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On July 19 2015 22:55 Hondelul wrote: Can someone point me to the part were he was found guilty by a court, can't find it in that link? Like your "certain italian politician".
I never talked about any italian politician. Nice try though. Sad to see that some people are so quickly to dismiss facts and use two different weight measures when it comes to corruption.
Well after two edits there stands something else in your post, yes. I thought you talk about Berlusconi. What are my two measures? Court and court?
Shauble is Jesus on earth, a little angel who never did any wrong. We should all respect him and listen to what he says because, as stated, he is perfect.
edit: You picked Berlusconi because you read that I'm from Italy. If i had Spain instead you would have picked a Spanish politician, if I was a Greek you would have picked a Greek politician and so on. inb4 Spain and Greece don't have corrupt politicians because courts never found them guilty.
On July 19 2015 22:55 Hondelul wrote: Can someone point me to the part were he was found guilty by a court, can't find it in that link? Like your "certain italian politician".
I never talked about any italian politician. Nice try though. Sad to see that some people are so quickly to dismiss facts and use two different weight measures when it comes to corruption.
On July 19 2015 21:51 Noizhende wrote: don't worry, evil_sheep, the u-turn is merkel's political go to maneuver. she's made pragmatism into a synonym to opportunism, and the people love her for it. :D
also i can't understand why anyone would trust a man who's taken a bribe from arms lobbyists in the past with the position of german finance minister.
Was linked before. If you want to know peoples opinions you should search back a bit.
ok, can't be said enough though, because people still seem to trust anything the cdu says/does
Oh please .... In Germany everybody knows not to trust the word of a politician. "Why would I care about the things I said yesterday?" That´s a famous saying by Konrad Adenauer. The first chancellor of today´s Germany. CDU by the way. Same as Merkel. That´s why Germans should never listen to promises prior to elections. Yet many do
Well but many germans (over 50% iirc) still like this guy, or am I wrong? They are probably the same people that crucified half of a continent because of "corruption".
Just pointing out some hypocrisy...
Hypocisy would be to assume that corruption in Germany is the same as in Italy. We certainly have some idiots in politics here, but come on, you had Mr. Bungabunga?
And btw.: I despise Schäuble for that CDU-Spendenskadal, yet I have some sympathies for him since the EU crisis.
On July 19 2015 22:55 Hondelul wrote: Can someone point me to the part were he was found guilty by a court, can't find it in that link? Like your "certain italian politician".
I never talked about any italian politician. Nice try though. Sad to see that some people are so quickly to dismiss facts and use two different weight measures when it comes to corruption.
On July 19 2015 22:54 Elizar wrote:
On July 19 2015 22:12 Noizhende wrote:
On July 19 2015 22:10 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 19 2015 21:51 Noizhende wrote: don't worry, evil_sheep, the u-turn is merkel's political go to maneuver. she's made pragmatism into a synonym to opportunism, and the people love her for it. :D
also i can't understand why anyone would trust a man who's taken a bribe from arms lobbyists in the past with the position of german finance minister.
Was linked before. If you want to know peoples opinions you should search back a bit.
ok, can't be said enough though, because people still seem to trust anything the cdu says/does
Oh please .... In Germany everybody knows not to trust the word of a politician. "Why would I care about the things I said yesterday?" That´s a famous saying by Konrad Adenauer. The first chancellor of today´s Germany. CDU by the way. Same as Merkel. That´s why Germans should never listen to promises prior to elections. Yet many do
Well but many germans (over 50% iirc) still like this guy, or am I wrong? They are probably the same people that crucified half of a continent because of "corruption".
Just pointing out some hypocrisy...
Hypocisy would be to assume that corruption in Germany is the same as in Italy. We certainly have some idiots in politics here, but come on, you had Mr. Bungabunga?
And btw.: I despise Schäuble for that CDU-Spendenskadal, yet I have some sympathies for him since the EU crisis.
No, hypocrisy is going full throttle with your medias on a crusade against corrupt foreign politicians, but not do the same when the corrupt politician is from your country.
On July 19 2015 23:13 BlitzerSC wrote: Shauble is Jesus on earth, a little angel who never did any wrong. We should all respect him and listen to what he says because, as stated, he is perfect.
edit: You picked Berlusconi because you read that I'm from Italy. If i had Spain instead you would have picked a Spanish politician, if I was a Greek you would have picked a Greek politician and so on. inb4 Spain and Greece don't have corrupt politicians because courts never found them guilty.
