European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 488

On June 27 2016 20:41 Godwrath wrote:
Well, one option has an uncertain result (atleast on my uneducated eyes), the another is certain. If we continue to vote the traditional parties, corruption won't go away, or atleast, start a process to move away from it. That's what we are seeing.

I am all ears on why it would end up being the same as syriza.

On June 28 2016 09:48 pmh wrote:
Jim Rogers on Brexit: "Worse than any bear market you’ve seen in your lifetime"

The UK's decision to leave the European Union will lead to an economic crisis more severe than what the world faced in 2008, according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.

“This is going to be worse than any bear market you’ve seen in your lifetime,” he said on Yahoo Finance’s “Market Movers” program Monday. “2008 was bad because of debt. The debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US, for instance, have been going sideways for 18 months to 24 months. That’s called a distribution by many people. When you have distribution for a year and a half, it usually leads to bad things.”

Rogers — who cofounded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in the 1970s — believes the “leave” movement’s victory last week may threaten the British union. While any negotiated deal may help assuage the market’s Brexit fears, Rogers foresees a “bad case scenario” where Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK and London’s clout diminishes significantly as financial institutions move towards continental Europe.

“The UK already has huge international debts and it has balance of trade problems and budget problems,” he said. “The bear case is the pound disappears. England becomes Spain or Poland or Italy or something.”

While he doesn’t see an immediate collapse of England’s economy, Rogers anticipates a long-term decline in the country’s prospects.

“The deterioration will continue and make stocks go down a lot,” he warned.

Brexit’s win will also embolden other countries to leave the EU and separatist movements to break up a few states, Rogers predicted. That could make the world to look significantly different in just a half a decade.


“The EU as we know it will not exist,” he said. “The euro as we know it will not exist. Some people leave, others may join — unlikely, but they could join. There are a lot of angry people all over the world. Look at what’s happening in America." In the UK, he added, "People are making unbelievably incompetent statements but they’re very happy to be getting out [of the EU]. They’re so angry.”

Rogers said he is short US stocks but is long Chinese stocks and agricultural commodities. “These are the things that might do well no matter what happens going forward,” he explained. “These are going to be perilous times. I hope I get it right.”

He also expects a tougher time for the euro even relative to the British pound, as movements in other part of the European Union threaten its foundations. Rogers is long US dollars and is less negative on the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

“There are not many sound currencies left anymore,” he said. “They’ve all been ruined by politicians.”



This guy has been bearish on Europe for a few years now but this time I think he is right.
We are racing towards a huge geo political,social and financial crisis.


"Bigger deficit spending will only be possible with the central bank buying the bonds which won't happen."

The ecb has a 1200 billion euro bond buying program active?
Not sure what you mean here.
Brexit will result in an extension of that program for sure.

(Reuters) - Two suicide bombers opened fire before blowing themselves up at the entrance to the main international airport in Istanbul on Tuesday, killing at least 10 people and wounding many more, Turkish officials and witnesses said.

Police fired shots to try to stop the attackers just before they reached a security checkpoint at the arrivals hall of the Ataturk airport but they blew themselves up, one of the officials said.

Speaking in parliament, Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said that based on initial information he could only confirm that there had been one attacker. He said 10 people were killed and around 20 wounded.

"According to information I have received, at the entrance to the Ataturk Airport international terminal a terrorist first opened fire with a Kalashnikov and then blew themself up," he said in comments broadcast by CNN Turk.

Ataturk is Turkey's largest airport and a major transport hub for international travellers. Pictures posted on social media from the site showed wounded people lying on the ground inside and outside one of the terminal buildings

Television footage showed ambulances rushing to the scene. One witness told CNN Turk that gunfire was heard from the car park at the airport. Taxis were ferrying wounded people from the airport, the witness said.

Authorities halted the takeoff of scheduled flights from the airport and passengers were transferred to hotels, a Turkish Airlines official said. Earlier an airport official said some flights to the airport had been diverted

Turkey has suffered a spate of bombings this year, including two suicide attacks in tourist areas of Istanbul blamed on Islamic State, and two car bombings in the capital, Ankara, which were claimed by a Kurdish militant group.

In the most recent attack, a car bomb ripped through a police bus in central Istanbul during the morning rush hour, killing 11 people and wounding 36 near the main tourist district, a major university and the mayor's office.