EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1336
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12318 Posts
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Sent.
Poland9244 Posts
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Dav1oN
Ukraine3164 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21947 Posts
On February 27 2022 02:13 Sent. wrote: I've heard talk of Russia mostly bypassing cities instead of trying to engage in urban warfare.Yeah I was worried the biggest cities in the east will fall in like 2 or 3 days, but it looks like either Ukraine was well prepared to put up some serious resistance or the Russian command is awfully incompetent. | ||
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Vivax
22089 Posts
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Erasme
Bahamas15899 Posts
It's not like Russia would retaliate upon the families of those soldiers. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6248 Posts
On February 27 2022 01:08 Sbrubbles wrote: Yeah, from what I understand, a SWIFT ban would make it incredibly difficult for any export/import business to operate. Even if workaround systems make it possible to send and receive foreign funds, would these businesses even be able to find enough credit until they're set up, given existing sanctions? I don't know for certain, but it sounds unworkable. The Russian government can presumably prop up export industries for a time, either directly or with central bank credit. These companies will try to redirect their business, but how much product can, in practical terms, be competitively sold to China instead of Europe I also have no idea. That doesn't answer Acrofales question. He wants to know how sanctions against a central bank work not disconnecting the financial system from Swift. I am curious as well but have no idea. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Dan HH
Romania9135 Posts
On February 27 2022 02:45 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Does anyone know if Riho Terras is reliable? I know he is an EU Official but his thread on Twitter about a supposed Ukrainian Intelligence on Putin and his inner circle seems hard to believe. I wouldn't pay any mind to people claiming to know what was said by Putin at some Bond villain mountain lair meeting. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12318 Posts
On February 27 2022 02:45 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Does anyone know if Riho Terras is reliable? I know he is an EU Official but his thread on Twitter about a supposed Ukrainian Intelligence on Putin and his inner circle seems hard to believe. It's most likely unreliable, especially since it comes from Ukrainian intelligence. But I'm just commenting because I don't find the content particularly hard to believe | ||
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Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
On February 26 2022 23:37 Dav1oN wrote: Hey guys, it was one more scary night in Kharkiv (although - nothing near what happened in Kyiv), we've managed to sleep a bit better, somewhere early morning I woke up due to artillery shots, luckily it was our defense, if someone interested in what it was, here is a few videos before and after before + Show Spoiler + after + Show Spoiler + Regional city defense is doing rather well, at the moment our biggest concern is saboteur groups. We've gathered with neighbours from two mid-dense civil buildings nearby in our area for protection purposes. Feels like with every minute we're more united Our thoughts are with you... sounds like the attacks are really starting to intensify. Please take care. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On February 27 2022 02:33 Vivax wrote: Afaik Russia said that blocking swift would be seen as act of war and Germany did a quick 180 from when they said they wouldn’t approve of such a measure but apparently being neutral nowadays is not allowed. Fingers crossed we don’t go there. I don't think Russia has the gas in the tank (literally or figuratively) to treat blocking SWIFT as an act of war; what would they do, declare war on literally everyone in SWIFT opting to block them? Belgium since that's where it is based? Their military isn't exactly in a position to launch a global offensive, and in this context MAD is working against them instead of for them. It just seems unlikely. Then again, unlikely things happen. Any politicians who want to suicide their international reputation and prevent the SWIFT block will probably use this talking point to try to save their asses, though. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Russia will be disconnected from the international payment system SWIFT. The official decision has not yet been formalized, but technical preparations for the adoption and implementation of this step have already begun, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on his Facebook page. "We gnawed and gnawed and gnawed at it. All Ukrainian diplomacy worked – from the President of Ukraine to the attaché in the Ukrainian embassy. Ukrainian diplomats dedicate this victory to all defenders of Ukraine," Kuleba wrote. Sources close to negotiation process on the policy of sanctions told the Ukrainian news outlet LB.ua that after the consent of Hungary and Cyprus, only the position of Germany was preventing the disconnection of Russia from SWIFT. Such step requires the consent of all EU member states. The Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's editor, Rikard Jozwiak, has reported that Germany has also given its consent. SWIFT, which stands for Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications, is controlled by the National Bank of Belgium and central banks from the US, UK, EU, Japan, Russia, China and others. It delivers secure messages to more than 11,000 financial institutions and companies in more than 200 countries and territories. Only one country was removed from SWIFT in its history. in 2012, Iran was blocked from SWIFT as part of a series of measures aimed at curbing the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed hope that Germany and Hungary would have the courage to support the decision to disconnect Russia from SWIFT. "The blood of innocent Ukrainian men, women and children will be on the hands of those who will block Russia's disconnection from SWIFT," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said earlier. He also called on the world community to completely isolate Russia, expel ambassadors, impose an oil embargo and destroy the aggressor's economy. Source | ||
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
In a related note, has Russian government or media not been crying against the western weapon and supply aid to Ukraine at all or have I managed to filter out all of it? | ||
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
On February 27 2022 03:14 Oukka wrote: Russia isn't declaring war on anyone else while the troops are tied in Ukraine. If the estimates of troops deployed around Ukraine from past few weeks are accurate at all, it's like 75% of their active forces are tied the current war already. They'd need to mobilise reserves and crucially also equip them somehow. No chance. In a related note, has Russian government or media not been crying against the western weapon and supply aid to Ukraine at all or have I managed to filter out all of it? I can't believe that Russia has like 750k troops around Ukraine. | ||
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Dan HH
Romania9135 Posts
Germany just committed to directly supplying weapons to Ukraine. I hope the US follows suit. | ||
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xM(Z
Romania5296 Posts
(also, a lot of weird takes in here. declaring war on "the whole world" ... can't even unread it) | ||
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stink123
United States241 Posts
1. The early warning given by Western intelligence removed their element of surprise. They accurately predicted there would be an invasion, and gave tons of public warnings about it. 2. Russian forces may not be able to sustain the logistics for the invasion, with reports of low fuel and low morale. International sanctions of course, would also have an effect on this. Plus Ukraine is being supported with many modern western weapons, which neutralizes any advantage Russia has in equipment. 3. Taking and holding a city isn't that easy, especially against partisanship. The US had this problem in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Russia itself has had problems with this in previous campaigns. And as to why Putin would be invading, the thought is that his position in Russia isn't as secure as it looks, and he's in power as long as he's seen as useful and popular towards the oligarchs who control the country. That's why you see him doing these ridiculous photo ops and PR campaigns. Of course all this is obscured by the fog of war and its hard to say the extent to which any of these factors matter. And of course even if the thinking is right, the war could drag on for months or even a year. (again, like Iraq and Afghanistan). And definitely its helpful to hear what pro-Russia sources are saying for comparison, to get an idea what they're thinking. | ||
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