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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 346

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
AngryMag
Profile Joined November 2011
Germany1040 Posts
December 07 2015 17:58 GMT
#6901
I am not surprised by FN's gains. Follows the trend we already have in eastern Europe, Finland, GB and other countries. The european ordoliberals are really doing their best to shove voters towards the right. I doubt this election makes them hear the warning shot, it will be business us usual until someone really anti EU gets voted into office and the whole house of cards crumbles. And if that happens it won't be the fault of the cataclyst, it will be the fault of politics doing the exact opposite of what the elactorate wants majoritywise for to long.

Cant fault the French for looking for alternatives if more established parties completely fail at providing them.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22373 Posts
December 07 2015 18:07 GMT
#6902
The effects of the increase in terrorist activities in France should not be underestimated. While the entire European region seems to be further right I would guess France to veer a lot more because of these attacks. Being scared tends to make people turn to the right.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
AngryMag
Profile Joined November 2011
Germany1040 Posts
December 07 2015 18:14 GMT
#6903
On December 08 2015 03:07 Gorsameth wrote:
The effects of the increase in terrorist activities in France should not be underestimated. While the entire European region seems to be further right I would guess France to veer a lot more because of these attacks. Being scared tends to make people turn to the right.


No the shift towards right happened already before that in other countries years ago (UKIP in GB, the dudes in Poland, Finland, Berlusconi Italia). On top of that some french dudes already said that they don't see the attacks as main reason, more the failures of the others.

The being scared thing is trivial. Both sides of the political spectrum use scare mongering all the time. Rightie says Johnny Foreigner is taking your jobs and safety. Lefty says without Johnny Foreigner we'll lose our wealth and won't create jobs. Same thing. So no people being scared doesn't lead them to vote right, the statement isn't enough to describe very complex matters.
Incognoto
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
France10239 Posts
December 07 2015 18:21 GMT
#6904
On December 08 2015 03:07 Gorsameth wrote:
The effects of the increase in terrorist activities in France should not be underestimated. While the entire European region seems to be further right I would guess France to veer a lot more because of these attacks. Being scared tends to make people turn to the right.


I don't really think that people voted for the FN because of the terrorist attacks. People were going to vote for the FN since before those happened, because most of France is absolutely fucking fed-up with corrupt and incompetent politicians in the first place.

I still see these votes as a nice middle finger to politicians, rather than actually agreeing with the garbage policies which the FN has.
maru lover forever
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-07 20:33:22
December 07 2015 20:26 GMT
#6905
On December 08 2015 01:27 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 01:21 plated.rawr wrote:
On December 07 2015 20:59 DickMcFanny wrote:
Seems like the entire world is moving away from socialism and towards the far right. Neocons are winning everywhere and everything...

The public opinion moving towards the right in times of economic downturn is normal. Lean times makes people worry for 'theirs' and ignore others - good times gives people opportunity to worry about others, as 'theirs' is safer. Couple this with unrest in large parts of the world and the following refugee crisis connected to this, and the right also gains momentum from those worried about increased immigration and refugee intake. The fact that the immigration and refugee politics on the left generally only focuses on good times all around and that plans for lean times generally dont exist, alienates a lot of the mood-following voters, "forcing" them into the clutches of the parties with politics aimed at reducing immigrant and refugee intake - in general, reactionary, anti-human-rights parties.

The politics will trend towards the left again when the economy and global stability improves, or in the aftermath of a great war in which we suffer great losses.

While generally true, remember that the single largest turn towards socialism in the US, that being the New Deal under FDR, took place while the country was gripped with possibly the worst poverty it has ever seen. Whether that applies to Europe remains to be seen of course.

Not to mention people voted socialist massively before the FN. The problem is that the so called "socialists" betrayed their electors. Just to give a little perspective the socialist party won all but one region in the last election five years ago, in the midst of the crisis (12 regions out of 13). Now they will possibly have 2... and the FN maybe up to 6. The FN always rise when the socialist party is in power, because people are fed up with their policies : they always lie, always betray their own agenda.
If you want to find an explanation in the FN, don't listen too much to the media, and look at the history of the socialist party.

