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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
Zurich15352 Posts
On July 11 2016 21:32 Reaps wrote:
The current mass rape / sexual assaults around Europe is one of the most disturbing things to happen in a long time, there is some kind of incident happening almost everyday, i am not sure why it wouldn't be news unless you're just talking about DickMcfanny's link alone, but it's not like that is a one off, similar stuff are happening everywhere all around Europe.
It's a really serious issue of which we should talk about. I do not see why it wouldn't be news worthy, ignoring it is not the solution.
I have nothing against that - let's talk about the general phenomenon, and let's stop posting isolated backwater news that add zero to the discussion. Here, I'll make a start:
The German federal police (BKA) last month released a report of crime over the past 3 months committed by migrants. Including attempts, this totaled up to about 69.000 cases, which break down as follows:
Theft: 29%
Fraud: 28% (2/3 of which was riding the train without a ticket)
Violent crime: 23%
Drug related: 6%
Sexual crime: 1.1%
We can compare that to the general population (2014, to have a comparison before the migration wave):
6.1 mio total cases, breakdown:
Theft: 40%
Fraud 16%
Drug related 4.5%
Violent crime: 18%
Sexual crime 0.8%
If we want to put that in relation it's really about how many migrants we assume. On a lower estimate of 1 mio, migrants commit slightly more sexual crime this year (pp) than the 2014 comparison values for the whole country.
If we go with 1.5 mio migrants, they commit slightly less sexual crime than the whole population.
Sexual crime:
Whole population (2014): 586 per 1mio
Migrants (assuming 1 mio): 760 per 1mio
Migrants (assuming 1.5mio): 506 per 1mio
In any case, migrants commit less crime in total, and a good bunch (riding without a ticket) can be expected to vanish once the process of migration itsself stops, leaving us with even more favorable migrant crime statistics.
The BKA report says as much (that in total, migrants commit less crime than the general population). It also goes on to say that migrants from the Balkans and the Magreb are overrepresented, while Syrians, Iraqis, and Afghanis are underrespresented, without citing numbers though.
Edit: The more I look at the data, the less it makes sense to compare it. We'll just have to refer to the BKA report summary and wait for more data to be released.
My personal opinion: I would go with the lower estimate of 1mio, or even lower than that for migrants residing in Germany. I find the 1.5 mio number hugely inflated. This would meet my personal expectation that migrants have a higher rate of sexual related crime than the general population. This really shouldn't be surprising given that young men are overrepresented among migrants. I would also say the cultural background of many of migrants clashes with our understanding of gender, but in how far this results in actually more crimes being commited is pure speculation, and I doubt we will ever get any data on this.
In any case, even with unfavorable assumptions, the rate of sexual crime among migrants is higher, but certainly not to an extend that warrants all the panic and rage-porn generated by every new piece of anectodal evidence.
My sources are in German but I invite German speakers to fact check. I used precision after decimals solely for sexual crime since that is what we were talking about.
BKA report:
http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148812603/Straftaten-im-sehr-niedrigen-sechsstelligen-Bereich.html
http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/bka-lagebericht-werden-fluechtlinge-haeufiger-straffaellig-als-deutsche/13706830.html
http://www.n24.de/n24/Nachrichten/Politik/d/8642950/bka-legt-bericht-ueber-straftaten-von-fluechtlinge-vor.html
Detailed crime stats for 2014 http://www.bka.de/nn_248962/DE/Publikationen/PolizeilicheKriminalstatistik/2014/pks2014__node.html?__nnn=true
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keep in mind though that most refugees are male and women from those cultures are even less likeley to go to the police if they get sexually assaulted.
meaning: the general population prefers to rape women they know and are either related to or somewhat close. while the general refugee is happy raping any random women on the street.
while both things are without a doubt class A qualifications for subhumanism, the second one affects the public more and is more dangerous to the well-being of society.
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Zurich15352 Posts
I have no idea what you are trying to say and how this would affect the numbers out there, and I find it appalling to say domestic sexual abuse is somehow "less bad" than if it happens among strangers. Looking at the actual totals if anything domestic abuse is where all the focus should be on rather than the assault by stranger, which make up only a fraction of the cases of sexual crime.
