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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On July 16 2015 02:01 c0ldfusion wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 01:57 Godwrath wrote:On July 15 2015 23:04 mahrgell wrote:
Why would Spain or the Baltics try to reform, if they could just follow the Greek route, refuse everything, rampage through all negotiations, break every agreement they had, and just try to continue their old course until they finally get their debt cut... Spain's problems are mostly rooted within the politician class, not your average taxpayer. The one EU supports that class by fear instigation and making an example with Greece. How are things in Spain right now? How do the people feel about Greece's outcome? Does it lend support to Podemos? The whole bargain process with Greece has affected Podemos from the beginning of Syriza's ruling (even tho they boosted their numbers when it was elected), not only the latest news on Greece. They started this year ranking on general elections polls 28.2 points, while PSOE was the second with 23,5 and PP with a 19.2
On July this has changed, PP now leads with a 23, PSOE 22.5 and Podemos with a 21.5. They are much closer, and as the general elections come, and uncertainty continues on Greece and Syriza's political ability gets humiliated over and over by the EU, numbers for Podemos will continue to go down, even tho a 65% of the population thinks that it would be good that neither PSOE or PP continued to rule.
Oh, and if i were you, i wouldn't try to read any Spanish newspapers or tv news. They rely heavily on subsidies to survive, being complete puppets of the political parties. And i can tell this because people in my close circle work in there and the problems they have when they want to present some news about some political party are amazing. For those who need more than what they would find anecdotical,there are clear examples like how JJ ramirez was fired after the Barcenas scandal.
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On July 16 2015 01:25 Nyxisto wrote:
yeah he took 100k cash bribe from a Canadian arms dealer 15 years ago or so and had to resign from all positions, he was actually supposed to run for chancellor. look up the "CDU-Spendenaffäre"
Just like Tusk and Djisselbloem said : it's about trust. I have a difficult time trusting a guy who accepted money from an arm dealer. When the trust is broken, it's really hard to patch it back.
On July 16 2015 02:33 cLutZ wrote:I find the IMF report to be just a bit incredible: Show nested quote +Debt would peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years. This
contrasts with earlier projections that the peak in debt—at 177 percent of GDP in
2014—is already behind us.
b. By 2022, debt is now projected to be at 170 percent of GDP, compared to an
estimate of 142 percent of GDP projected in our published DSA.
c. Gross financing needs would rise to levels well above what they were at the last
review (and above the 15 percent of GDP threshold deemed safe) and continue
rising in the long term. I don't understand how they think Greece's Debt/GDP will peak at 200%, but be back down to 170% by 2022, that plus the 3.5% primary surplus assumption, are just out of this world. If what they say is true, is true, they could cut the Germans out of the loop, cover Greece's short-term debts, slap a long-term maturity onto the IMF-funded bailout and ride their projections int long term prosperity.
I presume that the IMF predict growth somewhere for Greece (in 2017-2018 most likely) and thus that the debt GDP ratio will go down (mathematically).
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OK thanks. I guess this somewhat supports the view that (policy) contagion risk is contained.
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On July 16 2015 02:42 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 01:25 Nyxisto wrote:
yeah he took 100k cash bribe from a Canadian arms dealer 15 years ago or so and had to resign from all positions, he was actually supposed to run for chancellor. look up the "CDU-Spendenaffäre" Just like Tusk and Djisselbloem said : it's about trust. I have a difficult time trusting a guy who accepted money from an arm dealer. When the trust is broken, it's really hard to patch it back. Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 02:33 cLutZ wrote:I find the IMF report to be just a bit incredible: Debt would peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years. This
contrasts with earlier projections that the peak in debt—at 177 percent of GDP in
2014—is already behind us.
b. By 2022, debt is now projected to be at 170 percent of GDP, compared to an
estimate of 142 percent of GDP projected in our published DSA.
c. Gross financing needs would rise to levels well above what they were at the last
review (and above the 15 percent of GDP threshold deemed safe) and continue
rising in the long term. I don't understand how they think Greece's Debt/GDP will peak at 200%, but be back down to 170% by 2022, that plus the 3.5% primary surplus assumption, are just out of this world. If what they say is true, is true, they could cut the Germans out of the loop, cover Greece's short-term debts, slap a long-term maturity onto the IMF-funded bailout and ride their projections int long term prosperity. I presume that the IMF predict growth somewhere for Greece (in 2017-2018 most likely) and thus that the debt GDP ratio will go down (mathematically).
I figure that as well, but they also say the 3.5% primary surplus is not going to happen, and they are also gloomy about the prospect of Greece even with the cash infusion. I don't really understand how they can be so pess-optimistic. It seems like a series of rationalizations for them to not participate in the bailout, which they don't really want to participate in regardless of the terms the other creditors impose.