And people should read what the national front propose, it is very far from the tea party (they actually have been stealing the entirety of the extreme left propositions, to a point that the representative of french firm syndicate said they had an "extreme left" agenda that would "destroy" France : for exemple, they propose an increase in minimum wage, going back to 60 yo for retirement, a tough negociation with europe and, if it fails, to get out of the euro).
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
December 07 2015 20:36 GMT
#6906
FN has almost nothing to do with the American Republican party (for American's commenting) its a bit like if Trump had his own party, but just slightly. I think WhiteDog would agree that the FN generally says something along the lines of "France needs to stay French" plus "Keep groups XYZ (not me) from receiving government welfare so I can keep mine".
Freeeeeeedom
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-07 20:47:50
December 07 2015 20:46 GMT
#6907
On December 08 2015 05:36 cLutZ wrote:
FN has almost nothing to do with the American Republican party (for American's commenting) its a bit like if Trump had his own party, but just slightly. I think WhiteDog would agree that the FN generally says something along the lines of "France needs to stay French" plus "Keep groups XYZ (not me) from receiving government welfare so I can keep mine".

Really there's many national front in reality. The national front in the south (PACA region, provence alpes côtes d'azur) is mostly racist, and in this region the FN existed for a long time. In the north (nord pas de calais) and the east it's a vote of frustration and resentment, in a place that has been to the left almost from the revolution (it's one of the hot spot of the revolution by the way...), and in this land, it's a party that resemble the old communist party.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6274 Posts
December 08 2015 10:21 GMT
#6908
The man running negotiations with Britain to keep it in the European Union said leaders could seal a deal in February but warned David Cameron that a central demand to curb immigration may be asking too much.

Donald Tusk, who next week chairs the first detailed talks on the issue between the British prime minister and all his 27 peers, sent EU leaders a progress report a month after Cameron laid out four sets of reforms he wants if he is to campaign for continued EU membership in a referendum due within two years.

"We have made good progress," the European Council president said in a letter that contained few surprises. " We ... have to overcome the substantial political differences that we still have on the issue of social benefits and free movement."

After next week's summit, he added: "We should be able to prepare a concrete proposal to be finally adopted in February."

Many governments are willing to make changes to keep Britain in the Union. Tusk said the main stumbling block was Cameron's pledge to cut immigration to Britain by denying benefits to workers from other EU states for four years after they arrive.

Anti-EU campaigners said Tusk's letter showed Cameron would secure little of consequence from Brussels. But the prime minister's office said he would stick with a proposal that many leaders, especially in the EU's poorer east, say would mean illegal discrimination and denying a fundamental freedom to EU citizens.

"There is a strong will on the part of all sides to find solutions," wrote Tusk, while describing as "difficult" the demands Cameron set out in a letter on Nov. 10.

In particular, Tusk said changes to social benefit rules are "the most delicate" of Cameron's four reform "baskets". The former Polish premier noted support for fighting welfare abuses and a possibility of reducing what Britain pays in child benefit to workers whose children live in poorer countries.

But one welfare request was very tricky: "There is presently no consensus on the request that people coming to Britain from the EU must live there and contribute for four years before they qualify for in-work benefits or social housing," Tusk said.

Cameron's spokeswoman said the demand would stay on the table for the Brussels summit on Dec. 17-18. "This issue that we are trying to address here is how better to control migration from within the EU," she said. "We will continue to have discussions and explore the options."

Just how flexible Cameron may be is unclear. Tusk suggested some welfare reforms were possible. Cameron's spokeswoman said: "We need reform in all four areas that we have outlined."

British finance minister George Osborne, speaking in New York late on Monday, said further negotiations would be "complex and robust", but that the most recent developments showed more progress than many people had expected.

uk.reuters.com
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-08 13:33:19
December 08 2015 13:33 GMT
#6909
On December 08 2015 05:46 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 05:36 cLutZ wrote:
FN has almost nothing to do with the American Republican party (for American's commenting) its a bit like if Trump had his own party, but just slightly. I think WhiteDog would agree that the FN generally says something along the lines of "France needs to stay French" plus "Keep groups XYZ (not me) from receiving government welfare so I can keep mine".

Really there's many national front in reality. The national front in the south (PACA region, provence alpes côtes d'azur) is mostly racist, and in this region the FN existed for a long time. In the north (nord pas de calais) and the east it's a vote of frustration and resentment, in a place that has been to the left almost from the revolution (it's one of the hot spot of the revolution by the way...), and in this land, it's a party that resemble the old communist party.

Long story short : the FN says to the people what the people wants to hear. Demagogy at its finest.

On December 08 2015 00:51 Velr wrote:
Its an AFD that used to be the NPD.

That's pretty accurate.
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
December 08 2015 14:06 GMT
#6910
On December 08 2015 01:27 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 01:21 plated.rawr wrote:
On December 07 2015 20:59 DickMcFanny wrote:
Seems like the entire world is moving away from socialism and towards the far right. Neocons are winning everywhere and everything...

