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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 161

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
July 06 2015 12:58 GMT
#3201
On July 06 2015 21:47 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 21:35 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:23 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 20:56 Taguchi wrote:
After the debt-writeoff: Continue full steam ahead with real reforms, get the state functioning properly, hire tax auditors and whatever else you need to improve tax collection, let businesses operate in a stable environment (specific numbers on taxes etc matter less than stability), so on and so forth. Implement the 70% of the MoU that Varoufakis agreed with.

Also on the list: Break the link between media and large private companies receiving state contracts (they are one and the same currently), get rid of monopolies/oligopolies... make your peace with Turkey, reunite Cyprus, attempt to deal with the mass migration issue as well as you possibly can.

The above needs to happen under any scenario. But it can only work if debt is no longer an issue. Whatever you hear about statists, commies and whatnot is hogwash. Greeks simply don't want that. Syriza was the ONLY (sane) alternative left since everyone else in the political spectrum was complicit in us getting to this point.

edit: I also like the idea of the automatic debt brake. If it looks like you're off track, slash wages, pensions, procurement and so on until you're back on track, automatically. Pretty good incentive for a government that wants to get reelected to not fuck up, no?

edit2: Also, responding to Zatic. Yes, after CCs were imposed, it is very likely that we will need to go through harsher austerity in the near term to hit various goals agreed to previously. But if the matter of the debt is settled (or a proper timetable for its settling is formally, as opposed to vaguely, agreed) I believe it'd have been worth it. Should've happened in 2010. Alas.


If Greece does set out for that I'm quite sure it would have the full support of the EU, or at least large parts of the population which would force politicians to follow.

If they do it before asking for relief then yes but not after. Greece has already broken several previous agreements, why would they keep this one?

I'm afraid this might very well be the sentiment they will have to deal with during the negotiations.


And unfortunately, completely justifiably so.

Varoufakis stepping down is the latest in Tsipras' unending bag of tricks. While I don't doubt that Varoufakis doesn't get along on a personal level with members of the Troika, stepping down now just delays negotiations even further.

How is a new finance minister supposed to step in and pick up, without significant time to learn what is happening? Not only that, but Varoufakis' parting words imply that other finmins are a bunch of children who can't see past personal dislike and do business with him, a blatant attempt. at shifting the blame for this latest delay into the Troika's lap. It is both unresponsible and stupid: it's not Germany or Holland that have to close the banks... the person who should be in a hurry to close this deal for the good of his country seems perfectly happy to sit on his hands and watch it explode. Tsipras is playing his fiddle while Athens burns around him (almost makes one wish this was happening in Italy. so as to be more poetic).


New FinMin will probably be Tsakalotos, who has been the head of the technical negotiating team since the Riga Eurogroup of April. So that should solve that major issue.

Besides, Varoufakis claimed he resigned because several FinMins wouldn't have anything to do with him.

I'm not sure what more you could expect from Tsipras to do other than calling in all other political parties today to form common ground (after winning the referendum by a landslide, at that), ousting his rockstar, provocative and beloved for most Greeks and anti-austerity people elsewhere in Europe FinMin and being scheduled to present whatever plan he has tomorrow, on the EU Summit.

The entire EU framed the referendum as something it was never intended to be, a question of IN or OUT of the euro. Tsipras NEVER alluded to that. As it became clear the NO would win comfortably many in the EU changed their tune (notably Italy's and France's PMs). And yet, you still choose to blame Tsipras for everything. It was a regime change operation and it failed (you'd rather Tsipras just folded and left but he's allowed to fight back you know, especially when his electorate supports him). Handing Varoufakis's head on a platter is a major signal for reconciliation. If there is no reconciliation after all it would be quite a stretch to lay it on Tsipras's lap (pending tomorrow's substantive talks, naturally, but if you expect Tsipras to come out swinging from now on you'll be sorely disappointed I believe).
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21962 Posts
July 06 2015 13:03 GMT
#3202
On July 06 2015 21:58 Taguchi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 21:47 Acrofales wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:35 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:23 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 20:56 Taguchi wrote:
After the debt-writeoff: Continue full steam ahead with real reforms, get the state functioning properly, hire tax auditors and whatever else you need to improve tax collection, let businesses operate in a stable environment (specific numbers on taxes etc matter less than stability), so on and so forth. Implement the 70% of the MoU that Varoufakis agreed with.

Also on the list: Break the link between media and large private companies receiving state contracts (they are one and the same currently), get rid of monopolies/oligopolies... make your peace with Turkey, reunite Cyprus, attempt to deal with the mass migration issue as well as you possibly can.

The above needs to happen under any scenario. But it can only work if debt is no longer an issue. Whatever you hear about statists, commies and whatnot is hogwash. Greeks simply don't want that. Syriza was the ONLY (sane) alternative left since everyone else in the political spectrum was complicit in us getting to this point.

edit: I also like the idea of the automatic debt brake. If it looks like you're off track, slash wages, pensions, procurement and so on until you're back on track, automatically. Pretty good incentive for a government that wants to get reelected to not fuck up, no?

edit2: Also, responding to Zatic. Yes, after CCs were imposed, it is very likely that we will need to go through harsher austerity in the near term to hit various goals agreed to previously. But if the matter of the debt is settled (or a proper timetable for its settling is formally, as opposed to vaguely, agreed) I believe it'd have been worth it. Should've happened in 2010. Alas.


If Greece does set out for that I'm quite sure it would have the full support of the EU, or at least large parts of the population which would force politicians to follow.

If they do it before asking for relief then yes but not after. Greece has already broken several previous agreements, why would they keep this one?

I'm afraid this might very well be the sentiment they will have to deal with during the negotiations.


And unfortunately, completely justifiably so.

Varoufakis stepping down is the latest in Tsipras' unending bag of tricks. While I don't doubt that Varoufakis doesn't get along on a personal level with members of the Troika, stepping down now just delays negotiations even further.

How is a new finance minister supposed to step in and pick up, without significant time to learn what is happening? Not only that, but Varoufakis' parting words imply that other finmins are a bunch of children who can't see past personal dislike and do business with him, a blatant attempt. at shifting the blame for this latest delay into the Troika's lap. It is both unresponsible and stupid: it's not Germany or Holland that have to close the banks... the person who should be in a hurry to close this deal for the good of his country seems perfectly happy to sit on his hands and watch it explode. Tsipras is playing his fiddle while Athens burns around him (almost makes one wish this was happening in Italy. so as to be more poetic).


New FinMin will probably be Tsakalotos, who has been the head of the technical negotiating team since the Riga Eurogroup of April. So that should solve that major issue.

Besides, Varoufakis claimed he resigned because several FinMins wouldn't have anything to do with him.

I'm not sure what more you could expect from Tsipras to do other than calling in all other political parties today to form common ground (after winning the referendum by a landslide, at that), ousting his rockstar, provocative and beloved for most Greeks and anti-austerity people elsewhere in Europe FinMin and being scheduled to present whatever plan he has tomorrow, on the EU Summit.

The entire EU framed the referendum as something it was never intended to be, a question of IN or OUT of the euro. Tsipras NEVER alluded to that. As it became clear the NO would win comfortably many in the EU changed their tune (notably Italy's and France's PMs). And yet, you still choose to blame Tsipras for everything. It was a regime change operation and it failed (you'd rather Tsipras just folded and left but he's allowed to fight back you know, especially when his electorate supports him). Handing Varoufakis's head on a platter is a major signal for reconciliation. If there is no reconciliation after all it would be quite a stretch to lay it on Tsipras's lap (pending tomorrow's substantive talks, naturally, but if you expect Tsipras to come out swinging from now on you'll be sorely disappointed I believe).

