Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
On April 08 2017 00:34 warding wrote: You won't be able to get rid of economic crises altogether though. They keep coming back and there will be economic headwinds in the future.
The bigger issue is the rise of nationalism and protectionism ideals and the decrease in popularity of neoliberalism that started happening with the Great Recession, joined together with the recent refugee and terrorism crises. I think those are the main factors affecting the popularity of the EU, rather than economic questions - the worst of the sovereign debt crises has been past - or about any actual specific aspect of the EU. Notice how ignorant of actual EU policy the anti-EU arguments have been.
The actual issue is just how incredibly ignorant of anti-EU arguments the pro-EU people are. You cannot blame it on protectionist ideals. Protectionism is very popular in France. Protectionism is deeply unpopular in the UK. The result is a union which takes a middle ground that is profoundly unpopular in both countries. Nationalism is the inevitable result.
Jump to 10:50 in this talk about polling data:
Does it look like there was a populist uprising against free trade in the UK? Just like the assertion that the vote was founded on racism, it's a lie peddled by the pro-EU groups and accepted unquestioningly by people who want to justify the union.
I wasn't talking solely about Brexit exclusively, I was talking about anti-EU sentiment in general. You acknowledge in your post that there is protectionism in Le Pen's rhetoric... therefore both protectionism and nationalism are key forces against the EU.
Meanwhile, as should've been clear by now, the EU isn't protectionist at all by developed world's standards, and I don't see a reason to believe the UK would be any less protectionist than the EU. The actual result is likely to be that you'll wind up having many more trade barriers than before, but lets not turn this into a debate - it's about predicting the future and I'm more than happy to agree to disagree on this point.
Again, this is an incomprehensible take on the situation if you know anything about British history, the Conservative party or the Brexit campaign. It would be hard to find a more concentrated group of pro-free trade/liberalisation politicians anywhere in Europe. Note the countries in the EU that considered the UK an ally: Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Germany, NL, etc. Free traders.
The point about France/UK on protectionism is that you're trying to provide a one size fits all solution for countries with entirely different perspectives on their direction. It's not an inherent problem with protectionism. It's a problem with denying nations the right to self determination.
On April 08 2017 00:57 bardtown wrote: Again, this is an incomprehensible take on the situation if you know anything about British history, the Conservative party or the Brexit campaign. It would be hard to find a more concentrated group of pro-free trade/liberalisation politicians anywhere in Europe. Note the countries in the EU that considered the UK an ally: Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Germany, NL, etc. Free traders.
The point about France/UK on protectionism is that you're trying to provide a one size fits all solution for countries with entirely different perspectives on their direction.
Hahahahaha, UK and free trade. Bombing countries to establish businesses. Oh did they trade their oil freely.
On April 08 2017 00:57 bardtown wrote: Again, this is an incomprehensible take on the situation if you know anything about British history, the Conservative party or the Brexit campaign. It would be hard to find a more concentrated group of pro-free trade/liberalisation politicians anywhere in Europe. Note the countries in the EU that considered the UK an ally: Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Germany, NL, etc. Free traders.
The point about France/UK on protectionism is that you're trying to provide a one size fits all solution for countries with entirely different perspectives on their direction.
Hahahahaha, UK and free trade. Bombing countries to establish businesses. Oh did they trade their oil freely.
The day an Austrian thinks he has the historical moral high ground...
Also, it got buried under Syria, but this happened.
Russia recognizes west Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated in a surprise announcement on Thursday.
The announcement comes as US President Donald Trump’s administration is agonizing over whether to move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, a move that would constitute recognizing west Jerusalem as the country’s capital. No other country in the world recognizes any part of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
On April 08 2017 00:57 bardtown wrote: Again, this is an incomprehensible take on the situation if you know anything about British history, the Conservative party or the Brexit campaign. It would be hard to find a more concentrated group of pro-free trade/liberalisation politicians anywhere in Europe. Note the countries in the EU that considered the UK an ally: Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Germany, NL, etc. Free traders.
The point about France/UK on protectionism is that you're trying to provide a one size fits all solution for countries with entirely different perspectives on their direction.
Hahahahaha, UK and free trade. Bombing countries to establish businesses. Oh did they trade their oil freely.
The day an Austrian thinks he has the historical moral high ground...
