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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 221

Forum Index > General Forum
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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
rezoacken
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada2719 Posts
July 18 2015 17:52 GMT
#4401
Ireland is a south country ?
Either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22102 Posts
July 18 2015 17:55 GMT
#4402
On July 19 2015 02:52 rezoacken wrote:
Ireland is a south country ?

It is when your manipulating data to show the desired result :p
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11752 Posts
July 18 2015 17:59 GMT
#4403
Well, Ireland is south of some things.
Taf the Ghost
Profile Joined December 2010
United States11751 Posts
July 18 2015 18:06 GMT
#4404
In Ancient China, Ireland would be a Southern country. (They used south-facing compasses)
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-18 18:12:52
July 18 2015 18:08 GMT
#4405
On July 19 2015 02:19 RvB wrote:
Since qhen is the north the same as Germany? The Netherlands went trough a pretty big recession.


Because the Netherlands wasn't bright enough to realize that you talk the talk, but you don't actually walk the walk.

Netherlands imposed austerity on itself and hurt it's economy.

Germany under Schreuder/SPD reformed during the economic upswing when Die Grünen was part of the coalition. So Merkel did no reforms or austerity in Germany. They just forced the bad medicine down the throats of others. Germany slowly grew throughout the recession while the Dutch policy deepened the recession and slowed the recovery.

Out of all the countries, the Netherlands actually was one of the last to recover when usually, because the economy is very interconnected and service-depended, they ought to be among the first to get hit and the first to recover.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
July 18 2015 18:17 GMT
#4406
just to put this as short, as simple, as precise as I can WhiteDog, just a last time. I'll be off after that because frankly I'm getting tired of this myself but I can be quite... incomprehensible at times so I know that's an issue...

Anyways:

You say
  • look at the Data, it shows that from 2002 up to 2009 it's stable for southern europe. (I AGREE)
  • It should stay stable for southern europe until something happens (I AGREE)
  • It isn't stable for southern europe but ratings decreased. That is because
    On July 19 2015 00:20 WhiteDog wrote: decisions national government and european government made since 2007 and 2009 were in accordance with the north desire

that statement has no backing whatsoever and is just your personal opinion. Clearly something happened in 2007 and 2009 and it's obviously related to the crisis but what exactly it is isn't clear. I'd say going out of your way to only mention that one point as the sole reason is pretty hilarious all in itself but that's besides the point.

So to see if your explanation is true I went ahead and took your explanation for one specific graph (that of south europe) and tried to apply it to the other ones and see if what you say should happen does happen.

So what do we know about northern europe:
  • The graphs went up from 2002 up to 2007. That's a big plus, it should keep going up until something happens
  • Most of northern Europe wasn't hit as hard as southern Europe. You even rightfully said that Germany has had a really good time, as can be seen in the graph for national ratings as well. That's a plus. It should make the graph go up.
  • We assume your explanation is correct. We assume
    On July 19 2015 00:20 WhiteDog wrote: decisions national government and european government made since 2007 and 2009 were in accordance with the north desire
    is the case. That's a plus if we're talking about northern Europe. That should make the graph go up even more


so we look at the graph and expect it to go up even more than it was from 2002 up to 2007/2009 if your explanation is correct. Instead we find it going down for northern Europe. And you say that's irrelevant.

If you don't see a problem with your logic here I really can't help you. I'm not saying my explanation is what's happening. I just said your explanation is not shown in the graph and gave mine as an example off the top of my head. In fact I'd say it's most likely that there is no one single reason for why the graphs look the way they do and instead a multitude of reasons. But saying it is
On July 19 2015 00:20 WhiteDog wrote: decisions national government and european government made since 2007 and 2009 were in accordance with the north desire
to the point of it being the only thing worth a mention by you is just not what I'm seeing.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6265 Posts
July 18 2015 19:20 GMT
#4407
On July 19 2015 02:35 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 19 2015 02:19 RvB wrote:
On July 19 2015 02:02 WhiteDog wrote:
And like I said, the north wasn't hit as hard as the south so it's only natural that the results aren't as drastic when we've had it quite good the last couple years.

Has the north been hit at all ? Increase in unemployment ? recession ? None of that since 2009. It's actually the opposite.

[image loading]


If your explanation was somehow true (that it's the economy that dictate the satisfaction) the satisfaction should have gone up (huge decrease in unemployment for the last ten years). So why do you bother me ?

Since qhen is the north the same as Germany? The Netherlands went trough a pretty big recession.

The rise of populist/ anti european parties is also a trend pretty mich everywhere. I.e. PVV, UKIP, AfD.

AfF is very far from UKIP, Syriza of the FN. And the results are ponderated by the population.

They're all anti euro/ EU though except for Syriza now I guess but they started anti euro.

The rise of anti european parties in all southern countries can be another proof of my point, I don't even need the graph.