The referendum was framed that way because the actual question of the referendum was useless.
The deal mentioned in the referendum was off the table. It was for the June 30th package. The deadline has passed.
The actual referendum wasn't worth the paper it was printed on and that was obvious to everyone to moment the referendum was announced.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
July 06 2015 13:09 GMT
#3203
On July 06 2015 22:03 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 21:58 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:47 Acrofales wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:35 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:23 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 20:56 Taguchi wrote:
After the debt-writeoff: Continue full steam ahead with real reforms, get the state functioning properly, hire tax auditors and whatever else you need to improve tax collection, let businesses operate in a stable environment (specific numbers on taxes etc matter less than stability), so on and so forth. Implement the 70% of the MoU that Varoufakis agreed with.

Also on the list: Break the link between media and large private companies receiving state contracts (they are one and the same currently), get rid of monopolies/oligopolies... make your peace with Turkey, reunite Cyprus, attempt to deal with the mass migration issue as well as you possibly can.

The above needs to happen under any scenario. But it can only work if debt is no longer an issue. Whatever you hear about statists, commies and whatnot is hogwash. Greeks simply don't want that. Syriza was the ONLY (sane) alternative left since everyone else in the political spectrum was complicit in us getting to this point.

edit: I also like the idea of the automatic debt brake. If it looks like you're off track, slash wages, pensions, procurement and so on until you're back on track, automatically. Pretty good incentive for a government that wants to get reelected to not fuck up, no?

edit2: Also, responding to Zatic. Yes, after CCs were imposed, it is very likely that we will need to go through harsher austerity in the near term to hit various goals agreed to previously. But if the matter of the debt is settled (or a proper timetable for its settling is formally, as opposed to vaguely, agreed) I believe it'd have been worth it. Should've happened in 2010. Alas.


If Greece does set out for that I'm quite sure it would have the full support of the EU, or at least large parts of the population which would force politicians to follow.

If they do it before asking for relief then yes but not after. Greece has already broken several previous agreements, why would they keep this one?

I'm afraid this might very well be the sentiment they will have to deal with during the negotiations.


And unfortunately, completely justifiably so.

Varoufakis stepping down is the latest in Tsipras' unending bag of tricks. While I don't doubt that Varoufakis doesn't get along on a personal level with members of the Troika, stepping down now just delays negotiations even further.

How is a new finance minister supposed to step in and pick up, without significant time to learn what is happening? Not only that, but Varoufakis' parting words imply that other finmins are a bunch of children who can't see past personal dislike and do business with him, a blatant attempt. at shifting the blame for this latest delay into the Troika's lap. It is both unresponsible and stupid: it's not Germany or Holland that have to close the banks... the person who should be in a hurry to close this deal for the good of his country seems perfectly happy to sit on his hands and watch it explode. Tsipras is playing his fiddle while Athens burns around him (almost makes one wish this was happening in Italy. so as to be more poetic).


New FinMin will probably be Tsakalotos, who has been the head of the technical negotiating team since the Riga Eurogroup of April. So that should solve that major issue.

Besides, Varoufakis claimed he resigned because several FinMins wouldn't have anything to do with him.

I'm not sure what more you could expect from Tsipras to do other than calling in all other political parties today to form common ground (after winning the referendum by a landslide, at that), ousting his rockstar, provocative and beloved for most Greeks and anti-austerity people elsewhere in Europe FinMin and being scheduled to present whatever plan he has tomorrow, on the EU Summit.

The entire EU framed the referendum as something it was never intended to be, a question of IN or OUT of the euro. Tsipras NEVER alluded to that. As it became clear the NO would win comfortably many in the EU changed their tune (notably Italy's and France's PMs). And yet, you still choose to blame Tsipras for everything. It was a regime change operation and it failed (you'd rather Tsipras just folded and left but he's allowed to fight back you know, especially when his electorate supports him). Handing Varoufakis's head on a platter is a major signal for reconciliation. If there is no reconciliation after all it would be quite a stretch to lay it on Tsipras's lap (pending tomorrow's substantive talks, naturally, but if you expect Tsipras to come out swinging from now on you'll be sorely disappointed I believe).

The referendum was framed that way because the actual question of the referendum was useless.
The deal mentioned in the referendum was off the table. It was for the June 30th package. The deadline has passed.
The actual referendum wasn't worth the paper it was printed on and that was obvious to everyone to moment the referendum was announced.


All true. But the real question was whether Tsipras would deal with Europe, or someone else. Europe pushed for someone else (heavy-handedly and you're pretty lucky not to be able to witness the horrible media campaign for YES here - seriously I wish no one has to ever go through this sort of fearmongering propaganda), aka regime change. But this didn't materialize. And Tsipras's move has been to a) confer with the leaders of the other major political parties (the ones that supported the YES and that Europe pushed for, same people that governed Greece for 40 years, make of that what you will), b) replace Varoufakis, c) not mention the word drachma even one time, appear conciliatory instead of self-congratulatory and remains to be seen what he proposes to other leaders tomorrow, but I'm very much afraid (I think you'd like an alternative :p ) it'll be something quite reasonable.
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
c0ldfusion
Profile Joined October 2010
United States8293 Posts
July 06 2015 13:10 GMT
#3204
I thought everyone agree that the referendum was mainly a political play by Tsipras to solidify support and to jockey for better positioning in the negotiations.

It's interesting because one would think that the Greeks are the ones on the clock, so to speak.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21962 Posts
July 06 2015 13:18 GMT
#3205
On July 06 2015 22:09 Taguchi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 22:03 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:58 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:47 Acrofales wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:35 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:23 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 20:56 Taguchi wrote:
After the debt-writeoff: Continue full steam ahead with real reforms, get the state functioning properly, hire tax auditors and whatever else you need to improve tax collection, let businesses operate in a stable environment (specific numbers on taxes etc matter less than stability), so on and so forth. Implement the 70% of the MoU that Varoufakis agreed with.

Also on the list: Break the link between media and large private companies receiving state contracts (they are one and the same currently), get rid of monopolies/oligopolies... make your peace with Turkey, reunite Cyprus, attempt to deal with the mass migration issue as well as you possibly can.

The above needs to happen under any scenario. But it can only work if debt is no longer an issue. Whatever you hear about statists, commies and whatnot is hogwash. Greeks simply don't want that. Syriza was the ONLY (sane) alternative left since everyone else in the political spectrum was complicit in us getting to this point.

edit: I also like the idea of the automatic debt brake. If it looks like you're off track, slash wages, pensions, procurement and so on until you're back on track, automatically. Pretty good incentive for a government that wants to get reelected to not fuck up, no?

edit2: Also, responding to Zatic. Yes, after CCs were imposed, it is very likely that we will need to go through harsher austerity in the near term to hit various goals agreed to previously. But if the matter of the debt is settled (or a proper timetable for its settling is formally, as opposed to vaguely, agreed) I believe it'd have been worth it. Should've happened in 2010. Alas.


If Greece does set out for that I'm quite sure it would have the full support of the EU, or at least large parts of the population which would force politicians to follow.

If they do it before asking for relief then yes but not after. Greece has already broken several previous agreements, why would they keep this one?

I'm afraid this might very well be the sentiment they will have to deal with during the negotiations.


And unfortunately, completely justifiably so.

Varoufakis stepping down is the latest in Tsipras' unending bag of tricks. While I don't doubt that Varoufakis doesn't get along on a personal level with members of the Troika, stepping down now just delays negotiations even further.

How is a new finance minister supposed to step in and pick up, without significant time to learn what is happening? Not only that, but Varoufakis' parting words imply that other finmins are a bunch of children who can't see past personal dislike and do business with him, a blatant attempt. at shifting the blame for this latest delay into the Troika's lap. It is both unresponsible and stupid: it's not Germany or Holland that have to close the banks... the person who should be in a hurry to close this deal for the good of his country seems perfectly happy to sit on his hands and watch it explode. Tsipras is playing his fiddle while Athens burns around him (almost makes one wish this was happening in Italy. so as to be more poetic).


New FinMin will probably be Tsakalotos, who has been the head of the technical negotiating team since the Riga Eurogroup of April. So that should solve that major issue.

Besides, Varoufakis claimed he resigned because several FinMins wouldn't have anything to do with him.