If you assume that any country on earth is totally free from corruption, then name some. And who said sth. about Schäuble being perfect? Please quote someone besides yourself.
On July 19 2015 23:16 BlitzerSC wrote: Yeah, keep negating the obvious. I heard that if you keep your eyes closed, nothing bad will ever happen. How is it going for you?
On July 19 2015 22:55 Hondelul wrote: Can someone point me to the part were he was found guilty by a court, can't find it in that link? Like your "certain italian politician".
I never talked about any italian politician. Nice try though. Sad to see that some people are so quickly to dismiss facts and use two different weight measures when it comes to corruption.
On July 19 2015 22:54 Elizar wrote:
On July 19 2015 22:12 Noizhende wrote:
On July 19 2015 22:10 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 19 2015 21:51 Noizhende wrote: don't worry, evil_sheep, the u-turn is merkel's political go to maneuver. she's made pragmatism into a synonym to opportunism, and the people love her for it. :D
also i can't understand why anyone would trust a man who's taken a bribe from arms lobbyists in the past with the position of german finance minister.
Was linked before. If you want to know peoples opinions you should search back a bit.
ok, can't be said enough though, because people still seem to trust anything the cdu says/does
Oh please .... In Germany everybody knows not to trust the word of a politician. "Why would I care about the things I said yesterday?" That´s a famous saying by Konrad Adenauer. The first chancellor of today´s Germany. CDU by the way. Same as Merkel. That´s why Germans should never listen to promises prior to elections. Yet many do
Well but many germans (over 50% iirc) still like this guy, or am I wrong? They are probably the same people that crucified half of a continent because of "corruption".
Just pointing out some hypocrisy...
Hypocisy would be to assume that corruption in Germany is the same as in Italy. We certainly have some idiots in politics here, but come on, you had Mr. Bungabunga?
And btw.: I despise Schäuble for that CDU-Spendenskadal, yet I have some sympathies for him since the EU crisis.
No, hypocrisy is going full throttle with your medias on a crusade against corrupt foreign politicians, but not do the same when the corrupt politician is from your country.
Dear god, our media goes full throttle? We don´t not picture people as nazis here. We don´t compare fellow Europeans to terorrists, twice. If you´re talking about the BILD-newspaper: Surprise, thats a newspaper for idiots with too many readers.
"10 January Wolfgang Schäuble admitted that back in 1994, he had accepted a DM 100,000 cash donation handed over from Karlheinz Schreiber.[23][24] However, his account of the exact circumstances was rejected by then CDU tresurer Brigitte Baumeister.[19][25]" from the wikipedia article.
i think germans are mostly voting for cdu because they are scared of change and think spd and greens are even less competent (which is probably true). elections in germany are a bit of a farce right know anyway, because you can only choose the colour of the same shit you get basically unless you vote for die linke fully aware that they are a bunch of former sed members, which wouldn't give me a particularly nice gut feeling either.
On July 19 2015 23:27 Noizhende wrote: i think germans are mostly voting for cdu because they are scared of change and think spd and greens are even less competent (which is probably true). elections in germany are a bit of a farce right know anyway, because you can only choose the colour of the same shit you get basically unless you vote for die linke fully aware that they are a bunch of former sed members, which wouldn't give me a particularly nice gut feeling either.
edit: sry for doublepost
That pretty much sums up my feelings about german politics.
On July 19 2015 23:13 BlitzerSC wrote: Shauble is Jesus on earth, a little angel who never did any wrong. We should all respect him and listen to what he says because, as stated, he is perfect.
edit: You picked Berlusconi because you read that I'm from Italy. If i had Spain instead you would have picked a Spanish politician, if I was a Greek you would have picked a Greek politician and so on. inb4 Spain and Greece don't have corrupt politicians because courts never found them guilty.
While we are on the subject of corruption, I would like to point out that there are corrupt politicians everywhere. Go through the last french governments, it's incredibly hard to find someone without a court sentence.
Guéant has been the target of two investigative judge cases, including one where Sarkozy’s 2007 campaign allegedly received donations from the government of the Libya, under the reign of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.
On July 19 2015 23:27 Noizhende wrote: i think germans are mostly voting for cdu because they are scared of change and think spd and greens are even less competent (which is probably true). elections in germany are a bit of a farce right know anyway, because you can only choose the colour of the same shit you get basically unless you vote for die linke fully aware that they are a bunch of former sed members, which wouldn't give me a particularly nice gut feeling either.
edit: sry for doublepost
kind of. We used to have the FDP but they ended up being a joke and pretty much getting kicked out of politics for being clientelistic idiots. I did like them before shit hit the fan... stupid me... Die Linke is a no-go for me. I might actually vote greens next time around because if it's between SPD and CDU I'll stick to CDU after all... which all in itself just makes me less likely to vote Greens because that'd help SPD.
