EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 208
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unsaeglich
260 Posts
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On July 15 2015 18:22 Evil_Sheep wrote: I'm not worried about her career. I used to think like everyone else: Merkel is a wise and fair leader. My illusions have been shattered. Her career has been a disaster, her decisions have been reckless and dangerous. 10 years means nothing. The reason I said that her career is over, is now either Greece and the EU burns which is a disaster for her, or the debt is restructured and Greece is saved, which is also a disaster for her. She can kick the can down the road some more but eventually one of those two things will happen. I have a very hard time imagining there is any other possibility for her but the destruction of her career. Also a close and important ally for her, the IMF, the ones she brought in to be credible and responsible: have turned on her and savaged the credibility of her plan, and therefore, her own credibility. I don't think she has much left after this weekend. I guess she's lucky then that she gets voted by germans, not the greek, IMF, the EU or anyone else. If you actually think that her career is over because she took a hard stance against greece, well.. You really don't look at the big picture, i'd say. People know that greece is and was a disaster - her hard stance towards them actually is what alot, if not most of the germans want. A shattered career now would be if she softens up and throws our/my money at a clusterfuck again. Not the other way around. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On July 15 2015 18:26 zlefin wrote: I think you're way overstating the severity of the situation. She's chancellor of Germany, the most important thing for her continued career is how people in Germany are doing. Foreign policy is only one aspect of that. Also, the EU won't burn. I for one do care about lots of people thinking I'm the spawn of satan thanks to Schäuble and her actions the past week... I just don't see the reason behind it. Sure if the deal is stupid and won't help anyone that's one thing (sry @greeks for saying that so nonchalantly, I'm just entertaining his "All she has to care about is what people in Germany think of her" idea), but to get exactly the same thing while pissing everyone off as well? She could have at least tried getting the same result, a deal that won't work anyways, while pretending to be the good guy. All just to stress the importance of rules and sticking to them. Not even on a level of wether I agree or don't but the way it's been handeled was just plain stupid for Germany as well. | ||
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maartendq
Belgium3115 Posts
On July 15 2015 18:22 Evil_Sheep wrote: I'm not worried about her career. I used to think like everyone else: Merkel is a wise and fair leader. My illusions have been shattered. Her career has been a disaster, her decisions have been reckless and dangerous. 10 years means nothing. The reason I said that her career is over, is now either Greece and the EU burns which is a disaster for her, or the debt is restructured and Greece is saved, which is also a disaster for her. She can kick the can down the road some more but eventually one of those two things will happen. I have a very hard time imagining there is any other possibility for her but the destruction of her career. Also a close and important ally for her, the IMF, the ones she brought in to be credible and responsible: have turned on her and savaged the credibility of her plan, and therefore, her own credibility. I don't think she has much left after this weekend. I don't know of a single European head of state whose career was over due to foreign affairs policy. You also underestimate how tired the other EMU countries are of Greece's shenanigans the past five or six years in general, and the last five months specifically. Finland and the Baltic states are actually way more hardline than Germany, but of course it's easier (and more profitable) for the press to target the main European economic powerhouse that has also started two world wars last century. | ||
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unsaeglich
260 Posts
On July 15 2015 18:50 Toadesstern wrote: I for one do care about lots of people thinking I'm the spawn of satan thanks to Schäuble and her actions the past week... I just don't see the reason behind it. Sure if the deal is stupid and won't help anyone that's one thing (sry @greeks for saying that so nonchalantly, I'm just entertaining his "All she has to care about is what people in Germany think of her" idea), but to get exactly the same thing while pissing everyone off as well? She could have at least tried getting the same result, a deal that won't work anyways, while pretending to be the good guy. All just to stress the importance of rules and sticking to them. Not even on a level of wether I agree or don't but the way it's been handeled was just plain stupid for Germany as well. Schäuble is preceived as the Satan himself though, if people paint him as a Nazi, it has to be sarcastic, or do they not know how the Nazi's treated cripples? To me he's like Tyrion from GoT, an "ugly" dwraf, cripple, who is very smart and tries his best to rule, but is still everyone's enemy #1. I have to like him for that though, sure at some point he snaps, but tryion did that too, and I still liked him. THey are alright guys imho. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On July 15 2015 18:57 unsaeglich wrote: Schäuble is preceived as the Satan himself though, if people paint him as a Nazi, it has to be sarcastic, or do they not know how the Nazi's treated cripples? To me he's like Tyrion from GoT, an "ugly" dwraf, cripple, who is very smart and tries his best to rule, but is still everyone's enemy #1. I have to like him for that though, sure at some point he snaps, but tryion did that too, and I still liked him. THey are alright guys imho. I'm not sure he's smart enough to figure out what's working economically outside of Germany. It's been very apparent over the last couple years that he's trying to put up a monument with his "schwarze Null" project, saccing things just for the sake of making sure that doesn't get in any danger and a non-austerity approach would get in his way. I'd assume he wants to go down in the history books in Germany for achieving that. Would explain why he's so adamant about it even if people tell him he's wrong. I don't mind him telling us germans what to do, seems to work over here but other than that... And again, I don't have a better idea how to solve this mess either. Clearly you can't just let them do whatever they want while sending money or it's just going to be the same thing again. Clearly what's proposed right now won't work either. What's boggling me is how you can fuck up lots and lots of good relations in such a short time when, if you really don't care about a proposal that actually makes sense, you could have just done that without making us look like assholes. | ||
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Evil_Sheep
Canada902 Posts
The second option is Grexit. It was in fact Merkel's intention to push Greece out for the last few months, but she was forced to back down at the bailout negotiations. France, Italy, and many other European countries are completely opposed -- not to mention the US, another close ally. Greek exit would be dangerous, destabilizing, and would lead to total economic destruction in Greece, which would all be blamed on Germany. The criticism of Merkel if she allowed this to happen, from inside and outside Europe would be unbelievable. If you think it is bad now, it would be Sunday school choir compared with what would come in a Grexit. She would divide Europe in two and alienate a lot of allies. Which is why she backed down. Many believe that after the bailout summit, Grexit is no longer possible because of the reasons I've just mentioned. This option would be highly destructive to both Greece and the EU project...and Merkel's reputation and career. And yes, I do think Germans would care about that. Of course they would care about having a chancellor perceived as breaking up and destroying the European Union. Calling this a "foreign affairs crisis" would be a hilarious understatement. This is not a Greek crisis, calling it a Greek crisis is really a mistake at this point. It is an EU existential crisis, and Germany is at the centre of this crisis, and at the centre of the EU. Frankly if Germany decides at any point it is tired of the EU...that's it. It's over. There is simply no EU without Germany's full and complete support. And if Europe is not United, then it will be divided. In the event of a Grexit, there will be a lot of serious questions to be asked that may not be good to ask. So those are the two options for Merkel. Either path will lead to the ruin of her career and reputation. I cannot see how it can be otherwise. | ||
zatic
Zurich15362 Posts
On July 15 2015 19:41 Evil_Sheep wrote: So those are the two options for Merkel. Either path will lead to the ruin of her career and reputation. I cannot see how it can be otherwise. Care to qualify this? Maybe we have different ideas of what "ruin of her career" means. Will she resign, call for new elections, not be reelected, not run again? What does "ruin of her career" mean? In any case quoting this to prove you wrong a few years down the line. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On July 15 2015 19:41 Evil_Sheep wrote: The second option is Grexit. It was in fact Merkel's intention to push Greece out for the last few months, but she was forced to back down at the bailout negotiations. France, Italy, and many other European countries are completely opposed -- not to mention the US, another close ally. Hahaha, France, Italy and "other countries" other countries aka only Cyprus. Also unlike the Baltics or Finland or "other countries" Germany has always refused a Grexit, until Schäuble suggested the temporary Grexit last weekend, after being fed up with the Greek bullshit. And with this proposal he just followed the Greek referendum. The Greek government blocked any deal for months, the Greek people voted against the best deal, the paying nations were willing to offer. Then it is probably time to realize there is no agreement possible, and looks for alternatives. But then of course Tspiras comes in, and tells everyone that the referendum was just a joke, never meant like that, and of course Greece accepts everything. And then is surprised, that nobody believes/trusts him anymore. No really? Also Germany has actually mentioned multiple times during the last weeks, that a debt restructuring may be necessary. The refusal of the IMF to financially take part of the deal, if there is no restructuring has already been known on Friday/Saturday, and everyone was fully aware of it. (In fact, the IMF had reduced its earlier phrasing, where it explicitly said that debt cuts were necessary, and changed it to debt restructuring, making way for an agreement with the EU) That is why it was already discussed, if there are possibilities for the IMF just to assist in a advisory role, without using it's own money. As well as it was clear, that debt restructuring has to happen if the EU wants to have the IMF on board with money as well. You present it as if those IMF reports would be news, completely destroying the EU plans. It isn't. It was all well known, when the deal was made. A deal backed by 16 Euro nations, while only 3 wanted a less strict one. I agree with other German posters here, that Merkel/Schäubles style during the weekend negotiations was lacking, and has damaged Germanys reputation needlessly. But the way people are twisting facts, just to bitch at Germany is just ridiculous. | ||
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unsaeglich
260 Posts