I'm not sure what more you could expect from Tsipras to do other than calling in all other political parties today to form common ground (after winning the referendum by a landslide, at that), ousting his rockstar, provocative and beloved for most Greeks and anti-austerity people elsewhere in Europe FinMin and being scheduled to present whatever plan he has tomorrow, on the EU Summit.

The entire EU framed the referendum as something it was never intended to be, a question of IN or OUT of the euro. Tsipras NEVER alluded to that. As it became clear the NO would win comfortably many in the EU changed their tune (notably Italy's and France's PMs). And yet, you still choose to blame Tsipras for everything. It was a regime change operation and it failed (you'd rather Tsipras just folded and left but he's allowed to fight back you know, especially when his electorate supports him). Handing Varoufakis's head on a platter is a major signal for reconciliation. If there is no reconciliation after all it would be quite a stretch to lay it on Tsipras's lap (pending tomorrow's substantive talks, naturally, but if you expect Tsipras to come out swinging from now on you'll be sorely disappointed I believe).

The referendum was framed that way because the actual question of the referendum was useless.
The deal mentioned in the referendum was off the table. It was for the June 30th package. The deadline has passed.
The actual referendum wasn't worth the paper it was printed on and that was obvious to everyone to moment the referendum was announced.


All true. But the real question was whether Tsipras would deal with Europe, or someone else. Europe pushed for someone else (heavy-handedly and you're pretty lucky not to be able to witness the horrible media campaign for YES here - seriously I wish no one has to ever go through this sort of fearmongering propaganda), aka regime change. But this didn't materialize. And Tsipras's move has been to a) confer with the leaders of the other major political parties (the ones that supported the YES and that Europe pushed for, same people that governed Greece for 40 years, make of that what you will), b) replace Varoufakis, c) not mention the word drachma even one time, appear conciliatory instead of self-congratulatory and remains to be seen what he proposes to other leaders tomorrow, but I'm very much afraid (I think you'd like an alternative :p ) it'll be something quite reasonable.

So an honest question. What do you expect will happen now?
The best offer Europe would ever make to Greece is now (again) off the table. Compromising further is impossible because of the political situation with Italy/Portugal/ect.
Your banks are about to run out of money. Even if you somehow keep going you will default to the ECB on the 20th.

What do you expect will happen now?
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18131 Posts
July 06 2015 13:28 GMT
#3206
On July 06 2015 21:58 Taguchi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 21:47 Acrofales wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:35 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:23 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 20:56 Taguchi wrote:
After the debt-writeoff: Continue full steam ahead with real reforms, get the state functioning properly, hire tax auditors and whatever else you need to improve tax collection, let businesses operate in a stable environment (specific numbers on taxes etc matter less than stability), so on and so forth. Implement the 70% of the MoU that Varoufakis agreed with.

Also on the list: Break the link between media and large private companies receiving state contracts (they are one and the same currently), get rid of monopolies/oligopolies... make your peace with Turkey, reunite Cyprus, attempt to deal with the mass migration issue as well as you possibly can.

The above needs to happen under any scenario. But it can only work if debt is no longer an issue. Whatever you hear about statists, commies and whatnot is hogwash. Greeks simply don't want that. Syriza was the ONLY (sane) alternative left since everyone else in the political spectrum was complicit in us getting to this point.

edit: I also like the idea of the automatic debt brake. If it looks like you're off track, slash wages, pensions, procurement and so on until you're back on track, automatically. Pretty good incentive for a government that wants to get reelected to not fuck up, no?

edit2: Also, responding to Zatic. Yes, after CCs were imposed, it is very likely that we will need to go through harsher austerity in the near term to hit various goals agreed to previously. But if the matter of the debt is settled (or a proper timetable for its settling is formally, as opposed to vaguely, agreed) I believe it'd have been worth it. Should've happened in 2010. Alas.


If Greece does set out for that I'm quite sure it would have the full support of the EU, or at least large parts of the population which would force politicians to follow.

If they do it before asking for relief then yes but not after. Greece has already broken several previous agreements, why would they keep this one?

I'm afraid this might very well be the sentiment they will have to deal with during the negotiations.


And unfortunately, completely justifiably so.

Varoufakis stepping down is the latest in Tsipras' unending bag of tricks. While I don't doubt that Varoufakis doesn't get along on a personal level with members of the Troika, stepping down now just delays negotiations even further.

How is a new finance minister supposed to step in and pick up, without significant time to learn what is happening? Not only that, but Varoufakis' parting words imply that other finmins are a bunch of children who can't see past personal dislike and do business with him, a blatant attempt. at shifting the blame for this latest delay into the Troika's lap. It is both unresponsible and stupid: it's not Germany or Holland that have to close the banks... the person who should be in a hurry to close this deal for the good of his country seems perfectly happy to sit on his hands and watch it explode. Tsipras is playing his fiddle while Athens burns around him (almost makes one wish this was happening in Italy. so as to be more poetic).


New FinMin will probably be Tsakalotos, who has been the head of the technical negotiating team since the Riga Eurogroup of April. So that should solve that major issue.

Besides, Varoufakis claimed he resigned because several FinMins wouldn't have anything to do with him.

I'm not sure what more you could expect from Tsipras to do other than calling in all other political parties today to form common ground (after winning the referendum by a landslide, at that), ousting his rockstar, provocative and beloved for most Greeks and anti-austerity people elsewhere in Europe FinMin and being scheduled to present whatever plan he has tomorrow, on the EU Summit.

The entire EU framed the referendum as something it was never intended to be, a question of IN or OUT of the euro. Tsipras NEVER alluded to that. As it became clear the NO would win comfortably many in the EU changed their tune (notably Italy's and France's PMs). And yet, you still choose to blame Tsipras for everything. It was a regime change operation and it failed (you'd rather Tsipras just folded and left but he's allowed to fight back you know, especially when his electorate supports him). Handing Varoufakis's head on a platter is a major signal for reconciliation. If there is no reconciliation after all it would be quite a stretch to lay it on Tsipras's lap (pending tomorrow's substantive talks, naturally, but if you expect Tsipras to come out swinging from now on you'll be sorely disappointed I believe).



The only people who decided to frame it in terms of regime change was the Greek government. For the rest of Europe this has never been about ousting Syriza, although I do not doubt that Europhiles everywhere would sound a sigh of relief if Syriza were to disappear. However, this has, and always will be about reforms to the Greek polito-economical model. The troika is betting on austerity, and wants everybody to conform, including Greece. In the case of Greece, their bargaining position is really quite simple: reform, or you get no more money. Syriza doesn't want austerity. It's not quite clear how exactly they do want to get out of the economical mess, but it's not austerity. That means the troika and Syriza don't see eye to eye and cannot reach a deal that satisfies both. The problem for Syriza, is that unfortunately for them, their bargaining position is awful. The worst case scenario for most of Europe is a serious loss of image, and a period of high uncertainty when Greece crashes and burns. The worst case scenario for Greece (and thus Syriza) is to actually crash and burn. Syriza's only bargaining chip is that the Troika doesn't want to see Greece crash and burn, however they are bungling it at every chance they get, so the goodwill of the rest of Europe (see Gorsameth's statements here) is wearing really really thin, and while the political mandate for Syriza may have been reaffirmed internally, the political mandate for Schauble and Dijsselbloem is getting less by the minute. The Dutch weren't particularly enthused about further loans to Greece to start with, but as this political circus is continuing on, more and more people are okay with just pulling the plug on Greece and then salvaging whatever is left in a couple of months.

So Tsipras can frame it in terms of regime change all he likes, it was only about regime change for HIM because he negotiated himself into a terrible position in the first place, and then pulled stunt after stunt that is not helping his country AT ALL. For some reason, the Greeks don't see it (perhaps they're all deluded and think that their negotiation position is better than it is, as Tsipras consistently seems to think), and let Tsipras interpret this referendum as a "mandate to do whatever Syriza feels like doing". But the Troika don't give a shit about regime change, they just want a deal that they can take home to Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy, showing that their money is safe in Greece because reforms are happening.
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
July 06 2015 13:32 GMT
#3207
On July 06 2015 22:10 c0ldfusion wrote:
I thought everyone agree that the referendum was mainly a political play by Tsipras to solidify support and to jockey for better positioning in the negotiations.