I'm a liberal, I do not take blame for my countries or other people's doings. I know very well that my country's enterprises and politicians are just the same cockroaches when it comes to creeping up Americas ass and sucking on the sweet resources the American imperialism bears. I do however try to avoid products directly benefting in that way and try to find the best parties to vote for to stand up against this modern imperialism. You really cannot put the blame on me for being born into a network of people that consider me a property of a philosohpical construct called Austria.
On April 08 2017 00:57 bardtown wrote: Again, this is an incomprehensible take on the situation if you know anything about British history, the Conservative party or the Brexit campaign. It would be hard to find a more concentrated group of pro-free trade/liberalisation politicians anywhere in Europe. Note the countries in the EU that considered the UK an ally: Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Germany, NL, etc. Free traders.
The point about France/UK on protectionism is that you're trying to provide a one size fits all solution for countries with entirely different perspectives on their direction. It's not an inherent problem with protectionism. It's a problem with denying nations the right to self determination.
The whole point of politics is to come to a compromise. The UK had issues with compromising from the very beginning and always demanded special concessions. Thats why they still have the Pound. Regardless if thats a good thing it shows that the UK never fully trusted the European idea. Thats a far bigger issue than relativly short term economic concerns.
However I don´t think going off alone will help the UKs "right to self determination". They heavily reduced their influence on their primary market.
On April 07 2017 23:57 LegalLord wrote: No government is going to be stupid enough to allow a referendum on EU membership in the near future, lest they risk the people making the wrong decision, so we're probably not going to see any more countries leave outright, for at least another decade. The four nations I'd watch most closely though, are France, Italy, Greece, and Poland. The first two, the EU leadership has said that if either one votes to leave the union won't survive.
France, we've looked at it in enough depth to see what's going on there given that they have the elections. Italy has intermittent economic troubles with parties that favor leaving the Euro. Greece is Greece. Poland is kind of a placeholder for all CEE EU nationlings. They all have their own problems and aren't really much like the West Europeans. Poland of course can be bribed into not calling for an exit, given how much free money they get, but the anti-EU sentiment still manifests in the form of stupid stuff on a consistent basis. Though the CEEs are least likely to actually exit they will contribute a lot to undermining unity.
I don't think that, at this point, the end of the EU is going to look like a bunch of Brexits in a short trickle. Eventually there will be a larger fracture that will impel the union towards separation. And it wouldn't be a moment too soon.
On April 08 2017 00:57 bardtown wrote: Again, this is an incomprehensible take on the situation if you know anything about British history, the Conservative party or the Brexit campaign. It would be hard to find a more concentrated group of pro-free trade/liberalisation politicians anywhere in Europe. Note the countries in the EU that considered the UK an ally: Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Germany, NL, etc. Free traders.
The point about France/UK on protectionism is that you're trying to provide a one size fits all solution for countries with entirely different perspectives on their direction. It's not an inherent problem with protectionism. It's a problem with denying nations the right to self determination.
The whole point of politics is to come to a compromise. The UK had issues with compromising from the very beginning and always demanded special concessions. Thats why they still have the Pound. Regardless if thats a good thing it shows that the UK never fully trusted the European idea. Thats a far bigger issue than relativly short term economic concerns.
However I don´t think going off alone will help the UKs "right to self determination". They heavily reduced their influence on their primary market.
Swiss is not having a bad time but it's true they have to follow most of EU's rules without having a word. In that sense, leaving the EU is at least a partial loss of self determination, which is surely regained elswhere.
Exactly, bringing up swiss independence is just dishonest. In nearly all measurable ways we either allready follow EU rules (or stricter, self imposed) or will have to soon if we don't want to shatter our economy (which is as much about banks as germanies). The UK is much bigger/more powerfull but still way too small to have any kind of real leverage in the long run.
On April 08 2017 02:35 Velr wrote: Exactly, bringing up swiss independence is just dishonest. In nearly all measurable ways we either allready follow EU rules (or stricter, self imposed) or will have to soon if we don't want to shatter our economy (which is as much about banks as germanies). The UK is much bigger/more powerfull but still way too small to have any kind of real leverage in the long run.
This is an important point. Independence to a large degree is just a fashion label. Claiming nominal sovereignty doesn't suspend the laws of physics. If you want to enjoy the same things that you had before you'll have to follow through on actual agreements. Sure you can leave and then go on and enact all the policies independently but if you end up where you started anyway it wasn't more than just a circus.