In any case, guessing about unreported crime is again baseless speculation.
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its a safety thing. when your public places becoming less safe or even just feel less safe you have less people frequent them, removing themselfes from society. this is something we strictly try to prevent. refugees assaulting strangers more than the general population, thus they are a bigger strain on the feeling of safety.
and for the numbers it means that even though sexual crimes are only about 30% higher for refugees than for the general population, refugees have much less space to commit those crimes because their women are still in the oh so dangerous war zones. (not so dangerous afterall i guess). get that on par and have women from their cultures report on their men as often as ours do (which is still way to low) and your sexual crime rates go through the roof.
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Are public places less safe ? Or is just the usual that some things get more dangerous while others safer as populations. What are their socio economic status ? How do they fare when compared to natives from the same socio economic status ? Etc etc...
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Zurich15352 Posts
On July 11 2016 23:10 hfglgg wrote:
its a safety thing. when your public places becoming less safe or even just feel less safe you have less people frequent them, removing themselfes from society. this is something we strictly try to prevent. refugees assaulting strangers more than the general population, thus they are a bigger strain on the feeling of safety.
and for the numbers it means that even though sexual crimes are only about 30% higher for refugees than for the general population, refugees have much less space to commit those crimes because their women are still in the oh so dangerous war zones. (not so dangerous afterall i guess). get that on par and have women from their cultures report on their men as often as ours do (which is still way to low) and your sexual crime rates go through the roof.
What? None of what you say makes sense to me. Are you seriously saying that with a more equal distribution of men/women among migrants (vs predominantly male) we would have a HIGHER rate of sexual crime committed by migrants?
Look, I understand that sensible numbers tend to upset radicals from both sides of the isle. Accept that reality is not as bad as you think. The world is not scary. The world is not all flowers and rainbows. Migrants aren't bloodthirsty devils who only rape so little because there aren't enough women around. Migrants also aren't angels that will make our country better in some vague way, but are predominantly young males, who are more prone to committing crime, especially violent and sexual crime, than the general population is.
Between the crazies and the rage-porn perpetuated through internet and social media there is usually a very sober reality. Outside of that reality we are just reduced to screaming at each other over ideology.
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i expect them to behave in a similar way than we do in that case, which is that they go for the "easy" targets first. meaning that their wifes and girlfriends are number one rape targets similar to how it is in our culture, followed by everyone else close and with the random stranger from the street beeing the least possible victim.
with them missing those easier targets we only get the least likely option and its still a good chunk higher than for the general population.
i dont really think this is too far fetched.
On July 11 2016 23:19 Godwrath wrote:
Are public places less safe ? Or is just the usual that some things get more dangerous while others safer as populations. What are their socio economic status ? How do they fare when compared to natives from the same socio economic status ? Etc etc...
that depends.
places where refugees from the maghreb states live (i.e. dusseldorf) have a pretty hard time because those guys are the scum of the earth. up to 40% turn criminal within one year. places with less maghrebs are better off, however publicly known places like the hamburg reeperbahn are complaining about declining turnovers due to fewer customers since refugees staying in those areas.
regarding their status within the society, well, they are pretty much the lowest of the low with no chance to ever climbing the ladder due to our way to advanced economy and technology level. there arent that many locals with a similar status and those who are are better spread across the country.
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Also keep in mind that on more than one occasion, police was explicitly told not to report crimes committed by refugees or immigrants to the media. So the statistics you're citing are very likely untrue.
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Zurich15352 Posts
On July 11 2016 23:36 DickMcFanny wrote:
Also keep in mind that on more than one occasion, police was explicitly told not to report crimes committed by refugees or immigrants to the media. So the statistics you're citing are very likely untrue.
"My opinion collides with reality. Reality must be wrong".
Police were told to not report the nationality of criminals on individual cases - which has been standard procedure forever in this country.
Instead, they were asked to compile a report on total crime committed by migrants. Results can be read above.
In no instance have crimes not been reported. Stop lying.
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In Spain the situation is quite different. While there are minorities (essentially inmigrants from Morocco) which have high chances to end up as criminals, they also tend to be the most hostigated by the police. One of the fears nowadays is that they will end up radicalizing if we continue to.