It's interesting because one would think that the Greeks are the ones on the clock, so to speak.


Strengthening the negotiating position was part of the goal, i agree, but so was getting internal legitimacy for exiting the euro. Given the uncertainty surrounding them, it's not surprising to see the greek governmennt wanting to viabilize their contingency plan.
Bora Pain minha porra!
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
July 06 2015 13:33 GMT
#3208
On July 06 2015 22:18 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 22:09 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:03 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:58 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:47 Acrofales wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:35 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:23 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 20:56 Taguchi wrote:
After the debt-writeoff: Continue full steam ahead with real reforms, get the state functioning properly, hire tax auditors and whatever else you need to improve tax collection, let businesses operate in a stable environment (specific numbers on taxes etc matter less than stability), so on and so forth. Implement the 70% of the MoU that Varoufakis agreed with.

Also on the list: Break the link between media and large private companies receiving state contracts (they are one and the same currently), get rid of monopolies/oligopolies... make your peace with Turkey, reunite Cyprus, attempt to deal with the mass migration issue as well as you possibly can.

The above needs to happen under any scenario. But it can only work if debt is no longer an issue. Whatever you hear about statists, commies and whatnot is hogwash. Greeks simply don't want that. Syriza was the ONLY (sane) alternative left since everyone else in the political spectrum was complicit in us getting to this point.

edit: I also like the idea of the automatic debt brake. If it looks like you're off track, slash wages, pensions, procurement and so on until you're back on track, automatically. Pretty good incentive for a government that wants to get reelected to not fuck up, no?

edit2: Also, responding to Zatic. Yes, after CCs were imposed, it is very likely that we will need to go through harsher austerity in the near term to hit various goals agreed to previously. But if the matter of the debt is settled (or a proper timetable for its settling is formally, as opposed to vaguely, agreed) I believe it'd have been worth it. Should've happened in 2010. Alas.


If Greece does set out for that I'm quite sure it would have the full support of the EU, or at least large parts of the population which would force politicians to follow.

If they do it before asking for relief then yes but not after. Greece has already broken several previous agreements, why would they keep this one?

I'm afraid this might very well be the sentiment they will have to deal with during the negotiations.


And unfortunately, completely justifiably so.

Varoufakis stepping down is the latest in Tsipras' unending bag of tricks. While I don't doubt that Varoufakis doesn't get along on a personal level with members of the Troika, stepping down now just delays negotiations even further.

How is a new finance minister supposed to step in and pick up, without significant time to learn what is happening? Not only that, but Varoufakis' parting words imply that other finmins are a bunch of children who can't see past personal dislike and do business with him, a blatant attempt. at shifting the blame for this latest delay into the Troika's lap. It is both unresponsible and stupid: it's not Germany or Holland that have to close the banks... the person who should be in a hurry to close this deal for the good of his country seems perfectly happy to sit on his hands and watch it explode. Tsipras is playing his fiddle while Athens burns around him (almost makes one wish this was happening in Italy. so as to be more poetic).


New FinMin will probably be Tsakalotos, who has been the head of the technical negotiating team since the Riga Eurogroup of April. So that should solve that major issue.

Besides, Varoufakis claimed he resigned because several FinMins wouldn't have anything to do with him.

I'm not sure what more you could expect from Tsipras to do other than calling in all other political parties today to form common ground (after winning the referendum by a landslide, at that), ousting his rockstar, provocative and beloved for most Greeks and anti-austerity people elsewhere in Europe FinMin and being scheduled to present whatever plan he has tomorrow, on the EU Summit.

The entire EU framed the referendum as something it was never intended to be, a question of IN or OUT of the euro. Tsipras NEVER alluded to that. As it became clear the NO would win comfortably many in the EU changed their tune (notably Italy's and France's PMs). And yet, you still choose to blame Tsipras for everything. It was a regime change operation and it failed (you'd rather Tsipras just folded and left but he's allowed to fight back you know, especially when his electorate supports him). Handing Varoufakis's head on a platter is a major signal for reconciliation. If there is no reconciliation after all it would be quite a stretch to lay it on Tsipras's lap (pending tomorrow's substantive talks, naturally, but if you expect Tsipras to come out swinging from now on you'll be sorely disappointed I believe).

The referendum was framed that way because the actual question of the referendum was useless.
The deal mentioned in the referendum was off the table. It was for the June 30th package. The deadline has passed.
The actual referendum wasn't worth the paper it was printed on and that was obvious to everyone to moment the referendum was announced.


All true. But the real question was whether Tsipras would deal with Europe, or someone else. Europe pushed for someone else (heavy-handedly and you're pretty lucky not to be able to witness the horrible media campaign for YES here - seriously I wish no one has to ever go through this sort of fearmongering propaganda), aka regime change. But this didn't materialize. And Tsipras's move has been to a) confer with the leaders of the other major political parties (the ones that supported the YES and that Europe pushed for, same people that governed Greece for 40 years, make of that what you will), b) replace Varoufakis, c) not mention the word drachma even one time, appear conciliatory instead of self-congratulatory and remains to be seen what he proposes to other leaders tomorrow, but I'm very much afraid (I think you'd like an alternative :p ) it'll be something quite reasonable.

So an honest question. What do you expect will happen now?
The best offer Europe would ever make to Greece is now (again) off the table. Compromising further is impossible because of the political situation with Italy/Portugal/ect.
Your banks are about to run out of money. Even if you somehow keep going you will default to the ECB on the 20th.

What do you expect will happen now?


Option 1: Worse deal on the cuts side but with debt relief and proper financing.
Option 2: Grexit, but financed. No chaos.
Option 3: Grexit, chaotic.

Given basic logic, option 3 is off the table even for Schaeuble, who I believe would opt for option 2. Option 1 is the most prudent but it is possible that politicians fuck it up.

Options 2 and 3 signal the unraveling of the EZ, since it would have proved incapable of dealing with a major crisis. No dissenters allowed doesn't exactly fill one with confidence that this will be a construct that appeals to normal people everywhere. European electorates are stirred up already as it is, putting the boot down won't solve the problems. Then again, I am aware that similar things were said about the impossibility of going to war prior to 1914 and those proved totally false, so...

Oh well. Life goes on, whatever happens.
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
July 06 2015 13:36 GMT
#3209
On July 06 2015 22:28 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 21:58 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:47 Acrofales wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:35 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:23 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 20:56 Taguchi wrote:
After the debt-writeoff: Continue full steam ahead with real reforms, get the state functioning properly, hire tax auditors and whatever else you need to improve tax collection, let businesses operate in a stable environment (specific numbers on taxes etc matter less than stability), so on and so forth. Implement the 70% of the MoU that Varoufakis agreed with.

Also on the list: Break the link between media and large private companies receiving state contracts (they are one and the same currently), get rid of monopolies/oligopolies... make your peace with Turkey, reunite Cyprus, attempt to deal with the mass migration issue as well as you possibly can.

The above needs to happen under any scenario. But it can only work if debt is no longer an issue. Whatever you hear about statists, commies and whatnot is hogwash. Greeks simply don't want that. Syriza was the ONLY (sane) alternative left since everyone else in the political spectrum was complicit in us getting to this point.

edit: I also like the idea of the automatic debt brake. If it looks like you're off track, slash wages, pensions, procurement and so on until you're back on track, automatically. Pretty good incentive for a government that wants to get reelected to not fuck up, no?

edit2: Also, responding to Zatic. Yes, after CCs were imposed, it is very likely that we will need to go through harsher austerity in the near term to hit various goals agreed to previously. But if the matter of the debt is settled (or a proper timetable for its settling is formally, as opposed to vaguely, agreed) I believe it'd have been worth it. Should've happened in 2010. Alas.