On April 07 2017 23:57 LegalLord wrote: No government is going to be stupid enough to allow a referendum on EU membership in the near future, lest they risk the people making the wrong decision, so we're probably not going to see any more countries leave outright, for at least another decade. The four nations I'd watch most closely though, are France, Italy, Greece, and Poland. The first two, the EU leadership has said that if either one votes to leave the union won't survive.
France, we've looked at it in enough depth to see what's going on there given that they have the elections. Italy has intermittent economic troubles with parties that favor leaving the Euro. Greece is Greece. Poland is kind of a placeholder for all CEE EU nationlings. They all have their own problems and aren't really much like the West Europeans. Poland of course can be bribed into not calling for an exit, given how much free money they get, but the anti-EU sentiment still manifests in the form of stupid stuff on a consistent basis. Though the CEEs are least likely to actually exit they will contribute a lot to undermining unity.
I don't think that, at this point, the end of the EU is going to look like a bunch of Brexits in a short trickle. Eventually there will be a larger fracture that will impel the union towards separation. And it wouldn't be a moment too soon.
care to elaborate?
LL has previously stated that Eastern Europe cannot integrate with anyone because they didn't integrate under Russian oppression and that shows they will not do it with the rest of Europe either.
On April 07 2017 23:57 LegalLord wrote: No government is going to be stupid enough to allow a referendum on EU membership in the near future, lest they risk the people making the wrong decision, so we're probably not going to see any more countries leave outright, for at least another decade. The four nations I'd watch most closely though, are France, Italy, Greece, and Poland. The first two, the EU leadership has said that if either one votes to leave the union won't survive.
France, we've looked at it in enough depth to see what's going on there given that they have the elections. Italy has intermittent economic troubles with parties that favor leaving the Euro. Greece is Greece. Poland is kind of a placeholder for all CEE EU nationlings. They all have their own problems and aren't really much like the West Europeans. Poland of course can be bribed into not calling for an exit, given how much free money they get, but the anti-EU sentiment still manifests in the form of stupid stuff on a consistent basis. Though the CEEs are least likely to actually exit they will contribute a lot to undermining unity.
I don't think that, at this point, the end of the EU is going to look like a bunch of Brexits in a short trickle. Eventually there will be a larger fracture that will impel the union towards separation. And it wouldn't be a moment too soon.
care to elaborate?
LL has previously stated that Eastern Europe cannot integrate with anyone because they didn't integrate under Russian oppression and that shows they will not do it with the rest of Europe either.
(and yes his argument was complete BS).
I'm Eastern European and I don't see a problem with "integration" with the EU (whatever that means). Politicians could be corrupt, but people want to have laws and money like the west. Also, most Europeans share similar history and for this reason we don't want any wars. It doesn't matter if you're from Eastern Europe or Western Europe. Therefore, even if the European Union no longer exists, there will be ANOTHER European project to take its place. As I said, I'm confident I speak on behalf of a lot of Europeans who are tired of war conflicts in Europe, and an EU project prevents exactly that via trade and integration. It's been successful so far. Call it a failure if stops serving that purpose.
LegalLord, bardtown and the other EU pessimists can troll all day they want, but this is the fact. Europe is better together.
On April 07 2017 23:57 LegalLord wrote: No government is going to be stupid enough to allow a referendum on EU membership in the near future, lest they risk the people making the wrong decision, so we're probably not going to see any more countries leave outright, for at least another decade. The four nations I'd watch most closely though, are France, Italy, Greece, and Poland. The first two, the EU leadership has said that if either one votes to leave the union won't survive.
France, we've looked at it in enough depth to see what's going on there given that they have the elections. Italy has intermittent economic troubles with parties that favor leaving the Euro. Greece is Greece. Poland is kind of a placeholder for all CEE EU nationlings. They all have their own problems and aren't really much like the West Europeans. Poland of course can be bribed into not calling for an exit, given how much free money they get, but the anti-EU sentiment still manifests in the form of stupid stuff on a consistent basis. Though the CEEs are least likely to actually exit they will contribute a lot to undermining unity.
I don't think that, at this point, the end of the EU is going to look like a bunch of Brexits in a short trickle. Eventually there will be a larger fracture that will impel the union towards separation. And it wouldn't be a moment too soon.
care to elaborate?
LL has previously stated that Eastern Europe cannot integrate with anyone because they didn't integrate under Russian oppression and that shows they will not do it with the rest of Europe either.
(and yes his argument was complete BS).
Good thing that's not what I said and that you're strawmanning.
