EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 209
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c0ldfusion
United States8293 Posts
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sneirac
Germany3464 Posts
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Evil_Sheep
Canada902 Posts
On July 15 2015 21:42 mahrgell wrote: Only because the BBC digs shit out now, that was long known... It doesn't make it news. Journalism is about timing, and if they can increase the drama in their headlines by delaying news, they do it. And then again... It was all known on the weekend. And not only to those in power, but even to the media. German media (tagesschau.de = national TV, generally regime friendly as well as spiegel.de = against the german stance in this) was discussing it already on Saturday. And I doubt they knew it first. Truly, the timing is not the most important factor. It's the fact that the IMF has officially, and not secretly in some leaked document that is easily denied or redacted, come out against the German bailout plan and called it nonsense, that is the important story here. | ||
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Evil_Sheep
Canada902 Posts
On July 15 2015 21:09 Toadesstern wrote: Noone knows how she does it, but Teflonmerkel is Teflonmerkel. Nothing sticks to her no matter what. She could probably get away with child pornography. Maybe slightly exaggerated but really, that's how it is. Not sure what it's going to be like in 50-100 years but I highly doubt your #1 idea would be an issue for her. Like I said, she could frame her party and tell people how she was a lot less harsher than literally 99% of her party wanted her to be and thus had her hand forced. Heck it might even turn into a positive thing for her in the eyes of the current generation if she shows up with the balls to change plans after comming to the realization that her plan isn't working out. Who knows. But I'd be willing to bet money that it won't be an issue for her in Germany for at least the next 10 years if the pace of the last week and how she's pissing everyone off doesn't continue any further. And most germans in here seem to think the same. You are right -- I know little of German domestic politics (I am learning many interesting things recently however.) Perhaps she will be forever unsullied, untouchable in Germany: teflon. I doubt it however. How many times can you screw up, badly, before eventually people start to realize who's responsible for making the bad decisions. There are countless examples of politicians who were once considered untouchable, omnipotent...until the day they fell from grace. For example, the original Iron Lady. Germany is a democracy and they will hold their politicians to account just like any other democracy; politics there is ruthless and dishonest, just as it is everywhere else. Merkel's problem is she's promised German voters that the Greeks will pay back all their debts, every cent (as long as they remain in the euro.) The rules will be followed. She will ensure that a European always pays his debts...no matter the cost. She's said it a hundred times, a thousand times, until she's blue in the face, to the Greeks and the rest of Europe. She's staked her reputation on it. She's staked the entire European Union on it. But it's all a big lie. The Greeks will one day default on their debt. Massively. Probably sooner rather than later. The debt is impossible to pay. The debt will inevitably, at some point in time, be restructured and probably much of it forgiven (that or they will still be paying this debt in 2300.) Now even the IMF, her former ally, has said it. And once the German people realize that Merkel has been lying to them this whole time... she will pay the price. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18291 Posts
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Evil_Sheep
Canada902 Posts
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Acrofales
Spain18291 Posts
On July 15 2015 22:45 Evil_Sheep wrote: I dont think Germans, or Europeans, are so stupid to think, OK you've said 1000 times you can't and won't (meaningfully) restructure the debt, but you now you are saying it's OK to restructure the debt...but no problem. Oh and you were willing to break up the EU over this issue. But no big deal. What can I say? Apparently politics in Canada works differently. My experience in NL (and also in Spain), is that a political promise is completely worthless. At best it's a way of saying that the politician will try his best to achieve that. At worst, it's a way to collect cheap votes. In no case is it supposed to be interpreted as gospel truth. And Merkel being overtaken by reality is politically savvy enough to teflon that off. | ||
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lord_nibbler
Germany591 Posts
On July 15 2015 22:25 Evil_Sheep wrote: I am almost certain, she never said 'all dept' or 'every cent', she is way to smart for that.Merkel's problem is she's promised German voters that the Greeks will pay back all their debts, every cent And once the German people realize that Merkel has been lying to them this whole time... she will pay the price. The examples are endless. She was against minimum wage until she introduced it this year, she was against an all-volunteer army until she got rid of conscription, she was for nuclear power plants running longer until she closed all of them on one day (unlawfully even!) and the list goes on and on. There will be 'debt restructuring' pushing the pay time back to 2050 or further, which will be a de facto dept relief, because inflation will eat it away. And the German general public will swallow it like always. I bet, it will not even be an issue in the next election campaign. And you know what was at the core of all these decisions? Public opinion. She follows the opinions of her constituency closer than any politician. (Apparently she orders 'micro-surveys' almost daily.) 