If Greece does set out for that I'm quite sure it would have the full support of the EU, or at least large parts of the population which would force politicians to follow.

If they do it before asking for relief then yes but not after. Greece has already broken several previous agreements, why would they keep this one?

I'm afraid this might very well be the sentiment they will have to deal with during the negotiations.


And unfortunately, completely justifiably so.

Varoufakis stepping down is the latest in Tsipras' unending bag of tricks. While I don't doubt that Varoufakis doesn't get along on a personal level with members of the Troika, stepping down now just delays negotiations even further.

How is a new finance minister supposed to step in and pick up, without significant time to learn what is happening? Not only that, but Varoufakis' parting words imply that other finmins are a bunch of children who can't see past personal dislike and do business with him, a blatant attempt. at shifting the blame for this latest delay into the Troika's lap. It is both unresponsible and stupid: it's not Germany or Holland that have to close the banks... the person who should be in a hurry to close this deal for the good of his country seems perfectly happy to sit on his hands and watch it explode. Tsipras is playing his fiddle while Athens burns around him (almost makes one wish this was happening in Italy. so as to be more poetic).


New FinMin will probably be Tsakalotos, who has been the head of the technical negotiating team since the Riga Eurogroup of April. So that should solve that major issue.

Besides, Varoufakis claimed he resigned because several FinMins wouldn't have anything to do with him.

I'm not sure what more you could expect from Tsipras to do other than calling in all other political parties today to form common ground (after winning the referendum by a landslide, at that), ousting his rockstar, provocative and beloved for most Greeks and anti-austerity people elsewhere in Europe FinMin and being scheduled to present whatever plan he has tomorrow, on the EU Summit.

The entire EU framed the referendum as something it was never intended to be, a question of IN or OUT of the euro. Tsipras NEVER alluded to that. As it became clear the NO would win comfortably many in the EU changed their tune (notably Italy's and France's PMs). And yet, you still choose to blame Tsipras for everything. It was a regime change operation and it failed (you'd rather Tsipras just folded and left but he's allowed to fight back you know, especially when his electorate supports him). Handing Varoufakis's head on a platter is a major signal for reconciliation. If there is no reconciliation after all it would be quite a stretch to lay it on Tsipras's lap (pending tomorrow's substantive talks, naturally, but if you expect Tsipras to come out swinging from now on you'll be sorely disappointed I believe).

Syriza doesn't want austerity. It's not quite clear how exactly they do want to get out of the economical mess, but it's not austerity.


I am sorry, I will not read the rest of it. Did you actually ever read Syriza's proposals before they called the referendum?
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21962 Posts
July 06 2015 13:38 GMT
#3210
On July 06 2015 22:33 Taguchi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 22:18 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:09 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:03 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:58 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:47 Acrofales wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:35 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:23 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 20:56 Taguchi wrote:
After the debt-writeoff: Continue full steam ahead with real reforms, get the state functioning properly, hire tax auditors and whatever else you need to improve tax collection, let businesses operate in a stable environment (specific numbers on taxes etc matter less than stability), so on and so forth. Implement the 70% of the MoU that Varoufakis agreed with.

Also on the list: Break the link between media and large private companies receiving state contracts (they are one and the same currently), get rid of monopolies/oligopolies... make your peace with Turkey, reunite Cyprus, attempt to deal with the mass migration issue as well as you possibly can.

The above needs to happen under any scenario. But it can only work if debt is no longer an issue. Whatever you hear about statists, commies and whatnot is hogwash. Greeks simply don't want that. Syriza was the ONLY (sane) alternative left since everyone else in the political spectrum was complicit in us getting to this point.

edit: I also like the idea of the automatic debt brake. If it looks like you're off track, slash wages, pensions, procurement and so on until you're back on track, automatically. Pretty good incentive for a government that wants to get reelected to not fuck up, no?

edit2: Also, responding to Zatic. Yes, after CCs were imposed, it is very likely that we will need to go through harsher austerity in the near term to hit various goals agreed to previously. But if the matter of the debt is settled (or a proper timetable for its settling is formally, as opposed to vaguely, agreed) I believe it'd have been worth it. Should've happened in 2010. Alas.


If Greece does set out for that I'm quite sure it would have the full support of the EU, or at least large parts of the population which would force politicians to follow.

If they do it before asking for relief then yes but not after. Greece has already broken several previous agreements, why would they keep this one?

I'm afraid this might very well be the sentiment they will have to deal with during the negotiations.


And unfortunately, completely justifiably so.

Varoufakis stepping down is the latest in Tsipras' unending bag of tricks. While I don't doubt that Varoufakis doesn't get along on a personal level with members of the Troika, stepping down now just delays negotiations even further.

How is a new finance minister supposed to step in and pick up, without significant time to learn what is happening? Not only that, but Varoufakis' parting words imply that other finmins are a bunch of children who can't see past personal dislike and do business with him, a blatant attempt. at shifting the blame for this latest delay into the Troika's lap. It is both unresponsible and stupid: it's not Germany or Holland that have to close the banks... the person who should be in a hurry to close this deal for the good of his country seems perfectly happy to sit on his hands and watch it explode. Tsipras is playing his fiddle while Athens burns around him (almost makes one wish this was happening in Italy. so as to be more poetic).


New FinMin will probably be Tsakalotos, who has been the head of the technical negotiating team since the Riga Eurogroup of April. So that should solve that major issue.

Besides, Varoufakis claimed he resigned because several FinMins wouldn't have anything to do with him.

I'm not sure what more you could expect from Tsipras to do other than calling in all other political parties today to form common ground (after winning the referendum by a landslide, at that), ousting his rockstar, provocative and beloved for most Greeks and anti-austerity people elsewhere in Europe FinMin and being scheduled to present whatever plan he has tomorrow, on the EU Summit.

The entire EU framed the referendum as something it was never intended to be, a question of IN or OUT of the euro. Tsipras NEVER alluded to that. As it became clear the NO would win comfortably many in the EU changed their tune (notably Italy's and France's PMs). And yet, you still choose to blame Tsipras for everything. It was a regime change operation and it failed (you'd rather Tsipras just folded and left but he's allowed to fight back you know, especially when his electorate supports him). Handing Varoufakis's head on a platter is a major signal for reconciliation. If there is no reconciliation after all it would be quite a stretch to lay it on Tsipras's lap (pending tomorrow's substantive talks, naturally, but if you expect Tsipras to come out swinging from now on you'll be sorely disappointed I believe).

The referendum was framed that way because the actual question of the referendum was useless.
The deal mentioned in the referendum was off the table. It was for the June 30th package. The deadline has passed.
The actual referendum wasn't worth the paper it was printed on and that was obvious to everyone to moment the referendum was announced.


All true. But the real question was whether Tsipras would deal with Europe, or someone else. Europe pushed for someone else (heavy-handedly and you're pretty lucky not to be able to witness the horrible media campaign for YES here - seriously I wish no one has to ever go through this sort of fearmongering propaganda), aka regime change. But this didn't materialize. And Tsipras's move has been to a) confer with the leaders of the other major political parties (the ones that supported the YES and that Europe pushed for, same people that governed Greece for 40 years, make of that what you will), b) replace Varoufakis, c) not mention the word drachma even one time, appear conciliatory instead of self-congratulatory and remains to be seen what he proposes to other leaders tomorrow, but I'm very much afraid (I think you'd like an alternative :p ) it'll be something quite reasonable.

So an honest question. What do you expect will happen now?
The best offer Europe would ever make to Greece is now (again) off the table. Compromising further is impossible because of the political situation with Italy/Portugal/ect.
Your banks are about to run out of money. Even if you somehow keep going you will default to the ECB on the 20th.

What do you expect will happen now?


Option 1: Worse deal on the cuts side but with debt relief and proper financing.
Option 2: Grexit, but financed. No chaos.
Option 3: Grexit, chaotic.

Given basic logic, option 3 is off the table even for Schaeuble, who I believe would opt for option 2. Option 1 is the most prudent but it is possible that politicians fuck it up.

