and besides, people who aren't happy in poor countries can always move to wealthier countries.
Not in the same manner as if they were in the EU.
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EPT