Germany was forced into the euro by France as a requirement for the reunition of west- and eastgermany. Have no illusions, France has been afraid of the reunition and has been afraid of Germany ever since. The friendship is for the cameras. That's why France by priciniple will disagree with Germany. The EU was a forced project, which came to early and was destined to fail. Nothing of value will be lost. Merkle did a good job as a chancellor, and after her 3rd period it's more or less up to her if she want's to do it again. | ||
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Evil_Sheep
Canada902 Posts
On July 15 2015 19:53 zatic wrote: Care to qualify this? Maybe we have different ideas of what "ruin of her career" means. Will she resign, call for new elections, not be reelected, not run again? What does "ruin of her career" mean? In any case quoting this to prove you wrong a few years down the line. What I mean is that analysts and historians will judge her badly in the future, and her reputation will be ruined by her actions during this crisis. But more than that, because I believe the IMF has just torpedoed her bailout plan for Greece, which is in any case almost impossible to actually execute, she will need to take imminent action. Either she will need to humiliatingly climb down and follow the IMF's plan for debt restructuring, or she will have to push Greece out of the euro. Perhaps she will kick the can down the road a little longer, even years, but eventually one of those two outcomes will occur. With the same repercussions that I mentioned. Either path will deal enormous, if not fatal damage, to her career. That means she might lose an election, she might be pushed out by her own party, she may suddenly and unexpectedly resign. This may even happen very soon, or in a few years, I don't know. Maybe she will even manage to survive for years before retiring at a time of her choosing. But the massive damage to her reputation will come. She will be eventually regarded as the Chancellor who jeopardized the entire European Union over a tiny, stupid debt crisis that she failed to deal with rationally or intelligently. It is not that I have a vendetta against Merkel, it just appears to be the logical conclusion of the fact that she has trapped herself politically in a corner with no escape. If someone can explain to me how this argument is incorrect, I would be curious and interested how it is possible for her to escape this dilemma. I am very aware her political abilities are formidable and even at this moment she has massive political support in Germany and within her party, but this problem in which she has trapped herself seems too great for her, or anyone, to escape from. Eventually it must catch up to her. And I will be more than happy to revisit this claim in a few years time...even if I'm wrong. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Like I said, she could frame her party and tell people how she was a lot less harsher than literally 99% of her party wanted her to be and thus had her hand forced. Heck it might even turn into a positive thing for her in the eyes of the current generation if she shows up with the balls to change plans after comming to the realization that her plan isn't working out. Who knows. But I'd be willing to bet money that it won't be an issue for her in Germany for at least the next 10 years if the pace of the last week and how she's pissing everyone off doesn't continue any further. And most germans in here seem to think the same. | ||
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unsaeglich
260 Posts
It's not up to the Greece or even Canadians  to decide about her history, she works on behalf of the German people, and it's up them to decide if she does represent them well enough. | ||
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zatic
Zurich15362 Posts
On July 15 2015 21:19 unsaeglich wrote: She adapts to situations quickly (see Fokushima for example), she's not corrupt, she's hardworking, and did solid politics for 10 years. This is actually an excellent example. Merkel started into her first term backed by the large utilities with the promise to undo the exit from nuclear power, and to extend the runtime of German nuclear power plans. Pretty much undoing the decisions from the previous social-democratic / green government. When Fukushima hit, she did an immediate 180, was suddenly all for the exit and is now known to be among the "green" conservatives. EVERYONE ate this bullshit without questioning any of it. She could simply point to an external factor with next to zero impact on actual decision making in Germany, and everyone was happy to forget that just yesterday she was on the complete opposite side. No matter what happens with Greece or Europe, domestically there will be no significant blame on Merkel. | ||
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Evil_Sheep
Canada902 Posts
On July 15 2015 20:03 mahrgell wrote: Hahaha, France, Italy and "other countries" other countries aka only Cyprus. I highly doubt that these three countries are the only ones seriously concerned and disturbed by the possibility of Grexit. All European countries should be questioning the serious consequences... which are frankly unknown and extremely risky. Also unlike the Baltics or Finland or "other countries" Germany has always refused a Grexit, until Schäuble suggested the temporary Grexit last weekend, after being fed up with the Greek bullshit. I don't know what the German government is thinking or intending, but there is a lot of evidence to suggest that Germany's intention has been to kick Greece out of the euro for months...which is backed up by their hardline uncompromising negotiating stance, with the intention of making Greece jump so it didn't look like Germany was pushing them. But Greece stubbornly, hilariously refused to jump. They've demonstrated they would sooner cut off their own arm than leave the euro (and Merkel and Schauble have accepted their offer.) Hollande is quoted as saying: Germany's intention was to kick Greece out of the Euro. Varoufakis (the lead negotiator for months with Germany): Germany's intention was to kick Greece out of the Euro. And then there's this conversation posted here earlier... http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/business/dealbook/the-hard-line-on-greece.html?