Options 2 and 3 signal the unraveling of the EZ, since it would have proved incapable of dealing with a major crisis. No dissenters allowed doesn't exactly fill one with confidence that this will be a construct that appeals to normal people everywhere. European electorates are stirred up already as it is, putting the boot down won't solve the problems. Then again, I am aware that similar things were said about the impossibility of going to war prior to 1914 and those proved totally false, so...

Oh well. Life goes on, whatever happens.

Option 1 is a non-starter for numerous reasons already mentioned. Option 2 would be throwing money with 0 return chance. not happening either, the only finance during a Grexit would be to the rest of the Eurozone to limit damage.

Hope your happy that your government forced option 3.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
lord_nibbler
Profile Joined March 2004
Germany591 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-06 14:03:51
July 06 2015 13:54 GMT
#3211
On July 06 2015 18:07 Taguchi wrote:
... under the troika the Greek tax collection agency was left with ~200 people who were supposed to check businesses across the entire country. Because the government was barred from hiring new personnel, as part of the cuts it had to go through to 'reform'.

This is such a pathetic excuse. Are you guys toddlers? Ever heard of the word 'ownership'?
You are in big trouble close to default (or 2 years beyond it depending on who you ask) and you still don't face your problems head on.

In case you have not noticed, Greece has to many civil servants. So of course you should not hire anyone new. That you view this a an evil 'demand' from outside and did not came to the conclusion by yourself is quite telling.

So how about for example moving civil servant jobs around. Get rid of some posts in other departments and add to the tax collection branch. Anybody who as a problem with that gets the boot, its called 'win-win' (yes it is hard on individual people, but times are though and you are in a crisis).
Or maybe get 'creative', come up with an unemployed job training program, that teaches tax-collecting practices on real-world examples. Tens of thousands of 'deputy sheriffs' would surely bring some money into the coffers.
Your boat is sinking and after 5 years you still waste your time with technicalities? For fucks sake...
Just defy the troika and set up the system. And if they still throw a tantrum later and demand that you take it back, then you get the European public involved. Because by that point you will have 99% of the people on your side (but not before you have not even tried it).
That is taking ownership of your own faith.
But no, "this evil troika always makes us do evil stuff and then that stuff does not even work", woe is us.
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-06 14:01:36
July 06 2015 13:57 GMT
#3212
On July 06 2015 22:54 lord_nibbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 18:07 Taguchi wrote:
... under the troika the Greek tax collection agency was left with ~200 people who were supposed to check businesses across the entire country. Because the government was barred from hiring new personnel, as part of the cuts it had to go through to 'reform'.

This is such a pathetic excuse. Are you guys toddlers? Ever heard of the word 'ownership'?
You are in big trouble close to default (or 2 years beyond it depending on who you ask) and you still don't face your problems head on.

In case you have not noticed, Greece has to many civil servants. So of course you should not hire anyone new. That you view this a an evil 'demand' from outside and did not came to the conclusion by yourself is quite telling.

So how about for example moving civil servant jobs around. Get rid of some posts in other departments and add to the tax collection branch. Anybody who as a problem with that gets the boot, its called 'win-win' (yes it is hard on individual people, but times are though and you are in a crisis).
Or maybe get 'creative', come up with an unemployed job training program, that teaches tax-collecting practices on real-world examples. Tens of thousands of 'deputy sheriffs' would surely bring some money into the coffers.
Your boat is sinking and after 5 years you still waste your time with technicalities? For fucks sake...
Just defy the troika and set up the system. And if they still throwing a tantrum later and demand that you take it back, then you get the European public involved. Because by that point you will have 99% of the people on your side (but not before you have not even tried it).
That is taking ownership of your own faith.


You realize that, under the troika, the Greek government could not make decisions like this on its own, right?

On July 06 2015 22:38 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 22:33 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:18 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:09 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:03 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:58 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:47 Acrofales wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:35 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On July 06 2015 21:23 maartendq wrote:
[quote]
If Greece does set out for that I'm quite sure it would have the full support of the EU, or at least large parts of the population which would force politicians to follow.

If they do it before asking for relief then yes but not after. Greece has already broken several previous agreements, why would they keep this one?

I'm afraid this might very well be the sentiment they will have to deal with during the negotiations.


And unfortunately, completely justifiably so.

Varoufakis stepping down is the latest in Tsipras' unending bag of tricks. While I don't doubt that Varoufakis doesn't get along on a personal level with members of the Troika, stepping down now just delays negotiations even further.

How is a new finance minister supposed to step in and pick up, without significant time to learn what is happening? Not only that, but Varoufakis' parting words imply that other finmins are a bunch of children who can't see past personal dislike and do business with him, a blatant attempt. at shifting the blame for this latest delay into the Troika's lap. It is both unresponsible and stupid: it's not Germany or Holland that have to close the banks... the person who should be in a hurry to close this deal for the good of his country seems perfectly happy to sit on his hands and watch it explode. Tsipras is playing his fiddle while Athens burns around him (almost makes one wish this was happening in Italy. so as to be more poetic).


New FinMin will probably be Tsakalotos, who has been the head of the technical negotiating team since the Riga Eurogroup of April. So that should solve that major issue.

Besides, Varoufakis claimed he resigned because several FinMins wouldn't have anything to do with him.

I'm not sure what more you could expect from Tsipras to do other than calling in all other political parties today to form common ground (after winning the referendum by a landslide, at that), ousting his rockstar, provocative and beloved for most Greeks and anti-austerity people elsewhere in Europe FinMin and being scheduled to present whatever plan he has tomorrow, on the EU Summit.

The entire EU framed the referendum as something it was never intended to be, a question of IN or OUT of the euro. Tsipras NEVER alluded to that. As it became clear the NO would win comfortably many in the EU changed their tune (notably Italy's and France's PMs). And yet, you still choose to blame Tsipras for everything. It was a regime change operation and it failed (you'd rather Tsipras just folded and left but he's allowed to fight back you know, especially when his electorate supports him). Handing Varoufakis's head on a platter is a major signal for reconciliation. If there is no reconciliation after all it would be quite a stretch to lay it on Tsipras's lap (pending tomorrow's substantive talks, naturally, but if you expect Tsipras to come out swinging from now on you'll be sorely disappointed I believe).

The referendum was framed that way because the actual question of the referendum was useless.
The deal mentioned in the referendum was off the table. It was for the June 30th package. The deadline has passed.
The actual referendum wasn't worth the paper it was printed on and that was obvious to everyone to moment the referendum was announced.


All true. But the real question was whether Tsipras would deal with Europe, or someone else. Europe pushed for someone else (heavy-handedly and you're pretty lucky not to be able to witness the horrible media campaign for YES here - seriously I wish no one has to ever go through this sort of fearmongering propaganda), aka regime change. But this didn't materialize. And Tsipras's move has been to a) confer with the leaders of the other major political parties (the ones that supported the YES and that Europe pushed for, same people that governed Greece for 40 years, make of that what you will), b) replace Varoufakis, c) not mention the word drachma even one time, appear conciliatory instead of self-congratulatory and remains to be seen what he proposes to other leaders tomorrow, but I'm very much afraid (I think you'd like an alternative :p ) it'll be something quite reasonable.

So an honest question. What do you expect will happen now?
The best offer Europe would ever make to Greece is now (again) off the table. Compromising further is impossible because of the political situation with Italy/Portugal/ect.
Your banks are about to run out of money. Even if you somehow keep going you will default to the ECB on the 20th.

What do you expect will happen now?


Option 1: Worse deal on the cuts side but with debt relief and proper financing.
Option 2: Grexit, but financed. No chaos.
Option 3: Grexit, chaotic.

Given basic logic, option 3 is off the table even for Schaeuble, who I believe would opt for option 2. Option 1 is the most prudent but it is possible that politicians fuck it up.