4 years ago German public opinion was that we should not let Greece fall of the cliff, so she broke the EU rules and gave out loans and a bail-out. This time public opinion was on the edge, Greece did not 'reform', so either let them go or maybe do a last effort, but only with hard lines that when crossed mean an almost certain Grexit. I don't know, want will be the general feeling in 2 years but I would guess it would be along the lines of 'Greece is still not doing enough and they broke some of the determined goals, so let them go now, who cares about these loans, just get it over with." | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On July 15 2015 22:25 Evil_Sheep wrote: Merkel's problem is she's promised German voters that the Greeks will pay back all their debts, every cent (as long as they remain in the euro.) The rules will be followed. She will ensure that a European always pays his debts...no matter the cost. She's said it a hundred times, a thousand times, until she's blue in the face, to the Greeks and the rest of Europe. She's staked her reputation on it. She's staked the entire European Union on it. But it's all a big lie. nope, she didn't. And nobody in Germany expects that. People would be way more willing to support any help for Greece, if there would be the slightest hope of getting the money back. But then again, you are the expert on German politics here. Who am I to argue about that... Also the IMF's position is very far from Syriza. In fact, Merkel wants the IMF on board mainly for their expertise, because while the Troika tries to always make their own "work" look good, the IMF has stated again and again, that the reforms in the last years didn't do shit. It was the IMF who called for more reforms in Greece. Even though the position of IMF and the EU on how the debt should be handled are different, it's position is still closer to the EU than to Syriza. And this difference is easily explained, that from a pure economical pov of course the IMF is right. Nobody would argue about that. Problem is, that from a political pov it is not that easy. You have debt? You are a huge money drain, because of your bloated system? You ran your entire country into the dirt? Only solution is to run it in deeper! Then you get your debt cut! Would be a great message to all the other nations in Europe, those that reformed (painfully), and did not get such an easy way out. Why would Spain or the Baltics try to reform, if they could just follow the Greek route, refuse everything, rampage through all negotiations, break every agreement they had, and just try to continue their old course until they finally get their debt cut... | ||
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c0ldfusion
United States8293 Posts
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On July 16 2015 00:50 Toadesstern wrote: I don't think he's corrupt but what do I know about that. But yes he is contempt, ignorant and above everything else stubborn He has been judged guilty for receiving money from an arm dealer I believe ? | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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sneirac
Germany3464 Posts
Charge was perjury and it was dropped. Edit: For the sake of the original point, calling Schäuble corrupt made me blink because he is regarded as the most principled and honest politicians still around, as opposed to Merkel adjusting her positions along with popular opinion.. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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Godwrath
Spain10142 Posts
On July 15 2015 23:04 mahrgell wrote: Spain's problems are mostly rooted within the politician class, not your average taxpayer. The one EU supports that class by fear instigation and making an example with Greece. Why would Spain or the Baltics try to reform, if they could just follow the Greek route, refuse everything, rampage through all negotiations, break every agreement they had, and just try to continue their old course until they finally get their debt cut... | ||
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c0ldfusion
United States8293 Posts
On July 16 2015 01:57 Godwrath wrote: Spain's problems are mostly rooted within the politician class, not your average taxpayer. The one EU supports that class by fear instigation and making an example with Greece. How are things in Spain right now? How do the people feel about Greece's outcome? Does it lend support to Podemos? | ||
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Elizar
Germany431 Posts
On July 15 2015 22:25 Evil_Sheep wrote: Merkel's problem is she's promised German voters that the Greeks will pay back all their debts, every cent (as long as they remain in the euro.) The rules will be followed. She will ensure that a European always pays his debts...no matter the cost. The comparison to Tyrion Lannister before, now the thing about "always pays their debts". God damn it boys, we´re the Lannisters  | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
Debt would peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years. This contrasts with earlier projections that the peak in debt—at 177 percent of GDP in 2014—is already behind us. b. By 2022, debt is now projected to be at 170 percent of GDP, compared to an estimate of 142 percent of GDP projected in our published DSA. c. Gross financing needs would rise to levels well above what they were at the last review (and above the 15 percent of GDP threshold deemed safe) and continue rising in the long term. I don't understand how they think Greece's Debt/GDP will peak at 200%, but be back down to 170% by 2022, that plus the 3.5% primary surplus assumption, are just out of this world. If what they say is true, is true, they could cut the Germans out of the loop, cover Greece's short-term debts, slap a long-term maturity onto the IMF-funded bailout and ride their projections int long term prosperity. | ||
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