Most 2nd generation inmigrants feel spanish, rather than wherever they came from, which is something really different from other places from what i am seeing, and it probably has a lot more to do with how they feel in comparison to their native neighbours, and how hostile their culture can be against migrants. It's also true that there are other countries with biggest muslims populations so probably Spain is not a good example, as a good chunk of the inmigration comes from countries from south/center america whom even though may differ in customs, it's negligible and speak the same language.
And Spain is more cultural and ethnically diverse than Sweden if i am not mistaken. Dunno, i would expect more detailed stats on how impactful is inmigration on crime, rather than just pointing single cases and defining them as systemic or forgetting that poor people, will tend to end up criminilazing more often than others sectors of the population for obvious reasons, migrants or not.
Edit - By this i am not saying inmigration good, open doors or whatever. Just that demonizing inmigrants as morally bankrupt doesn't seem sensible. For me closing doors is fine if you can't afford to absorb more migrants giving them the chances to be a rightful citizen.
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The situation is totally different for first wave migrants and second wave migrants. For first wave, cultural question are somewhat important : they adapt to a new environment. Oftentime they accept way harder living and working conditions than natives and live a quiet life - totally exploited by the society that welcome them. But for this specific migration in Swede, due to the magnitude of the wave, things might be more difficult : what happen when, in a neighborhood, the % of migrant (from many countries with different cultures and languages) is so high that the native are not the clear majority and thus cannot enforce the law and custom of the country that welcomed the migrants ? Such neighborhoods, throughout history, always have a high degree a delinquency and its a well documented question in sociology (the question of the social disorganisation, through simple things such as different languages or the collision of norms coming from different cultures, and its effect on delinquency and crime).
For the second wave, they are mostly educated in the country and share the same norms and value (mostly). The questions are more economical and social than cultural : do they have the same opportunity, do they have work, how many children of migrants marry children of natives ? etc. Considering the high unemployment in Spain and the overall difficulty of young spanish citizen to obtain a place to live decently, a complete financial autonomy and a fulfilling work, I'm guessing it is not the case for young children of migrants - and this explain their higher degree of delinquency.
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On July 11 2016 22:36 zatic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 11 2016 21:32 Reaps wrote:
The current mass rape / sexual assaults around Europe is one of the most disturbing things to happen in a long time, there is some kind of incident happening almost everyday, i am not sure why it wouldn't be news unless you're just talking about DickMcfanny's link alone, but it's not like that is a one off, similar stuff are happening everywhere all around Europe.
It's a really serious issue of which we should talk about. I do not see why it wouldn't be news worthy, ignoring it is not the solution. I have nothing against that - let's talk about the general phenomenon, and let's stop posting isolated backwater news that add zero to the discussion. Here, I'll make a start: The German federal police (BKA) last month released a report of crime over the past 6 months committed by migrants. Including attempts, this totaled up to about 69.000 cases, which break down as follows: Theft: 29% Fraud: 28% (2/3 of which was riding the train without a ticket) Violent crime: 23% Drug related: 6% Sexual crime: 1.1% We can compare that to the general population (2014, to have a comparison before the migration wave): 6.1 mio total cases, breakdown: Theft: 40% Fraud 16% Drug related 4.5% Violent crime: 18% Sexual crime 0.8% If we want to put that in relation it's really about how many migrants we assume. On a lower estimate of 1 mio, migrants commit slightly more sexual crime this year (pp) than the 2014 comparison values for the whole country. If we go with 1.5 mio migrants, they commit slightly less sexual crime than the whole population. Sexual crime: Whole population (2014): 586 per 1mio Migrants (assuming 1 mio): 760 per 1mio Migrants (assuming 1.5mio): 506 per 1mio In any case, migrants commit less crime in total, and a good bunch (riding without a ticket) can be expected to vanish once the process