Options 2 and 3 signal the unraveling of the EZ, since it would have proved incapable of dealing with a major crisis. No dissenters allowed doesn't exactly fill one with confidence that this will be a construct that appeals to normal people everywhere. European electorates are stirred up already as it is, putting the boot down won't solve the problems. Then again, I am aware that similar things were said about the impossibility of going to war prior to 1914 and those proved totally false, so...

Oh well. Life goes on, whatever happens.

Option 1 is a non-starter for numerous reasons already mentioned. Option 2 would be throwing money with 0 return chance. not happening either, the only finance during a Grexit would be to the rest of the Eurozone to limit damage.

Hope your happy that your government forced option 3.


You could've just written 'and fuck you too', you know. I realize it's fruitless to talk to you about why nations around the world generally intervene to stabilize dangerous situations, always acting for the benefit of their own interests. You will have to settle for being annoyed in the very near future, or (to the detriment of all) reflective of your current attitude in the far future.
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
maartendq
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Belgium3115 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-06 13:59:56
July 06 2015 13:59 GMT
#3213
On July 06 2015 22:54 lord_nibbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 18:07 Taguchi wrote:
... under the troika the Greek tax collection agency was left with ~200 people who were supposed to check businesses across the entire country. Because the government was barred from hiring new personnel, as part of the cuts it had to go through to 'reform'.

This is such a pathetic excuse. Are you guys toddlers? Ever heard of the word 'ownership'?
You are in big trouble close to default (or 2 years beyond it depending on who you ask) and you still don't face your problems head on.

In case you have not noticed, Greece has to many civil servants. So of course you should not hire anyone new. That you view this a an evil 'demand' from outside and did not came to the conclusion by yourself is quite telling.

So how about for example moving civil servant jobs around. Get rid of some posts in other departments and add to the tax collection branch. Anybody who as a problem with that gets the boot, its called 'win-win' (yes it is hard on individual people, but times are though and you are in a crisis).
Or maybe get 'creative', come up with an unemployed job training program, that teaches tax-collecting practices on real-world examples. Tens of thousands of 'deputy sheriffs' would surely bring some money into the coffers.
Your boat is sinking and after 5 years you still waste your time with technicalities? For fucks sake...
Just defy the troika and set up the system. And if they still throwing a tantrum later and demand that you take it back, then you get the European public involved. Because by that point you will have 99% of the people on your side (but not before you have not even tried it).
That is taking ownership of your own faith.




I don't really get it either. Greece has more public servants than it could ever possibly and realistically need, so it could easily move around some of them into tax collection (after training, of course).

Also, why did Greece fire tax collectors in the first place? Aren't there any other, significantly less important braches that could be closed off?
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-07-06 14:03:05
July 06 2015 14:02 GMT
#3214
On July 06 2015 22:59 maartendq wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 22:54 lord_nibbler wrote:
On July 06 2015 18:07 Taguchi wrote:
... under the troika the Greek tax collection agency was left with ~200 people who were supposed to check businesses across the entire country. Because the government was barred from hiring new personnel, as part of the cuts it had to go through to 'reform'.

This is such a pathetic excuse. Are you guys toddlers? Ever heard of the word 'ownership'?
You are in big trouble close to default (or 2 years beyond it depending on who you ask) and you still don't face your problems head on.

In case you have not noticed, Greece has to many civil servants. So of course you should not hire anyone new. That you view this a an evil 'demand' from outside and did not came to the conclusion by yourself is quite telling.

So how about for example moving civil servant jobs around. Get rid of some posts in other departments and add to the tax collection branch. Anybody who as a problem with that gets the boot, its called 'win-win' (yes it is hard on individual people, but times are though and you are in a crisis).
Or maybe get 'creative', come up with an unemployed job training program, that teaches tax-collecting practices on real-world examples. Tens of thousands of 'deputy sheriffs' would surely bring some money into the coffers.
Your boat is sinking and after 5 years you still waste your time with technicalities? For fucks sake...
Just defy the troika and set up the system. And if they still throwing a tantrum later and demand that you take it back, then you get the European public involved. Because by that point you will have 99% of the people on your side (but not before you have not even tried it).
That is taking ownership of your own faith.




I don't really get it either. Greece has more public servants than it could ever possibly and realistically need, so it could easily move around some of them into tax collection (after training, of course).

Also, why did Greece fire tax collectors in the first place? Aren't there any other, significantly less important braches that could be closed off?


Dude. You don't just get 'some training' and join the IRS auditor department. These are the people on the field conducting checks, not paper pushers.
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
lord_nibbler
Profile Joined March 2004
Germany591 Posts
July 06 2015 14:02 GMT
#3215
On July 06 2015 22:57 Taguchi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 22:54 lord_nibbler wrote:
On July 06 2015 18:07 Taguchi wrote:
... under the troika the Greek tax collection agency was left with ~200 people who were supposed to check businesses across the entire country. Because the government was barred from hiring new personnel, as part of the cuts it had to go through to 'reform'.

This is such a pathetic excuse. Are you guys toddlers? Ever heard of the word 'ownership'?
You are in big trouble close to default (or 2 years beyond it depending on who you ask) and you still don't face your problems head on.

In case you have not noticed, Greece has to many civil servants. So of course you should not hire anyone new. That you view this a an evil 'demand' from outside and did not came to the conclusion by yourself is quite telling.

So how about for example moving civil servant jobs around. Get rid of some posts in other departments and add to the tax collection branch. Anybody who as a problem with that gets the boot, its called 'win-win' (yes it is hard on individual people, but times are though and you are in a crisis).
Or maybe get 'creative', come up with an unemployed job training program, that teaches tax-collecting practices on real-world examples. Tens of thousands of 'deputy sheriffs' would surely bring some money into the coffers.
Your boat is sinking and after 5 years you still waste your time with technicalities? For fucks sake...
Just defy the troika and set up the system. And if they still throwing a tantrum later and demand that you take it back, then you get the European public involved. Because by that point you will have 99% of the people on your side (but not before you have not even tried it).
That is taking ownership of your own faith.


You realize that, under the troika, the Greek government could not make decisions like this on its own, right?
Of course it can! You can default any time, you can hold referendums every day, if you want, nobody is stopping you. Quit pretending.
Furikawari
Profile Joined February 2014
France2522 Posts
July 06 2015 14:05 GMT
#3216
On July 06 2015 22:59 maartendq wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 22:54 lord_nibbler wrote:
On July 06 2015 18:07 Taguchi wrote:
... under the troika the Greek tax collection agency was left with ~200 people who were supposed to check businesses across the entire country. Because the government was barred from hiring new personnel, as part of the cuts it had to go through to 'reform'.

This is such a pathetic excuse. Are you guys toddlers? Ever heard of the word 'ownership'?
You are in big trouble close to default (or 2 years beyond it depending on who you ask) and you still don't face your problems head on.

In case you have not noticed, Greece has to many civil servants. So of course you should not hire anyone new. That you view this a an evil 'demand' from outside and did not came to the conclusion by yourself is quite telling.

So how about for example moving civil servant jobs around. Get rid of some posts in other departments and add to the tax collection branch. Anybody who as a problem with that gets the boot, its called 'win-win' (yes it is hard on individual people, but times are though and you are in a crisis).
Or maybe get 'creative', come up with an unemployed job training program, that teaches tax-collecting practices on real-world examples. Tens of thousands of 'deputy sheriffs' would surely bring some money into the coffers.
Your boat is sinking and after 5 years you still waste your time with technicalities? For fucks sake...
Just defy the troika and set up the system. And if they still throwing a tantrum later and demand that you take it back, then you get the European public involved. Because by that point you will have 99% of the people on your side (but not before you have not even tried it).
That is taking ownership of your own faith.




I don't really get it either. Greece has more public servants than it could ever possibly and realistically need, so it could easily move around some of them into tax collection (after training, of course).

Also, why did Greece fire tax collectors in the first place? Aren't there any other, significantly less important braches that could be closed off?