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On July 16 2015 02:42 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 01:25 Nyxisto wrote:
yeah he took 100k cash bribe from a Canadian arms dealer 15 years ago or so and had to resign from all positions, he was actually supposed to run for chancellor. look up the "CDU-Spendenaffäre" Just like Tusk and Djisselbloem said : it's about trust. I have a difficult time trusting a guy who accepted money from an arm dealer. When the trust is broken, it's really hard to patch it back. Not for conservative politicians. 
You see it for example in the US as well, the things certain people can get away with because they can project an image and are in the 'right' party even against hard evidence, is amazing. Like 4-times husbands standing for 'the sanctity of marriage' and 'traditional values' and so on.
In a survey some years ago Schäuble even polled highest in the 'best with money issues' category among current German politicians. I could not believe my eyes. But I made my peace with the German general public, they are a bit limited and they will always manage to underwhelm my expectation...
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Yanis is at it again.
Former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told parliament on Wednesday Greece's rescue deal was like the Versailles treaty which forced crushing reparations on Germany after World War One and led to the rise of Adolf Hitler.
source
Still no word yet on the vote but Tsipras is certainly facing opposition.
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On July 16 2015 02:42 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 01:25 Nyxisto wrote:
yeah he took 100k cash bribe from a Canadian arms dealer 15 years ago or so and had to resign from all positions, he was actually supposed to run for chancellor. look up the "CDU-Spendenaffäre" Just like Tusk and Djisselbloem said : it's about trust. I have a difficult time trusting a guy who accepted money from an arm dealer. When the trust is broken, it's really hard to patch it back. Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 02:33 cLutZ wrote:I find the IMF report to be just a bit incredible: Debt would peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years. This
contrasts with earlier projections that the peak in debt—at 177 percent of GDP in
2014—is already behind us.
b. By 2022, debt is now projected to be at 170 percent of GDP, compared to an
estimate of 142 percent of GDP projected in our published DSA.
c. Gross financing needs would rise to levels well above what they were at the last
review (and above the 15 percent of GDP threshold deemed safe) and continue
rising in the long term. I don't understand how they think Greece's Debt/GDP will peak at 200%, but be back down to 170% by 2022, that plus the 3.5% primary surplus assumption, are just out of this world. If what they say is true, is true, they could cut the Germans out of the loop, cover Greece's short-term debts, slap a long-term maturity onto the IMF-funded bailout and ride their projections int long term prosperity. I presume that the IMF predict growth somewhere for Greece (in 2017-2018 most likely) and thus that the debt GDP ratio will go down (mathematically).
I did the math, and I guess they are assuming Greece will return to a 3.5% growth immediately after the debt hits 200% of GDP, not as unrealistic as I thought, but still seems unrealistic given the growth rates in Europe as a whole.
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On July 16 2015 03:07 c0ldfusion wrote:Yanis is at it again. Show nested quote +Former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told parliament on Wednesday Greece's rescue deal was like the Versailles treaty which forced crushing reparations on Germany after World War One and led to the rise of Adolf Hitler. sourceStill no word yet on the vote but Tsipras is certainly facing opposition.
I found another bit of that much more insane
He describes the requirement to implement the initial set of reforms before any financing as the equivalent of "fiscal waterboarding"
Its amazing how he totally ignored the fact that he was responsible for eroding every last bit of trust and thus forcing the Eurozone to demand reforms before finances.
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On July 16 2015 03:20 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 03:07 c0ldfusion wrote:Yanis is at it again. Former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told parliament on Wednesday Greece's rescue deal was like the Versailles treaty which forced crushing reparations on Germany after World War One and led to the rise of Adolf Hitler. sourceStill no word yet on the vote but Tsipras is certainly facing opposition. I found another bit of that much more insane Show nested quote +He describes the requirement to implement the initial set of reforms before any financing as the equivalent of "fiscal waterboarding" Its amazing how he totally ignored the fact that he was responsible for eroding every last bit of trust and thus forcing the Eurozone to demand reforms before finances.
I thought the financing stopped half a year before he took office.
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On July 16 2015 01:25 Nyxisto wrote:
yeah he took 100k cash bribe from a Canadian arms dealer 15 years ago or so and had to resign from all positions, he was actually supposed to run for chancellor. look up the "CDU-Spendenaffäre"
One should mention that the money was for the party and not for Schäuble himself. Donations are allowed, of course, but the party has a long track record of keeping donors anonymous, which is - for obvious reasons- not permitted. The main culprit was Kohl himself, who organized the whole system.
