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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017 It does seem that she isn't favored at all but that people aren't exactly going to take a Le Pen-Chirac on this and all vote for her opponent. She would gain a lot of points in the runoff. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10881 Posts
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nojok
France15846 Posts
On January 26 2017 03:00 LegalLord wrote: Do French folk feel that whoever is paired up against Le Pen will still be a guaranteed win? Looking at the polls: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017 It does seem that she isn't favored at all but that people aren't exactly going to take a Le Pen-Chirac on this and all vote for her opponent. She would gain a lot of points in the runoff. Facing Le Pen is a guaranteed win this year, that's for sure, 5 years later, maybe she'll hae a shot. She can win a part of Fillon'voices if he fails to pass and probably a few far leftists votes but not much more than that. The FN is still very polarizing. | ||
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Makro
France16890 Posts
On January 26 2017 03:00 LegalLord wrote: Do French folk feel that whoever is paired up against Le Pen will still be a guaranteed win? Looking at the polls: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017 It does seem that she isn't favored at all but that people aren't exactly going to take a Le Pen-Chirac on this and all vote for her opponent. She would gain a lot of points in the runoff. the front national is a product of françois mitterand in order to make the right divided (so the left can win) and it created that weird situation where facing lepen or whatever front national candidate at the second round a free win not that the other candidate are better though, for me it's six of one and half a dozen | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6273 Posts
On January 26 2017 02:05 TheDwf wrote: No sources? They asked Pénélope Fillon's supposed colleagues (and there are names in the article) if they had seen her: nope. Some parliamentarian journalists also say that they never saw her at the Assemblée. Pénélope Fillon herself said a few months ago that she had “never been involved in the political life of [her] husband”. Plus if there are signs of her activity, why didn't they provide it yet? It's a big scandal, potentially game-ending for Fillon. People talk about it non-stop since yesterday. They claim that she worked for 8 years, so there should be plenty of mails, letters, meetings, agendas, etc. to provide... Sorry my bad. They didn't provide any citations. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On January 26 2017 03:00 LegalLord wrote: Do French folk feel that whoever is paired up against Le Pen will still be a guaranteed win? Yes, except perhaps against Mélenchon, because then she could gain a lot of votes from the right. She would improve her score compared with what happened to her father in 2002, but the Front National remains deeply hated by the ~two thirds of the population | ||
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
On January 26 2017 03:00 LegalLord wrote: Do French folk feel that whoever is paired up against Le Pen will still be a guaranteed win? Looking at the polls: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017 It does seem that she isn't favored at all but that people aren't exactly going to take a Le Pen-Chirac on this and all vote for her opponent. She would gain a lot of points in the runoff. It won't be Le Pen - Chirac level of win, but it won't be Hollande - Sarkozy level of closeness either. Most likely 60/40 or 65/35 in favor of the non-FN candidate. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
The ultra right wing party here has been declared persona non grata by all the other political parties,meaning they already said that they wont join a government with that party. The party is expected to become the biggest and it would be I think the first time in our history that the biggest party was not a member of the government (might have happened before I am not sure but it is extremely uncommon) So with that in mind and considering that a very fragmented result is being projected the most logical coalition would be a coalition of the 4 parties in and around the centre,the classical 3(4) big parties from ages ago (vvd,cda,pvda,d66) which would pretty much mean keeping the status quo when it comes to immigrants and Europe and continuing with the policys of the previous government. There is however a problem with this scenario,the partys on the left side are going into the election collectively to make a block against the ultra right wing party and one of the partys has as condition that there will be no government with the vvd (the neo liberals here). I am not sure if they go through with this but it is a good possibility. If that happens then basicly every possible coalition is being blocked. The left alone wont get enough votes to gain a majority. The right might but since they wont go with the ultra right wing party (its not realy ultra right wing but lets just call it that to make it easier) they wont get a majority either, and with the latest proposal from the left a sort of government of national unity,with all the mainstream partys taking place is not possible anymore either since it would need the support of the vvd. I am very curious about the government the Netherlands will get,and I am starting to think it will take a long time before we actually do get a government. if the left rules out the vvd then I can not see any reasonable coalition. The left could try it with the Christian democrats and a few smaller parties but it will be a very fragmented and weak government,not what we need in current times. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 30 2017 04:48 TheDwf wrote: Hahahahahaha Valls got stomped. What a beautiful day. So far (4322 bureaux out of the 7500+) Hamon won with 58.6% of the votes vs 41.35% for Valls. Valls sounds like a really shitty leader from the rather limited info I've heard about him. Does this impact the race in any substantive way or are these fringe candidates? | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6273 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On January 30 2017 04:51 LegalLord wrote: Valls sounds like a really shitty leader from the rather limited info I've heard about him. Does this impact the race in any substantive way or are these fringe candidates? This is the ultimate sanction of Hollande's term, and the defeat of the social-liberal line within the PS. As a result, (part of) the right wing of the PS and the corresponding electorate will most likely fly to Macron, who has now even more space in the center of the political game. Hamon said in his victory speech that he wants to build a majority with Mélenchon and Jadot (the ecologist candidate). The campaign is now starting (Fillon had his first big meeting today). We'll see how things unfold in the next weeks. | ||
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fluidrone
France1478 Posts
+ Show Spoiler +  my question is obviously "do you guys vote?" .. my question is not "do you vote for the right wing party?" | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5600 Posts
On January 26 2017 02:03 Velr wrote: Question. How is the political climate in your countries in general? Because in Switzerland the far right is growing AND the far left is growing/staying solid, really hurting are just the middle parties. The most stupid thing in swedish politics right now is that we have two very vocal extremist factions that absolutely hate each other but are infact very similar. On the one hand we have the feminist party, which uses crime statistics to argue that the over representation of men justifies limiting the liberties of men in different ways and imposing special taxes for men etc. And then on the other side of the spectrum we have the islamophobic party that argues that the over representation of crimes commited by immigrants (true or imagined) justifies more or less the same type of repression against this particular group. Yet they both hate each other. | ||
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
On January 30 2017 05:33 TheDwf wrote: Hamon said in his victory speech that he wants to build a majority with Mélenchon and Jadot (the ecologist candidate). What does this mean? It's a presidential election, only one can win, right? So is this like a deal that only Hamon runs, but the others get to be his prime minister or something? | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On January 30 2017 08:00 Big J wrote: What does this mean? It's a presidential election, only one can win, right? So is this like a deal that only Hamon runs, but the others get to be his prime minister or something? Yep, some ministries and a deal for the legislative election. | ||
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LightSpectra
United States2551 Posts
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farvacola
United States18857 Posts
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