One piece of advice: check ur facts. Really. Do. EU propaganda is strong these days.
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
July 06 2015 14:06 GMT
#3217
On July 06 2015 23:02 lord_nibbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 22:57 Taguchi wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:54 lord_nibbler wrote:
On July 06 2015 18:07 Taguchi wrote:
... under the troika the Greek tax collection agency was left with ~200 people who were supposed to check businesses across the entire country. Because the government was barred from hiring new personnel, as part of the cuts it had to go through to 'reform'.

This is such a pathetic excuse. Are you guys toddlers? Ever heard of the word 'ownership'?
You are in big trouble close to default (or 2 years beyond it depending on who you ask) and you still don't face your problems head on.

In case you have not noticed, Greece has to many civil servants. So of course you should not hire anyone new. That you view this a an evil 'demand' from outside and did not came to the conclusion by yourself is quite telling.

So how about for example moving civil servant jobs around. Get rid of some posts in other departments and add to the tax collection branch. Anybody who as a problem with that gets the boot, its called 'win-win' (yes it is hard on individual people, but times are though and you are in a crisis).
Or maybe get 'creative', come up with an unemployed job training program, that teaches tax-collecting practices on real-world examples. Tens of thousands of 'deputy sheriffs' would surely bring some money into the coffers.
Your boat is sinking and after 5 years you still waste your time with technicalities? For fucks sake...
Just defy the troika and set up the system. And if they still throwing a tantrum later and demand that you take it back, then you get the European public involved. Because by that point you will have 99% of the people on your side (but not before you have not even tried it).
That is taking ownership of your own faith.


You realize that, under the troika, the Greek government could not make decisions like this on its own, right?
Of course it can! You can default any time, you can hold referendums every day, if you want, nobody is stopping you. Quit pretending.


Again. Greece, under the MoU, could not unilaterally make decisions like the ones you wanted it to make. Such unilateral decisions would break the MoU. Why is this so hard to get?

Simpler english: Greece deciding to do stuff breaks contract terms. When Syriza did it, your government decried them. The actual deal that Syriza wound up proposing in the end offered the rollback of various laws passed in this 5 month period as one of the terms.
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
c0ldfusion
Profile Joined October 2010
United States8293 Posts
July 06 2015 14:06 GMT
#3218
On July 06 2015 23:05 Furikawari wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 22:59 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:54 lord_nibbler wrote:
On July 06 2015 18:07 Taguchi wrote:
... under the troika the Greek tax collection agency was left with ~200 people who were supposed to check businesses across the entire country. Because the government was barred from hiring new personnel, as part of the cuts it had to go through to 'reform'.

This is such a pathetic excuse. Are you guys toddlers? Ever heard of the word 'ownership'?
You are in big trouble close to default (or 2 years beyond it depending on who you ask) and you still don't face your problems head on.

In case you have not noticed, Greece has to many civil servants. So of course you should not hire anyone new. That you view this a an evil 'demand' from outside and did not came to the conclusion by yourself is quite telling.

So how about for example moving civil servant jobs around. Get rid of some posts in other departments and add to the tax collection branch. Anybody who as a problem with that gets the boot, its called 'win-win' (yes it is hard on individual people, but times are though and you are in a crisis).
Or maybe get 'creative', come up with an unemployed job training program, that teaches tax-collecting practices on real-world examples. Tens of thousands of 'deputy sheriffs' would surely bring some money into the coffers.
Your boat is sinking and after 5 years you still waste your time with technicalities? For fucks sake...
Just defy the troika and set up the system. And if they still throwing a tantrum later and demand that you take it back, then you get the European public involved. Because by that point you will have 99% of the people on your side (but not before you have not even tried it).
That is taking ownership of your own faith.




I don't really get it either. Greece has more public servants than it could ever possibly and realistically need, so it could easily move around some of them into tax collection (after training, of course).

Also, why did Greece fire tax collectors in the first place? Aren't there any other, significantly less important braches that could be closed off?


One piece of advice: check ur facts. Really. Do. EU propaganda is strong these days.


What are you trying to say exactly?
maartendq
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Belgium3115 Posts
July 06 2015 14:06 GMT
#3219
On July 06 2015 23:02 Taguchi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 22:59 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:54 lord_nibbler wrote:
On July 06 2015 18:07 Taguchi wrote:
... under the troika the Greek tax collection agency was left with ~200 people who were supposed to check businesses across the entire country. Because the government was barred from hiring new personnel, as part of the cuts it had to go through to 'reform'.

This is such a pathetic excuse. Are you guys toddlers? Ever heard of the word 'ownership'?
You are in big trouble close to default (or 2 years beyond it depending on who you ask) and you still don't face your problems head on.

In case you have not noticed, Greece has to many civil servants. So of course you should not hire anyone new. That you view this a an evil 'demand' from outside and did not came to the conclusion by yourself is quite telling.

So how about for example moving civil servant jobs around. Get rid of some posts in other departments and add to the tax collection branch. Anybody who as a problem with that gets the boot, its called 'win-win' (yes it is hard on individual people, but times are though and you are in a crisis).
Or maybe get 'creative', come up with an unemployed job training program, that teaches tax-collecting practices on real-world examples. Tens of thousands of 'deputy sheriffs' would surely bring some money into the coffers.
Your boat is sinking and after 5 years you still waste your time with technicalities? For fucks sake...
Just defy the troika and set up the system. And if they still throwing a tantrum later and demand that you take it back, then you get the European public involved. Because by that point you will have 99% of the people on your side (but not before you have not even tried it).
That is taking ownership of your own faith.




I don't really get it either. Greece has more public servants than it could ever possibly and realistically need, so it could easily move around some of them into tax collection (after training, of course).

Also, why did Greece fire tax collectors in the first place? Aren't there any other, significantly less important braches that could be closed off?


Dude. You don't just get 'some training' and join the IRS auditor department. These are the people on the field conducting checks, not paper pushers.

Still begs the question why Greece didn't just fire the paper pushers instead of the auditors. I doubt the Troika would have made much of a fuss against that, on the contrary.
Furikawari
Profile Joined February 2014
France2522 Posts
July 06 2015 14:09 GMT
#3220
On July 06 2015 23:06 c0ldfusion wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2015 23:05 Furikawari wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:59 maartendq wrote:
On July 06 2015 22:54 lord_nibbler wrote:
On July 06 2015 18:07 Taguchi wrote:
... under the troika the Greek tax collection agency was left with ~200 people who were supposed to check businesses across the entire country. Because the government was barred from hiring new personnel, as part of the cuts it had to go through to 'reform'.

This is such a pathetic excuse. Are you guys toddlers? Ever heard of the word 'ownership'?
You are in big trouble close to default (or 2 years beyond it depending on who you ask) and you still don't face your problems head on.

In case you have not noticed, Greece has to many civil servants. So of course you should not hire anyone new. That you view this a an evil 'demand' from outside and did not came to the conclusion by yourself is quite telling.

So how about for example moving civil servant jobs around. Get rid of some posts in other departments and add to the tax collection branch. Anybody who as a problem with that gets the boot, its called 'win-win' (yes it is hard on individual people, but times are though and you are in a crisis).
Or maybe get 'creative', come up with an unemployed job training program, that teaches tax-collecting practices on real-world examples. Tens of thousands of 'deputy sheriffs' would surely bring some money into the coffers.
Your boat is sinking and after 5 years you still waste your time with technicalities? For fucks sake...
Just defy the troika and set up the system. And if they still throwing a tantrum later and demand that you take it back, then you get the European public involved. Because by that point you will have 99% of the people on your side (but not before you have not even tried it).
That is taking ownership of your own faith.




I don't really get it either. Greece has more public servants than it could ever possibly and realistically need, so it could easily move around some of them into tax collection (after training, of course).

Also, why did Greece fire tax collectors in the first place? Aren't there any other, significantly less important braches that could be closed off?


One piece of advice: check ur facts. Really. Do. EU propaganda is strong these days.


What are you trying to say exactly?


A lot of ppl are claiming bullshit on public services numbers for example. But they never actually checked those numbers.
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