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On July 16 2015 03:30 sneirac wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 03:20 Gorsameth wrote:On July 16 2015 03:07 c0ldfusion wrote:Yanis is at it again. Former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told parliament on Wednesday Greece's rescue deal was like the Versailles treaty which forced crushing reparations on Germany after World War One and led to the rise of Adolf Hitler. sourceStill no word yet on the vote but Tsipras is certainly facing opposition. I found another bit of that much more insane He describes the requirement to implement the initial set of reforms before any financing as the equivalent of "fiscal waterboarding" Its amazing how he totally ignored the fact that he was responsible for eroding every last bit of trust and thus forcing the Eurozone to demand reforms before finances. I thought the financing stopped half a year before he took office.
Then you thought wrong.
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Supposedly it started when a pro and anti austerity protest got near eachother.
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On July 16 2015 03:02 lord_nibbler wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 02:42 WhiteDog wrote:On July 16 2015 01:25 Nyxisto wrote:
yeah he took 100k cash bribe from a Canadian arms dealer 15 years ago or so and had to resign from all positions, he was actually supposed to run for chancellor. look up the "CDU-Spendenaffäre" Just like Tusk and Djisselbloem said : it's about trust. I have a difficult time trusting a guy who accepted money from an arm dealer. When the trust is broken, it's really hard to patch it back. Not for conservative politicians. You see it for example in the US as well, the things certain people can get away with because they can project an image and are in the 'right' party even against hard evidence, is amazing. Like 4-times husbands standing for 'the sanctity of marriage' and 'traditional values' and so on. In a survey some years ago Schäuble even polled highest in the 'best with money issues' category among current German politicians. I could not believe my eyes. But I made my peace with the German general public, they are a bit limited and they will always manage to underwhelm my expectation...
It's the same in France. Alain Juppé was guilty in an affair about false job in Paris cityhall, left to canada, and now he is one of the main protagonist of the next presidential election. People forget.
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On July 16 2015 03:35 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 03:30 sneirac wrote:On July 16 2015 03:20 Gorsameth wrote:On July 16 2015 03:07 c0ldfusion wrote:Yanis is at it again. Former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told parliament on Wednesday Greece's rescue deal was like the Versailles treaty which forced crushing reparations on Germany after World War One and led to the rise of Adolf Hitler. sourceStill no word yet on the vote but Tsipras is certainly facing opposition. I found another bit of that much more insane He describes the requirement to implement the initial set of reforms before any financing as the equivalent of "fiscal waterboarding" Its amazing how he totally ignored the fact that he was responsible for eroding every last bit of trust and thus forcing the Eurozone to demand reforms before finances. I thought the financing stopped half a year before he took office. Then you thought wrong.
Seriously I somehow was convinced that Greece has been denied payments from the 2012 agreement since summer 2014. Which things am I mixing up?
Edit: phrasing and:
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On July 16 2015 03:39 sneirac wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2015 03:35 Acrofales wrote:On July 16 2015 03:30 sneirac wrote:On July 16 2015 03:20 Gorsameth wrote:On July 16 2015 03:07 c0ldfusion wrote:Yanis is at it again. Former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis told parliament on Wednesday Greece's rescue deal was like the Versailles treaty which forced crushing reparations on Germany after World War One and led to the rise of Adolf Hitler. sourceStill no word yet on the vote but Tsipras is certainly facing opposition. I found another bit of that much more insane He describes the requirement to implement the initial set of reforms before any financing as the equivalent of "fiscal waterboarding" Its amazing how he totally ignored the fact that he was responsible for eroding every last bit of trust and thus forcing the Eurozone to demand reforms before finances. I thought the financing stopped half a year before he took office. Then you thought wrong. Seriously I somehow am convinced that Greece has been denied payments from the 2012 agreement since summer 2014. Which things am I mixing up?
You are right (in a way) - there haven't been any payout since last year summer. The financing programme was still running until June 30th when the Greek government had it expire, it's just that the payouts were coupled to conditions that have not been fulfilled, for example concerning privatization. Having no payouts doesn't mean the financing didn't have any impact, though, as it gave Draghi a legal basis to keep ELA credits to the Greek banks flowing, because he could argue that the financing was still in progress and thus the Greek banks were not in danger of going bankrupt. Without it, the ECB is basically forbidden to keep the de facto bankrupt banks running, it's already a big stretch for him to not completely pull the plug and demand ELA credits back. I guess we can be lucky (?) that Draghi kept the worst at bay.
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On July 16 2015 01:25 Nyxisto wrote:
yeah he took 100k cash bribe from a Canadian arms dealer 15 years ago or so and had to resign from all positions, he was actually supposed to run for chancellor. look up the "CDU-Spendenaffäre"
I have little sympathy for the CDU. However looked it up at wikpedia, and well, almost every detail you mention is (half-)wrong, or misses some important information.