of migration itsself stops, leaving us with even more favorable migrant crime statistics. The BKA report says as much (that in total, migrants commit less crime than the general population). It also goes on to say that migrants from the Balkans and the Magreb are overrepresented, while Syrians, Iraqis, and Afghanis are underrespresented, without citing numbers though. My personal opinion: I would go with the lower estimate of 1mio, or even lower than that for migrants residing in Germany. I find the 1.5 mio number hugely inflated. This would meet my personal expectation that migrants have a higher rate of sexual related crime than the general population. This really shouldn't be surprising given that young men are overrepresented among migrants. I would also say the cultural background of many of migrants clashes with our understanding of gender, but in how far this results in actually more crimes being commited is pure speculation, and I doubt we will ever get any data on this. In any case, even with unfavorable assumptions, the rate of sexual crime among migrants is higher, but certainly not to an extend that warrants all the panic and rage-porn generated by every new piece of anectodal evidence. My sources are in German but I invite German speakers to fact check. I used precision after decimals solely for sexual crime since that is what we were talking about. BKA report: http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148812603/Straftaten-im-sehr-niedrigen-sechsstelligen-Bereich.htmlhttp://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/bka-lagebericht-werden-fluechtlinge-haeufiger-straffaellig-als-deutsche/13706830.htmlhttp://www.n24.de/n24/Nachrichten/Politik/d/8642950/bka-legt-bericht-ueber-straftaten-von-fluechtlinge-vor.htmlDetailed crime stats for 2014 http://www.bka.de/nn_248962/DE/Publikationen/PolizeilicheKriminalstatistik/2014/pks2014__node.html?__nnn=trueEdit: Since we experience continously falling crime rates in Germany year over year, comparing 2016 to 2014 isn't really fair, but the fair comparison will only be possible next year, and it should be close enough anyway. The German federal police (BKA) last month released a report of crime over the past 6 months committed by migrants. Including attempts, this totaled up to about 69.000 cases, which break down as follows: is that a typo?. the german article clearly states 3 months As the Germany radio reported on Wednesday, nearly 69,000 crimes were subsequently committed or attempted by immigrants in the first three months of this year.
69k in 6 months is not believable since in the leaked report from Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Agency during 2014 - 2015 there were The report is only supposed to be seen by police and other government employees, but it ended up in the hands of Bild, a German newspaper, Deutsche Welle reports.
What the document shows primarily is that refugees are responsible for 208,344 crimes.
A total of 32 percent of those crimes were related to asset or fraud offenses, and another 33 percent were due to theft. Of the total number of crimes, only 1 percent, or 1,688, had anything to do with sexual offenses. There were 458 cases of serious sexual assault, which includes either rape or coercion.
Not all ethnic groups were equal in the amount of crimes committed. Viewed proportionally, there were more offenders from Eritrea, Nigeria and countries from the Balkans like Serbia and Albania. In absolute numbers, Syrians committed 24 percent of refugee crimes, but Serbs only comprised 2 percent of the refugee population and managed to account for an incredible 13 percent of crimes.
Bild noted, however, the report did not include the reported cases of sexual assault in Cologne on New Year’s Eve, skewing the data slightly.
so 69k in 3 months would make (guestimate) ~270k per 2016; a 30% increase? ...
and as someone else mentioned, refugee on refugee crimes could be vastly unreported; they don't see them as crimes or i don't know, they got used to them since ... culture or whatever.
Edit: or read this http://www.meforum.org/6031/migrants-high-crime-germany , a take on http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2016/05/pks-und-pmk-2015.html
it doesn't look good at all.
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Zurich15352 Posts
On July 12 2016 02:45 xM(Z wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2016 22:36 zatic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 11 2016 21:32 Reaps wrote:
The current mass rape / sexual assaults around Europe is one of the most disturbing things to happen in a long time, there is some kind of incident happening almost everyday, i am not sure why it wouldn't be news unless you're just talking about DickMcfanny's link alone, but it's not like that is a one off, similar stuff are happening everywhere all around Europe.