All I'm saying is that the rise of anti european parties is not just something that's happening in southern countries.
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
July 18 2015 19:29 GMT
#4408
If there was actually a large coalition that believed in the IMF press release they could bailout Greece without the pesky Germans. Their lack of any substantive plans to that end reveal that they also do not trust Greece and do not wish to risk the taxes of their citizens any more than the Germans.
Freeeeeeedom
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-18 19:37:55
July 18 2015 19:37 GMT
#4409
Since Germany is sabotaging this process, when debt finally does get the 'haircut', they should start off with wiping out 100% of the German debts. Why should other creditors bleed for Germany's greed?
lord_nibbler
Profile Joined March 2004
Germany591 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-18 19:53:49
July 18 2015 19:52 GMT
#4410
Then Germany just does not agree to it and keeps 100% of the Greek loans in the books. And if Greeks continue to bother, Germany demands them all back in full ... in a week!
You want a pissing contest? The creditor always has the upper hand, because capitalism fuck yea!
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
July 18 2015 20:02 GMT
#4411
Capitalism doesn't work like that. Nothing works like that. Except organised crime.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
July 18 2015 20:02 GMT
#4412
Now if Greece said they'd be paying back german loans first and Merkel would be against that she'd really get lynched on the streets in germany.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Alcathous
Profile Joined December 2014
Netherlands219 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-18 20:22:37
July 18 2015 20:09 GMT
#4413
Then maybe that's what Greece should offer Germany to drive even more of a wig between Germany and the creditors with a more realistic outlook. Let's see what happens.

IMF(read:the US) is really mad that Germany's greed is going to cost the creditors they represent a lot of money.
A lot of people raised brows at eurogroup trying to seize income-generating assets of Greece. Why are eurogroup creditors privileged?

Given the damage Germany is doing here, haven't they at least lost part of their moral claim to the Greek debt? Of course it is not going to work that way, but considering Greece is never going to pay back the debts, a lack of restructuring is just going to waste a lot of creditor's money, and Germany is to blame.


This is kind of like a Volunteer's dilemma and Germany is refusing to play ball. Germany wants to be the free rider. Others have to accept debt restructuring, but not Germany, putting every creditor at risk of getting naught.
ACrow
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany6583 Posts
July 18 2015 20:10 GMT
#4414
On July 19 2015 05:02 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Capitalism doesn't work like that. Nothing works like that. Except organised crime.

I always thought capitalism was socially accepted organized crime.
Get off my lawn, young punks
InVerno
Profile Joined May 2011
258 Posts
July 18 2015 21:00 GMT
#4415
On July 19 2015 02:02 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
And like I said, the north wasn't hit as hard as the south so it's only natural that the results aren't as drastic when we've had it quite good the last couple years.

Has the north been hit at all ? Increase in unemployment ? recession ? None of that since 2009. It's actually the opposite.

[image loading]


If your explanation was somehow true (that it's the economy that dictate the satisfaction) the satisfaction should have gone up (huge decrease in unemployment for the last ten years). So why do you bother me ?


Your graph can be better
[image loading]
source for graph nazis: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2015/07/17-greece-and-europe
I'm late to explain why I didn't gave any context in the last graph i putted, but I did like a lot all the answers I got lol.
lastpuritan
Profile Joined December 2014
United States540 Posts
July 18 2015 22:02 GMT
#4416
On July 19 2015 05:10 ACrow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 19 2015 05:02 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Capitalism doesn't work like that. Nothing works like that. Except organised crime.

I always thought capitalism was socially accepted organized crime.


civilization itself a crime against nature they say.
Noizhende
Profile Joined January 2012
Austria328 Posts
July 18 2015 23:11 GMT
#4417
On July 19 2015 06:00 InVerno wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 19 2015 02:02 WhiteDog wrote:
And like I said, the north wasn't hit as hard as the south so it's only natural that the results aren't as drastic when we've had it quite good the last couple years.

Has the north been hit at all ? Increase in unemployment ? recession ? None of that since 2009. It's actually the opposite.

[image loading]


If your explanation was somehow true (that it's the economy that dictate the satisfaction) the satisfaction should have gone up (huge decrease in unemployment for the last ten years). So why do you bother me ?


Your graph can be better
[image loading]
source for graph nazis: http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2015/07/17-greece-and-europe
I'm late to explain why I didn't gave any context in the last graph i putted, but I did like a lot all the answers I got lol.


the problem with unemployment graphs is that they don't show the increasing number of people "working poor". So basically poverty can increase at the same time unemployment falls, then you have an increasing number of unhappy people anyway.
Die neuen Tempel haben schon Risse - künftige Ruinen - einst wächst Gras auch über diese Stadt - über ihre letzte Schicht
Skilledblob
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany3392 Posts
July 18 2015 23:46 GMT
#4418
german government does a lot of shady stuff so that they can publish those low unemployment numbers.
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2394 Posts
July 19 2015 01:27 GMT
#4419
So not only was Varoufakis a total disaster as minister and negotiator for Greece, now he's trying to ride his popularity with 'tell-all' interviews and predictions of disaster. Wouldn't shutting the f' up be the best course of action for Greece, given that it is still dependent on negotiations with the creditors and on popular support for the government? Am I wrong to think this guy is pretty extreme on the narcissism spectrum?
lord_nibbler
Profile Joined March 2004
Germany591 Posts
July 19 2015 01:55 GMT
#4420
On July 19 2015 05:02 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 19 2015 04:52 lord_nibbler wrote:
On July 19 2015 04:37 Alcathous wrote:
Since Germany is sabotaging this process, when debt finally does get the 'haircut', they should start off with wiping out 100% of the German debts. Why should other creditors bleed for Germany's greed?

Then Germany just does not agree to it and keeps 100% of the Greek loans in the books. And if Greeks continue to bother, Germany demands them all back in full ... in a week!
You want a pissing contest? The creditor always has the upper hand, because capitalism fuck yea!

Capitalism doesn't work like that. Nothing works like that. Except organised crime.

I see you have not met Paul Singer (2) (3). Capitalism, fuck yea!
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