On July 19 2015 23:27 Noizhende wrote: i think germans are mostly voting for cdu because they are scared of change and think spd and greens are even less competent (which is probably true). elections in germany are a bit of a farce right know anyway, because you can only choose the colour of the same shit you get basically unless you vote for die linke fully aware that they are a bunch of former sed members, which wouldn't give me a particularly nice gut feeling either.
edit: sry for doublepost
yup all those god damn SED members like Lafontaine.
sadly this is just in german, but it's probably most relevant for the germans anyway: (he explains why germany has to increase wages drastically, or should have increased them in the years since the euro implementation)
And like I said, the north wasn't hit as hard as the south so it's only natural that the results aren't as drastic when we've had it quite good the last couple years.
Has the north been hit at all ? Increase in unemployment ? recession ? None of that since 2009. It's actually the opposite.
If your explanation was somehow true (that it's the economy that dictate the satisfaction) the satisfaction should have gone up (huge decrease in unemployment for the last ten years). So why do you bother me ?
the problem with unemployment graphs is that they don't show the increasing number of people "working poor". So basically poverty can increase at the same time unemployment falls, then you have an increasing number of unhappy people anyway.
You think there are more working poor in germany than in countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy ?
On July 20 2015 05:20 WhiteDog wrote: You think there are more working poor in germany than in countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy ?
Do you have statistics? I am interested. Because Germany has more people in general, a lower unemployment rate and did not have a minimum wage until recently, I would actually expect more German workers in very low income jobs than in these three countries...
Also, there is the aspect of home ownership versus rent, that influences the financial position of a low income citizen greatly.
On July 20 2015 05:20 WhiteDog wrote: You think there are more working poor in germany than in countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy ?
Do you have statistics? I am interested. Because Germany has more people in general, a lower unemployment rate and did not have a minimum wage until recently, I would actually expect more German workers in very low income jobs than in these three countries...
Also, there is the aspect of home ownership versus rent, that influences the financial position of a low income citizen greatly.
You can't be serious. The average wage in Portugal is 911 euros. 10% of workers in Portugal earn minimum wage (500 Euros). How many people in Germany earn that? It's also not like prices are that much higher in Germany - cars are cheaper, VAT is lower, food in supermarkets is comparable, housing in most places I've seen is lower or comparable to Lisbon.
On July 19 2015 20:43 Alcathous wrote: When people(Varoufakis, others) talk about 'models' they mean simulations run on supercomputers. I am sure the eurogroup and the IMF sure them, as well as major banks and probably most governments including Greece.
They don't mean a standard text on introductory macroeconomics.
The stuff that leaks out is that in not a single model, Greek economy does well. And that includes the IMF computer models that were very wrong the last 5 years in predicting significant growth when all reality did was decline. So even in a model that overestimates growth/the positive effect of austerity, the current plan turns out to be bad.
Also, mainstream economic theory doesn't say austerity helps an economy in crisis recover. The whole idea is fringy in economics, mainstream only in politics as it resonates with the voter because unlike economics, in politics there's the question of guilt and that has to be spinned the right way and solutions reflect who is guilty.
What I linked to is probably not the best explainer but just what was at my fingertips. Exactly as you say, no matter which models you use there is no positive outcome for Greece under the current assumptions. What I mentioned before is that standard economic analyses indicate that austerity has further depressed the economy in Greece, and therefore relenting on it would permit the economy to recover...and give Greece eventually the best chance to pay back its debts. From a purely selfish perspective, Germany's focus on austerity has been self-defeating and expensive.
On July 19 2015 11:03 Evil_Sheep wrote: Today Yanis Varoufakis was quoted as saying that the 3rd bailout programme is doomed to fail. I disagree; in fact I feel that for the first time during this crisis, there seems to be hope for success. According to the analysis of economists, much of the damage to Greece's economy since the bailouts has been due to the austerity policy and not their fecklessness. Greece's economy, already in crisis, simply could not handle the additional strangulation of an unending 4% budget surplus while maintaining a fixed exchange rate that is, for their economy, far too overvalued. If this is true, which there is abundant evidence and models to suggest, then ending the austerity policy should allow Greece's economy to recover and return to growth. There is no doubt that Greece, while implementing some structural reforms, had not gone far enough. Although it has been far from the ideal way to do so, Germany's appropriation of Greece's sovereignty in the recent agreement now permits them to push through every structural reform Greece needs, to their heart's content. In my opinion, the combination of an end to austerity and German-led massive structural reforms would allow the Greek economy to recover and end this crisis.