_r=0 Also Germany has actually mentioned multiple times during the last weeks, that a debt restructuring may be necessary. I don't know what you're talking about. Greece has asked for debt restructuring in a hundred different ways and Germany has said no a hundred times. This has been at the heart of the deadlock at the crisis negotiations. Schauble only offered debt forgiveness AND aid if Greece left the euro...transparently part of his plan to get Greece to voluntarily exit the eurozone. You present it as if those IMF reports would be news, completely destroying the EU plans. It isn't. I'm not the only one to think this. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33531743 The IMF was an extremely important ally for Merkel legitimizing her strategy, which has now turned on her. They were also expected to contribute a sizeable sum of $, I read somewhere 25% of the bailout. But the main cost is political. | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
Journalism is about timing, and if they can increase the drama in their headlines by delaying news, they do it. And then again... It was all known on the weekend. And not only to those in power, but even to the media. German media (tagesschau.de = national TV, generally regime friendly as well as spiegel.de = against the german stance in this) was discussing it already on Saturday. And I doubt they knew it first. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18218 Posts
The deal, as was made, doesn't directly depend on the IMF. The next step, regardless of what the IMF says (and the IMF's stance hasn't really changed at all in the last few weeks), is that all EU (or at least Eurozone, not sure if the whole EU is necessary) parliaments need to ratify the agreement. Some of these may clamour and resist with the "new" information from the IMF. The Dutch parliament, at least, is already resisting, but if Merkel gets it through the German parliament, I fully expect the Dutch parliament to bluster and complain for a bit, but then vote yes on it: given the role Dijsselbloem played in the negotiations, far too much loss of face would happen, and I don't think the VVD is willing to blow up the government over this deal. Most other minor countries will probably do the same, which leaves France and Italy as the only real opposition. But for France or Italy to blow up the deal after both Greece and Germany voted yes, would cause more chaos than I think either country is willing to create in Europe. So that means the deal will be approved, which leaves the exact details to be worked through for the temporary funding. After that, negotiations reopen anyway to see how long-term funding of Greece can be organized, and at this point, Merkel could accept the IMF advice by simply saying that while it is a bitter pill to swallow, reality cannot be avoided, and debt relief is a necessity. But only after Greece has made significant reforms and further concessions, blablabla. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22102 Posts
On July 15 2015 21:49 Acrofales wrote: I don't think you're understanding German politics as well as you think you do. When all the Germans in the thread tell you you're wrong, you're probably wrong. The deal, as was made, doesn't directly depend on the IMF. The next step, regardless of what the IMF says (and the IMF's stance hasn't really changed at all in the last few weeks), is that all EU (or at least Eurozone, not sure if the whole EU is necessary) parliaments need to ratify the agreement. Some of these may clamour and resist with the "new" information from the IMF. The Dutch parliament, at least, is already resisting, but if Merkel gets it through the German parliament, I fully expect the Dutch parliament to bluster and complain for a bit, but then vote yes on it: given the role Dijsselbloem played in the negotiations, far too much loss of face would happen, and I don't think the VVD is willing to blow up the government over this deal. Most other minor countries will probably do the same, which leaves France and Italy as the only real opposition. But for France or Italy to blow up the deal after both Greece and Germany voted yes, would cause more chaos than I think either country is willing to create in Europe. So that means the deal will be approved, which leaves the exact details to be worked through for the temporary funding. After that, negotiations reopen anyway to see how long-term funding of Greece can be organized, and at this point, Merkel could accept the IMF advice by simply saying that while it is a bitter pill to swallow, reality cannot be avoided, and debt relief is a necessity. But only after Greece has made significant reforms and further concessions, blablabla. Exactly, Plus people seem to be forgetting that it has already been stated multiple times that debt relief was always going to happen, AFTER Greece did the agreed reforms. That go's all the way back to the 2012 agreement. The point is that the Eurogroup is not willing to do it prior to reforms for fear of Greece relapsing into its old ways. | ||
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Evil_Sheep
Canada902 Posts
Plus people seem to be forgetting that it has already been stated multiple times that debt relief was always going to happen Germany has a different idea of "debt relief" than most economists, now including the IMF. Germany has been talking vaguely of extending maturities with zero debt forgiveness, ever. They have never wavered from this line. The IMF has called for a 30yr grace period or a large debt haircut, which is what Syriza have been asking for the whole time, and Germany has vehemently declined every time. The IMF is now in broad agreement with Syriza's negotiating position, and for Germany to agree to that now...would be a massive, humiliating capitulation. There is no way to spin that any other way. | ||
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