-100k being DMark and not, as most people automatically assume today, EURO.
-He took the money in 1994 (more than 20 years ago). 15 years is the date when it was uncovered, not when it happened.
-He didnt take the money for himself, he handed it over to his party (as apparently was always intended), where it wasnt properly noted for taxation. It's worth noting that the people involved, including him, deny any personal responsibility and blame each other.
-Karl-Heinz Schreiber is a german as well as a canadian.
-This is somewhat disputable, but in which sense did he "have to resign", or did he just resign?
-Yes given his position in the CDU he was amongst the possible CDU chancellor candidates for 2002. But when the scandal was unconvered, it was almost 2,5 years until the next election. I dont think anybody really knew then who would be the CDU frontrunner for the 2002 election. It wasnt yesterday, but in my memory, the candidacy race was highly competitive, with Stoiber beating Merkel, both of which were important people even before the scandal. Saying Schäuble was "supposed to run for chancellor" isnt justified imho.
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I don't know in what way the details of this change the moral of the story. If you take 100k cash from an arms dealer and don't even declare it as a donation chances are that you are a very dirty politician. And yes, he resigned as chairman of the CDU and head of the parliamentary group at the time over growing pressure. How this never had a legal fallout is beyond me.
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Because bribery was legal in germany. Yes, LEGAL.
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On July 15 2015 22:54 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2015 22:45 Evil_Sheep wrote:
I dont think Germans, or Europeans, are so stupid to think, OK you've said 1000 times you can't and won't (meaningfully) restructure the debt, but you now you are saying it's OK to restructure the debt...but no problem. Oh and you were willing to break up the EU over this issue. But no big deal. And Merkel being overtaken by reality is politically savvy enough to teflon that off.
On July 15 2015 22:55 lord_nibbler wrote:Show nested quote +
And once the German people realize that Merkel has been lying to them this whole time... she will pay the price.
You are underestimating Merkel and her ability to never commit to anything (or magically backtrack on earlier positions).
If she can somehow back out of this gracefully, she really is Houdini. I really do hope, for the good of Europe, that you guys are correct. I can already see many Germans in this thread appear not to be aware of the details of the promises and commitments she's made, so that is a good sign for her now.
On July 15 2015 23:04 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2015 22:25 Evil_Sheep wrote:
Merkel's problem is she's promised German voters that the Greeks will pay back all their debts, every cent (as long as they remain in the euro.) The rules will be followed. She will ensure that a European always pays his debts...no matter the cost. She's said it a hundred times, a thousand times, until she's blue in the face, to the Greeks and the rest of Europe. She's staked her reputation on it. She's staked the entire European Union on it. But it's all a big lie. nope, she didn't.
"Germany, the largest contributor to Greek rescue funds, and a number of other eurozone countries have long resisted any talk of haircuts and debt relief." source
Merkel's argument has consistently been that debt forgiveness is illegal under EU rules and therefore impossible. Therefore Greek debts will never be forgiven and every cent now owed will be eventually (somehow) paid.
Also the IMF's position is very far from Syriza.
To be specific: on the key issue of debt restructuring, the IMF is now in agreement with Syriza's position. Actually I think the IMF has gone even further than Syriza. Syriza were just asking for debt rescheduling or forgiveness that would allow the economy to recover before paying back the loans. They never would have dared ask for a 30 year grace period, which is far greater than their bargaining position.
And this difference is easily explained, that from a pure economical pov of course the IMF is right. Nobody would argue about that. Problem is, that from a political pov it is not that easy. You have debt? You are a huge money drain, because of your bloated system? You ran your entire country into the dirt? Only solution is to run it in deeper! Then you get your debt cut! Would be a great message to all the other nations in Europe, those that reformed (painfully), and did not get such an easy way out.
Why would Spain or the Baltics try to reform, if they could just follow the Greek route, refuse everything, rampage through all negotiations, break every agreement they had, and just try to continue their old course until they finally get their debt cut...
I simply don't understand this argument at all, which seems to be very popular in Germany. Greece is suffering a depression worse than the Great Depression, it has 25% unemployment, the banks have literally run out of money, people are starving and committing suicide, it is on the brink of being kicked out of the EU and the eurozone and the economy would be liquidated. It's just been forced to sign an agreement at gunpoint that destroys its sovereignty, its economy, and humiliates it completely.
But many Germans, including apparently the German government, their main worry still seems to be that Greece hasn't suffered enough and that other countries might want to follow their example. What kind of madman would want to emulate Greece's path? You can see where the caricature of Merkel the dominatrix comes from. No amount of Greek suffering appears to be enough to satisfy the German government.
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EPT