The public opinion moving towards the right in times of economic downturn is normal. Lean times makes people worry for 'theirs' and ignore others - good times gives people opportunity to worry about others, as 'theirs' is safer. Couple this with unrest in large parts of the world and the following refugee crisis connected to this, and the right also gains momentum from those worried about increased immigration and refugee intake. The fact that the immigration and refugee politics on the left generally only focuses on good times all around and that plans for lean times generally dont exist, alienates a lot of the mood-following voters, "forcing" them into the clutches of the parties with politics aimed at reducing immigrant and refugee intake - in general, reactionary, anti-human-rights parties.

The politics will trend towards the left again when the economy and global stability improves, or in the aftermath of a great war in which we suffer great losses.

While generally true, remember that the single largest turn towards socialism in the US, that being the New Deal under FDR, took place while the country was gripped with possibly the worst poverty it has ever seen. Whether that applies to Europe remains to be seen of course.

unlike the u.s. european governments don't really control their own currency. it's pretty hilarious
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-08 17:03:09
December 08 2015 17:03 GMT
#6911
The EU still doesn't have financial controls over the Euro? My goodness. I guess they are still busy dealing with the ramifications that they don't have time to prevent a future crisis.
Doublemint
Profile Joined July 2011
Austria8745 Posts
December 08 2015 17:42 GMT
#6912
On December 09 2015 02:03 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
The EU still doesn't have financial controls over the Euro? My goodness. I guess they are still busy dealing with the ramifications that they don't have time to prevent a future crisis.


he said the EU governments - plural.

the EU - indirectly because the ECB is like the FED an *cough* independent body *cough* - has somewhat control.
Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before the fall.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
December 08 2015 19:02 GMT
#6913
On December 08 2015 22:33 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 05:46 WhiteDog wrote:
On December 08 2015 05:36 cLutZ wrote:
FN has almost nothing to do with the American Republican party (for American's commenting) its a bit like if Trump had his own party, but just slightly. I think WhiteDog would agree that the FN generally says something along the lines of "France needs to stay French" plus "Keep groups XYZ (not me) from receiving government welfare so I can keep mine".

Really there's many national front in reality. The national front in the south (PACA region, provence alpes côtes d'azur) is mostly racist, and in this region the FN existed for a long time. In the north (nord pas de calais) and the east it's a vote of frustration and resentment, in a place that has been to the left almost from the revolution (it's one of the hot spot of the revolution by the way...), and in this land, it's a party that resemble the old communist party.

Long story short : the FN says to the people what the people wants to hear. Demagogy at its finest.

Show nested quote +
On December 08 2015 00:51 Velr wrote:
Its an AFD that used to be the NPD.

That's pretty accurate.

like all parties ?
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-08 19:23:59
December 08 2015 19:23 GMT
#6914
I don't know usually you claim that the liberal elite is not listening at all and ignoring the average guy, you have to pick one. I actually find it really surprising how few European mainstream parties are jumping on the scare bandwagon. Eastern European governments seem to try to make up for all of them though.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-08 20:06:44
December 08 2015 19:46 GMT
#6915
On December 09 2015 04:23 Nyxisto wrote:
I don't know usually you claim that the liberal elite is not listening at all and ignoring the average guy, you have to pick one. I actually find it really surprising how few European mainstream parties are jumping on the scare bandwagon. Eastern European governments seem to try to make up for all of them though.

The "scare bandwagon" is not the dominant ideology of the moment, just look at the media. The dominant ideology is the liberalism. Even the national front is not really hated for its position in regard to immigration (a position almost entirely accepted by the right in France), like the recent comment from people like Gattaz suggest, but for its position on the europe and the free market.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
maartendq
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Belgium3115 Posts
December 08 2015 20:07 GMT
#6916
On December 09 2015 04:23 Nyxisto wrote:
I don't know usually you claim that the liberal elite is not listening at all and ignoring the average guy, you have to pick one. I actually find it really surprising how few European mainstream parties are jumping on the scare bandwagon. Eastern European governments seem to try to make up for all of them though.

Actually, while few of the mainstream parties do not jump on the scare bandwagon it is those parties that are losing ground to relatively young parties that pull the scare bandwagon. In Belgium a conservative party that had never gotten much traction before suddenly experienced a meteoric rise the past five or six years, largely at the cost of the more traditional parties. It now towers above all the others, and its president is regarded/suspected by many the man who really pulls the strings and calls the shots, even though he is not Belgium's prime minister. The same phenomenon is happening all over Europe: in the north it is mainly conservatives (Wilders' PVV, True Finns, AfD, Le Pen's Front Nationale ...) that are on the rise while in the south it is socialist and marxist parties (Syriza, Podemos, Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement, Portugal's Partido Socialista).