It's a really serious issue of which we should talk about. I do not see why it wouldn't be news worthy, ignoring it is not the solution. I have nothing against that - let's talk about the general phenomenon, and let's stop posting isolated backwater news that add zero to the discussion. Here, I'll make a start: The German federal police (BKA) last month released a report of crime over the past 6 months committed by migrants. Including attempts, this totaled up to about 69.000 cases, which break down as follows: Theft: 29% Fraud: 28% (2/3 of which was riding the train without a ticket) Violent crime: 23% Drug related: 6% Sexual crime: 1.1% We can compare that to the general population (2014, to have a comparison before the migration wave): 6.1 mio total cases, breakdown: Theft: 40% Fraud 16% Drug related 4.5% Violent crime: 18% Sexual crime 0.8% If we want to put that in relation it's really about how many migrants we assume. On a lower estimate of 1 mio, migrants commit slightly more sexual crime this year (pp) than the 2014 comparison values for the whole country. If we go with 1.5 mio migrants, they commit slightly less sexual crime than the whole population. Sexual crime: Whole population (2014): 586 per 1mio Migrants (assuming 1 mio): 760 per 1mio Migrants (assuming 1.5mio): 506 per 1mio In any case, migrants commit less crime in total, and a good bunch (riding without a ticket) can be expected to vanish once the process of migration itsself stops, leaving us with even more favorable migrant crime statistics. The BKA report says as much (that in total, migrants commit less crime than the general population). It also goes on to say that migrants from the Balkans and the Magreb are overrepresented, while Syrians, Iraqis, and Afghanis are underrespresented, without citing numbers though. My personal opinion: I would go with the lower estimate of 1mio, or even lower than that for migrants residing in Germany. I find the 1.5 mio number hugely inflated. This would meet my personal expectation that migrants have a higher rate of sexual related crime than the general population. This really shouldn't be surprising given that young men are overrepresented among migrants. I would also say the cultural background of many of migrants clashes with our understanding of gender, but in how far this results in actually more crimes being commited is pure speculation, and I doubt we will ever get any data on this. In any case, even with unfavorable assumptions, the rate of sexual crime among migrants is higher, but certainly not to an extend that warrants all the panic and rage-porn generated by every new piece of anectodal evidence. My sources are in German but I invite German speakers to fact check. I used precision after decimals solely for sexual crime since that is what we were talking about. BKA report: http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148812603/Straftaten-im-sehr-niedrigen-sechsstelligen-Bereich.htmlhttp://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/bka-lagebericht-werden-fluechtlinge-haeufiger-straffaellig-als-deutsche/13706830.htmlhttp://www.n24.de/n24/Nachrichten/Politik/d/8642950/bka-legt-bericht-ueber-straftaten-von-fluechtlinge-vor.htmlDetailed crime stats for 2014 http://www.bka.de/nn_248962/DE/Publikationen/PolizeilicheKriminalstatistik/2014/pks2014__node.html?__nnn=trueEdit: Since we experience continously falling crime rates in Germany year over year, comparing 2016 to 2014 isn't really fair, but the fair comparison will only be possible next year, and it should be close enough anyway. The German federal police (BKA) last month released a report of crime over the past 6 months committed by migrants. Including attempts, this totaled up to about 69.000 cases, which break down as follows: is that a typo?. the german article clearly states 3 months.
You are right, will correct accordingly when I am home.
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On July 11 2016 23:40 zatic wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2016 23:36 DickMcFanny wrote:
Also keep in mind that on more than one occasion, police was explicitly told not to report crimes committed by refugees or immigrants to the media. So the statistics you're citing are very likely untrue. "My opinion collides with reality. Reality must be wrong". Police were told to not report the nationality of criminals on individual cases - which has been standard procedure forever in this country. Instead, they were asked to compile a report on total crime committed by migrants. Results can be read above. In no instance have crimes not been reported. Stop lying.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/umgang-mit-fluechtlingen-keine-strafverfolgung-bei-ladendiebstahl-14038889.html
we have always been at war with Eurasia!
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Zurich15352 Posts
On July 12 2016 03:14 Hryul wrote:Show nested quote +On July 11 2016 23:40 zatic wrote:On July 11 2016 23:36 DickMcFanny wrote:
Also keep in mind that on more than one occasion, police was explicitly told not to report crimes committed by refugees or immigrants to the media. So the statistics you're citing are very likely untrue. "My opinion collides with reality. Reality must be wrong". Police were told to not report the nationality of criminals on individual cases - which has been standard procedure forever in this country. Instead, they were asked to compile a report on total crime committed by migrants. Results can be read above. In no instance have crimes not been reported. Stop lying. http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/umgang-mit-fluechtlingen-keine-strafverfolgung-bei-ladendiebstahl-14038889.htmlwe have always been at war with Eurasia!