What models are you talking about? I hope aren't the same ones http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/assistance_eu_ms/greek_loan_facility/pdf/presentation_4th_review_2nd_programme_brussels_en.pdf These report said Greece was near to have a primary surplus of 0.8% at the end 2015, completely forgetting the recapitalization of banks, which if counted would lead to an astonishing -10.6% ironically the same governement balance of 2009. I don't like to play the little economist, still, I wonder which models can be reliable when official EU ones are plain propaganda and which ones are you referring to.
I'm talking about standard macroeconomic models and theories. This would be a good explanation of the kind of textbook economics at work (a bit hard to understand for those without an economics background.) This post I linked to earlier graphically illustrates the correlation between austerity and growth in the eurozone during the crisis. The conclusion, consistent with standard macroeconomic theories, is that reducing austerity would increase output and allow the Greek economy the chance to recover.
The problem is that an euro without austerity doesn't exist, even Shauble said it between the lines several times, and even if I don't trust his knowledge like I would trust Krugman or other good economists that you may link, I trust him as a decision maker in the meaning of that will never happen.
This is exactly the problem. I believe him too and it is still incredibly hard to believe that Germany will ever retreat from this position. Unfortunately the only alternative is chaos and Grexit. There is no notable economist in the world, not in the German finance ministry or Greek, the IMF or America, that believes the 3rd bailout as currently envisioned, one without massive debt relief and a big pullback in austerity, can succeed. So the question is if the Merkel government will do anything about this.
I noticed today that Merkel said Greece needs "debt relief," completing the cycle of European leaders to make this declaration in the past couple weeks. Maybe it's just a mistranslation into English but as has been discussed here, this has been a word Merkel has been reluctant to use given it is normally associated with writeoffs. However she went on to reiterate once again that no writeoffs would be permitted, only what's normally been considered debt restructuring/rescheduling. So, everyone agrees debt relief is required, and this is not a huge surprise, the main question really is what scale of debt relief will occur. Anything short of what the IMF has been calling for just won't cut it. The classic Merkel fudge, granting some debt relief but not going far enough while kicking the can down the road further...well we're almost at the point now where there's no more road. If Merkel does not agree to make Greece's debt sustainable, then the IMF won't sign up to the program, meaning Merkel will have to commit even more of Germany's money to a lost cause. That, at least, will give her pause for thought.
The real problem with unemployment graphs is that the rate of unemployment is only "People currently searching for work and are unemployed". It completely leaves out everyone not looking for work, or not in the workforce at all, or only working part-time (so not enough to live off of), etc.
It completely misleads you into thinking almost everyone participates in the workforce and can live off of it, which is just flat out untrue.
On July 20 2015 05:20 WhiteDog wrote: You think there are more working poor in germany than in countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy ?
Do you have statistics? I am interested. Because Germany has more people in general, a lower unemployment rate and did not have a minimum wage until recently, I would actually expect more German workers in very low income jobs than in these three countries...
Also, there is the aspect of home ownership versus rent, that influences the financial position of a low income citizen greatly.
You can't be serious. The average wage in Portugal is 911 euros. 10% of workers in Portugal earn minimum wage (500 Euros). How many people in Germany earn that? It's also not like prices are that much higher in Germany - cars are cheaper, VAT is lower, food in supermarkets is comparable, housing in most places I've seen is lower or comparable to Lisbon.
I had a look around Eurostat's website:
In-work at-risk-of-poverty rate 2013 The share of persons who are at work and have an equivalised disposable income below the risk-of-poverty threshold, which is set at 60 % of the national median equivalised disposable income (after social transfers).
Oh, and while we are at it: People at risk of poverty after social transfers 2013 The persons with an equivalised disposable income below the risk-of-poverty threshold, which is set at 60 % of the national median equivalised disposable income (after social transfers). Germany 12.8m Italy 11.6m Spain 9.4m Portugal 1.9m
So as I expected, Germany 'beats' these three countries in 'working poor' and in overall 'poor'.
EPT
![[image loading]](http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/germany-unemployment-rate.png?s=gruepr&d1=20050101&d2=20151231)
![[image loading]](http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Blogs/Ben-Bernanke/2015/Euro_Fig2.PNG?la=en)