In response to the original query, it's a rather simple statement that the additional cultural differences between the West European nations and the East European ones add further strain to any possible consensus. Recently seen, perhaps, in how uncooperative they were in the refugee matter.
On April 08 2017 04:43 Shield wrote: LegalLord, bardtown and the other EU pessimists can troll all day they want, but this is the fact. Europe is better together.
Fuck yeah! Only trolls disagree, the EU is great and amazing and awesome and no sane person would oppose it!
On April 07 2017 23:57 LegalLord wrote: No government is going to be stupid enough to allow a referendum on EU membership in the near future, lest they risk the people making the wrong decision, so we're probably not going to see any more countries leave outright, for at least another decade. The four nations I'd watch most closely though, are France, Italy, Greece, and Poland. The first two, the EU leadership has said that if either one votes to leave the union won't survive.
France, we've looked at it in enough depth to see what's going on there given that they have the elections. Italy has intermittent economic troubles with parties that favor leaving the Euro. Greece is Greece. Poland is kind of a placeholder for all CEE EU nationlings. They all have their own problems and aren't really much like the West Europeans. Poland of course can be bribed into not calling for an exit, given how much free money they get, but the anti-EU sentiment still manifests in the form of stupid stuff on a consistent basis. Though the CEEs are least likely to actually exit they will contribute a lot to undermining unity.
I don't think that, at this point, the end of the EU is going to look like a bunch of Brexits in a short trickle. Eventually there will be a larger fracture that will impel the union towards separation. And it wouldn't be a moment too soon.
care to elaborate?
LL has previously stated that Eastern Europe cannot integrate with anyone because they didn't integrate under Russian oppression and that shows they will not do it with the rest of Europe either.
(and yes his argument was complete BS).
Good thing that's not what I said and that you're strawmanning.
In response to the original query, it's a rather simple statement that the additional cultural differences between the West European nations and the East European ones add further strain to any possible consensus.
There will always be cultural differences. Are Japan and China the same? Are Vietnam and South Korea the same? Are North Korea and South Korea the same?
What about Canada and USA? Are they the same? Nope. I don't think so. Sometimes there's a healthy dose of cultural differences.
Fuck yeah! Only trolls disagree, the EU is great and amazing and awesome and no sane person would oppose it!
Exactly. Only trolls, uneducated and aggressive people (e.g. Hitler) would want the EU to be disbanded. No other guy would want the EU to be gone because it serves a few purposes very well - free trade, freedom of movement and peace.
On April 07 2017 23:57 LegalLord wrote: No government is going to be stupid enough to allow a referendum on EU membership in the near future, lest they risk the people making the wrong decision, so we're probably not going to see any more countries leave outright, for at least another decade. The four nations I'd watch most closely though, are France, Italy, Greece, and Poland. The first two, the EU leadership has said that if either one votes to leave the union won't survive.
France, we've looked at it in enough depth to see what's going on there given that they have the elections. Italy has intermittent economic troubles with parties that favor leaving the Euro. Greece is Greece. Poland is kind of a placeholder for all CEE EU nationlings. They all have their own problems and aren't really much like the West Europeans. Poland of course can be bribed into not calling for an exit, given how much free money they get, but the anti-EU sentiment still manifests in the form of stupid stuff on a consistent basis. Though the CEEs are least likely to actually exit they will contribute a lot to undermining unity.
I don't think that, at this point, the end of the EU is going to look like a bunch of Brexits in a short trickle. Eventually there will be a larger fracture that will impel the union towards separation. And it wouldn't be a moment too soon.
care to elaborate?
LL has previously stated that Eastern Europe cannot integrate with anyone because they didn't integrate under Russian oppression and that shows they will not do it with the rest of Europe either.
(and yes his argument was complete BS).
Good thing that's not what I said and that you're strawmanning.
In response to the original query, it's a rather simple statement that the additional cultural differences between the West European nations and the East European ones add further strain to any possible consensus.
There will always be cultural differences. Are Japan and China the same? Are Vietnam and South Korea the same? Are North Korea and South Korea the same?
What about Canada and USA? Are they the same? Nope. I don't think so. Sometimes there's a healthy dose of cultural differences.
Is it possible to deal with it in a useful way? To some extent yes; unions of culturally diverse nations are not necessarily impossible.
Is it going to add a strain that should be watched if looking at things that may impel the EU towards separation? It already has.
Pretending we're excatly like Western Europeans is silly but we're certainly close enough you can put us in the same basket together with Western and Southern Europeans.
EPT