Again I am puzzled as to what people are trying to tell me. Can you write a few more lines except a link and a quote?
If not I can only guess: You are trying to point out that I am wrong and that the police did in fact cover up crimes committed by migrants? Well, that's not what the article says, and it is the perfect example why local news should stay local and not be used to discuss nation or European wide issues.
The article is about the city police of Kiel supposedly not identifying and charging migrants on their way to Sweden who are caught for petty theft that don't carry papers. This is based on an internal memo from the local police, and as the article says it is unclear if this was actually followed-up on or not. The police themselves say this directive was superseded by the time the story came out.
At no point have crimes been covered up or not reported. It's a story of the police force of a small city at the edge of Germany, right in path of migrants going to Sweden being overwhelmed. It's a real issue for that city, and the way the dealt with is terrible, which has been discussed at length (even on the federal level) when the original story came out.
All that said, jumping from that one local incident to the conclusion that the entire German police, communal, state, and federal is part of some huge conspiracy to cover up crimes is completely ridiculous.
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Zurich15352 Posts
Anyway I don't find the whole refugee/migration debate particularly interesting, certainly not on the level it's being discussed currently. And as I said further up, if anything I see myself firmly in the middle, trying to find a path of reason among crazies from both sides.
All I want is us to stop spamming local sensationalized news without context and scream at each other after. But I guess a man can only hope.
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On July 11 2016 23:29 hfglgg wrote:i expect them to behave in a similar way than we do in that case, which is that they go for the "easy" targets first. meaning that their wifes and girlfriends are number one rape targets similar to how it is in our culture, followed by everyone else close and with the random stranger from the street beeing the least possible victim. with them missing those easier targets we only get the least likely option and its still a good chunk higher than for the general population. i dont really think this is too far fetched. Show nested quote +On July 11 2016 23:19 Godwrath wrote:
Are public places less safe ? Or is just the usual that some things get more dangerous while others safer as populations. What are their socio economic status ? How do they fare when compared to natives from the same socio economic status ? Etc etc...
that depends. places where refugees from the maghreb states live (i.e. dusseldorf) have a pretty hard time because those guys are the scum of the earth. up to 40% turn criminal within one year. places with less maghrebs are better off, however publicly known places like the hamburg reeperbahn are complaining about declining turnovers due to fewer customers since refugees staying in those areas. regarding their status within the society, well, they are pretty much the lowest of the low with no chance to ever climbing the ladder due to our way to advanced economy and technology level. there arent that many locals with a similar status and those who are are better spread across the country.
Except for Lybia the people from the maghreb aren't refugees. They're economic migrants.
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Zatic, by now you should notice your asking "why is it news?" only results in more pages about the topic you don't consider newsworthy. It's news because enough people consider it newsworthy, that's how news work.
I think (hope) people are posting news like these because they see them as symptoms of a greater problem (refugees being more violent than natives), not because they care about that one rape or some other violent crime. It's like when a black person gets shot by American police, except this time the right is perceived as the side which blows the thing out of proportion. One guy getting shot is rarely newsworthy, but when you put it as an example of police brutality, it's news and worth discussing.
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Oh, I stand corrected. Now going by your sources, refugees are only four times as likely to rape women as the domestic population, that's a totally reasonable trade-off for all the Fachkräfte we're getting.
Mea culpa!
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Zurich15352 Posts
On July 12 2016 07:57 DickMcFanny wrote:Oh, I stand corrected. Now going by your sources, refugees are only four times as likely to rape women as the domestic population, that's a totally reasonable trade-off for all the Fachkräfte we're getting. Mea culpa!
Actually no, when I went back at it I realized that the 2014 stats doesn't include attempts as far as I can tell, the data on migrants does  So I am afraid still no comparable data out there. Well, I tried.
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EPT