It is an interesting - if dangerous - evolution, but I think the main reason is that the parties that have traditionally been at the centre of European national politics are basically ground down by vested interests who have much to lose if those traditional parties were to actually start taking the woes of the people on the street seriously. Their own agendas take precedence over what the people actually want them to do. In other words, the people feel that politicians of the traditional parties no longer bargain for the interests of their voters but rather for the interests of several vested parties (be it trade unions, trade organisations, NGOs or corporations).
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-08 20:43:25
December 08 2015 20:39 GMT
#6917
I don't know if I'd paint it so dire. Social democrats and conservatives in almost all European countries still hold an absolute majority by quite a healthy margin. And although it's pretty scary how fast parties like the FN are growing, they're rarely getting more than a quarter of the votes. Which I still find pretty fucked up but it's not like they're going to rule any time soon.

In regards to dominant ideology, I think there are pretty much two different worlds. People who cheer for Le Pen, Wilders or Trump are living in a different world. They don't believe the "mainstream media", there's no rational thing you could say to convince them to give up their position and there are a shit-ton of conspiracy ideas floating around. If you're carrying a gallows through the street to protest a trade agreement you're not acting rationally any more.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6274 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-08 21:17:35
December 08 2015 21:17 GMT
#6918
On December 09 2015 02:42 Doublemint wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2015 02:03 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
The EU still doesn't have financial controls over the Euro? My goodness. I guess they are still busy dealing with the ramifications that they don't have time to prevent a future crisis.


he said the EU governments - plural.

the EU - indirectly because the ECB is like the FED an *cough* independent body *cough* - has somewhat control.

That is on purpose with a free floating currency. The ECB has plenty of room to influence the currency via monetary policy anyway like you mentioned.

On December 09 2015 05:07 maartendq wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 09 2015 04:23 Nyxisto wrote:
I don't know usually you claim that the liberal elite is not listening at all and ignoring the average guy, you have to pick one. I actually find it really surprising how few European mainstream parties are jumping on the scare bandwagon. Eastern European governments seem to try to make up for all of them though.

Actually, while few of the mainstream parties do not jump on the scare bandwagon it is those parties that are losing ground to relatively young parties that pull the scare bandwagon. In Belgium a conservative party that had never gotten much traction before suddenly experienced a meteoric rise the past five or six years, largely at the cost of the more traditional parties. It now towers above all the others, and its president is regarded/suspected by many the man who really pulls the strings and calls the shots, even though he is not Belgium's prime minister. The same phenomenon is happening all over Europe: in the north it is mainly conservatives (Wilders' PVV, True Finns, AfD, Le Pen's Front Nationale ...) that are on the rise while in the south it is socialist and marxist parties (Syriza, Podemos, Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement, Portugal's Partido Socialista).

It is an interesting - if dangerous - evolution, but I think the main reason is that the parties that have traditionally been at the centre of European national politics are basically ground down by vested interests who have much to lose if those traditional parties were to actually start taking the woes of the people on the street seriously. Their own agendas take precedence over what the people actually want them to do. In other words, the people feel that politicians of the traditional parties no longer bargain for the interests of their voters but rather for the interests of several vested parties (be it trade unions, trade organisations, NGOs or corporations).

In The Netherlands it's actually not just the PVV on the right that has grown but also the hard left SP. They're both stuck at like 15-20 seats out of 150 which is what the other big parties poll as well.

The PVV is also not really conservative. They couple an anti immigration policy with left economic policies like keeping the retirement age at 65.
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-12-08 21:48:38
December 08 2015 21:47 GMT
#6919
On December 09 2015 04:23 Nyxisto wrote:
I don't know usually you claim that the liberal elite is not listening at all and ignoring the average guy, you have to pick one. I actually find it really surprising how few European mainstream parties are jumping on the scare bandwagon. Eastern European governments seem to try to make up for all of them though.



None of the traditional parties will ever jump the scare bandwagon because the scare bandwagon is a thread to the European union and the globalization process itself. They have to keep this dream alive that they are working towards.
TMG26
Profile Joined July 2012
Portugal2017 Posts
December 09 2015 03:14 GMT
#6920
Socialism simply does not work with open borders. Look at Sweden, it was a paridise untill it got flooded.

That Flood will always happen in a well off socialist country with open borders.
Supporter of the situational Blink Dagger on Storm.
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