EPTHow smart was this bet (i bet a little under 200€), because i somehow still believe in french savoir vivre :p
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 649
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Velr
Switzerland10881 Posts
How smart was this bet (i bet a little under 200€), because i somehow still believe in french savoir vivre :p | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
From my non-French perspective I see about a 10-20% chance of a win going forward. As in, if realistic conditions all align favorably for her she will win, but she is nowhere near the favorite. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10881 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
Especially Macron seems to be gaining a lot of traction recently, he seems like a good candidate | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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nojok
France15846 Posts
Now it seems Macron may have a chance, despite not having presented a program yet. Besides a lot of mainstream media have been backing him for months. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On January 31 2017 03:31 LegalLord wrote: I wouldn't be so sure. Against Fillon she has the current Penelopegate scandal to leverage towards painting her opponent as teh suck. Against a more leftist candidate there is a large divergence of message that could help deliver a win. "Wonder boy" candidates like Macron could soon find themselves in trouble if their platform starts to look fractured. And she says that she would prefer to fight Macron, which may be a bluff but it doesn't have to be. Well I'm not sure about anything after 2016 lol, but assuming that Fillon isn't actually going to drop out over this (haven't followed the wife scandal too closely) he might be a good more principled alternative for people who don't want a centrist candidate. We've seen moderates lose against populists a few times now, so maybe a Conservative hardliner can mop up more votes, although I do think that his policies are pretty bad. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 31 2017 03:35 Nyxisto wrote: Well I'm not sure about anything after 2016 lol, but assuming that Fillon isn't actually going to drop out over this (haven't followed the wife scandal too closely) he might be a good more principled alternative for people who don't want a centrist candidate. We've seen moderates lose against populists a few times now, so maybe a Conservative hardliner can mop up more votes, although I do think that his policies are pretty bad. As I say, 10-20%. There is a path to a Le Pen victory in this election that isn't just pie-in-the-sky fantasy, but it would require that a lot of things go right for her. | ||
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kwizach
3658 Posts
It'll be interesting to see Macron's actual programme once he releases it. He's going to try to attract right-wing, centrist and left-wing voters, so he's going to have to find a way to make his current balancing act work with more detailed proposals. In any case, if Le Pen reaches the second round, I wonder if her opponent will agree to debate her or decline to do so as Chirac did in 2002. | ||
Liquid`Drone
Norway28792 Posts
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kwizach
3658 Posts
On January 31 2017 03:47 Liquid`Drone wrote: Problem with a Fillon vs Le Pen scenario is that it sucks either way.. Nationalism is arguably the political ideology I am most at odds with (principally) but thatcherism is far up there as well. Hamon would be my choice by far, but I guess realistically go Macron? Having to choose between Fillon and Le Pen would indeed be extremely depressing, but Fillon would still easily get my vote in that scenario if I was a French citizen. With regards to the first round, I much prefer Hamon to Macron and Mélenchon as well, even though I strongly disagree with some of his proposals, but I would seriously consider voting for Macron if right before the first round the polls still show him as much more likely to reach the second round than Hamon and Mélenchon. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6273 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8074 Posts
On January 31 2017 03:47 Liquid`Drone wrote: Problem with a Fillon vs Le Pen scenario is that it sucks either way.. Nationalism is arguably the political ideology I am most at odds with (principally) but thatcherism is far up there as well. Hamon would be my choice by far, but I guess realistically go Macron? I am with you on nationalism vs thatcherism. One thing you have to remember is that Le Pen is way more on the far right than she claims and Fillon way less on the right. Fillon was Sarkozy PM; it was not great but it was not the UK in the 80's either. He just found a way to get away from both Sarkozy (a nationalist brand) and Juppé (a gaullist and more social democrat brand) to win the primaries. Meanwhile Le Pen is on an opposite trajectory. She leads a party that is deep rooted in real, old school, terroir fascism (coming historically both from the collaboration and french Algeria nostalgia) and has also trying to rebrand herself by normalizing the FN. Fillon elected would be more Sarkozism, a bit more old school, a bit more economically liberal and a bit less nationalist. Le Pen would be at the very very very best Orban on steroids. That's a terrifying perspective. Hamon has 0 chance (I'll vote for him but he is drawing dead), as for Macron.. it's tricky, he is more popular on the right than on the left. I would say he has good chances in both rounds. I don't like him and don't believe in him but he might be the """left"""'s only chance, and France hope if Fillon gets deeper in his scandals. If Le Pen wins then... well i can ask for norwegian citizenship at some point. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Not my country, though, so watching the local world burn for the greater good is something I'm ok with. Le Pen 2017! | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 31 2017 05:17 Artisreal wrote: Like what please? How is an elected Le Pen good for the greater good? What am I missing here? Le Pen will help break up the EU, at this point a dysfunctional project that needs a swift and preemptive mercy killing before it causes things to get even worse. The downside, on the French side, is that they have to have a populist in charge of policy on internal matters. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On January 30 2017 23:51 LightSpectra wrote: TheDwf, what ideology would you classify yourself as (social democrat? democratic socialist? communist)? A lot of what you post resonates with me, so I think on economic issues we're probably in agreement. I'm just curious if you could recommend me any English-language literature that helped form your economic beliefs. Hmm, good question… I would say that I'm closest to libertarian socialism or anarchism. I read almost exclusively in French, so I'm afraid I don't have a lot of English books for you.  Maybe you can try: http://mondediplo.com/ (the English/US version of Le monde diplomatique, a famous left-wing mensual newspaper; there are links to English sites at the bottom of the page) https://www.versobooks.com/books/1602-willing-slaves-of-capital (you can browse the translations of Frédéric Lordon's articles, e. g. this one) https://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2016/06/28/full-transcript-of-the-yanis-varoufakis-noam-chomsky-nypl-discussion/ https://www.truthdig.com/staff/chris_hedges http://lexit-network.org/appeal (maybe you can find some English-speaking heteredox economists at the end, in the signatories) On January 31 2017 03:11 Velr wrote: I have bet, 3 months ago, that LePen won't win (under the disclaimer that hollande won't rerun). How smart was this bet (i bet a little under 200€), because i somehow still believe in french savoir vivre :p Should be easy money. It's not even guaranteed that she will be in the second round, and anyone but Mélenchon would likely stomp her 60:40 to 70:30. On January 31 2017 03:31 LegalLord wrote: I wouldn't be so sure. Against Fillon she has the current Penelopegate scandal to leverage towards painting her opponent as teh suck. Against a more leftist candidate there is a large divergence of message that could help deliver a win. "Wonder boy" candidates like Macron could soon find themselves in trouble if their platform starts to look fractured. And she says that she would prefer to fight Macron, which may be a bluff but it doesn't have to be. She cannot even play that card since her own party is even more corrupt and dishonest. The Front National was actually relatively quiet about the Fillon scandal so far, as they owe money to the European Parliament… because of fake jobs, and have various high rank people charged for shady stuff. Another weakness of Marine Le Pen is that all her opponents will have 4 months of Trump's catastrophic nonsense to throw at her. On January 31 2017 04:47 RvB wrote: I'd probably vote Fillon if I were French. Macron is decent but Hamon and Melenchon are way too left for me. I don't really know that much about French politics though so Macron might fit me more than Fillon. Macron would fit you way more, yeah. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Biff The Understudy
France8074 Posts
On January 31 2017 05:21 LegalLord wrote: Le Pen will help break up the EU, at this point a dysfunctional project that needs a swift and preemptive mercy killing before it causes things to get even worse. The downside, on the French side, is that they have to have a populist in charge of policy on internal matters. Very smart. Let's hope a fascist financed by Putin wins in one of the world biggest economies so it breaks the EU. That sounds like a great idea. LegalLord, your divine wisdom and clarity will always have me in awe. | ||
Koorb
France266 Posts
On January 30 2017 08:00 Big J wrote: What does this mean? It's a presidential election, only one can win, right? So is this like a deal that only Hamon runs, but the others get to be his prime minister or something? It means Hamon expects Mélenchon and Jadot to willingly drop out of the race, in order to prevent voter dispersion within the "left of the left" and hopefully make it to the second round of the election. In return, Hamon and his party will likely offer safe seats in the upcoming legislative election, plus ministerial seats in the event that Hamon win the election. Jadot might accept such a deal, the French Greens are used to these kind of backroom arrangements with the Socialist Party. But they weigh next to nothing, electorally speaking. Mélenchon on the other hand will never desist his candidacy, and he is the one that Hamon badly needs to take out of the race. On January 31 2017 03:47 Liquid`Drone wrote: Problem with a Fillon vs Le Pen scenario is that it sucks either way.. Nationalism is arguably the political ideology I am most at odds with (principally) but thatcherism is far up there as well. Hamon would be my choice by far, but I guess realistically go Macron? It will be thatcherism or nationalism in any case. Macron is a thatcherite light, with a whiff of Tony Blair when it comes to "rubbing their nose in diversity". ------------------ I guess that that the most memorable outcome of this election will be the end of the Socialist Party as the dominant left wing force in French politics. Hamon is expected to struggle for the fourth place in the first round, the party irremediably torn in two, some of its members of parliament are already defecting to Macron... | ||
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